In the abstract, you can never have too much pitching, but managing 26- and 40-man rosters means dealing with practical limits instead of theoretical ones. Last Monday, in the midst of a week in which they would need to call up one starting pitcher and activate two more from the injured list, the Dodgers designated James Paxton for assignment. On Friday, they dealt the 35-year-old lefty to the Red Sox — the team he pitched for last season, and rehabbed from Tommy John surgery with the year before — in exchange for infielder Moises Bolivar, a 17-year-old Venezuela native playing in the Dominican Summer League.

Dogged by so many injuries throughout his 11-year major league career that he’s never topped 29 starts or qualified for the ERA title, Paxton has at least been healthy enough to remain in a rotation all season; his 18 starts and 89.1 innings both rank third on the Dodgers. He did a solid job for Los Angeles at times, but the returns had diminished in recent weeks. After allowing just two runs over an 18-inning span from June 11–24 — lowering his ERA to 3.39, albeit with a 4.78 FIP — Paxton was rocked for nine runs and 12 hits in four innings by the Giants on June 30, beginning a 17.2-inning, 17-run spiral that included 12 walks and three homers over his final four starts in blue. With that run of runs, he finished his stint with the Dodgers with a 4.43 ERA, a 4.96 FIP, a 4.84 xERA, and 0.3 WAR.

Interestingly enough, the last of Paxton’s starts was against the Red Sox in Los Angeles last Sunday. In five innings, Paxton walked four and allowed four hits and three runs while striking out seven. Since it was his 18th start of the season, it meant that he maxed out the $7 million worth of incentives in his one-year deal on top of his $4 million base salary and $3 million signing bonus; he received $2 million for making the Opening Day roster, $1 million for being on the roster on April 15, $600,000 apiece for reaching the 6-, 8-, 10-, 12-, and 16-start milestones, and then $1 million for the 18th. Thus the Red Sox are only paying the prorated share of his base salary, about $1.4 million. Read the rest of this entry »

While trades of relievers at the deadline are rarely the hottest moves featuring the best prospects, there are usually a lot of them. As the summer reaches its peak, contenders start to think about their bullpens down the stretch and beyond, and with modern bullpens seemingly as densely populated as the cover of Sgt. Pepper’s, there’s always room to add a quality arm. Let’s dig through them!

Editor’s Note: This reliever roundup doesn’t include the more recent trades for Carlos Estévez, Nick Mears, and Jason Adam. Ben Clemens will cover those moves in a separate post.)

The Arizona Diamondbacks acquired LHRP A.J. Puk from the Miami Marlins for 1B/3B Deyvison De Los Santos and OF Andrew Pintar

Don’t focus too much on the raw ERA or unimpressive walk rate when judging the merits of Arizona’s trade for A.J. Puk. Partially in response to their myriad rotation injuries in the spring, the Marlins took Puk’s attempt to get back into the rotation seriously, and he started the season there after a successful spring. I still think that was a well-founded experiment, but it didn’t pay dividends for Miami. Puk was absolutely dreadful as a starter, and it wasn’t long before he landed on the IL with shoulder fatigue. His four starts resulted in a 9.22 ERA, a 6.29 FIP, and an alarming 17 walks in 13 2/3 innings. He was moved back to the ’pen upon his return in mid-May, but the damage to his seasonal line was so significant that it still looked underwhelming at the time of the trade (4.30 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 44 IP).

As he has the last few years, Puk has dominated as a reliever; across 30 1/3 relief innings with the Marlins, he had 33 strikeouts and, perhaps most importantly, only six walks. The result was a 2.08 ERA/2.42 FIP, with batters managing a bleak .159/.204/.252 against him. The Diamondbacks are short on lefty relievers, with Joe Mantiply shouldering a very large share of the southpaw burden. Puk has historically been better against righties than Mantiply, so he can be used in more situations.

In return, the offense-starved Marlins pick up a couple of possible bats to add to their farm system. With a .325/.376/.635 and 28 homers combined at two levels in the high minors this year, Deyvison De Los Santos looks impressive at first look, but it’s important to contextualize those numbers. He’s playing in some very high offensive environments and there’s a lot of hot air to remove from those numbers to turn them into expected MLB performance. ZiPS translates his 2024 minor league performance to .263/.302/.428 in the majors and projects for wRC+ lines between 95 and 110 in the coming years with the Marlins. Now, that’s enough for the Marlins to be interested in him and chase any upside, but don’t be shocked if he’s not an offensive force.

Similarly, ZiPS translates Andrew Pintar’s season at .235/.302/.365 and doesn’t see a ton of growth from him offensively, viewing him as most likely to be a spare outfielder if he reaches the majors. I talked a bit with my colleague Eric Longenhagen about him on Friday and Eric still grades Pintar as a fifth-outfielder type, which is about how ZiPS evaluates him. Still, as with De Los Santos, Pintar’s interesting enough for a team like the Marlins to take a chance on him and give him an extended look; projections are frequently wrong, after all, by design!

The Seattle Mariners acquired RHRP Yimi García from the Toronto Blue Jays for OF Jonatan Clase and C Jacob Sharp

With the Blue Jays as short-term sellers, it’s hardly surprising to see them trade Yimi García, who is a free agent at the end of the season. His three-year, $16 million deal turned out to be a success for the Jays; he’s been worth 2.7 WAR and put up a 3.44 ERA/3.28 FIP over 163 appearances across two-plus seasons. This season has arguably been his best, as he’s striking out nearly 13 batters per nine innings. With Gregory Santos limping a bit after a knee injury – not believed to be severe – García slots in behind Andrés Muñoz in the Mariners’ bullpen pecking order. Seattle’s relief corps has been in the middle of the pack, but adding García to a group that features Muñoz, a healthy Santos, and Taylor Saucedo gives the M’s an excellent quartet of high-leverage guys, which could be crucial in what’s shaping up to be a tight AL West race.

Jonatan Clase was listed with a FV of 40 earlier this month when Eric ran down the top Mariners prospects, but with Julio Rodríguez entrenched in center field and backed up by other outfielders who can capably cover the position (namely Victor Robles, Cade Marlowe, and even, in a pinch, newly acquired Randy Arozarena), Clase’s ability to do so was simply less valuable in Seattle. Beyond that, the team needs more thump in its lineup at this point, and that’s not Clase’s speciality. For the Jays, Kevin Kiermaier is a free agent after the season and the organization has a real lack of center field candidates anywhere near the majors. ZiPS projects Clase at .218/.291/.373 with an 84 wRC+ for 2025 but views him as an above-average defensive center fielder, suggesting that he’s at least a reasonable stopgap option or a useful role player for Toronto. Jacob Sharp has been off the radar as a prospect, a fairly small catcher who is hitting decently well, albeit as a 22-year-old in A-ball.

The New York Mets acquired RHRP Ryne Stanek from the Seattle Mariners for OF Rhylan Thomas

The Mets have an extremely unimpressive bullpen once you get past Edwin Díaz, and now that they are firmly in contention for an NL Wild Card spot this season, they are looking to improve their relief corps. Ryne Stanek hasn’t excelled in Seattle, but the veteran reliever still throws in the high-90s, is durable, and misses bats. Guys like that will always resurface. Especially after trading for García, the Mariners have better options than Stanek to pitch in high-leverage, non-save situations. But that’s not the case in Queens, and he’s a welcome addition to the bullpen.

Rhylan Thomas isn’t a high price to pay and he largely fills a similar role to the departed Clase in Seattle’s organization, though he’s a different type of player. As a high-contact hitter, Thomas may fare well in pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. ZiPS sees Thomas as a .263/.313/.333 hitter with plus defense in the corners in 2025.

The Tampa Bay Rays acquired RHRP Cole Sulser from the New York Mets for cash

Cole Sulser is a relative soft-tosser who relies on deception. He had a big breakout season in 2021, but after a trade to the Marlins, he struggled with his command in ’22 and had his season marred by a lat injury that landed him on the 60-day IL. A shoulder injury ruined his 2023 and he’s spent ’24 trying to rehabilitate his value in the minors for the Mets, with mixed results. This is the third time the Rays have traded for Sulser in his career, so they seem to see something in him, and given Tampa Bay’s record with random relievers, I wouldn’t be shocked if he became useful for the Rays next season.

Cash is slang for currency, which can be exchanged for goods and services. It can be vulnerable to inflation, and because of this, it doesn’t represent a stable medium of exchange in some countries. But cash also has the benefit of being very flexible.

The Chicago Cubs acquired RHRP Nate Pearson from the Toronto Blue Jays for OF Yohendrick Pinango

Nate Pearson was rightly a hot prospect back in the day, and there were good reasons to think he’d play a key role in Toronto. Both scouts (he graduated at a FV of 55 here) and projections (ZiPS was a fan) thought a lot of his abilities, but the question was how he’d hold up physically as a starter. This worry turned out to be a real issue, and for the most part since 2019, his seasons have been marred by a wide variety of nagging injuries, costing him significant development time. Pearson throws hard, but he’s still rather raw, a problem given that he turns 28 in a few weeks and he has only two years left of club control after this one — not a lot of time for a reclamation project. The Cubs have decided to take a shot at fixing him. They are short-term sellers, but if Pearson pays off, he could be a significant player for their ’pen in 2025 and ’26.

Yohendrick Pinango is rather raw as well, a corner outfielder with decent power upside who hasn’t really shown that home run pop in the minors so far. The Cubs are kind of stacked with raw, interesting outfield prospects, while the Jays are rather short of them, making Toronto a better home for Pinango. ZiPS only translates Pinango’s 2024 season to a .344 slugging percentage; he hit well in High-A, but that was as a 22-year-old in his third stint there. Like Pearson, Pinango’s a lottery ticket.

After the Orioles made two trades on Friday afternoon, the old-money machine has sputtered to life with 72 hours until the trade deadline. The New York Yankees have acquired center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. from the Miami Marlins in exchange for three prospects: Triple-A catcher Agustin Ramirez is the headline name, but the Marlins also get A-ball infielder Jared Serna, along with Abrahan Ramirez from the Yankees’ Complex League team.

Having a player named Jazz on the Yankees is like Christmas morning for the folks who write headlines for the New York Post. If I could have any job in mass media, it’d be writing back page headlines for… probably not literally the Post, but a tabloid with a slightly more erudite tone.

I bring up the tabloids because any conversation about Chisholm seems to end up being a conversation about the conversation about Chisholm, so let’s get that out of the way first. Read the rest of this entry »

After a somewhat slow start to this year’s trade deadline, one of the better pitchers available has a new team, with Zach Eflin heading from Tropicana Field to the land of Old Bay and Natty Boh. (That’s Baltimore, for those of you unfamiliar with properly seasoned shellfish and/or nostalgic mass-market budget lager.) Heading back to the Rays from the Orioles are three prospects, right-handed starter Jackson Baumeister, infielder Mac Horvath, and outfielder Matthew Etzel. In his second season with the Rays, Eflin has a 4.09 ERA and 3.65 FIP over 19 starts, good for 1.8 WAR.

Entering the season, the depth of Baltimore’s rotation was something of a concern. Acquiring Corbin Burnes in his walk year did a lot to alleviate the situation, and with the seventh-best ERA and 10th-best WAR in baseball, the rotation hasn’t really hindered the Orioles’ quest to win their first World Series trophy since I was just a wee cynical kindergartener. Still, despite their positive starting pitching rankings, the water has gotten pretty choppy. Both Kyle Bradish and John Means underwent Tommy John surgery in June, and Tyler Wells is out for the season after an internal brace surgery on his UCL in . Further complicating matters is the fact that Cole Irvin, a pleasant surprise in the season’s early going, had a worse June than the Soviet army in 1941. Cade Povich was decidedly mediocre in his debut and was optioned to Triple-A earlier this month, and Chayce McDermott still has command issues to iron out. The team has good reason to expect more from those two in the future, but that future isn’t going arrive this week, and the team needed a bit more certainty in the rotation behind Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez. Read the rest of this entry »

Count me among those who worried that, with about 12 teams in the National League playoff hunt in the week before the trade deadline, there might not be enough sellers to kickstart a trade market. Well, the Philadelphia Phillies — who have the best record in baseball — and the Baltimore Orioles — who are tied for the best record in the American League — have come together and said, “To heck with all that.”

The Orioles are sending outfielder Austin Hays north in exchange for reliever Seranthony Domínguez and outfielder Cristian Pache. This being a transaction between Baltimore and Philadelphia, I assume there’s a quantity of Old Bay changing hands in the deal, but how much is as yet unspecified.

An exchange of three major leaguers between two first-place teams? Hallelujah, a challenge trade! Read the rest of this entry »

The Mariners have suffered through a pretty terrible stretch over the last five or so weeks. After blowing a 10-game lead in the AL West during a 24-game span — the quickest that any team has ever surrendered such a large divisional lead — they enter play Friday a game behind the first-place Astros and 3.5 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot. Over their last 30 games, they’ve gone 10-20 and have scored a measly 3.4 runs per game while their pitching staff has allowed the fewest runs in the American League. Things got worse earlier this week, when they were swept by the Angels and lost both Julio Rodríguez and J.P. Crawford to injuries. Rodríguez sprained his right ankle and there is no timetable for his return; Crawford, who fractured his right pinky, is expected to miss 4-6 weeks. Even before those two core pieces of the beleaguered lineup landed on the injured list, Seattle desperately needed an infusion of talent onto their roster.

With that need exacerbated by those two injuries, the M’s wasted very little time making their first addition ahead of Tuesday’s trade deadline: On Thursday night, they acquired outfielder Randy Arozarena from the Rays. In exchange, Tampa Bay received minor league outfielder Aidan Smith (40 FV), right-handed pitcher Brody Hopkins (45+ FV), and a player to be named later. Dan Szymborski put together a hypothetical version of this trade just a few days ago and nailed all the broad strokes: The Mariners got the offensive upgrade they needed and the Rays got some really interesting prospects that they can now sculpt.

The former AL Rookie of the Year and All-Star got off to a agonizingly slow start to the season; through the first month of play, he was slashing .143/.220/.241 with three home runs, a strikeout rate just a hair below 30%, and a 37 wRC+. He started to pull himself out of his slump in May (104 wRC+) but was still underperforming. Since June 1, though, he’s been one of the hottest hitters in the league, putting together a .284/.397/.507 slash line with seven home runs and a 161 wRC+ across 179 plate appearances.

As Jay Jaffe noted back in April when he checked in on Arozarena’s woes, and then again during his replacement level killers series last week, “Rays hitting coach Chad Mottola had expressed the belief that Arozarena’s desire to use the whole field more often, in an effort to make himself an even better hitter, may have backfired.”

That change in approach might be related to his diminished contact rate early in the season, particularly on pitches in the strike zone.

His rebound in June and July aligns pretty clearly with his ability to put the bat on the ball when pitchers leave their pitches over the plate. And thankfully, almost all of his other plate discipline metrics are either improved or within range of his established norms.

He’s still making excellent swing decisions at the plate — his SEAGER is in the 84th percentile among all batters this year — and his batted ball metrics are as solid as ever. That two-month funk to start the season is dragging his overall offensive line way down, but make no mistake, it certainly appears as though Arozarena has put those struggles behind him.

He’ll immediately slot into the middle of the Mariners lineup as their regular left fielder and will give them a potent bat to help protect Rodríguez whenever he returns while providing dynamic run production himself. Perhaps more importantly for Seattle, Arozarena won’t reach free agency until 2027; he’s making $8.1 million this season, his second year of arbitration. The organization has developed a mostly homegrown rotation that has emerged as one of the best in the majors, but over the last few years, the Mariners have been reluctant to use free agency to improve their lineup. That makes it imperative for the front office to be aggressive on the trade market to acquire impact batters who can help the Mariners not just this season but throughout this competitive window, before their group of pitchers either breaks down or becomes too expensive to keep together. Arozarena boosts this lineup now and in the future.

For the Rays, this trade comes at an interesting time. They’re actually only a half game behind the M’s in the AL Wild Card standings and their pitching staff is getting a lot healthier. Shane Baz just came back from his Tommy John rehab earlier this month, Jeffrey Springs should be returning to the majors within a week or so, and Drew Rasmussen isn’t that far behind Springs. Tampa Bay has been hovering on the edge of the AL playoff picture for nearly the entire season, but a late-season surge wouldn’t have been out of the question. By moving Arozarena at this point in the season, the Rays have indicated that they’re more interested in ensuring they’re set up well for the future than in hoping for a long-shot playoff run over the next few months.

The timing also says a lot about what they think of the prospects they’re getting in this deal. Arozarena’s escalating salary now that he’s in the middle of his arbitration seasons had made him an obvious trade candidate this year, but the Rays could have waited until the offseason to move him if they didn’t like the players they were getting in return. That they acted now indicates they liked this package enough to pounce on it five days before the trade deadline. On the very fresh Mariners prospect list that Eric Longenhagen recently put together, Hopkins was ranked seventh and Smith 21st.

In a Seattle organization that is notorious for helping pitchers develop into the best versions of themselves, Longenhagen called Hopkins the most exciting pitching prospect in the system. He’s a converted outfielder who was selected in the sixth round of last year’s amateur draft and is still very new to pitching. He’s got a low-slot release with some deception in his mechanics, and that arm slot creates a ton of ride and life on his mid-90s heater and gives him a wipeout slider that flashes plus. He still needs to develop a third pitch to flesh out his repertoire to reach his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter, but even if he doesn’t, he appears to have a pretty nice floor as a two-pitch high-leverage reliever. He’s already 22 years old, which makes him pretty old for Single-A, where the Mariners had placed him in their organization, but as he gains development time as a pitcher, he should move quickly up the ladder.

As for Smith, he was Seattle’s fourth-round pick in last year’s draft and has hit very well in his brief professional career. A prep selection out of Texas, he’s an athletic outfielder with plenty of speed to stick in center field. He was slashing .284/.402/.470 at Single-A Modesto, and it looks like he had made the necessary adjustments to his swing to improve his feel for contact. He’s a ways away from the majors, but his physical projection and successful start to his minor league career were both intriguing enough for Tampa Bay to take a chance on him.

Even with Arozarena in the fold, the Mariners should not be done adding to their roster. Their offensive issues are too deep to be solved by one player. Even after moving Hopkins and Smith, Seattle has enough highly regarded prospects available to move for another big splash. They’ve been linked to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over the last few days — both would be significant upgrades to the black holes the Mariners are running out at second and first base this year. Given the Mariners’ place in the standings and the state of their roster and farm system, this move for Arozarena should not preclude them from continuing to improve their offense over the next few days.

As is tradition at FanGraphs, we’re using the lead-up to the trade deadline to take stock of the top 50 players in baseball by trade value. For a more detailed introduction to this year’s exercise, as well as a look at the players who fell just short of the top 50, be sure to read the Introduction and Honorable Mentions piece, which can be found in the widget above.

For those of you who have been reading the Trade Value Series the last few seasons, the format should look familiar. For every player, you’ll see a table with the player’s projected five-year WAR from 2025-2029, courtesy of Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections. The table will also include the player’s guaranteed money, if any, the year through which their team has contractual control of them, last year’s rank (if applicable), and then projections, contract status, and age for each individual season through 2029 (assuming the player is under contract or team control for those seasons). Last year’s rank includes a link to the relevant 2023 post. Thanks are due to Sean Dolinar for his technical wizardry. At the bottom of the page, there is a grid showing all of the players who have been ranked up to this point.

A note on the rankings: As we ascend towards the top of the list, the tiers matter more and more. There are clear gaps in value. Don’t get too hung up on what number a player is, because who they’re grouped with is a more important indicator. There are three distinct tiers in today’s group of 10 players, and I think they have clearly different valuations; I’d prefer everyone in a given tier over everyone below it, but I’m far less certain within each group. I’ll note places where I disagreed meaningfully with people I spoke with in calibrating this list, and I’ll also note players whose value was the subject of disagreement among my contacts. As I mentioned in the Introduction and Honorable Mentions piece, I’ll indicate tier breaks between players where appropriate, both in their capsules and bolded in the table at the end of the piece.

With that out of the way, let’s get to the final batch of players. Read the rest of this entry »

As is tradition at FanGraphs, we’re using the lead-up to the trade deadline to take stock of the top 50 players in baseball by trade value. For a more detailed introduction to this year’s exercise, as well as a look at the players who fell just short of the top 50, be sure to read the Introduction and Honorable Mentions piece, which can be found in the widget above.

For those of you who have been reading the Trade Value Series the last few seasons, the format should look familiar. For every player, you’ll see a table with the player’s projected five-year WAR from 2025-2029, courtesy of Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections. The table will also include the player’s guaranteed money, if any, the year through which their team has contractual control of them, last year’s rank (if applicable), and then projections, contract status, and age for each individual season through 2029 (assuming the player is under contract or team control for those seasons). Last year’s rank includes a link to the relevant 2023 post. Thanks are due to Sean Dolinar for his technical wizardry. At the bottom of the page, there is a grid showing all of the players who have been ranked up to this point.

A note on the rankings: As we ascend towards the top of the list, the tiers matter more and more. There are clear gaps in value. Don’t get too caught up on what number a player is, because who they’re grouped with is a more important indicator. The gap between no. 20 and 19 is next to nothing; between 11 and 10, it’s much steeper. I’ll note places where I disagreed meaningfully with people I spoke with in calibrating this list, and I’ll also note players whose value was the subject of disagreement among my contacts. As I mentioned in the Introduction and Honorable Mentions piece, I’ll indicate tier breaks between players where appropriate, both in their capsules and bolded in the table at the end of the piece.

With that out of the way, let’s get to the next batch of players. Read the rest of this entry »

We now have less than a week until the the July 30 trade deadline, and so far, not much has happened other than the Hunter Harvey trade before the All-Star break. That ought to (hopefully) change in coming days, unless we’re witnessing the heat death of the baseball universe.

As is my habit, I have suggested eight trades that teams should to consider in some form to fulfill their short-term and long-term organizational goals. I’ve tried to make broadly fair proposals in the context of historical deadline trades, but your mileage may vary. Please note that I am not reporting these as trades that are currently being discussed by respective front offices, and if you report these as such, you hereby waive all rights not to receive an ironic visit from an antagonist from a German fairy tale.

Let us know what you think about these ideas and feel free to add your own in the comments!

The Baltimore Orioles acquire P Garrett Crochet from the White Sox for 3B/1B Coby Mayo, OF Enrique Bradfield Jr., and P Chayce McDermott

I know the White Sox are dreaming of a mega-package in return from Garrett Crochet, who is a legitimate Cy Young candidate this season, but I just can’t see them doing better for Crochet than they did for Dylan Cease. I would argue that Coby Mayo, if he had been included in the Cease trade through some kind of weirdness in the space-time continuum, would have been the most valuable prospect involved, more so than Drew Thorpe was at the time. I’m sure the Sox would prefer a comparable pitching prospect to Mayo than Mayo, but I’m not sure the teams most likely to go after Crochet have that available. Mayo is likely to be an impact bat, even if he isn’t going to stick at third base. He also should to be able to contribute quickly, which appears to be (confusingly) an important goal for the White Sox, even though they are in a generally worse position than they think they’re in.

The White Sox may counter and say that they expect a return similar to the Chris Sale trade, but I can’t imagine any team doing that. Sale at the time was a much more established pitcher than Crochet is currently, and he also wasn’t a year removed from a significant elbow injury, as is the case with Crochet. The O’s are in a situation in which they can justify being even more aggressive than this, but to include more name brand talent than this starts to make the trade look quite a bit riskier. Enrique Bradfield Jr. and Chayce McDermott are ranked seventh and eighth, respectively, in the Orioles’ system — 45+ FV guys but not Top 100 Prospects. I do get the impression that at the end of the day, the White Sox don’t have to be completely bowled over to trade Crochet, while the Tigers may very well need to be for Tarik Skubal, the best lefty pitcher who might be available.

The Houston Astros acquire 3B/1B Isaac Paredes from the Tampa Bay Rays for OF Jacob Melton, SS Alberto Hernandez, OF Luis Baez, and P Alimber Santa

Corner infielder Isaac Paredes is arguably the best bat likely to be available at the deadline, so it’s hard for the Astros not to have serious interest given the utter wreck that first base has been for them this year (.205/.276/.317). While one of the prime artisans of that triple-slash, José Abreu, is gone, Jon Singleton is not much of an improvement, and at 32, he’s hardly the future of the position. Paredes, who has three years left until he hits free agency, would fill that short-term need at first and also provide the Astros with an option to replace third baseman Alex Bregman if he doesn’t re-sign with the team.

While Houston has reasons to be interested in Paredes, do they have enough to offer? I think that’s the key question here, because the farm system is pretty poorly stacked at the moment. I don’t think there’s any way the Astros can pull off this trade without giving up their top prospect Jacob Melton, who is ranked no. 78 overall, or Jake Bloss, their top pitching prospect and no. 100 on our Top 100 list. Even if one of those two are included, the Astros would have to send along a few other guys who offer enough upside to make it a worthwhile deal for the Rays. I kinda see Alimber Santa as one of those hard throwers with poor command that the Rays suddenly make into elite relievers after a midseason call-up. I could also see the Rays asking for Shay Whitcomb, who fits in with their organization’s long-term embrace of unheralded Joey Wendle-type infielders who hit in the upper minors and get no attention around the league. ZiPS has actually been rather enamored with Whitcomb for a while. The Rays have bled a lot of outfield bats over the last few years and, in addition to Melton, Luis Baez would help them restock. On top of that, Tampa Bay likes upside, and while I’m a José Caballero fan, Alberto Hernandez certainly has upside. With Jeremy Peña and Jose Altuve, Houston can spare middle infield prospects, even really good ones.

The Los Angeles Dodgers acquire RHP Jack Flaherty from the Detroit Tigers for LHP Justin Wrobleski and SS Trey Sweeney

The Tigers are no doubt asking for the moon for Skubal, but they don’t have the same need to do so for Jack Flaherty, a free agent at the end of the season. Flaherty’s been terrific this year, but he’s also a rental, and teams don’t usually give up their best for players on expiring contracts these days. I kinda wanted to center this trade around one of the Dodgers’ many young catchers, probably Thayron Liranzo, or an infielder on the rise like Alex Freeland, but that just seemed a bit too rich for them to give up for two months of Flaherty’s services. The good news is the Dodgers have an extremely deep farm system, so if a trade like this were to be discussed, there are myriad ways to get Detroit interested, even if it’s not exactly these two mid-tier prospects. Justin Wrobleski is probably too much of an innings eater for the Dodgers, who prefer to juggle high-end pitching talents based on who’s healthy, and although Trey Sweeney has been passed by other players in the organization, the Tigers could still use him in their system.

I think it would be a mistake if the Dodgers didn’t add a pitcher before the deadline. Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s goal to make it back before the playoffs is not an auspicious sign, and even with Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Glasnow returning from injuries, I think the team would be well-served to have another fairly hardy pitcher in the mix for the playoffs.

The Seattle Mariners acquire 1B Yandy Díaz and OF Randy Arozarena from the Tampa Rays for RHP Logan Evans, RHP Emerson Hancock, and RHP Michael Morales

This trade depends on the status of Yandy Díaz, who is currently on the restricted list for a personal issue, but I’m assuming that will be resolved fairly soon. If not, then I’d still be in favor of a scaled back trade in which the Mariners acquired Randy Arozarena. Rays fans might be underwhelmed by the lack of a huge name coming back in the deal, but I don’t think Díaz and Arozarena really have the same trade value they had a year ago, and we project both players to finish with just short of two WAR for the 2024 season. But I think they each hold decent value for the Mariners considering how bad their offense has been this season. The Mitch Haniger reunion hasn’t worked out, and first baseman Tyler Locklear is likely a worse hitter in the short term than Díaz. Additionally, both Díaz and Arozarena have some cost control remaining. The Rays like interesting pitching prospects the way that sculptors like marble, and the M’s are one of the few teams that can provide them without impacting to their long-term roster. Three of those interesting lesser pitching prospects are righties Logan Evans, Emerson Hancock, and Michael Morales. Paredes would probably be an even better pickup for the Mariners, who really need a bat, but I already gave Paredes to the Astros.

The St. Louis Cardinals acquire RHP Nathan Eovaldi from the Texas Rangers for RHP Sem Robberse and C Pedro Pagés

I’m still unsure what the Rangers plan to do next week, but should they decided that retooling isn’t a dirty word for them, Nathan Eovaldi is one of the logical players to trade. Technically, he has a vesting player option for 2025 at $20 million, but I’m not sure that’s really a factor here; Eovaldi’s on target to meet the 300 innings requirement should things go well this summer, and if they do, he’ll be in a position to do a lot better than a single year at $20 million. Like Flaherty, there are no moons to acquire for two months of Eovaldi, but I think the Rangers could do a lot worse than two mid-tier prospects who aren’t years away from the big leagues. Pedro Pagés doesn’t have an obvious place in St. Louis and would be a more effective long-term caddy for Jonah Heim than current Texas backup Andrew Knizner, and the Rangers have a farm system that is lighter on starting pitchers than position players. I like Sem Robberse, but the Cardinals are full of no. 3 and 4 starters, and a healthy mid-rotation arm may simply be more valuable to the Rangers than to the Cards.

The New York Mets acquire RHP Carlos Estévez and LHP Reid Detmers from the Los Angeles Angels for RHP Blade Tidwell, SS/OF Luisangel Acuña, and OF Ryan Clifford

Carlos Estévez is one of the best relievers available at the deadline – and a pure rental – and if the Mets are interested in pushing for a wild card, as I believe they are, shoring up a weak bullpen is a good place to improve. I’m also a big fan of Reid Detmers. He’s commonly talked about as a “reclamation project,” but I think there’s good evidence to say that this year in the majors he pitched better than his surface-level stats showed. No competent major league pitcher is “truly” a .333 BABIP pitcher. Before being demoted, Detmers was having his best season yet in terms of missing bats, and I think he fits in the middle of the Mets rotation both immediately and over the next few years. Maybe I’m underrating the Angels as an organization, but I don’t think they would need a marquee prospect to make this trade, so I’m not going to throw one in willy-nilly. Blade Tidwell has struggled a little with command at Triple-A, but he ought to stick as a starter, and ZiPS is a pretty big fan of him long term. Luisangel Acuña is a tantalizing athlete who hasn’t really hit since he was traded to the Mets organization, and Ryan Clifford boasts plus power and has performed well at Double-A this year, but he strikes out a lot and doesn’t offer much defensively.

The San Diego Padres acquire LHP Yusei Kikuchi and RHP Yimi García from the Toronto Blue Jays for IF Eguy Rosario, C Brandon Valenzuela, and OF Homer Bush Jr.

With Yu Darvish out for personal reasons and Joe Musgrove’s exact timetable for a return still up in the air, the Padres could use an extra starting pitcher. Yusei Kikuchi is no ace, but he’s been solid the last two years and has pitched better than his raw ERA this season. He’s also a free agent at the end of the season, which makes him more movable for the Blue Jays than either Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette, as I think 2025 is still very important to the Jays. The back of San Diego’s bullpen is also less than enthralling, and a Yimi García acquisition would give them more heft for the very wide open NL Wild Card race.

Naturally, neither Kikuchi nor García merit a top prospect in return, but they should at least get an interesting package. ZiPS actually likes Eguy Rosario quite a bit, projecting him for a 97 wRC+ in 2025 with +5 fielding runs at third, good enough to be a league-average player and help the Jays retool for next season. A healthy Manny Machado greatly reduces Rosario’s utility to the Padres. Danny Jansen is a free agent after the season and the Jays are short in prospects both behind the plate and in the outfield, and Brandon Valenzuela and Homer Bush Jr. are the types of 40ish prospects that frequently go in trades like this.

The New York Yankees acquire RHP Chad Green from the Toronto Blue Jays for IF Jared Serna

I’d be surprised if the Yankees weren’t after a late-inning arm, and they have a good history with Chad Green. I also think Green is unlikely to require a large price despite his solid ERA; his strikeout rate has fallen considerably and it’s backed largely by hitters making a lot more contact. Even before you consider Bichette’s free agency after next season, the Jays are in need of infield depth; I don’t think they see Addison Barger as a long-term middle infielder, but Jared Serna could fill that role.

Amusingly, Isiah Kiner-Falefa is having a strong season and would be useful for the Yankees at third base, but because the Jays need infield depth and might want to retool for 2025 rather than rebuild, they might choose to keep IKF, who is signed through next season.

As is tradition at FanGraphs, we’re using the lead-up to the trade deadline to take stock of the top 50 players in baseball by trade value. For a more detailed introduction to this year’s exercise, as well as a look at the players who fell just short of the top 50, be sure to read the Introduction and Honorable Mentions piece, which can be found in the widget above.

For those of you who have been reading the Trade Value Series the last few seasons, the format should look familiar. For every player, you’ll see a table with the player’s projected five-year WAR from 2025-2029, courtesy of Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections. The table will also include the player’s guaranteed money, if any, the year through which their team has contractual control of them, last year’s rank (if applicable), and then projections, contract status, and age for each individual season through 2029 (assuming the player is under contract or team control for those seasons). Last year’s rank includes a link to the relevant 2023 post. Thanks are due to Sean Dolinar for his technical wizardry. At the bottom of the page, there is a grid showing all of the players who have been ranked up to this point.

A note on the rankings: As we ascend towards the top of the list, the tiers matter more and more. There are clear gaps in value. Don’t get too caught up on what number a player is, because who they’re grouped with is a more important indicator. The gap between no. 20 and 19 is next to nothing; between 12 and 11, it’s much steeper. I’ll note places where I disagreed meaningfully with people I spoke with in calibrating this list, and I’ll also note players whose value was the subject of disagreement among my contacts. As I mentioned in the Introduction and Honorable Mentions piece, I’ll indicate tier breaks between players where appropriate, both in their capsules and bolded in the table at the end of the piece.

With that out of the way, let’s get to the next batch of players. Read the rest of this entry »