When Bo Bichette sprained the posterior collateral ligament of his left knee on September 6 in a home plate collision with Yankees catcher Austin Wells, both the ramifications of his injury and the upcoming World Series were mere abstractions. Bichette remained in that game, postgame X-rays ruled out a fracture, and at the time a cut on his left shin appeared to be the worst of the damage he sustained. While the Blue Jays were not only atop the AL East at the time but also positioned as the league’s top seed, the team — as you’ve heard a million times by now — hadn’t played in a World Series since 1993, and hadn’t won a postseason game since 2016.

Seven weeks later, Toronto is matched up against the defending champion Dodgers, and after missing the final three weeks of the regular season and the Blue Jays’ first two playoff series, the 27-year-old Bichette has been shoehorned into the lineup, albeit under significant limitations. An experiment with him playing second base for the first time in six years has largely worked, and on Tuesday night, Bichette — slotted as the designated hitter with George Springer sidelined by “right side discomfort” following a violent swing in Game 3 — contributed a key hit in a 6-2 victory that helped the Jays rebound from their 18-inning loss the night before and even the World Series at two games apiece.

Bichette’s hit came during Toronto’s four-run seventh inning. Leading 2-1 thanks to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s third-inning homer off Shohei Ohtani, the Jays opened the seventh with a single by Daulton Varsho and a double by Ernie Clement, spelling the end of the two-way superstar’s night on the mound. Lefty Anthony Banda took over for Ohtani, allowed an RBI single to Andrés Giménez, collected a pair of outs that nonetheless brought home Clement with the Blue Jays’ fourth run, and intentionally walked Guerrero. To the chagrin of every Dodgers fan, manager Dave Roberts then called upon right-hander Blake Treinen, who entered having allowed 14 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings over the past seven weeks. Read the rest of this entry »

After a marathon Game 3 on Monday night (and into Tuesday morning), both the Blue Jays and the Dodgers were hoping for length from their starters in Game 4. The Dodgers looked more likely to get it. Toronto starter Shane Bieber lasted just 3 2/3 innings in Game 4 of the ALCS, his most recent start. In fact, he went more than five innings just once over his past four starts, running a 4.96 ERA over that stretch. Los Angeles starter Shohei Ohtani, well, he’s Shohei Ohtani. He had gone exactly six innings in each of his last three starts. He had allowed just three total runs over his past five appearances for an ERA of 1.01. Had Ohtani gone just six innings and no more on Tuesday night, Game 4 might have gone very differently. Instead, the Blue Jays offense exploded for four insurance runs in the seventh inning, and with a convincing 6-2 win, they pulled the World Series into a 2-2 tie.

After the prolonged weirdness of Game 3, Game 4 looked much more familiar. The starters struggled a bit early, then settled down. One team asked a little too much of its starter, then paid the price for bringing in the wrong reliever. You know, like a baseball game. The momentum certainly looked to belong to the Dodgers. They were at home, they’d won two in a row, and they had Ohtani lined up to pitch coming off some of the best performances of his unbelievable career. After a swing during Game 3 resulted in an injury that walks like an oblique strain and talks like an oblique strain and is currently being referred to as right side discomfort, the Blue Jays were without George Springer, both their leadoff man and their best hitter during the regular season. They had taxed their bullpen more thoroughly on Monday, and they had endured the psychic toll of losing that 18-inning marathon. Luckily for the Blue Jays, momentum is mostly a construct.

The Dodgers kicked off the scoring in the bottom of the second. After a one-out walk by Max Muncy, Tommy Edman ripped a single up the middle. Knowing that Daulton Varsho’s surgically repaired right arm is particularly weak, Muncy didn’t hesitate, charging around second (and nearly slipping and falling when he tried to stick the landing on a pop-up slide into third). It’s always a little bit fun to be a baserunner on the base that you’re entrusted to defend. You’re in your normal spot, but the perspective is totally different. It’s kind of like when you were a kid and your parents let you bring your sleeping bag into the living room so that you could go camping in your own house.

Sorry, where were we? The Dodgers had runners on the corners with one out, and Enrique Hernández did what Enrique Hernández does in October. He lifted a sacrifice fly into right field to give the Dodgers a 1-0 lead. The first time through the lineup, Bieber had allowed one run, one hit, and two walks. He had struck out no one. Three of the Dodgers’ seven batted balls were hard-hit.

But Ohtani was about to run into his own trouble. He only had one strikeout the first time through the lineup, and his velocity was down compared to his regular season average (though manager Dave Roberts would say during an in-game interview that Ohtani was intentionally throttling back). He hadn’t allowed much hard contact, but that changed quickly. In the top of the third, Nathan Lukes tomahawked a high fastball into right field for a one-out single. Ohtani then hung a sweeper high and right over the middle to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is not, strictly speaking, the kind of person to whom you want to hang a sweeper high and right over the middle. Guerrero unloaded on the cement mixer. The vicious swing sent his helmet rattling around atop his head and the baseball beyond the left field wall to give the Blue Jays a 2-1 lead:

Both pitchers started to figure it out. Ohtani allowed just one baserunner from the fourth inning to the sixth, at one point striking out four straight Blue Jays swinging. Bieber allowed just two baserunners from the third to the fourth, but he ran into trouble in the sixth. Freddie Freeman led off with a laser down the first base line that Guerrero couldn’t quite corral on the short hop. Will Smith followed up with a sharp lineout to center. After a couple hard-hit balls, manager John Schneider came out to the mound, but Bieber convinced him that at just 80 pitches, he was good to stay in the game. Teoscar Hernández immediately made him look like a liar, sending the 81st pitch into center for a line drive single. The Dodgers had runners on first and second with one out, and Schneider came back for the ball.

Left-handed rookie Mason Fluharty appeared for the third time in the series, and he slammed the door on the potential rally, inducing a fly out from Muncy and striking out Edman swinging. That closed the book on Bieber, who finished the night with one earned run over 5 1/3 innings. Despite walking three, allowing eight hard-hit balls, and striking out just three, he allowed just four hits and would end up with the win.

Ohtani’s night ended soon after Bieber’s. Varsho led off the seventh with a single to right field, and then Ernie Clement ripped a double off the wall in left center. Varsho hesitated for a moment as he rounded second base to make sure that the ball wouldn’t be caught, and ended up at third. Roberts called on Anthony Banda to get the Dodgers out of the jam. Although he’d retired 11 of the past 12 batters before the seventh inning, Ohtani’s night was over (at least, as a pitcher).

With runners on second and third and no outs, the Dodgers brought their infield in. The Blue Jays just needed to get the ball into the outfield to score a run. Andrés Giménez did just that, reaching out on a slider and dumping a single into left. The Blue Jays led 3-1 and still had runners on the corners. After Isiah Kiner-Falefa lined out (temporarily into a double play, until the call was overturned on replay), Schneider sent Ty France up to pinch-hit for the left-handed Lukes. France knocked in a run with a weak inside-out grounder to second base. That closed the book on Ohtani, who was credited with four earned runs over six innings. He struck out six, while allowing six hits and one walk. The Blue Jays had tacked on two big insurance runs to bring their lead to 4-1.

With a pair of right-handed hitters in Guerrero and Bo Bichette due up and the game threatening to get away from the Dodgers, Roberts intentionally walked Guerrero and pulled Banda. To the dismay of Dodger fans everywhere, he called upon Blake Treinen, who came into the game with a 9.00 ERA this postseason. Bichette greeted him with a rocket off the left field wall to score Giménez, and Addison Barger followed up with a single into left to score Guerrero. The haters said he couldn’t do it, and they were right. The Blue Jays led 6-1:

From there, Chris Bassitt held the Dodgers scoreless in the seventh and eighth. Louis Varland made things interesting, allowing Edman to cut the lead to 6-2 on an RBI groundout before retiring the final two Dodgers. Four Blue Jays – Guerrero, Lukes, Barger, and Clement – finished the night with two hits, while the Dodgers combined for just six hits total. They’ll still have home advantage in Game 5. With two-time Cy Young Blake Snell lined up to face rookie Trey Yesavage, they’ll have the starting pitching advantage as well. But after four games, this World Series is looking mighty even, and it’s now assured to end back in Toronto.

John Schneider loves intentional walks. He intentionally walks Aaron Judge more than anyone else. He intentionally walked Cal Raleigh with the bases empty in the ALCS. So he must have felt very strange when the first two games of the World Series passed without a single intentional walk of Shohei Ohtani, a man who has been intentionally walked repeatedly this postseason even though he was mired in a deep slump early on. Now that he’s hotter than the sun, Schneider was no doubt ready to go to his preferred tactic as soon as the situation presented itself.

And oh, did it present itself! Yesterday, the Dodgers and Blue Jays played 18 innings to settle Game 3. Ohtani opened the game with a double, a home run, another double, and another home run, the last hit a game-tying solo shot in the seventh. That second homer set up a perfect storm. Extra innings with the Dodgers batting in the home half meant that Ohtani represented the tying run every time he came to the plate the rest of the way, and you don’t have to roll out the red carpet for Schneider; he’s always ready to deploy some tactics. Ohtani had five more plate appearances in the game; Schneider intentionally walked him in four of them. I did the math to see whether those were good decisions, and how much they affected the outcome of the game. Read the rest of this entry »

An all-time World Series classic was played on October 27, 1991. That was the Game 7 where Jack Morris and John Smoltz matched zeros until the Minnesota Twins ultimately edged the Atlanta Braves 1-0 in 10 innings. Thirteen years later, on that same date in 2004, the Boston Red Sox won their first World Series championship since 1918. In both cases, baseball history was made in memorable fashion.

What took place on October 27, 2025 at Dodger Stadium ranks right up there with the best World Series games ever played. In an affair that lasted deep into the night and featured heroics from multiple players, it was Freddie Freeman who finally ended it. Leading off the bottom of the 18th inning, the Dodgers first baseman launched a home run to straightaway center field to walk off the Blue Jays, 6-5, in Game 3 and give Los Angeles a two-games-to-one lead in the World Series.

The game started uneventfully, with Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow retiring the side in order in the first. But from that point forward the word “uneventful” was nowhere to be found — not for the remainder of a Monday night that turned into the wee hours of Tuesday for most of Canada and the continental United States, for all but the time zone in which Game 3 was played. Read the rest of this entry »

When it comes to this World Series, determining which team is the favorite and which is the underdog is a fairly easy exercise. The Blue Jays won one more game during the regular season than the Dodgers did, but Dodger Blue has tended to be strongly favored over Labatt Blue. The Vegas odds for the Dodgers opened at -215, implying a better than two-in-three chance of a Los Angeles championship; per the research of CakesRacer522 on Reddit, only the 2019 Astros started off with better odds. For our part, the FanGraphs World Series odds were nearly as lopsided going into the series, projecting a 66.3% chance of the Dodgers prevailing. The ZiPS projections weren’t quite as bullish, but the computer’s 60/40 split isn’t quiet a coin flip. The Dodgers also spend money like they have their own currency, and won the World Series in both 2020 and 2024, while the Jays, though themselves a top five payroll team, haven’t sniffed the Fall Classic in more than 30 years.

So are the Blue Jays doomed? That’s a preposterous question in a game as coin-flippy as baseball tends to be; after all, if the Dodgers were fated to win, the projections would sit at 100%, not 68% or 66% or 60%. That said, if the Blue Jays do come out ahead, it’ll be an especially big plaudit, because they’re not just facing the 2025 Dodgers, they’re facing the best version of the 2025 Dodgers.

As is their wont, the Dodgers suffered more than their share of injuries in 2025. As of mid-September, I had them losing the third-most potential wins due to injury in the majors. In 2024, they were the “champions” of this sad category. Last winter, the Dodgers spent nearly $400 million on free agents, most notably Blake Snell, Teoscar Hernández, and Tanner Scott, after having signed Shohei Ohtani the prior offseason. It fueled some pretty crazy projections before the 2025 season, such that the 98 wins forecast by ZiPS actually got a lot of pushback for being too negative about the team’s hopes. But as I said before Opening Day, the Dodgers are so good that they’re at the point where signing great players comes with increasingly diminishing returns, because those guys are covering for a good number of plate appearances and innings that were already much better than replacement level. Indeed, the team’s biggest improvement — at least as ZiPS saw it — was in making their floor absurdly high rather than their ceiling. Read the rest of this entry »

Cal Raleigh’s tremendous season ended with the elimination of the Mariners from the ALCS, but that hasn’t meant the disappearance of high-impact hitting from catchers during the postseason. So far in the World Series, both the Blue Jays’ Alejandro Kirk and the Dodgers’ Will Smith have been central to their teams’ respective offensive attacks, building on their stellar contributions during the regular season.

Neither Kirk nor Smith had seasons on the level of Raleigh, but the same is true for nearly every other catcher in AL/NL history. That said, the two starting backstops in this World Series each made their respective All-Star teams and ranked second and third in the majors in catcher WAR behind Raleigh’s 9.1. The 26-year-old Kirk hit .282/.348/.421 (116 wRC+) while clubbing a career-high 15 home runs, and he also posted the majors’ second-highest marks in Statcast Fielding Run Value (21) and our own framing metric (11.3 runs), with the latter fueling his career-high 4.7 WAR. The 30-year-old Smith spent much of the season vying for the NL batting title, finishing at .296/.404/.497 with 17 homers and a 153 wRC+, his highest over a full season and the second-best mark on the team behind Shohei Ohtani. Despite subpar defense (-8 FRV and -6.8 FRM) and just 10 plate appearances in September, he produced a solid 4.1 WAR.

The Dodgers couldn’t get Kirk out on Friday night in Toronto, as he not only went 3-for-3 but also drew a first-inning walk that helped set the tone for the Blue Jays, even though it didn’t lead to a run. Facing Blake Snell with two outs and runners on the corners, Kirk got ahead 3-1, then fouled off four straight pitches before finally laying off a curveball in the dirt. His tenacious plate appearance lasted nine pitches; by the time Snell retired Daulton Varsho on a fly ball to end the threat, the two-time Cy Young winner had thrown 29 pitches.

Read the rest of this entry »

This postseason, I’m continuing my use of a new format for our managerial report cards. In the past, I went through every game from every manager, whether they played 22 games en route to winning the World Series or got swept out of the Wild Card round. To be honest, I hated writing those brief blurbs. No one is all that interested in the manager who ran out the same lineup twice, or saw his starters get trounced and used his best relievers anyway because the series was so short. This year, I’m skipping the first round, and grading only the managers who survived until at least the best-of-five series. So far this year, I have graded the efforts of A.J. Hinch and Aaron Boone, as well as Craig Counsell and Rob Thomson, while Dan Szymborski scrutinized Pat Murphy’s performance. Today, it’s Dan Wilson’s turn.

My goal is to evaluate each manager in terms of process, not results. If you bring in your best pitcher to face their best hitter in a huge spot, that’s a good decision regardless of the outcome. Try a triple steal with the bases loaded only to have the other team make four throwing errors to score three runs? I’m probably going to call that a blunder even though it worked out. Managers do plenty of other things — getting team buy-in for new strategies or unconventional bullpen usage behind closed doors is a skill I find particularly valuable — but as I have no insight into how that’s accomplished or how each manager differs, I can’t exactly assign grades for it.

I’m also purposefully avoiding vague qualitative concerns like “trusting your veterans because they’ve been there before.” Playoff coverage lovingly focuses on clutch plays by proven performers, but guys like Bryce Miller and Addison Barger have also been great this October. Forget trusting your veterans; the playoffs are about trusting your best players. Josh Naylor is important because he’s great, not because of the number of playoff series he’s appeared in. There’s nothing inherently good about having been around a long time; when I’m evaluating decisions, “but he’s a veteran” just doesn’t enter my thought process. Read the rest of this entry »

Rhett Lowder has his eyes on Yoshinobu Yamamoto as he works back from a pair of injuries that wreaked havoc on his 2025 campaign. Expected to be a part of the Cincinnati Reds’ starting rotation, the 23-year-old right-hander instead experienced a forearm issue in the spring, and that was followed by a more serious oblique strain. He ended up pitching just nine-a-third innings, all of them down on the farm.

Lowder is currently taking the mound for the Arizona Fall League’s Peoria Javelinas, and I caught up with him following a recent outing to learn what he’s been focusing on. Along with making up for lost innings, what is he doing to make himself a better pitcher?

“There are a couple things in the delivery, trying to take some pressure off the arm and the oblique, helping set myself up to be healthy,” replied Lowder, who’d logged a 1.17 ERA over six late-season starts with the Reds in 2024. “I’ve watched a little bit of Yamamoto and how he moves. Everything looks so effortless when he throws. I’ve tended to leak a little bit to the third base side, then compensate by over-rotating. That puts more pressure on the oblique, which is a rotational muscle, so I want to be more direct toward home plate with my delivery.”

Being direct to home plate is a common goal for pitchers. Appearance of effortlessness aside, what specifically made Yamamoto a point of study? Read the rest of this entry »

Opportunity knocks for everyone. In some cases, opportunity knocks, rings the doorbell, shouts into your Ring camera, tosses pebbles at your bedroom window, then goes out to its convertible in the driveway and starts singing “Thunder Road.”

Kevin Gausman and Yoshinobu Yamamoto were both terrific, but all duels end with one man standing and the other getting stabbed. Yamamoto twirled his second straight complete game, giving him the first streak of playoff complete games in 24 years. Gausman fell off the tightrope in the seventh inning, as home runs by Will Smith and Max Muncy put the visiting team in front for good. The Dodgers’ 5-1 win wasn’t as splashy as Toronto’s home run party the night before, but it evens the series.

Gausman was all but out of the first inning. He had two strikes on Freddie Freeman, who’d fouled off a splitter at his ankles, then a middle-middle fastball, then another heater up at his hands. Gausman went back to the splitter, the pitch that made him famous, and buried another. Read the rest of this entry »

The Blue Jays and Dodgers players arrived at the World Series with wildly different points of view. The Dodgers are the seasoned defending champs with multiple former MVPs and Cy Young Award winners, dealing with the gravity of global expectations. The Blue Jays, though they have a few vets with World Series experience, are mostly a legion of talented upstarts who’ve reached unfamiliar heights. They also bear the weight of a city (and perhaps an entire country) that has waited three decades to return to the World Series. In a raucous Rogers Centre atmosphere in Toronto, the Jays harnessed the energy of that weight and used it to hammer the crap out of the Dodgers in a decisive 11-4 Game 1 victory. Read the rest of this entry »