FanGraphs Baseball

Behold, a table. Does anything strike you as odd about this leaderboard?

Some of those guys are just the best relievers in baseball and have been for a while. We’ve also got a couple breakout relief aces from this season, including Brent Headrick, Erik Sabrowski, and Samy Natera Jr., who is apparently not the lead singer from Chicago. Don’t feel bad, it’s an easy mistake to make. Read the rest of this entry »

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a baseball reference in summer sci-fi flick The End of Oak Street and new reporting on players’ unwillingness to wear cups, then (32:30) discuss career years for Pete Alonso and Gabriel Moreno, Mason Miller’s changeup, Cal Raleigh’s swing change, and whether MLB will follow other leagues’ leads in establishing a tournament or trophy apart from the playoffs, before Stat Blasting (1:17:47) about the worst/least-experienced lineups ever, the most prolifically .500 teams, and the hierarchy of double-play frequency.

Audio intro: Kite Person, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Ian Phillips, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to The End of Oak Street wiki
Link to David Robert Mitchell wiki
Link to Detroit references in movie
Link to Parrish 1982 gamelog
Link to Doctor Strange Tigers reference
Link to protective cups article
Link to Luke 22:42-44
Link to Chisholm article
Link to Forbes article on JKG
Link to Time article on JKG
Link to best hitters in August
Link to on-pace leaderboard
Link to pitch run values since 2025
Link to Miller’s changeup count
Link to Cruz homer clip
Link to Miller article 1
Link to Miller article 2
Link to game theory meme
Link to Cal swing article
Link to Neil on alternate champions
Link to Neil on the NBA Cup
Link to Knicks NBA Cup decision
Link to regular-season-champion article
Link to regular-season-champion episode
Link to Yankees’ six-run win
Link to Stat Blast wiki
Link to Giants loss article 1
Link to Giants loss article 2
Link to Giants unfun fact
Link to Sam post 1
Link to Sam post 2
Link to 2022 White Sox .500 records
Link to Rochester Hop Bitters info
Link to Preston’s FB post
Link to “9 to 5” video
Link to double-play data
Link to Hembekides clip
Link to Hembekides graph
Link to Molina 3-2-8 double play
Link to Nootbaar play

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Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Dan Szymborski: The appointed time has arrived.

12:02

Dan Szymborski: I imagine he *will* get time in 2027, should he keep hitting early next year

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Oh, they do generally change quite a bit, because no two players are truly the same, and paths vary a lot

Read the rest of this entry »

Javier López faced 756 different batters while pitching for five teams from 2003-2016. Frequently employed as a lefty specialist, the sidewinding native of San Juan, Puerto Rico did so to the tune of a 3.48 ERA, 14 saves, and a 30-17 won-lost record across 839 appearances. He also earned four World Series rings. López lifted a trophy with the Boston Red Sox in 2007, and with the San Francisco Giants in 2010, 2012, and 2014.

How well does the now Giants broadcast analyst remember his matchups against the hitters he faced? Interested to find out, I recently sat down him for the latest installment of our Challenging Career Quiz series.

I began by asking which player he faced the most times. His first guess, Chase Utley, was incorrect. His second was likewise wrong — although he did get the surname right. It wasn’t Adrián González, but rather Carlos González.

What are López’s recollections of the longtime Colorado Rockies outfielder?

“What I remember about facing Cargo is that he was an absolute monster,” the pitcher-turned-broadcaster said of the 2010 NL batting champion, whom he held to just four hits and one walk in 26 plate appearances. “He had such a sweet swing. I remember giving up a monster home run to him in Colorado. I hung a breaking ball and he hit it off the facing of the second deck. He was pretty impressive.”

Bobby Abreu was the batter López faced the second-most times (24), and he also has distinct memories of him. Read the rest of this entry »

Brandon Pfaadt — former top prospect, 2023 postseason hero, recipient of a long-term extension after just one full season of big league work — lasted only three starts in the major league rotation at the beginning of 2026. After allowing 12 runs in 16 2/3 innings, the Diamondbacks had seen enough. Big contract or no, Pfaadt went off to middle relief.

Pfaadt had a 5.94 ERA and 5.37 FIP when he made his last start on April 11. In 10 bullpen outings that followed — including, it must be said, a couple very strong bulk relief stints — Pfaadt posted a 5.91 ERA and 5.47 FIP in 21 1/3 innings. The next demotion was to Triple-A Reno, an indignity for a pitcher who’d started 65 games across 2024 and 2025. Only Logan Webb and Jake Irvin had made more big league starts in that time.

Pfaadt spent less than four weeks in the minor leagues. When he came back, he went straight back into Arizona’s rotation, and immediately started pitching better than he ever had before. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I saw Aaron Ashby lean on his loopy curveball when he found himself in a jam:

Later that day, I was watching the Tigers when Drew Anderson used his own big hook to finish off an at-bat:

I’m a longtime admirer of the giant 12-to-6 curveball, a pitch that is on the decline across the majors. There’s a good reason for that – without delving into it too deeply, velocity is very important. The league-wide curveball rate is down by nearly a quarter over the last decade, and the curves that remain tend to be harder and sharper than the ones I grew up seeing. But no amount of cold hard data about the pitch’s effectiveness would make it less visually enjoyable for me. So in this, the age of the looping breaker’s decline, I set out to find some good examples of my favorite pitch, even as guys throw it less and less frequently.

How do you define a looping curveball? My first thought was to look for the curveball that falls the most from its initial trajectory as it heads home. There’s just one problem with that definition, and that problem’s name is Victor Robles:

Amazingly, this clip doesn’t come from either the 22-0 or 19-2 blowouts the Mariners endured last week; they’re having some kind of month on the “getting blown out” front. But that perfectly located curveball had an absurd amount of downward movement because he threw it at 46 mph. I don’t even think it’s a curveball, to be honest; Statcast says it had nearly a foot of positive vertical break from backspin. In any case, clearly this criteria isn’t sufficient for our purposes. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about takeaways from ESPN’s 30 for 30 podcast on Shohei Ohtani and Ippei Mizuhara, disappointing parity (46:41), the latest public-funding ballpark boondoggles in Kansas City and Tampa (52:22), and which AL wild card contender most deserves to squeak into October (1:12:58).

Audio intro: El Warren, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Josh Busman, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to The Betrayal of Shohei Ohtani
Link to Passan video on the Dodgers
Link to Passan tweets on the Dodgers
Link to EW episode on Ippei
Link to criminal complaint
Link to Starz show update
Link to 2024 Shohei/Ippei clip
Link to deMause/Bradbury EW episode
Link to KC ballpark update
Link to Tampa ballpark update
Link to more on Tampa ballpark
Link to Field of Schemes book
Link to Field of Schemes post 1
Link to Field of Schemes post 2
Link to Field of Schemes post 3
Link to TIF wiki
Link to This One Will Be Different
Link to deMause Bluesky post
Link to Hurtak Bluesky post
Link to Nippon Ham wiki
Link to Fighters wiki
Link to fruit of the poisonous tree
Link to Chinese wall wiki
Link to national debt news
Link to Alou brothers game
Link to all-Alou-outfield article

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I had Tuesday’s Cubs-Diamondbacks Bridge League game circled on the calendar. Chicago’s big league squad is in town this week (for a series that has become spicy), and I thought this meant the organization’s recently drafted pitchers might throw in front of traveling Cubs brass who could see their new talent in the morning before heading to Chase Field for the second game of that series. “Bridge League,” for those unfamiliar, is a fairly informal, month-long slate of backfield games that take place at the spring training complexes between the end of the Arizona and Florida Complex League schedules and the end of the other minor seasons in September. It mostly exists to give newly drafted players a soft landing spot to start their pro careers.

But instead of a first glimpse at Cade Townsend or Carson Jasa, I ran into multiple, big-name rehabbers from both clubs: Justin Steele (who threw a live BP) and Ben Brown of the Cubs, and Corbin Burnes and Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks. Here is a rundown of my day and how those guys looked, as the two teams eagerly await reinforcements during their respective playoff pushes. Read the rest of this entry »

If you’ve been watching the Mariners the last couple of nights, you might feel like you’re back in the halcyon days of 2025. Seattle took the first two games of its series against one of baseball’s best teams, the Phillies, and Cal Raleigh launched four home runs over two nights, including a three-dinger outburst on Monday. Unfortunately, that feeling has been fleeting in 2026, as the Mariners are comfortably below .500 and have only remained in the divisional and Wild Card races because their competition has been exuberantly mediocre. As for Raleigh, after hitting 60 home runs and just missing out on the American League MVP award to Aaron Judge, he’s suffered through easily the worst season of his professional career. Raleigh’s collapse this year has been historic in its magnitude, yet both he and the M’s could still come out of this playing October baseball.

When you see a season like Raleigh’s 2025, it’s natural to expect some kind of regression toward the mean. Indeed, it’s so expected a phenomenon that a whole panoply of curses have been coined to explain it without having to get all mathy about it. Did you just have a horrible season after a great one? Well, you may have been cursed by the Sports Illustrated cover, the Madden NFL cover, a Wheaties box, a Heisman award, a sophomore slump, or an MLB the Show cover. Or maybe you just drank Jobu’s rum. Whatever you call it, Raleigh’s 2026 is well past regression to the mean and more like regression to the really frigging mean. I swear, that’s a technical term.

So just how bad a season has Raleigh had compared to expectations? You could probably just say “Austin Hedges has a wRC+ more than 20 points higher than Raleigh.” Or maybe graph Raleigh’s year-to-year home run totals, with the chart properly labeled so that people don’t think they’re viewing a win expectancy graph from a game where late-period Craig Kimbrel was the closer. But since we have a projection system handy, we can do better than that. Read the rest of this entry »