After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles.

Batters

The history of the post-Earl Weaver Orioles has not been a happy one. Over his first stint with Baltimore, from 1968 to ’82, they were the winningest team in baseball, with 1,570 total wins, and averaged four wins per season more than the next-best team, the Reds, during that stretch. At no time during this era did the O’s finish below .500, and that even leaves out their last World Series championship in 1983. Weaver wasn’t just one of the best managers in baseball, but a very modern manager who used what analytics were available at the time.

But the failure of the O’s isn’t just a failure of managing. Weaver was great, but the team’s assembly line of young talent was a pivotal piece to the puzzle. While there are certainly some notable successes, the Orioles simply haven’t produced that much talent over the last 20–30 years. It certainly didn’t help that they placed a low priority on finding talent in Latin America for a long time, depriving them of a source that pretty much everyone else in baseball happily accessed. Read the rest of this entry »

Sunday evening’s announcement of the National Baseball Hall of Fame’s Early Baseball and Golden Days Era Committee voting results brought a mixture of elation and sadness, as well as some measure of closure. Six candidates were elected to the Hall via the two ballots for long-retired players and managers, including three of its most famous omissions (Early Baseball’s Buck O’Neil, and Golden Days’ Gil Hodges and Minnie Miñoso), two of the three living candidates (Golden Days’ Jim Kaat and Tony Oliva), and a pioneer who stands as the first professional Black player in history (Bud Fowler). But as a bracing reminder of near-misses and the collision between baseball and human mortality, Dick Allen — who died on December 7, 2020, one day before his candidacy would have been considered if not for the coronavirus pandemic — fell a single vote short of election for the second time in a row.

The voting by the two 16-member panels took place on Sunday in Orlando, Florida, where the MLB Winter Meetings would have been held this week if not for their cancellation due to MLB’s decision to lock out the players following the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement (the MiLB portion is still taking place). Each voter was allowed to include up to four of the 10 candidates on their ballot, and the voting was done in secret.

By far the most popular candidate up for election on either ballot was O’Neil, whose career as a player began in 1937 with the Kansas City Monarchs. O’Neil played alongside Hall of Famers such as Satchel Paige, Willard Brown, Bullet Rogan, and Hilton Smith, then managed the Monarchs, but it was his post-career work that elevated him into the pantheon. He was a pioneering scout who connected Ernie Banks to the Cubs and Elston Howard to the Yankees, signed Lou Brock, and scouted Lee Smith. He was the first Black coach in the AL/NL majors. And finally, he was an ambassador for the Negro Leagues, playing an outsized role in raising awareness of Black baseball and in recognizing its greats. O’Neil spent 21 years on the Veterans Committee, offering eyewitness testimony on his cohorts; served as subject and narrator in Ken Burns’ nine-part documentary series Baseball; co-founded the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum in Kansas City; and crusaded for Negro Leagues players deserving election to the Hall. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of a series concerning the 2022 Early Baseball Era Committee ballot, covering managers and long-retired players whose candidacies will be voted upon on December 5. For an introduction to the ballot, see here, and for an introduction to JAWS, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

John Donaldson

“If [John] Donaldson were a white man or if the unwritten law of baseball didn’t bar Negroes from the major leagues, I would give $50,000 for him and think I was getting a bargain.” — John McGraw, quoted in various newspapers, 1915

The career totals are staggering — 413 wins, 5,091 strikeouts, 14 no-hitters, and two perfect games over a span of 33 years — and they’ve all been documented. But only a fraction of those are on Seamheads, and an even smaller fraction on Baseball Reference, covering his time in the major Negro Leagues. John Donaldson is an enigma. He may have been the greatest Black baseball pitcher of all time.

A 6-foot-1, 180-pound left-hander who had speed, a wide assortment of curveballs, and a good changeup, Donaldson spent the years from 1908-40 carving out a singular career in Black baseball. He barnstormed before the major Negro Leagues were in place, dominating the competition, spent five seasons (1920-24) with the Kansas City Monarchs (whom he’s said to have named) of the first Negro National League, primarily as an outfielder rather than a pitcher, and then spent over a decade and a half continuing his barnstorming odyssey on integrated and Black semiprofessional teams. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of a series concerning the 2022 Early Baseball Era Committee ballot, covering managers and long-retired players whose candidacies will be voted upon on December 5. For Jay Jaffe’s introduction to the ballot, see here.

Read the rest of this entry »

Buddy Kennedy came two steps closer to following in his maternal grandfather’s footsteps this year. Splitting his first full professional season between High-A Hillsboro and Double-A Amarillo, the 23-year-old Arizona Diamondbacks infield prospect slashed a robust .290/.384/.523. Moreover, his right-handed stroke produced a 141 wRC+ and 22 home runs in just 406 plate appearances.

Don Money’s career high in home runs, which came in 1977, was 25. Himself a right-handed-hitting infielder, Money made four All-Star teams and put up a 106 wRC+ while playing with the Philadelphia Phillies (1968-72) and the Milwaukee Brewers (1973-83). Like his grandson, his primary position was third base.

A native of Millville, New Jersey — he and Mike Trout attended the same high school — Kennedy was Arizona’s fifth-round pick in the 2017 draft. Well before that time he was receiving sage advice from the family patriarch — advice that continues to this day.

“Ever since I was young he’s given me perspectives that most guys don’t have,” said Kennedy. “He helped teach me about the professional side of the game early on, so that I could go about my business the way I’m supposed to, instead of just going out there and playing without a purpose. He’s a great source. I love him. We sit down to talk baseball every time I get home.” Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of a series concerning the 2022 Early Baseball Era Committee ballot, covering managers and long-retired players whose candidacies will be voted upon on December 5. For an introduction to the ballot, see here, and for an introduction to JAWS, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Vic Harris

Vic Harris was a feisty and feared player, a high-average, left-handed spray-hitting left fielder with only moderate power who nonetheless stood out during his playing career, mainly from 1923 to ’43, and primarily with the powerhouse Homestead Grays. He made an even bigger mark as a manager. With his max-effort style setting an example for his players, he piloted the Grays to seven pennants (some sources count an eighth) in a 12-season span (1937-48) in the second Negro National League, a mark unparalleled in the major Negro Leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about which teams have the most unfinished roster construction to complete post-lockout and the league’s and union’s dueling playoff format proposals, then answer listener emails about what Wander Franco would make as a free agent today, a plan to combat tanking, and the proper pluralization of “hit by pitch,” Stat Blast about Rich Hill and Scott Service, and meet two major leaguers, the Nationals’ Joan Adon and the Cubs’ Tyler Payne.

Audio intro: Leftover Salmon, “Mountain Top”
Audio outro: Biz Markie, “My Man Rich”

Link to 14-team-playoffs proposal
Link to 12-team-playoffs proposal
Link to Ken Rosenthal on Freeman
Link to Sam Miller on seeking contracts
Link to article about Boras loophole
Link to the “Gold Plan”
Link to article on MLB vs. NFL TV ratings
Link to Ben Clemens on the Hill signing
Link to list of most signings with one team
Link to list of most stints with one team
Link to article about Cubs players used
Link to article about Service
Link to Servais vs. Service record
Link to Servais vs. Service video
Link to Travis Sawchik thread
Link to Adon debut highlights
Link to Adon debut post
Link to Effectively Wild Secret Santa
Link to Stove League teaser video
Link to Stove League review
Link to stream Stove League via Kocowa
Link to stream Stove League via Viki

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

In news that was buried under the pre-lockout transaction rush, the White Sox brought back 30-year-old utility man Leury García on a three-year deal for $16.5 million. Despite a season slash line of .267/.335/.376, he still put up 2.0 WAR in 126 games, a testament to his defensive prowess.

It’s the bat that has been the issue, as you can see in his career 80 wRC+, though his 98 wRC+ in 2021 was a significant step up. The lack of power is the largest hole in García’s offense, or at least the clearest area for improvement. There is some measurable power, with a max exit velocity of 109.6 mph that is above league average, but it’s largely undone by a 55% ground-ball rate. He lags behind those with similar exit velocity in barrel rate, too.

Deficiencies with the bat don’t matter so much with García, though, as he is through and through a utility man, and while many players end up playing a bevy of positions, he is firmly in the Chris Taylor tier. Both were the only two players to play at least 60 innings at six different positions in 2021 — the only two with at least 30, in fact.
Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of a series concerning the 2022 Early Baseball Era Committee ballot, covering managers and long-retired players whose candidacies will be voted upon on December 5. For Jay Jaffe’s introduction to the ballot, see here.

Buck O’Neil

“Among the luminaries on the KayCees team is John O’Neil, who has been acclaimed as the finest fielding and hitting first baseman in Negro baseball.” – The Evening News, Harrisburg Pennsylvania, July 1941

In February of 2006, the Special Committee on the Negro Leagues convened to consider 39 candidates from the Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball for induction into the Hall of Fame, a final ballot selected from an initial group of 94; Buck O’Neil was among those finalists. But when the Committee announced the results of their work, O’Neil wasn’t one of the 17 players and executives elected. O’Neil never got to experience a Major League debut, as his Negro Leagues playing career was ending just as Major League Baseball was integrating. After serving as both a first baseman and manager with the Kansas City Monarchs, he worked as a scout and became the first African-American coach in MLB. In later years, he gained admiration as one of the game’s greatest ambassadors and storytellers.

“God’s been good to me. They didn’t think Buck was good enough to be in the Hall of Fame. That’s the way they thought about it and that’s the way it is, so we’re going to live with that. Just keep loving old Buck. Don’t weep for Buck. No, man, be happy, be thankful,” he told The Kansas City Star in 1995. Read the rest of this entry »