Let’s start with a thought experiment, then we’ll get to the guy in the picture up there. Say you’ve got an unhittable fastball. Every time an opposing batter swings at it, they miss. With such a pitch, you’d want to hit the strike zone every time. Only good things can happen in the strike zone. Either the batter takes and you earn a called strike, or they swing and you earn a swinging strike. Outside the zone, you’d run the risk of throwing a ball because the batter lays off it.

Now, say you’ve got an extremely hittable fastball. Not only does it never generate a whiff, but every time the batter swings at it, they also hit a home run. You’d never want to throw that pitch in the zone. You wouldn’t want to throw it much at all. Maybe you’d use it as a waste pitch to change the batter’s eye level, just every once in a while, and so far outside the zone that they wouldn’t even think about swinging at it. But that’s it.

Those are extreme examples, but my point is to introduce the concept of an ideal zone rate. Every pitcher (and every pitch) in baseball lives somewhere between those two extremes. Some pitchers should live in the zone and some should avoid it. All sorts of factors inform that ideal zone rate: how likely the pitch is to earn a whiff, how likely it is to earn a chase, how hard it tends to gets hit, whether it tends to gets hit in the air or on the ground, how it interacts with the rest of your repertoire, how it performs in different locations, how well you’re able to locate it, how confident you feel in it, the count, batter, situation, and so on, and so on.

Lately, the calculus has shifted somewhat. The zone rate has been rising because pitchers have been instructed to aim down the middle and trust in their stuff. In 2024, 49.6% of all pitches were in the strike zone and 26.5% were specifically in the heart zone (the area at least one baseball’s width from the edge of the zone). Both of those numbers were the highest rates we’d seen since the start of the pitch tracking era in 2008, and both of those numbers were surpassed in 2025, when for the first time ever, more pitches hit the strike zone than missed it. Across baseball, the ideal zone rate has increased.

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We now have all the 2026 projections available on the site. Frequently, we get asked about the differences between the projection systems and how often they’re updated, so here’s a quick primer on what’s what.

Primary Projections

Primary projection systems are generated independently and do not aggregate any of the others.

ZiPS: ZiPS projections are run by Dan Szymborski and have been available on FanGraphs since 2010. ZiPS are updated as needed leading up to the season and updated daily throughout the season. You can read more about ZiPS here.

ZiPS DC: ZiPS DC is exactly the same as ZiPS, except it’s prorated for our RosterResource playing time projections. ZiPS DC playing time is updated daily both leading up to the season and during the season, and the underlying performance projections are updated the same as ZiPS (as needed prior to the season and daily during the season).

Steamer: Steamer projections are run by Jared Cross, Peter Rosenbloom, and Dash Davidson and have been on FanGraphs since 2012. For Members, we also have platoon projections, context neutral projections, and percentile projections. They are all updated daily leading up to the season and during the season.

Steamer600: These are exactly the same as Steamer projections except every position player is prorated to 600 plate appearances (450 for catchers). Starting pitchers are prorated for 200 innings pitched, while relievers are prorated for 65 innings pitched. It’s updated daily leading up to the season and during the season.

THE BAT: Run by Derek Carty, THE BAT projections have been on FanGraphs since 2018. They are updated daily leading up to the season and during the season.

THE BAT X: Also run by Derek Carty, THE BAT X projections are currently for hitters only and are differentiated from THE BAT by including Statcast data. They are updated daily leading up to the season and during the season. You can read more about THE BAT X here.

OOPSY: Run by Jordan Rosenblum, OOPSY debuted on FanGraphs in 2025. Playing time for OOPSY is updated daily leading up to the season and during the season utilizing RosterResource. The underlying performance projections are updated as needed leading up to the season and daily during the season. You can read more about OOPSY here.

Composite Projections

Composite projection systems are an aggregate of primary projection systems. These types of systems tend to do better when tested against actual player performance.

FanGraphs Depth Charts: FanGraphs Depth Charts projections are a 50/50 blend of Steamer and ZiPS prorated to our RosterResource playing time projections. They are updated daily leading up to the season and during the season.

ATC: Compiled by Ariel Cohen and available on FanGraphs since 2017, ATC is a weighted composite of a number of projection systems based on their past performance. ATC is updated weekly leading up to the season. During the season, it’s labeled as ATC DC and uses our RosterResource playing time projections. ATC DC playing time is updated daily, while the underlying performance projections are updated as needed during the season. You can read more about ATC here.

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Philadelphia Phillies. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the sixth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley share their responses—and the baseball world’s response—to the events of this month in Minnesota. Then (17:26) they banter about deboned Carlos Rodón, the latest pseudoscientific pursuits of Bryce Harper (and Mike Trout?), and the Giants signing Harrison Bader, before (48:06) discussing José Ramírez’s new extension with the Guardians, Andrew McCutchen’s quarrel with the Pirates, and what teams and star players owe to each other, if anything. Finally (1:26:22), they bring on data scientist/writer Zach Gozlan to Stat Blast about whether baseball is overrrepresented among sports clues on Jeopardy!

Audio intro: Jonathan Crymes, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Justin Peters, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Calhoun info 1
Link to Calhoun info 2
Link to Calhoun info 3
Link to Ben on Calhoun in 2018
Link to other athlete statements
Link to more athlete statements
Link to Wemby comments
Link to Ober post
Link to Strider post
Link to Woods Richardson post
Link to Klein repost
Link to political affiliation data
Link to Rodón interview clip
Link to Rodón interview article
Link to Harper post summary
Link to Harper clouds repost
Link to Harper’s TikTok
Link to Harper’s mat post
Link to Harper’s mat
Link to Harper and Dombrowski
Link to Trout’s reply to Rooker
Link to Trout’s sponsored post
Link to Trout’s “chamber”
Link to Goop article 1
Link to Goop article 2
Link to Goop article 3
Link to FG post on Bader
Link to BP post on the Giants
Link to FG post on Ramírez
Link to Ramírez interview
Link to Ramírez’s FA value
Link to McCutchen post
Link to Cherington comments
Link to McCutchen article 1
Link to McCutchen article 2
Link to Defector article
Link to Zach’s website
Link to Zach’s data
Link to baseball crosswords research
Link to crosswords wiki summary
Link to Jeopardy! football questions
Link to Jeopardy! Big Dumper question

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The San Francisco Giants, with their unique front office leadership and unconventional manager, have gone the traditional route. “Acquire Harrison Bader” is a tried-and-true team-building strategy for a would-be contender; the former Florida Gator is on his way to his seventh organization in the past four-and-a-half years.

The Giants, unlike Bader’s previous employers, seem interested in keeping him around long enough to unpack all his furniture: Bader’s new contract is for two years and $20.5 million.

Regardless of any analysis to follow, this move makes the Giants stronger in 2026. Bader is a legitimate center fielder who’ll relieve the defensive pressure on the freshly emancipated Jung Hoo Lee (who’s stretched in center) and Heliot Ramos (who’s stretched at any position that requires him to wield a glove). Guys who can play center field comfortably and have a clue at the plate are harder to find than you’d think — especially in free agency — and the Giants got one. Read the rest of this entry »

One day, José Ramírez will get old. One day, he’ll dodder out to the grass in front of the pitcher’s mound on the arm of an adorable grandchild and lollipop the ball into the dirt in front of home plate to the warm cheers of the Cleveland faithful. That’s sure to happen at some indeterminate point in the future. This weekend, however, the Guardians expressed their belief that Ramírez’s inevitable decline is a long way off, inking the 33-year-old future Hall of Famer to a seven-year contract extension that will keep him in the fold through the 2032 season. When the extension expires, Ramírez will be 40.

We’ll break down all the numbers and the dollars, but the biggest story here is the most obvious one. This is great news for anybody who loves Ramírez, the Guardians, or baseball. Ramírez has full no-trade rights, and there’s every reason to expect him to stay for the rest of his career. It’s time to talk about statues and plaques and how nice it is that we’ll never have to know just how wrong it would feel to see him in a jersey that doesn’t say Cleveland on it. This is the third extension Ramírez has signed. The first came in 2016, and it bought out his arbitration years plus two option years. The second came in 2022, and, like this one, it bought out the final three years of the previous extension. Ramírez wanted to stay in Cleveland, and with those first two extensions, he forfeited tens of millions of dollars on the open market to do so.

This extension is slightly more complicated, and the details matter quite a bit. Ramírez was already signed though the 2028 season as part of the previous seven-year extension, so it’s not as if there was a pressing need to get this done. He was owed $69 million over the next three years. This deal reworks his compensation over that period and adds four more years. Over the next seven seasons, Ramírez will earn $25 million per year, with $10 million per year deferred. (Each of those deferrals lasts 10 years, and then pays out $1 million per year for 10 years. So he’ll get $1 million in 2036, $2 million in 2037, and so on until he gets his final $1 million payment in 2051.) The deal also came with perks like increased bonuses for awards and high finishes in the MVP voting, an extra hotel room on road trips, and use of a private jet to and from the All-Star Game plus one extra time per year. Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! It’s a very chilly day here in Brooklyn (21 degrees) with the snow piled high on the curb. I think we got 10-12″ on Sunday. My basement office is cold enough to hang meat, to borrow a phrase from the late, great voice of the Utah Jazz, Hot Rod Hundley.

12:02

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I published the final article of this year’s Hall of Fame election cycle, my look at the next five elections. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/peering-into-the-crystal-ball-the-next-fiv…

12:03

Jay Jaffe: For the first time, I went back and audited my own performance at this exercise, which has always been more art than science. Last week of course I had the Hall of Fame results (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/centers-of-attention-carlos-beltan-and-and…) and the candidate-by-candidate breakdown (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-candidate-by-candidate-look-at-the-2026-…)

12:04

Jay Jaffe: Finally, I’m one of four FanGraphs writers nominated for a SABR Analytics Conference Research Award. You can vote here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-sabr-analytics-conference-research-aw…

12:05

Jay Jaffe: Gotta stand up for what’s right! Melt ICE And now, on with the show

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Joe Boyle is emerging as a late-bloomer success story. Now 26 years old, the Tampa Bay Rays right-hander is coming off a campaign during which he not only continued to display a power arsenal, but began to rein in his command as well. Over 86 innings with Triple-A Durham, Boyle paired a 32.9% strikeout rate with an 11.8% walk rate; across 52 innings with the big league club, those numbers were 25.7% and 12.4%. While admittedly far from George Kirby-esque, those free-pass percentages were nonetheless a meaningful step in the right direction.

Boyle’s relationship with the strike zone has long been tenuous. In May 2024, Eric Longenhagen wrote that while “Boyle has had huge stuff for his entire life as a prospect, [he has] also been very wild.” Fast forward to December of that same year, and our lead prospect analyst again cited the nastiness of the 6-foot-8, 250-pound hurler’s offerings, adding a caveat that he has “zero feel for location.”

Something else that Longenhagen wrote 13 months ago bears noting:

“It’s possible that the Rays will attempt to do with Boyle what they successfully accomplished with Tyler Glasnow: Simplify his delivery to make it more consistent and hope it’s enough for him to be a five-inning starter.”

Currently projected as the Rays’ fifth starter by RosterResource, Boyle is now with his third organization. Selected in the fifth round of the 2020 draft by the Cincinnati Reds out of the University of Notre Dame, he was subsequently swapped to the Oakland Athletics in 2023, and then to Tampa Bay the following winter. It is understandable that the pitching-savvy Rays were, and remain, enamored with his potential. While Boyle’s success at the major league level has been spotty — his ERA last season was 4.67 — his comps stick out like a sore thumb. Baseball Savant’s list of the pitchers most similar to Boyle based on velocity and movement comprises Chase Burns, Jacob deGrom, Dylan Cease, Hunter Greene, and Bubba Chandler. Read the rest of this entry »

You already know how it works: January is for signings, trades, and articles that grade those signings and trades. Everything gets a letter, every transaction has a winner and loser, and positive thinkers like me hand out thumbs up left and right. I’ve rarely seen a signing I didn’t like. I think that most trades help out both sides. What about the aggregate effect of all the signings and trades, though? Which teams play the offseason game the best or the worst? Looking at the Mets this winter got me thinking.

How should we evaluate a front office, particularly in the offseason when we don’t have games to look at? I’ve never been able to arrive at a single framework. That’s only logical. If there were one simple tool we could use to evaluate the sport, baseball wouldn’t be as interesting to us as it is. The metrics we use to evaluate teams, and even players, are mere abstractions. The goal of baseball – winning games, or winning the World Series in a broad sense – can be achieved in a ton of different ways. We measure a select few of those in most of our attempts at estimating value, or at figuring out who “won” or “lost” a given transaction. So today, I thought I’d try something a little bit different.

Instead of a single number, I’m going to evaluate the decisions that David Stearns and the Mets made this winter on three axes. The first is what I’m calling Coherence of Strategy. If you make a win-now trade but then head into the season with a gaping hole in your roster, that’s not coherent. If you trade a star for teenage prospects and then extend a 33-year-old, that’s not coherent. Real-world examples are never that simple, but you get the idea. Some spread in decisions is inevitable, but good teams don’t work against themselves more than they have to.

Next, Liquidity and Optionality. One thing we know for sure about baseball is that the future rarely looks the way we expect it to in the present. Preserving an ability to change directions based on new information is important. Why do teams treat players with no options remaining so callously? It’s because that lack of optionality really stings. Why do teams prefer high-dollar, short-term contracts over lengthy pacts in general? It’s because you don’t know how good that guy is going to be in year six, and you certainly don’t know how good your team will be or whether you’ll have another player for the same position. All else equal, decisions that reduce future optionality are bad because they limit a team’s ability to make the right move in the future.

Finally, maximizing the Championship Probability Distribution. We like to talk about teams as chasing wins, but that’s not exactly what’s going on. Teams are chasing the likelihood of winning a World Series, or some close proxy of that. That’s often correlated to wins, but it’s not exactly the same. Building a team that outperforms opponents on the strength of its 15th-26th best players being far superior to their counterparts might help in the dog days of August, when everyone’s playing their depth pieces and cobbling together a rotation, but that won’t fly in October. Likewise, high-variance players with decent backup options don’t show up as overly valuable in a point estimate of WAR, but they absolutely matter. Teams are both trying to get to the playoffs as often as possible and perform as well as they can after arriving there. That’s not an easy thing to quantify, but we can at least give it a shot.

Let’s begin with a look at the transactions that reshaped the lineup. The biggest of these has to be the infield turnover, with Pete Alonso out and Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco, and Marcus Semien in. Since we’re including Semien, we’ll have to include the departure of outfielder Brandon Nimmo as well. These decisions are clearly coherent; Alonso’s leaving meant space in the infield and an offensive deficit, and the Mets signed multiple free agents to account for that. I’ll analyze the Coherence of Strategy axis at the end of this write-up, but for each individual deal, I’ll focus on the other two axes of analysis.
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