The Brewers and the Cubs played nine innings of baseball on Saturday, but Game 1 of the National League Divisional Series was decided before the end of the first. Every series starts off with its share of questions. Did the Brewers have enough pitching to withstand injuries to Brandon Woodruff and Shelby Miller? Could Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong locate the MVP form they’d showed earlier this season? How would a Brewers offense that loves to work the count fare against a strike-throwing Cubs pitching staff? Would the Brewers be rusty after a five-game layoff? Would the Cubs regret starting Matthew Boyd on short rest after he threw just 58 pitches against the Padres on Tuesday? In Game 1, those last two questions were all that mattered.

The Brewers were not rusty, and Boyd may well have been. The Cubs jumped out to an early lead, but in the bottom of the first, the Brewers exploded on Boyd like they’d spent the past five days packing themselves into a cannon. During the regular season, the Brewers scored only 9% of their runs in the first inning, the third-lowest rate in baseball. Maybe they were saving it all up for the playoffs. Milwaukee raced to a 6-1 lead in the first and extended it to 9-1 in the second. “I’m proud they came out ready,” said manager Pat Murphy during the game. “The guys came out ready to swing, and when they’re ready to swing, a lot of good things can happen. They’re a great bunch.”

By virtue of their first-round bye, the Brewers lined up ace Freddy Peralta to pitch Game 1. After an early hiccup, Peralta looked every bit the guy who led the NL with 17 wins and notched three of them against the Cubs. He missed well outside with a 95-mph fastball on the first pitch of the game, then came back with a belt-high heater over the center of the plate, which Chicago leadoff hitter Michael Busch fouled off. Peralta repeated the pattern: four-seamer well outside, belt-high four-seamer over the middle. Busch was ready for the second one. He turned on it and sent it 389 feet over the right field fence. Four pitches in, the Cubs had a 1-0 lead. Peralta recovered quickly, retiring the next three batters in order. He’d allow just one more base hit over the next four innings.

In the bottom of the second, Jackson Chourio squared to bunt on the first pitch from Boyd, then took it for a ball inside. Looking back, it’s tempting to wonder what would have happened had Boyd put the pitch in the strike zone. Maybe if Chourio would have actually bunted the ball, and maybe the whole game would have gone differently. But it was tight and Chourio pulled the bat back, then ripped the fourth pitch he saw down the third base line for a double. Brice Turang knocked Chourio in with a double of his own, lining the first pitch he saw on a hop off the right field fence. The Brewers had tied the game at one after five pitches. William Contreras ripped the next pitch just past a diving Ian Happ for a double into left field, scoring Turang. With doubles on three consecutive pitches, the Brewers grabbed a 2-1 lead. They were far from done.

Chicago pitching coach Tommy Hottovy walked out to settle down Boyd, who induced a grounder to short from Christian Yelich, then deepened his trouble by walking Andrew Vaughn. Much earlier than the Cubs would have liked, Michael Soroka started warming up in the bullpen.

Boyd broke Sal Frelick’s bat, inducing a weak grounder to second base. Nico Hoerner, who may well end up winning his second Gold Glove this winter, charged the ball and then inexplicably biffed an easy hop. The ball kicked past him, allowing Contreras to score. The Brewers still had runners on first and second with one out, now with a 3-1 lead. Boyd struck out Caleb Durbin with a four-seamer above the zone, then got ahead of Blake Perkins, 1-2. He was one strike from ending the inning, but Perkins worked an incredible 12-pitch at-bat, fouling off pitch after pitch, then ripping a line drive right back up the middle – the thing that both he and the Brewers love the most in the world – scoring Vaughn and moving Frelick to third. The Brewers had a 4-1 lead and Boyd’s day was over after 30 pitches and two-thirds of an inning.

Soroka came into the game with a simple mandate: stop the bleeding and keep the game close. Instead, he walked ninth hitter Joey Ortiz on four pitches, loading the bases and bringing Chourio back to the plate. This might be a good time to note that Chourio ran a 307 wRC+ with two homers in last year’s Wild Card Series, his only previous playoff games. He pushed that career postseason mark even higher, rocking a single through the left side of the infield to drive in two more runs. The Brewers led 6-1. Mercifully, Soroka got Turang to chase a high fastball for strike three.

The Brewers hit for 26 minutes in the first inning. They saw 45 pitches from two pitchers. They notched five hits, walked twice, and reached once via error. They put seven balls in play with a 72% hard-hit rate. Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel pointed out that it was the first time they’d scored six runs in the first inning all season. The incomparable Sarah Langs noted that teams to score at least six runs in an inning had gone 113-1 in postseason history. With that last single off the bat of Chourio, Soroka’s job changed. It was no longer to keep the game within reach. It was to eat as many innings as possible in order to keep the Cubs from annihilating their bullpen in addition to falling behind in the best-of-five series.

Peralta allowed a single to Crow-Armstrong, but he needed just 12 pitches to retire the Cubs in the top of the second and give the Brewers the chance to get right back to hitting. After leading off the first with three straight doubles, Milwaukee led off the second with three straight singles.

Contreras singled to left, Yelich singled to right, and Vaughn singled to center. The bases were loaded and Aaron Civale got warm in the Cubs bullpen. Frelick lined out to left field on a ball that was too shallow for Contreras to tag up on, then Durbin dropped a duck snort into shallow center field, knocking in two. Seventeen Brewers had come to the plate. Thirteen had reached safely. Eight had scored. Perkins grounded out to first base, pushing the runners to second and third with two outs. Ortiz walked on four pitches, loading the bases again, and Counsell made the slow walk out to the mound. Soroka lasted just one third of an inning longer than Boyd. The job of eating innings fell to Civale, whom the Brewers traded to the White Sox for Vaughn back in June and whom the Cubs claimed off waivers at the end of August.

Chourio greeted Civale with another grounder right down the third base line, this one for an infield single to push the score to 9-1. However, it came with a price. Chourio missed nearly the entire month of August with a right hamstring strain, and he aggravated the injury as he hustled to beat the throw from Matt Shaw. Visibly distraught, he spoke to a trainer, then left the field, and walked back to the clubhouse. The Brewers announced that he would be evaluated further after the game. Turang struck out to end the inning, and the TBS broadcast announced that Brewers were the first team in playoff history with nine runs and 10 hits in the first two innings.

The Cubs and Brewers played seven more innings of more baseball. Peralta pitched brilliantly, though he surrendered another solo homer to Happ in the sixth inning. He left one out shy of a quality start, and the Milwaukee faithful rewarded him with a standing ovation. He gave up three earned runs over 5 2/3 innings, striking out nine, walking three, and allowing four hits. Civale filled his role excellently too, scattering three hits over 4 1/3 innings and allowing Counsell to ask the bullpen for just two more innings. Hoerner added another solo homer off Jared Koenig in the eighth inning before Nick Mears closed things out in the ninth.

The questions going into Game 2 will revolve around Chourio’s health and Chicago’s ability to bounce back from such a thorough drubbing. The Brewers possess a capable fill-in in Isaac Collins, who ran a 122 wRC+ as a rookie this season, but Chourio is an awfully hard player to replace. His three hits pushed his career wRC+ in the playoffs to 361, and if the hamstring injury is anywhere near as serious as it looked, it’s hard to imagine him returning in time to play against the Cubs. With the 9-3 victory, the Brewers drew the season series with the Cubs even at 7-7. The good news for the Cubs is that they’ll have a day off before Game 3, allowing their bullpen to get some rest. Although Boyd threw just 30 pitches, he seems unlikely to go on short rest in Game 4.

Favorable conditions for a dramatic and explosive era of the Cubs-Brewers I-94 rivalry have been percolating for a while. And now they come to a head as the two clubs meet each other in the playoffs for the first time ever, even though it’s been 27 years since the Brewers changed leagues. Fan friction invariably occurs when two sports-loving cities are proximate to one another (you can drive from Milwaukee to Chicago in roughly 90 minutes along the southwest shore of Lake Michigan), but tensions grew here when Cubs manager Craig Counsell decided to jump ship from Milwaukee to Chicago after the 2023 season.

Spurned and abandoned by Counsell (and David Stearns) even though the team has been consistently (and seemingly sustainably) competitive, Milwaukee has carried on as a scrappy throwback squad built on contact, speed, and defense. Despite dealing with an April blight of pitcher injuries so bad that it gave us a week of needless torpedo bat discourse, the Brewers finished with the best record in the majors, won the NL Central by five games, and made the postseason for the seventh time in the last eight years, though they have just one NLCS appearance in that mix. The Cubs are fresh off a down-to-the-wire Wild Card Series win in a decisive Game 3 against the Padres in which their deep lineup tallied 13 hits, many off of excellent (if taxed) San Diego relievers. Let’s examine the component parts of each team in greater detail to remind ourselves how each team was assembled, and how they arrived at this part of the postseason. Read the rest of this entry »

The playoffs are off to a thrilling start, with three of the four Wild Card Series lasting the full three games and seven of the 11 games being decided by no more than three runs. We saw excellent defense in Chicago, an offensive outburst in Los Angeles, and a handful of great starting pitching performances.

The best part is we’re just getting started. Today, all four Division Series begin, which means we have another marathon day of baseball ahead of us. First up, we’ve got a pair of divisional foes squaring off, with the Brewers and Cubs set for 2:08 p.m. ET in Milwaukee, followed by the Blue Jays and Yankees at 4:08 p.m. ET in Toronto. In the third game of the day, Shohei Ohtani makes his postseason pitching debut against the Phillies; before he takes the mound, though, he’ll step into the Citizens Bank Park left-handed batter’s box as the Dodgers’ leadoff man at 6:38 p.m. ET. And then to cap it off, the Mariners host the Tigers at 8:38 p.m. ET. As always, we’ll be covering all the action here at FanGraphs.

Before we get to this week’s mailbag, I have one quick programming note to remind everyone of. We’ll still be doing our weekly mailbag during the postseason, but we might move around the specific day it runs depending on the playoff schedule. Our plan is to do one before every postseason round, as we are today. Also, I’d like to remind all of you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com.

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How would you assess the current state of the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry? Are these two teams going to be on a collision course for the next several years like they were in the early 2000s? Or is that more of a TV network pipe dream? — Connor G.

Alex Cora was asked a similar question during his pregame press conference at Yankee Stadium ahead of Game 1 of the Wild Card Series between the two teams.

“I think it is intense in October. During the regular season, there’s others that are more intense. The one in the West Coast is stupid, you know, the Padres and the Dodgers. That’s intense from the get-go,” Cora said. “It’s not that we’re not intense during the regular season, but it has toned down throughout the years.”

He’s right. Anyone who has watched the way the Dodgers and Padres have gone at it lately knows that it’s the closest thing baseball has to the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry of the early 2000s. When it comes to the on-field emotions between the two teams, the Yankees have had more beef with the Rays and Blue Jays, and then obviously with the Astros, than they have with the Red Sox in recent years. Some of that certainly has to do with the on-and-off success that Boston has had over the last decade, because the Yankees and Red Sox have only been in competition with one another for either the AL East crown or the AL pennant a few times.

But a larger part of why the rivalry has cooled off some is rooted in how the two organizations view themselves. Jay Jaffe and I were talking about this during batting practice this week while we were covering the series. Basically, because the Red Sox have won four World Series in the last 20 years (three more than the Yankees in that span), Boston no longer brings an inferiority complex to the park when it plays New York. As much as we here at FanGraphs are all about witchcraft and superstition, we can all agree that there was no literal Curse of the Bambino. However, there is a real emotional and psychological toll that comes from watching a competitor of yours win it all year after year after year while you get so close but can’t quite do it. It’s embarrassing and degrading, and over time, you develop a sense of defiance. You fight back instead of letting yourself get picked on. This attitude is one of the core symptoms of Little Brother Syndrome. The Padres arguably have it now vis-à-vis the Dodgers, and at times, the Rays and Blue Jays bring it to their matchups with the Yankees. But the Red Sox seem to have outgrown it.

That doesn’t mean the fans don’t get more passionate about Yankees-Red Sox games than they do for other matchups, because they absolutely do. With the exception of last year’s World Series, the atmosphere at the Stadium this week was different than it was for the other playoff series I’ve covered there over the last handful of years. The people in the stands understood the stakes, and it didn’t take much effort for them to conjure up their old emotions from when the rivalry was at its peak.

Which brings us to your question about whether this year’s series is going to be the first of many meaningful matchups between the two teams, and if so, whether that would that be enough to reignite the rivalry. I think these two teams are going to be competing with each other for the rest of the decade. With the exception of 2023, when everything went wrong and they missed the playoffs, the Yankees have demonstrated an organizational competence that makes me confident that they’ll be a perennial postseason team, while the Red Sox are just now opening their window of contention. Aaron Boone acknowledged as much late Thursday night on the Yankee Stadium infield, after his team popped champagne and turned their clubhouse into a lazy river of booze. “They’re a great team that’s getting better and better,” he said. “They’re going to be a scary club next year with where they’re going and what they’ve built the last couple of years.”

That level of competition could go a long away toward bringing the rivalry back. I think that could especially be the case if Massachusetts natives Cam Schlittler and Ben Rice become core players of these Yankees. Rice grew up a Yankees fan despite living in Red Sox territory, while Schlittler was a Sox fan and comes from a family of Sox fans. Boston fans could end of being more ruthless if they feel like they’ve been betrayed by two of their own. That’s what Schlittler experienced before his Game 3 start, and he said it fueled his historic performance.

And yet, even as I forecast a brighter future for this rivalry, I don’t think it’ll ever go back to what it was in the early 2000s. Those matchups featured so many massive personalities — Roger Clemens and Pedro Martínez, Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield and David Ortiz, David Wells and Curt Schilling — that when you combined them with the tribalism of the fanbases, the high stakes of the competition, and some Little Brother Syndrome defiance, it created a molotov cocktail of emotions that could explode at any moment. We will never again see anything like Pedro snatching a charging Don Zimmer by the head and flinging him to the ground, and that’s a good thing. I don’t ever want something like that to happen again.

Fortunately, there is a healthy midpoint between the narcoleptic just-another-game mentality and elder abuse, and after what we saw in the Yankees-Red Sox AL Wild Card Series this week and based on what we expect from these two teams in the near future, the rivalry appears to be on the rise.

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Hey team! First time, long time. Love the mailbag. Question as a long-suffering Reds fan.

Is this some cosmic cycle that’s currently benefitting the people of Cleveland like it did St. Louis 10 years ago, and that will eventually get around to me? Or is there something intrinsically special about these teams? Or am I just being punished for being born in the wrong Midwestern town? — Ari

Michael Baumann: So I want to push back a little bit on the idea that these Midwestern teams are unnaturally successful, because they don’t actually do much once they’re in the playoffs.

The Guardians have made it to the ALCS three times in the 21st Century. In 2007 and 2016, they had the best starting pitcher in the AL both years, multiple elite relievers, and dynamic, switch-hitting superstar position players. Nothing magical there; they were just legitimately good teams. Last year, they snagged a bye by default, thanks to a weak division and an indifferent Astros team. They then beat a team from the same division in the ALDS and the first actual good team they ran into caved their faces in.

The Brewers have won a round in only one of their past six playoff appearances. The Cardinals, the most magical team of the bunch, haven’t won a round since 2019. Their unlikely run to the championship in 2006 and penchant for winning dramatically in 2011 gave them an air of the supernatural, but they also got swept in the World Series as a 105-win team in 2004 and no-showed the NLCS in 2019.

As for how these teams keep getting to the playoffs so frequently, well, what your examples have in common is a weak division and a penchant for doing pitcher development well and on the cheap.

Beyond that, I think there’s a tendency to ascribe a quality of clutchness to teams that don’t have impressive lineups but perform well in the postseason. Given how much teams can shorten their rotations and manage their high-leverage bullpens, great pitchers can give you more bang for your buck in the playoffs than in the regular season. There are limits to this phenomenon (for example: I know how bad the Brewers have been in the playoffs because I keep picking them every year and they keep making me look like an idiot), but it’s worked for Cleveland, and Kansas City, and most notably in the recent past for the Even Year B.S. Giants.

It helps, of course, if you have a future Hall of Famer in the lineup. In short, if Cardinals Devil Magic is real (or was, because it sure isn’t happening now), the Great Satan’s name is Albert Pujols.

But the real answer to your question is here: About 50,000 years ago, prehistoric humans began to understand that while their environment followed certain natural rules and patterns, individual events could be unpredictable, as if they were being influenced by invisible spirits. Thus began shamanism, an attempt to communicate with and influence these spirits, and from there all forms of religion and spirituality.

Existence is probabilistic. How unlikely is it that atoms bumped together to form amino acids and proteins, and that they came together in just the right combination to create life? And even given that unfathomable fluke, how could single-celled organisms evolve into complex humans who can throw curveballs? I admit it seems pretty far-fetched that all of this could happen by chance. But working in a sandbox as big as the universe, on a time frame as long as tens of billions of years, unlikely things are bound to happen somewhere, sooner or later.

Sports, being as it is a religion, involves observing our natural world and its chaotic and capricious path, and trying to retrofit some explanation to make it all make sense. The idea that everything is meaningless (“a chasing after the wind,” to quote the holy book of a non-baseball-related faith) leaves us empty. So we stare into the abyss and try to find God. Or worse, the St. Louis Cardinals.

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Hi mailbag!

Cheers!
Brian

Dan Szymborski: The playoffs are a time of chaos — and small sample sizes — so there’s plenty of opportunity for goats to be come heroes and vice versa. I think my favorite example of this in recent years is that of José Abreu. He was pretty terrible his first season in Houston (the second year didn’t go any better!) and was largely seen as a drag on their postseason roster. Then he got into the playoffs, and while the Astros ended up losing the 2023 ALCS to the Rangers, Abreu hit four homers in 11 games, good for a .945 OPS that October. His career after that, which lasted all of six weeks, only had two more homers left in it. I’m not sure the Giancarlo Stanton contract is viewed as negatively, but he’s clearly fallen short of overall expectations in New York. Still, he’s had some really big postseasons with the Yankees.

On the pitching side, you brought up Zito, and he’s the pitcher whose name comes instantly to mind for me. His contract is widely seen as one of the most disappointing pacts of the last decade-plus, but he did net the Giants two huge starts: a 7 2/3 inning shutout against the Cardinals in the 2012 NLCS, and a one-run start a week later in the World Series. It’s still recognized as one of the worst contracts the Giants ever signed, but Zito did earn a bit of redemption given that the Giants won the championship.

That’s who most stands out to me now, but who knows, we might be adding Javier Báez to this list soon!
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Dearest FanGraphs Crew,

Thanks and keep up the good work. — sds

Ben Clemens: Before we try to walk through the theoretical implications, let’s just start out with a downer: No one wants this. What player would want this? What team would want this? From the player perspective, playing baseball is already a full-time job, and being a manager requires a ton of work too. Figuring out how to run a bullpen takes work. Managing player personalities and egos isn’t trivial. Working with coaches and analysts to sort out gameplans is important! You have to figure out player rotations, keep everyone happy, and spend a ton of time talking to the media to make sure that you are communicating team decisions well. These days, managers surely also have to spend a ton of time talking to the front office making sure they’re happy. The two and a half hours of game time where you get pride of place in the dugout and make pitching changes and pinch-hitting decisions is the payoff, but players are pretty busy during the game already, and I can’t imagine a lot of guys think to themselves, “You know what? I’m just not busy enough during games.”

Fine, though. Let’s put all of that aside and say that a star hits free agency, considers all of the stuff I just said, and decides that they want to be a player-manager anyway. If I were a team, I’d try as hard as I possibly could to dissuade them from making this decision. Sure, we can’t quantify the total impact that a manager has on his team’s chances of winning, but no one thinks that there’s no value to it. The Rays are always penny-pinching, but they don’t hire someone from a temp agency to manage the team. That’s because the job is difficult and doing it well has value.

Basically, I’d offer meaningfully less on this deal if the player insisted that they were contractually required to be the manager the whole time and that no one else could fulfill any managerial duties. I’d offer more if we came to an agreement that they would just do the “glamorous” parts – meetings on the mound, postgame press conferences, standing on the top step of the dugout and looking worried – while letting me backfill the behind-the-scenes parts of the job with other staff. If this star really just wants the glory of managing, well, first I’d tell them that there’s a lot less glory in managing than there is in playing. But second, I guess I’d let them. If all they wanted to do was make in-game decisions, I wouldn’t even “charge” them much for it, assuming we talked through their pinch-hitting philosophy beforehand and it wasn’t “backup catchers only.” But my deal stops there. If a player insisted upon doing all of a manager’s tasks and also wouldn’t allow anyone else to do those jobs, I’d offer them meaningfully less money and basically tell them to go elsewhere.

Being a manager is a difficult job. In addition, “we can’t totally measure manager value” is really different from “manager value doesn’t exist.” Teams would absolutely balk at a player wanting to do all of the stuff a manager does, because there aren’t that many hours in the day, and failing to do those things really would be a problem. On the other hand, players almost certainly wouldn’t ask for this, because they see their own managers at work — they know what comes with the job.

Ben Lindbergh brings on Michael Baumann, who immediately makes Ben regret it by subjecting him to a lyrical ode to Effectively Wild inspired by the Taylor Swift song “Wood.” Then they play “College Baseball Player or Make and Model of Car?” before recapping the three decisive Game 3s of the wild card round (with an emphasis on the absurdity of the Guardians’ immediate elimination after their historic AL Central comeback, a bad call on Xander Bogaerts, the heroics of Cam Schlittler and Ryan McMahon, and converting from Red Sox fandom to Yankees fandom) and ranking the four division series matchups. Then (1:15:44) Ben talks to Tigers TV broadcaster Jason Benetti about calling the team’s 2024 comeback and 2025 collapse, how to process their reprieve from elimination after a historic blown lead, players to pay attention to in the ALDS, and naturally, John Brebbia.

Audio intro: Benny and a Million Shetland Ponies, “Effectively Wild Theme (Horny)”
Audio interstitial: Philip Bergman, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Guy Russo, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to “Wood” lyrics
Link to reliever familiarity effect
Link to call on Bogaerts
Link to Padres postgame video
Link to Padres frustration
Link to ump scoreboard
Link to Schlittler fun facts
Link to Schlittler pitches piece
Link to Jeter catch
Link to McMahon catch
Link to Schlittler’s mom’s account 1
Link to Schlittler’s mom’s account 2
Link to article about Schlittler’s family
Link to Ben on first-year pitchers
Link to Ben on the Brewers and Jays
Link to 2024 Benetti appearance
Link to Brebbia EW episode
Link to Benetti’s podcast
Link to Cal award

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Meat + bread + mess are one of the most iconic food combinations known to humanity. Two of my favorites are classics of Philadelphia and Los Angeles, wonderful amalgamations that make a sloppy mess of whiz or jus go down my chin and, too often, the shirt that I’m wearing. I’ve always lived in the eastern part of the United States, so I have more practical experience with cheesesteak locations (I’m partial to Dalessandro’s and John’s Roast Pork). But the French dip is wonderful as well — I have at least gotten to try it at Philippe the Original — and I also love its cousin, quesabirria. Whichever you prefer, you’re choosing from two of the heavy hitters in good, casual food.

I’m not talking about deliciousness because I’m hungry, even though it’s almost dinnertime, but because the Dodgers and Phillies play a similar role in baseball: They’re not everyone’s favorites, but they’re two of the most successful franchises of the last 15 years, and if you’re an NL team, there’s a good chance you’ll have to go through one or both of these teams en route to a championship. Read the rest of this entry »

On Thursday, the New York Yankees became the first team to win a Wild Card Series after losing the first game of the best-of-three since the new playoff format was introduced in 2022. After dispatching the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card, the Yanks have a matchup against another AL East foe lined up for the ALDS. For their part, the Toronto Blue Jays desperately needed their first-round bye to get their roster healthy after a breakneck final month of the season. These two teams finished 2025 with identical 94-68 records. The division race came down to the regular season’s final day, and the Jays only took the AL East crown thanks to a 8-5 head-to-head record against New York.

These division rivals are well acquainted with each other, though this will be the first time the two teams have met in the playoffs. (That’s pretty wild considering the Yankees’ long postseason history. There are now just three teams they haven’t faced in the playoffs: the White Sox, Nationals, and Rockies.) Their identical win totals during the regular season provide the primary storyline in this series: These are two evenly matched clubs battling for a spot in the ALCS.

Read the rest of this entry »

Did you know that Tarik Skubal attended Seattle University? What’s that? You knew it already? Oh. Well, that’s great. Kudos to you for doing the research. I hope you are prepared to have that one fact bludgeoned so deeply into your brain over the next week that decades hence, when all the other thoughts start falling out of your aged skull, it will be all that remains. “Seattle Redhawks, only D-I program to offer him a scholarship,” you’ll mutter over and over like a protective spell as you putter through the halls of the nursing home. After defeating the Cleveland Guardians in the Wild Card round, the Detroit Tigers are headed to Seattle for the American League Divisional series. Tarik Skubal is coming home. Let’s get to the preview.

With the second-best record in the American League, the rested Seattle Mariners certainly look to be the clear favorite. They’ve got three (or maybe four) great starters lined up. They’ve got a top-10 bullpen by both ERA and FIP. Their team 113 wRC+ gives them the third-best offense in baseball. They finished the season by winning 17 of their last 21 games. On the other hand, it’s worth noting that all 17 of those wins came against non-playoff teams. Before that 21-game stretch started, the Mariners lost four straight, also to non-playoff teams. Their final act of the regular season was getting swept at home by the Dodgers. The Mariners finished the season with just three more wins than the Tigers and a run differential advantage of just five runs. Their Pythagorean records are identical. These teams are not as different as you may think.

During the Wild Card round, the Tigers were forced to empty their bag of tricks in order to hold off a Guardians team that stole the AL Central crown from under their noses. They relied on their ace, they coaxed just enough great relief performances out of a less-than-great bullpen, they played small ball, they induced errors, they bafflingly pinch-hit for their best hitter. During Game 3, they even got desperate enough to try scoring some runs. Will they come into the ALDS depleted, or will they finally regain the swagger they had when they went into the All-Star break with the best record in baseball? Read the rest of this entry »

Today’s postseason off day provides a nice opportunity to push an update to my Top 100 Prospects list. This is a “low-hanging fruit” update, more of a polishing and augmentation of the current list than an omnibus analysis of the entirety of the minor leagues. I mainly focused on the players who are closest to graduation, players who got a cup of coffee in the big leagues (sometimes a big cup, close to the maximum roster days without losing 2026 rookie eligibility) and who we basically can’t know any more about than we currently do before they graduate next year. I took a pass at the guys who were already on the Top 100 in a variety of ways; the cement is dry on their season-long stats and their underlying performance data, so everyone got a checkup in this regard, as well as via a TrackMan data check-in. I also watched all of these players swing and play defense at least a little bit just to re-establish an end-of-season visual understanding of their look.

Immediately below, you’ll see the updated list along with trend arrows indicating if a player’s FV grade has changed on this update, and then below that my thoughts on the clusters of players that formed throughout this process. The number of players on whom I have a grade of 50 or better is currently a little below 100, and the number of healthy players is even lower than that. As the offseason list-making process gets underway, there will probably be more players added to this tier, and any player’s grade is potentially subject to change as the down time allows for deeper analysis. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »