Every time a young star signs a contract extension, we all breathlessly mention the total guarantee. Did you hear Corbin Carroll is getting one hundred and ten million dollars? You could buy a pretty nice house with that, or several nice houses, or live comfortably for the rest of your life and set your kids up to succeed in the bargain. It’s natural to focus on something like that. It is, after all, the main part of the deal.

In almost every one of these extensions, there’s an additional feature: one or more years of team options tacked on to the end of the contract. Our collective analytical view of those tends to be more or less a shrug. “Oh, yeah, and two team options, so that’s nice,” we say, or “well, that makes sense.” I wouldn’t call our evaluations of these options particularly nuanced.

I don’t think that’s going to change on the whole, but the Carroll extension spurred me to at least delve a little deeper into the dollars and cents side of those team options. I’ve already done some work on opt outs from the player perspective, and conveniently enough, I can lift a lot of the mathematical methods from that treatment and use them to evaluate things from the team side. Read the rest of this entry »

MIAMI – You could hear the airhorns blocks away from LoanDepot Park, and the music, too: salsa, bachata, reggaeton, merengue — all blasting at artillery strike volume, echoing down the nearby residential streets lined with two-story pastel-colored houses and under the soft gray skies of a rainy Wednesday in south Florida. Small throngs of fans — women with their hair colored electric blue and cherry red, men with platinum blond dye jobs to mimic the stars of Team Rubio — became bigger clusters, all pooling around the stadium, taking over adjacent parking lots for impromptu tailgates. Everyone’s back bore the name of an icon of Caribbean baseball: CLEMENTE, GUERRERO, MARTINEZ, MACHADO, BÁEZ, SOTO, LINDOR. Tens of thousands of fans, some of whom had paid up to $400 per ticket on the secondary market just to get in the door, were here for the main event of Pool D in this World Baseball Classic: the win-or-go-home group stage finale between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.

A clarification, first: It’s not accurate to call this event the World Baseball Classic — not here, at least, in Miami, where Latin American teams made up 80% of the pool’s members. (Team Israel probably picked up plenty of excellent Spanish slang in its week-long stay.) No, this was el Mundial, because all week, this hasn’t been a baseball tournament; it’s been a beisbol tournament. Every day featured a good-sized chunk of this city’s large Dominican and Puerto Rican populations setting up shop at the park and spending close to a dozen hours partying and dancing and playing panderetas and güiros and tamboras and those ubiquitous horns. Throughout the week, the west plaza of LoanDepot Park has functioned as a fanfest space, complete with a DJ on a giant stage and access to a team store stocked full of PR and DR shirts and a beer vendor seemingly every 10 feet. Long before each game every day and well past the final out each night, this is where Puerto Rican, Dominican, and Venezuelan fans (and a handful of Nicaraguans, supporting their country that had qualified for the WBC for the first time) met, laughed, crushed 20-ounce Heineken and Stella Artois cans, and celebrated together. This was their tournament, and Wednesday night’s heavyweight prize fight between Pool D’s superpowers was as close as they could get to their own Super Bowl. Read the rest of this entry »

PHOENIX – It was a nervy affair from start to finish, but Team USA is through to the knockout stage of the World Baseball Classic. Short on big league pitchers and star power, Colombia nevertheless hung in against the U.S. thanks to excellent defense and shrewd plate discipline. But American stars Mike Trout and Mookie Betts, whose quiet tournament-opening weekend had been the source of some consternation, showed up in force when the tournament was on the line, leading the way in a 3–2 victory.

The U.S. advances as the no. 2 seed in Pool C and will face Venezuela on Friday in the quarterfinals in Miami. Colombia, who upset Julio Urías and group winner Mexico in the first game of pool play, could not make good on its early promise after losses to Canada and Great Britain. After entering Thursday with a realistic chance of advancing, Colombia not only goes home early but also finished last in the pool and will be relegated to the qualification tournament for the next WBC. Read the rest of this entry »

When Edwin Díaz fell to the LoanDepot Park turf on Wednesday night, moments after closing out one of the most exciting and important contests of the WBC so far, his injury immediately overshadowed the immense gravity of the game that had preceded it.

As with any injury to any star player, the overriding reaction was one of concern. Concern for Díaz, for his home island’s team, and for the Mets, who could be without the best relief pitcher in baseball for a long time. As of Wednesday evening, there’s little information about the severity of Díaz’s injury (per the Mets, he’ll undergo imaging tomorrow), but given the mood of his teammates and the fact that he left the field in a wheelchair, it’s understandable to fear the worst.

Mixed in with concern for the player, however, is concern for the future of the World Baseball Classic itself. Read the rest of this entry »

Before Miguel Vargas doubled in his first plate appearance of the day last Thursday, he hadn’t lifted the bat off his shoulder his first 12 times up. Nursing a pinky fracture, he was just there to track pitches. Yet initially, this “strategy” paid unanticipated dividends: through seven looks, he walked four times and struck out three times, good for a .571 OBP (albeit with a 42.9% K-rate). However, pitchers ultimately adjusted, sending Vargas back to the dugout the next five times.

Apparently, opposing managers were made privy to his no-swing approach before each game. But even if Dave Roberts didn’t tell them about it, it was in the press as early as the morning of February 27, after which three of Vargas’ walks came. My colleague Davy Andrews, recounting this misadventure, posited that some of the pitchers treated Vargas like any other foe because they were just trying to get into regular-season shape.

But Davy also suggested pitchers may have been a bit incredulous that Vargas wouldn’t swing, up there with his batting gloves on and in his crouch. The incredulity slipped away, though, in those last five looks. Zack Greinke even toyed with Vargas, tossing him a pair of eephuses (eephi?) sandwiched by two full-strength heaters (thanks to Davy for doing the GIF work so I didn’t have to):

Read the rest of this entry »

MIAMI – The assignment facing Nicaragua’s Duque Hebbert was as nerve-wracking as he could imagine. As the 21-year-old right-hander warmed up before the top of the ninth inning of Monday’s Pool D game between Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic, Juan Soto waited, watching from the on-deck circle. Up after him: 2022 AL Rookie of the Year and five-tool phenom Julio Rodríguez. Should he manage to survive both of those elite hitters, he would have to contend with six-time All-Star Manny Machado, who had homered in his last at-bat and come a combined three or four feet short of going deep twice more.

Against that terrifying trio stood Hebbert, 5-foot-9 and 170 pounds, the youngest and last man picked for a Nicaragua squad that qualified for its first-ever WBC and, as its reward, drew a spot in the tournament’s Pool of Death alongside the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela. Hebbert and his teammates came into the day with two losses in two group stage games so far; down 6–1 against the DR, that would soon become three in three. Then again, no one had expected Nicaragua to win a game in this pool, much less advance. They were in Miami with the goal of growing and getting better and putting up a respectable fight against rosters full of legends and superstars. So as Hebbert finished his warm-up throws and Soto stepped in, the task in front of him was simple yet immense: end the day on a positive note for Pool D’s resident underdogs by retiring three of the best hitters in the entire world.

Nineteen pitches, four batters and three eye-opening swinging strikeouts later, Hebbert had done more than that, going from anonymous Nicaraguan reliever to baseball’s newest viral sensation. He set Soto down with three straight strikes, the last a diving changeup that he swung right over; the future Hall of Famer flashed a smile back at the mound as he walked out of the box. Rodríguez fared no better, fouling off a 90 mph fastball and that devilish changeup before eventually whiffing on a slider down and away. Machado, too, waved through a slider and was down 0–2, only to smash a double to left, bringing up Rafael Devers. No sweat for Hebbert, who fell behind one of the majors’ top sluggers 3–1, got him to foul off two pitches, then dispatched him with — what else — a changeup to finish the inning. Read the rest of this entry »

Over the weekend, I participated in a panel at the SABR Analytics Conference in Phoenix. It was a ton of fun, and I enjoyed getting a chance to nerd out about baseball with a bunch of like-minded people. The awards show wasn’t bad, either. I look forward to Michael Baumann and I making subtle references to it the rest of the year (or maybe just me; Baumann is less arrogant than I am).

The topic of my panel, where I was joined by Yahoo Sports’ Hannah Keyser and moderator Vince Gennaro, was players we love for the 2023 season. I love Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout most for the 2023 season, but more specifically, it was about players we love who aren’t widely regarded as superstars. I came prepared; I picked two hitters and two pitchers who fit the bill.

A panel isn’t the same as a presentation, and our discussion ranged widely around these and other players (Hannah loves Wander Franco and Hunter Greene, Vince loves Dylan Cease), but I thought I’d lay out my research here as well. If you’re a frequent reader, you probably already know how much I like these guys, but it never hurts to reiterate a point. Read the rest of this entry »

Trea Turner has transformed himself into one of the best hitters in baseball. Lacking projectable power when he was drafted 13th overall in 2014 — Kiley McDaniel cited his upside as 10-12 home runs with a .420 SLG the following winter — Turner proceeded to become far more than the slash-and-burn type that many envisioned. His past three seasons have been particularly impressive. Playing with the Washington Nationals and the Los Angeles Dodgers, he posted a sparkling .316/.364/.514 line with a 139 wRC+. Moreover, his right-handed stroke has produced 87 home runs over the last four non-COVID campaigns.

Turner — now with the Philadelphia Phillies after being signed to an 11-year, $300 million contract in December, and currently playing for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic — talked hitting prior to a recent spring training game.

———

David Laurila: Let’s start with one of my favorite icebreaker questions: Do you view hitting as more of an art or more of a science?

Trea Turner: “I think it’s more of an art, but we’re trying to use science to quantify it. Sometimes guys have good swings, but then you go into a game and you can’t necessarily hit. The game is more of an art than a swing.” Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about recent WBC highlights, whether the WBC should be held more often (7:44), extensions for Corbin Carroll and Keibert Ruiz (19:50), MLB preparing to take over streaming for some teams amid the Diamond Sports bankruptcy (21:22), Trevor Bauer departing for Japan (31:17), and an Effectively Wild theme song contest (35:43), then continue their 2023 season preview series by discussing the Tampa Bay Rays (42:57) with Adam Berry of MLB.com, and the Detroit Tigers (1:15:04) with Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic, plus a Past Blast from 1980 (1:53:29) and trivia answers (1:57:34).

Audio intro: Jaquan Grant, “Baseball Rich”
Audio interstitial 1: David Lawrence, “I Wander On”
Audio interstitial 2: Camden, “You Little Tiger”
Audio outro: Gilles Cardoni, “Super 80”

Link to Puerto Rico “perfect game”
Link to Mitch Bratt story
Link to Meneses homers
Link to Zach Buchanan on Meneses
Link to Ohtani homer
Link to Ohtani strikeout
Link to story on Satoria
Link to Satoria interview
Link to Pool A tiebreak story
Link to “change my mind” meme
Link to Caribbean Series wiki
Link to Baseball World Cup wiki
Link to MLBTR on Carroll
Link to Buchanan on Carroll
Link to tweet about Carroll
Link to MLBTR on Ruiz
Link to story on Diamond and MLB
Link to MLBTR on Bauer
Link to Jim Allen on Bauer
Link to story about P-G strike
Link to union info about strike
Link to strike fund
Link to FanGraphs playoff odds
Link to FG payroll breakdown
Link to Rays offseason tracker
Link to Rays depth chart
Link to Emma B. on Brady Williams
Link to Adam’s spring preview
Link to Adam’s author archive
Link to Tigers offseason tracker
Link to Tigers depth chart
Link to Dan S. on breakout hitters
Link to Cody’s spring preview
Link to Cody on Comerica dimensions
Link to Cody on Maton
Link to Cody on injury prevention
Link to Cody on Turnbull
Link to Cody’s author archive
Link to Cody’s Tigers podcast
Link to 1980 article source
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack
Link to Ryan Nelson’s Twitter
Link to Damon on the Bananas
Link to MLBTR on Diamond
Link to EW episode on sharting
Link to Hernández tweet
Link to Shane McKeon’s Twitter
Link to Shane’s website

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