FanGraphs Baseball

Hello. While on paternity leave, I kept a journal about baseball and my daughter, who is not named Derek Jr., but who will henceforth be referred to as Derek Jr. This is the second installment of that series. You can read all of the entries here.

April 17

Like any new parents, my wife and I spend a lot of time staring at our baby and talking about how beautiful she is. Of course we do. Evolution has programmed us to be completely overwhelmed by the baby’s beauty so that we don’t leave her on the doorstep of the nearest convent when we get fed up with the wailing and the sleepless nights and the relentless, unceasing, never-ending pooping. It has worked. We are ensorcelled. Derek Jr.’s future is wimple-free. But I’m starting to think it has hit my wife harder.

I say this because she has started to insist that Derek Jr. is “an objectively beautiful baby.” Objectively beautiful. You’re familiar with beauty, right? The thing that is, famously, in the eye of the beholder? Apparently one beholder knows better. It’s not enough that she thinks the baby is beautiful, and that everyone tells her all day long how beautiful the baby is. She now needs it to be proven empirically.

I used the word “insist” earlier because I have been pushing back ever so slightly on this one. I spend a whole lot of time analyzing players or trends, and it requires rooting out biases and confounding variables. Call me crazy, but I’m picking up on a possible conflict of interest here. I’m not prepared to get in a fight over this, but I have gently pointed out that the fact that my wife is throwing around the word “objectively” here is — objectively — hilarious. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s May 29, roughly two full months into the regular season, which means, given the year, that it’s time for everyone’s favorite pastime: parsing competing proposals for a new collective bargaining agreement. Wednesday, the MLBPA released its first proposal for a new agreement. Thursday, MLB followed suit with a proposal of its own. Both are best thought of as opening offers, likely to be heavily modified as the negotiations heat up ahead of the existing agreement’s December 1 expiration. But that doesn’t mean that they’re meaningless. I think these early offers are revealing of what each side cares about most. The specific numbers quoted are unlikely to survive multiple rounds of bargaining, but the concepts and structures that each side favors at this stage could tell us a lot about what an eventual compromise looks like. So without getting too bogged down in the details, let’s peruse both proposals and try to tease out what each side is trying to accomplish.

The MLBPA’s Proposal
The players’ first salvo focuses on two things: revenue sharing and early-career pay. Revenue sharing is going to be a key point of discussion in this negotiation. The league has raised competitive balance concerns for years, and it’s clear that there’s public interest in leveling the playing field. Collectively bargained labor agreements don’t solely play out in the court of public opinion, but making the sport more interesting and marketable is a benefit for both sides, so a more balanced system of distributing revenue seems like a clear path towards sustaining the game’s recent growth.

The central piece of the MLBPA revenue sharing proposal is a redistribution of TV money. Currently, teams share a flat 48% of all local revenue, TV included. The MLBPA proposal would change that significantly. In their framework, the first $50 million from each team’s local TV contract, and two-thirds of the amount above $50 million, would be pooled centrally, along with all national TV revenue. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley discuss the initial CBA proposals by the MLBPA and MLB: some specific points of departure and alignment, whether we really learned anything about what each side wants or the likelihood of lost games, and what the rhetoric and rebuttals say about the PR battle to come. Then (50:08) they banter about whether baseball broadcasts could ever get good enough to endanger attendance, why ABS challenge rates haven’t closely correlated with batter quality, a difference between what fans and neutral spectators tend to enjoy about teams, whether ace-type starting-pitcher seasons are making a partial comeback, a threat to baserunners and bat-dog employment, and a mid-start stretching-related mishap.

Audio intro: Justin Peters, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Ian H., “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Drellich on franchise values
Link to MLBPA proposals
Link to Drellich on the MLBPA proposals
Link to Normandin on the MLBPA proposals
Link to Mains on the MLBPA proposals
Link to Drellich on the MLB proposals
Link to Meyer statement
Link to Caplin statement
Link to CBA math post 1
Link to CBA math post 2
Link to Episode 1542
Link to Passan’s CBA proposals breakdown
Link to Ben’s bargaining primer
Link to Hershberger’s 1876 post
Link to Sam on challenge rates
Link to challenge leaderboard
Link to Andrews on Wood’s challenges
Link to pitcher-pace leaderboard
Link to batter-pace leaderboard
Link to George injury article
Link to bat-dog suspension article 1
Link to bat-dog suspension article 2
Link to “Pups in the Park” page
Link to 2025 bat-dog call-up
Link to Pérez injury article
Link to Reddit comment about Ben
Link to MLBTR on Brebbia
Link to MLBTR on Jones

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After posting an excellent 125 wRC+ over his first two seasons, James Wood is establishing himself as one of the best hitters in baseball this year. The 23-year-old National is running a 169 wRC+, third best among qualified batters, and he’s on pace for 43 homers, 26 stolen bases, and 7.2 WAR. Everybody knows the parameters of Wood’s game by now. He’s 6-foot-6, extremely choosy at the plate, and so spectacularly powerful that his proclivity for whiffs and groundballs barely holds him back. This year, he’s improved on both fronts, dropping nearly 10 percentage points from his groundball rate and adding nearly four points to his contact rate on pitches in the strike zone. It’s huge news – James Wood-huge even – and if he can hold on to even some of those gains, he’s going to live at the top of the leaderboards for a long, long time. Today, however, we’re going to talk about a leaderboard where Wood ranks dead last.

If you head over to Baseball Savant’s new ABS challenge leaderboard, you’ll find Wood all the way at the bottom. A big caveat before we get going: The challenge system is very new, and because each player challenges so few times, the sample sizes are very small. Moreover, everyone involved is still adjusting to the system, so the trends we’re seeing now are likely to change. In this article, I’m going to be overreacting to these early numbers. It’s way too soon for big proclamations. However, I don’t think it’s too soon to look for patterns and draw some early conclusions about players who stand out as starkly as Wood does. End of caveat.

Now let’s go to the leaderboard and sort by either Net Overturns or Net Runs. There’s Wood, dead last. According to Statcast’s reckoning, an average batter who saw the same pitches Wood has seen would have made 4.8 more successful challenges and netted their team 1.4 more runs. No player has been worse, and even if you ignore the advanced numbers for a moment, Wood’s record tells you all you need to know. He’s made 13 challenges. He’s won three of them and lost 10. For those of you keeping score at home, that stinks. The average batter has won 47% of their challenges, twice as many as Wood. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Last Friday, after missing the entire 2025 season due to Tommy John surgery, Gerrit Cole fared well in his return to the Yankees rotation, firing six scoreless innings against the Rays even while struggling to miss bats. On Wednesday night in Kansas City, Cole truly looked back, this time throwing 6 2/3 scoreless innings while striking out 10 Royals without issuing a walk. The former Cy Young winner’s reassuring performance is a welcome development for a rotation that has weathered some high-profile absences — and will have to continue doing so.

The Yankees began the season with Cole, Carlos Rodón, and Clarke Schmidt all recovering from elbow surgeries, and while the first two have now returned, Max Fried — their most valuable pitcher last season — has been sidelined for a spell, as has 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil. Nonetheless, the team’s rotation has been one the game’s best thus far, leading the majors in WAR (7.5), leading the AL in FIP (3.22), and ranking a close second in the league in both ERA (2.98) and strikeout rate (24.5%). Despite backing that unit with the most potent offense in the league, the 34-22 club finds itself trailing the Rays (34-19) by 1 1/2 games in the AL East.

Prior to last Friday, Cole’s last competitive appearance in the majors had been a reminder of a golden opportunity lost: His inexplicable failure to cover first base in the fifth inning of Game 5 of the 2024 World Series fueled the Dodgers’ comeback from a 5-0 deficit on a night they ended up clinching the title. Limited to 17 starts that season due to nerve irritation and edema in his elbow after finally bringing home a Cy Young award in 2023, Cole made just two appearances in spring training last year before being diagnosed with a torn UCL and undergoing surgery. He progressed enough in his recovery to make two brief appearances in Grapefruit League games this spring, then continued his rehab by making six starts spread across three minor league levels before returning to the Yankees. Read the rest of this entry »

This year, I’ve mostly been focused on minor league coverage — those pesky lists don’t write themselves — but with the draft on the horizon and four conference tournaments happening in one metro, I flew down to Phoenix last week. Eric split his time between the Mountain West, West Coast, and WAC tournaments while I sat on the Big 12’s signature event in Surprise. It was a strange week in some respects. The top two, and maybe even top three, guys on my pref list aren’t eligible until next year’s draft, thanks in part to injuries that knocked a couple of the league’s best prospects out of the tournament entirely. Moreover, the relatively brief nature of a single-elimination tournament means I didn’t come away with a complete impression of a lot of players, including guys who will presumably be drafted relatively early.

With that in mind, I encourage you to consider this a rundown of what I saw rather than a definitive list of the top prospects from the league. These are just my observations from the field, and do not reflect a more holistic evaluation process. Eric and I will do more work on the Draft Board as we get closer to July, a process which may shift how I or we think about some of the players covered below, and we’ll likely add other players from the Big 12 into the mix. With a nod to how short the look was in some cases, where applicable, I’ll share the questions I have about some of these players going forward alongside my notes.

2026 Draft Class

As mentioned above, a few of the league’s top dogs were stuck in the kennel. Sawyer Strosnider, arguably the Big 12’s most projectable hitter, missed TCU’s one-and-done after injuring his ankle in practice the week before. His teammate Chase Brunson, another potential high pick, missed the game with knee trouble. Finally, Kansas was able to lift the trophy without first baseman Brady Ballinger, who was nursing a hamate injury. He’s a power hitter who entered the season with draft helium, though he has seen his stock take a bit of a tumble after only hitting seven homers as a junior. Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Dan Szymborski: And heeeere we go

12:03

Dan Szymborski: There are some rules, though I’m not sure precisely WHERE they’re written down

12:03

Dan Szymborski: 15 seconds, no inappropriate lyrics, themes, etc.

12:03

Dan Szymborski: and it has to be licensed

Read the rest of this entry »

For today’s FanGraphs Feature Focus, I’ll be taking a look at one of my favorite site features: our Weather Splits. Michael Baumann spotlighted these splits back in 2024, and the format of the page hasn’t changed since then. So while I’ll walk you through how the Weather Splits work and where to find them, I’ll mostly be showcasing some of the silly leaderboards they can help to generate.

To create the leaderboards in this piece, I toyed around with the Weather Split Ranges on the Splits tab of the Splits Leaderboard:

Those Weather Split Ranges aren’t mutually exclusive or siloed off from the rest of the splits. For example, by changing the Wind Speed filter and adding the Wind Direction sub filter, we can see which players have hit multiple home runs with the wind blowing in at 10 mph or more:

Bob Seger would be proud of Ryan Jeffers, who is currently on the IL after undergoing hamate surgery but still tops this leaderboard as the only player with a trio of homers against significant winds. If you click into the full leaderboard, you’ll notice that Auto PT is on:

When that’s the case, the leaderboard will smartly adjust the minimum playing time depending on how restrictive your search is, sometimes setting no minimum at all. You can always set your own minimum in the Filters section. The Temperature filter is even more straightforward to use, though here I’ll note that our filters don’t automatically eliminate indoor or retractable roof stadiums. That’s done with the Ballpark Type filter:

Applying those two filters in tandem, I made a list of the pitchers who’ve done especially well when it’s either chilly or flat-out cold, and they’re actually exposed to those elements:

While the ball doesn’t carry as well in cooler temperatures, it can also cause pitchers to experience grip troubles, even at a relatively balmy 57 degrees. But that hasn’t affected the pitchers on this leaderboard.

The Weather Splits are also a great excuse to take a crash course in barometric pressure, which I had to do in order to understand our various splits. Per Maximum Weather Instruments, which sells barometers and other pressure measurers, normal air pressure is considered 1,013.25 millibars. Anything above that is considered high pressure, so I set my minimum at 1,014. These relievers are the guys most frequently used in high-pressure situations… in both senses of the word:

Did I really do this research and make a whole leaderboard just so I could make an “Under Pressure” joke? I choose to exercise my Fifth Amendment rights, Your Honor.

I made leaderboards for these three splits, but we’ve got plenty more within the Weather tab of the Splits Leaderboard. Beyond the ranges for temperature, pressure, and wind, you can also set ranges for air density and elevation. The Ballpark Type and Weather tabs at the top also include some binary filters that you can combine (e.g., rain and drizzle, or fog and haze):

As with ballpark type and leverage, the weather ranges can be combined with both each other and the binary weather filters. For instance, you could look at high winds in warmer weather only, or rain in colder weather only.

Our Weather Splits are available going back to 2010, and the entirety of the Splits Leaderboard can be accessed regardless of whether you’re a FanGraphs Member. But if you want to export to Excel to more easily compare player performance across splits, you have to be a Member. If you’d like to sign up for a Membership, you can do so here.

Joe Ryan is about as steady a pitcher as you’ll find in the big leagues. Since his first full season in the majors, 2022, Ryan has never made fewer than 23 starts. He’s never thrown fewer than 135 innings nor more than 171, and his season-by-season WAR has stayed between 2.2 and 3.1. He hasn’t been a front-end starter, but he’s making just $6.2 million, which is a tremendous bargain. He was a hot commodity who somehow stayed put during the Twins’ fire sale last summer; if Minnesota is out of contention again, you’ll probably hear his name come up at this coming deadline, as well.

It also helps that Ryan is having a career year at the right time. He’s already at 2.1 WAR on the season, and we’re only about a third of the way through the calendar. That puts him fifth in the league. He’s also sixth in FIP, 12th in strikeouts, and 10th among qualified starters in K-BB%. Read the rest of this entry »