Writing about baseball isn’t the most predictable task. I often don’t know what my topic will be until the dust settles, hours after rummaging through a pile of numbers that, at first glance, makes little sense. For example, this article started off as an inquiry into Darin Ruf. Of all the journeymen to stop by the KBO, experience a resurgence, and return stateside, he’s by far enjoying the greatest success – who would have guessed?

As a right-handed hitter, Ruf’s primary asset is a knack for mashing lefty pitchers. He can hold his own against righty pitchers, too, posting a 126 wRC+ against them last season. But detractors might point to a .386 BABIP that buoyed much of that production. In other words, one could expect Ruf to become a bit more… rough in the future (sorry). A quick search reveals that he had a higher groundball rate against righties compared to lefties, which doesn’t bode well for future success, and not much else. The critics win this round.

Here’s the thing, though – he wasn’t alone. It turns out that in 2021, right-handed hitters had a higher groundball rate against right-handed pitchers; conversely, they had a lower groundball rate against left-handed pitchers. You can see for yourself:

This is also true of left-handed hitters. Facing same-handed pitchers led to more groundballs, while opposite-handed pitchers led to, well, the opposite. The gap in groundball rate by pitcher handedness is greater for lefty hitters, though that may be influenced by the relatively few instances of lefty-versus-lefty matchups. Still, the difference, which appears on a league-wide scale, is significant enough to warrant an investigation. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Mets.

Batters

It feels a little weird to be optimistic about the Mets after the season they just had (or perhaps because the Mets are one of the world’s most powerful pessimism-inducing entities). But when I look at the offense, there’s just not that much to complain about. None of Starling Marte, Mark Canha, or Eduardo Escobar are superstars — though Marte comes close at times — but signing that trio really improved how the lineup looks going into 2022. The team has a credible backup at most positions and even some upper minors depth (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and, if you believe Steamer rather than ZiPS, Khalil Lee) they can use if the need arises. Read the rest of this entry »

The week before Christmas, I conducted an investigation into the Giants’ strange sinker-ballers. Logan Webb and Alex Wood enjoyed spectacular years, and they both did it using sinkers they released from a low starting point, which created a unique look for batters.

You probably didn’t read that article, and that’s okay. It was the peak of the holiday season. You were likely out in the world like me – seeing family, drinking eggnog-flavored coffee beverages, and generally making up for last year. My consumption of baseball media went way down, and I do this for a living.

As a self-interested person, I suggest you go back and read that article. I thought it was pretty good! More importantly, though, I’ve been doing more research into what the heck a “flat sinker” even is. The concept just doesn’t fit into my brain, and when that happens, I like to hit myself over the head with data until something clicks. So today, please enjoy some random things I’ve researched while trying to understand why in the world “flat” (approach angle) and “sinker” (pitch type) coexist. Read the rest of this entry »

When Buster Posey announced his retirement in early November, my first thought was something along the lines of “Fantastic career; he’ll be getting my vote when he becomes Hall of Fame eligible in five years.” Looking back, that initial reaction actually undersold just how dominant Posey was over his 12-year career.

A few days ago, I shared the following on social media:

Best catchers in baseball history: 1. Mickey Cochrane, 2. Johnny Bench, 3. Josh Gibson, 4. Yogi Berra, 5. Gary Carter, 6. Ivan Rodriguez.

Your opinion of that ranking aside, a follower proceeded to ask for my opinion of Posey. That prompted me to compare the 34-year-old’s career to that of Cochrane, who likewise was done at a relatively-early age. Cochrane played his last game shortly after his 34th birthday, an errant Bump Hadley pitch — this in the days before hitters wore helmets — having fractured his skull and rendered him unconscious for 10 days. Coincidentally or not, Cochrane had taken Hadley deep in his previous at bat.

Cochrane played from 1925-1937 — a high-offense era — and finished his career with an eye-popping .320/.419/.478 slash line. Perusing our WAR leaderboard for that baker’s-dozen stretch, you’ll find Cochrane sandwiched between Rogers Hornsby and Tony Lazzeri. In 1947, Cochrane became the first catcher voted into the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA.

Cochrane played in 1,482 games. Posey played in 1,371 games. How do they otherwise compare? Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley continue their “Measuring the Unmeasurable” series about studying difficult-to-quantify aspects of the sport by bringing on Rob Mains of Baseball Prospectus to banter about ESPN’s new Sunday Night Baseball broadcasting plans and discuss Rob’s studies about competitive balance, team mobility and inequality, starter vs. reliever performance, the magnitude and history of the times-through-the-order penalty, the universal DH, injuries, and more. Then (50:25) they bring on the pseudonymous author of research blog Hareeb’s Hangout to talk about the potential pitfalls of baseball analysis, how baseball analysis compares to esports analysis, his history of betting on baseball, his studies on the cause of the TTOP, reliever sequencing, valuing closers, and the difficulty of fielding pulled balls, the proprietary data he wishes he had, and his recent research interests.

Audio intro: Neko Case, “Bracing for Sunday”
Audio interstitial: Math and Physics Club, “All the Mains Are Down”
Audio outro: The Muffs, “Where Did I Go Wrong”

Link to ESPN SNB press release
Link to Rodger Sherman on the Manning broadcast
Link to The Press Box on the Manning broadcast
Link to Jason Benetti Nerdcast tweet
Link to Rob on pitching to contact
Link to Rob on small-market teams
Link to Rob on relievers vs. starters
Link to Craig Edwards on relievers vs. starters
Link to Travis Sawchik on relievers vs. starters
Link to Rob on pitching and payrolls
Link to Rob on the times-through-the-order penalty
Link to Rob on the TTOP again
Link to Rob on 2021 injuries
Link to Rob on the DH and interleague play
Link to Rob on the universal DH
Link to Rob on team mobility and inequality
Link to Rob on 2021 mobility inequality
Link to post on Rocket League and pitcher velocity
Link to post on Rocket League viewership
Link to second post on Rocket League viewership
Link to MTG Arena post
Link to post on regression and linear weights
Link to second post on regression/linear weights
Link to study on the TTOP
Link to other study on the TTOP
Link to study on repertoire and the TTOP
Link to study on reliever sequencing
Link to BP piece on reliever sequencing
Link to study on Wins Above Average Closer
Link to study on pulling the ball
Link to Tango’s response to study
Link to Tango on playing center vs. corners
Link to Eno Sarris on playing outfield corners
Link to Mike Petriello on outfielders and spin

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

2:01	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat of 2022. We’ve got a few inches of snow in Brooklyn from last night but against the odds, the kiddo is in school for the first time since December 17, the last time I chatted.

2:02	Jay Jaffe: Today I’ve got my third entry from among the one-and-done candidates on the Hall of Fame ballot, Ryan Howard https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot-ryan…

2:04

Jay Jaffe: this completes a trilogy of first basemen who won the Home Run Derby and made several All-Star teams before their careers were indelibly altered by injuries. Prince Fielder (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot-prin…) and Justin Morneau (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot-prin…) preceded Howard. The explainer for my actual Hall of Fame ballot, which went into the mail on December 30, is here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffes-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot/

2:05	Jay Jaffe: Anyhoo, there’s not a lot going on besides Hall stuff given the lockout, so that will be the primary focus of this chat

2:07	Jay Jaffe: He’d be a candidate for the Golden Days Era Committee ballot, and the good news is that a whole lot of space just opened up there, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Past HOF ballot results probably play too big an impact in determining who gets first crack at making those ballots.

Read the rest of this entry »

Chin Music enters 2022 with more prospect talk, which means another co-hosting spot from the always entertaining Eric Longenhagen, as we ramble for two hours and don’t even need a guest to do it. We begin by talking about the current state of the pandemic and if professional baseball is even tenable given these circumstances. Then, after a brief chat about news from the world of media, Eric and I get into the weeds on prospects, with an in-depth discussion about the farm systems of the Blue Jays, Brewers and Tigers, whose prospect lists were published at FanGraphs since we last spoke. Then it’s your emails on failed (or not as failed as you think) top draft picks, prospect trades, and kitchen gadgets, followed by some video game and podcast recommendations. As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening.

Music by Strangelight.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes/Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

Warning One: While ostensibly a podcast about baseball, these conversations often veer into other subjects.

Warning Two: There is explicit language.

Run Time: 2:07:31

Podcast (chin-music): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2022 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

As the Phillies looked to turn the corner from pretenders to contenders in the new millennium, they signed future Hall of Fame slugger Jim Thome to provide some middle-of-the-lineup thump via a six-year, $85 million contract in December 2002. Outwardly at least, they didn’t appear to expect much from their fifth-round 2001 draft pick, a 6-foot-4, 220-pound first baseman with 80-grade raw power but notable contact issues and questions about his defense. Thome’s presence kept Ryan Howard in the minors long enough for him to hit 46 home runs across two levels in 2004, his age-24 season. But when Thome suffered a season-ending elbow injury the following year, Howard stepped in and flat out stole the first base job.

Howard won the NL Rookie of the Year award in his abbreviated 2005 season, leading the Phillies to trade Thome to the White Sox that winter, then followed up by launching 58 homers and claiming NL MVP honors in ’06. He became a cornerstone of the Phillies’ five straight NL East titles from 2007 to ’11, a run that included a World Series win over the Rays in 2008, and another NL pennant in ’09.

At a time before the lessons of Moneyball had been fully absorbed on a league-wide basis, Howard’s big home run and RBI totals led to massive paydays, while his limitations in the field and on the basepaths — which had already become significant factors as he’d filled out to a listed 250 pounds — were overlooked. Unfortunately, an Achilles tendon rupture, suffered on the final play of the 2011 Division Series agains the Cardinals, turned his biggest contract into an albatross. Midway through that deal, an ugly legal fight within his family over the handling of his finances came to light, a heartbreaking turn of events that couldn’t have made his on-field struggles any easier. Read the rest of this entry »