2019 ZiPS Projections – Boston Red Sox
After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox.
Batters
Obviously, the top of the offense is extremely strong, with reigning MVP Mookie Betts and one of the most dangerous hitters today, J.D. Martinez, who can be forgiven for being relatively one-dimensional when that one dimension involves a 170 wRC+ and an OPS over 1.000. But there were some cracks in the back-end in 2018, with Eduardo Núñez a stretch as a full-time second baseman and Mitch Moreland inevitably cooling off after a hot start to finish with the Usual Mitch Moreland Stats. The team brought in Steve Pearce and Ian Kinsler to dampen these issues. Pearce’s tenure was much more successful, but he also remains a role player heading into his late-30s, albeit a very good one. I remain hopeful about Rafael Devers‘ future given that most players his age are still in the minors, but you can’t just wave away the fact that he regressed significantly both at the plate and in the field in 2018. Boston’s three-headed catcher-beast contributed defensively, and did a better job framing than dirty cops in a Brian De Palma movie, but you’d still like their bats to improve to a more normal version of terrible than we saw last season.
The good news is that when your highs are high and your lows are low, it’s easier to make a significant addition than it is if you have a team that’s fairly average from top to bottom. J.T. Realmuto would be just about the perfect fit for the team if the Marlins were motivated to make a reasonable trade. I suspect the Red Sox will be content with Moreland and Pearce at first as they more pressing needs on the roster. And Pearce probably was the best first baseman available in free agency, unless you’ve received some weird news from the future about how 2019 was the The Summer of Duda.
Pitchers
There’s not a lot to complain about in the rotation, so long as everyone is healthy. All five starters are projected to have ERAs better than league-average, and ZiPS, like Steamer, is cautiously optimistic about Nathan Eovaldi’s future, even though 200 innings shouldn’t be the default expectation for a pitcher with his injury history. Some depth would be nice, but Steven Wright is likely a perfectly capable emergency option and the bullpen, as constituted, is probably a below-average group. Even a diminished Craig Kimbrel is a tough reliever to lose. ZiPS thinks a lot of the no-name relievers can be adequate, especially Colten Brewer, a hard cutter/curve hurler picked up from the Padres a few weeks ago.
Bench and Prospects
The problem with the Red Sox farm system is that while it’s far from empty, trades and successful graduations have depleted the upper minors considerably, to the point that if the team is looking for a mid-season reinforcement, they’re more likely to call up a prospect rather than trade them for a more veteran solution. Sam Travis now has a .713 OPS in nearly a thousand Triple-A plate appearances; ZiPS has almost written him completely off as a prospect at this point. And there are no starting pitching prospects that are all that interesting for 2019. That Rusney Castillo has one of the best projections of the players currently at Triple A at .269/.304/.370 is a pretty good example of just how thin the high minors currently are. The big exception here is Michael Chavis, who ZiPS sees developing into an average third baseman with power upside, though not intriguing enough to be a better option than Devers in 2019, or a good enough hitter in the short-term to make Moreland and Pearce uncomfortable.
One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.
Player | B | Age | PO | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mookie Betts | R | 26 | RF | 148 | 591 | 114 | 177 | 43 | 4 | 28 | 94 | 75 | 91 | 29 | 6 |
J.D. Martinez | R | 31 | DH | 140 | 529 | 88 | 153 | 32 | 2 | 36 | 106 | 59 | 151 | 4 | 1 |
Xander Bogaerts | R | 26 | SS | 150 | 584 | 91 | 166 | 37 | 3 | 20 | 91 | 56 | 117 | 11 | 2 |
Andrew Benintendi | L | 24 | LF | 153 | 582 | 95 | 165 | 38 | 6 | 18 | 91 | 70 | 110 | 21 | 5 |
Jackie Bradley Jr. | L | 29 | CF | 138 | 479 | 73 | 118 | 28 | 4 | 17 | 68 | 49 | 133 | 12 | 2 |
Rafael Devers | L | 22 | 3B | 140 | 525 | 75 | 139 | 30 | 1 | 27 | 84 | 44 | 135 | 6 | 3 |
Ian Kinsler | R | 37 | 2B | 115 | 448 | 64 | 113 | 25 | 1 | 11 | 46 | 38 | 64 | 13 | 6 |
Dustin Pedroia | R | 35 | 2B | 96 | 384 | 47 | 104 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 44 | 38 | 51 | 3 | 3 |
Eduardo Nunez | B | 32 | 3B | 128 | 479 | 57 | 134 | 27 | 2 | 10 | 54 | 19 | 69 | 14 | 5 |
Michael Chavis | R | 23 | 3B | 94 | 363 | 49 | 88 | 22 | 1 | 17 | 54 | 24 | 117 | 3 | 1 |
Mitch Moreland | L | 33 | 1B | 124 | 409 | 50 | 98 | 23 | 1 | 16 | 64 | 42 | 109 | 1 | 0 |
Brock Holt! | L | 31 | 2B | 109 | 335 | 40 | 89 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 43 | 38 | 77 | 7 | 7 |
Rusney Castillo | R | 31 | CF | 111 | 435 | 48 | 117 | 24 | 1 | 6 | 42 | 19 | 81 | 9 | 5 |
Steve Pearce | R | 36 | LF | 77 | 239 | 32 | 61 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 36 | 25 | 51 | 0 | 1 |
Tzu-Wei Lin | L | 25 | SS | 111 | 386 | 44 | 95 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 32 | 30 | 90 | 7 | 6 |
Bobby Dalbec | R | 24 | 3B | 116 | 435 | 56 | 87 | 23 | 2 | 21 | 62 | 42 | 212 | 3 | 3 |
Hanley Ramirez | R | 35 | 1B | 102 | 386 | 49 | 97 | 18 | 0 | 16 | 61 | 38 | 88 | 5 | 2 |
Christian Vazquez | R | 28 | C | 89 | 293 | 34 | 75 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 16 | 54 | 5 | 1 |
Sandy Leon | B | 30 | C | 91 | 285 | 33 | 63 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 20 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
Brandon Phillips | R | 38 | 2B | 92 | 355 | 46 | 93 | 20 | 0 | 7 | 36 | 16 | 59 | 4 | 4 |
Dan Butler | R | 32 | C | 66 | 217 | 23 | 48 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 21 | 54 | 0 | 0 |
Mike Miller | R | 29 | SS | 98 | 332 | 35 | 83 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 23 | 59 | 8 | 5 |
Tony Renda | R | 28 | 2B | 92 | 338 | 38 | 87 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 31 | 20 | 54 | 9 | 3 |
Blake Swihart | B | 27 | C | 73 | 220 | 28 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 67 | 4 | 1 |
Jantzen Witte | R | 29 | 3B | 102 | 371 | 41 | 87 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 38 | 29 | 102 | 4 | 3 |
Adam Lind | L | 35 | 1B | 92 | 291 | 35 | 73 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 44 | 25 | 66 | 0 | 1 |
Ivan De Jesus | R | 32 | 2B | 107 | 352 | 34 | 87 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 25 | 82 | 2 | 3 |
Marco Hernandez | L | 26 | 2B | 72 | 246 | 27 | 62 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 9 | 65 | 2 | 2 |
Chad de la Guerra | L | 26 | 2B | 99 | 385 | 43 | 82 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 27 | 131 | 5 | 2 |
Sam Travis | R | 25 | 1B | 113 | 402 | 46 | 98 | 20 | 1 | 8 | 38 | 31 | 104 | 4 | 3 |
Austin Rei | R | 25 | C | 87 | 302 | 31 | 57 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 26 | 109 | 1 | 3 |
Juan Centeno | L | 29 | C | 74 | 252 | 24 | 63 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 13 | 46 | 0 | 1 |
Jeremy Barfield | R | 30 | LF | 65 | 233 | 28 | 48 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 28 | 18 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
Mike Ohlman | R | 28 | C | 79 | 268 | 31 | 53 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 29 | 112 | 1 | 0 |
Josh Ockimey | L | 23 | 1B | 123 | 447 | 55 | 98 | 21 | 1 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 182 | 1 | 2 |
C.J. Chatham | R | 24 | SS | 113 | 437 | 42 | 105 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 36 | 18 | 110 | 7 | 5 |
Mike Olt | R | 30 | 3B | 84 | 291 | 33 | 57 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 32 | 30 | 118 | 0 | 0 |
Cole Sturgeon | L | 27 | RF | 110 | 405 | 39 | 94 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 35 | 23 | 105 | 9 | 4 |
Kyle Wren | L | 28 | LF | 109 | 385 | 41 | 88 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 33 | 34 | 98 | 14 | 6 |
Aneury Tavarez | L | 27 | RF | 102 | 382 | 39 | 86 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 23 | 110 | 9 | 5 |
Tyler Hill | R | 23 | RF | 127 | 472 | 53 | 112 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 37 | 87 | 22 | 11 |
Victor Acosta | R | 23 | RF | 111 | 399 | 39 | 96 | 25 | 2 | 6 | 38 | 20 | 62 | 4 | 5 |
Brett Netzer | L | 23 | 2B | 120 | 477 | 42 | 108 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 26 | 137 | 3 | 10 |
Tate Matheny | R | 25 | CF | 111 | 419 | 41 | 86 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 28 | 161 | 11 | 9 |
Player | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | ISO | BABIP | RC/27 | Def | WAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mookie Betts | .299 | .379 | .528 | 138 | .228 | .316 | 8.0 | 17 | 6.7 | Al Kaline |
J.D. Martinez | .289 | .361 | .561 | 140 | .272 | .342 | 7.7 | 0 | 4.0 | Tony Perez |
Xander Bogaerts | .284 | .351 | .461 | 114 | .176 | .327 | 6.2 | -2 | 3.8 | Alan Trammell |
Andrew Benintendi | .284 | .360 | .462 | 117 | .179 | .324 | 6.5 | 2 | 3.4 | John Kruk |
Jackie Bradley Jr. | .246 | .326 | .428 | 99 | .182 | .307 | 5.2 | 5 | 2.5 | Lloyd Moseby |
Rafael Devers | .265 | .320 | .480 | 109 | .215 | .309 | 5.6 | -6 | 1.9 | Fernando Tatis |
Ian Kinsler | .252 | .317 | .386 | 86 | .134 | .273 | 4.4 | 8 | 1.8 | Ray Durham |
Dustin Pedroia | .271 | .336 | .370 | 88 | .099 | .298 | 4.5 | 3 | 1.3 | Mark Loretta |
Eduardo Nunez | .280 | .310 | .407 | 89 | .127 | .310 | 4.8 | 0 | 1.1 | Julian Javier |
Michael Chavis | .242 | .299 | .449 | 95 | .207 | .310 | 4.8 | -1 | 1.1 | Mark Reynolds |
Mitch Moreland | .240 | .314 | .418 | 93 | .178 | .289 | 4.7 | 4 | 0.9 | Kevin Barker |
Brock Holt! | .266 | .349 | .385 | 96 | .119 | .329 | 4.7 | -5 | 0.7 | Pete Runnels |
Rusney Castillo | .269 | .304 | .370 | 78 | .101 | .319 | 4.1 | 1 | 0.5 | Ken Berry |
Steve Pearce | .255 | .336 | .444 | 105 | .188 | .287 | 5.3 | -3 | 0.5 | Dusty Baker |
Tzu-Wei Lin | .246 | .301 | .350 | 73 | .104 | .309 | 3.6 | 2 | 0.5 | Scott Leius |
Bobby Dalbec | .200 | .280 | .407 | 80 | .207 | .327 | 3.8 | 0 | 0.5 | Jared Sandberg |
Hanley Ramirez | .251 | .325 | .422 | 97 | .171 | .287 | 5.0 | -2 | 0.4 | Cliff Floyd |
Christian Vazquez | .256 | .300 | .355 | 74 | .099 | .302 | 4.0 | -1 | 0.4 | Angelo Encarnacion |
Sandy Leon | .221 | .277 | .337 | 63 | .116 | .285 | 3.3 | 4 | 0.4 | Chad Moeller |
Brandon Phillips | .262 | .302 | .377 | 79 | .115 | .298 | 4.0 | -2 | 0.2 | Frank White |
Dan Butler | .221 | .296 | .318 | 64 | .097 | .281 | 3.3 | -1 | 0.0 | Keith McDonald |
Mike Miller | .250 | .302 | .328 | 68 | .078 | .296 | 3.5 | -1 | 0.0 | Ever Magallanes |
Tony Renda | .257 | .305 | .364 | 77 | .107 | .296 | 4.1 | -4 | 0.0 | William Bergolla |
Blake Swihart | .223 | .286 | .318 | 61 | .095 | .307 | 3.3 | -1 | -0.1 | Tony DeFrancesco |
Jantzen Witte | .235 | .297 | .361 | 74 | .127 | .305 | 3.7 | -4 | -0.2 | Rodney Nye |
Adam Lind | .251 | .307 | .402 | 87 | .151 | .293 | 4.4 | -3 | -0.3 | Glenn Adams |
Ivan De Jesus | .247 | .306 | .330 | 70 | .082 | .315 | 3.5 | -3 | -0.3 | Marty Perez |
Marco Hernandez | .252 | .280 | .374 | 72 | .122 | .324 | 3.7 | -5 | -0.5 | Juan Melo |
Chad de la Guerra | .213 | .270 | .343 | 62 | .130 | .295 | 3.2 | 0 | -0.5 | Chris Saunders |
Sam Travis | .244 | .301 | .358 | 75 | .114 | .310 | 3.8 | 0 | -0.5 | Juan Tejeda |
Austin Rei | .189 | .272 | .295 | 51 | .106 | .277 | 2.5 | 0 | -0.5 | Brian Moon |
Juan Centeno | .250 | .290 | .341 | 67 | .091 | .296 | 3.5 | -6 | -0.5 | Ken Huckaby |
Jeremy Barfield | .206 | .270 | .361 | 66 | .155 | .277 | 3.3 | -1 | -0.5 | Jeremy Ware |
Mike Ohlman | .198 | .277 | .336 | 62 | .138 | .299 | 3.2 | -6 | -0.6 | Henry Mercedes |
Josh Ockimey | .219 | .302 | .378 | 80 | .159 | .329 | 3.9 | -3 | -0.6 | Nate Rolison |
C.J. Chatham | .240 | .273 | .327 | 59 | .087 | .311 | 3.1 | -1 | -0.6 | Eddie Zosky |
Mike Olt | .196 | .274 | .344 | 63 | .148 | .288 | 3.2 | -4 | -0.7 | Jose Santos |
Cole Sturgeon | .232 | .277 | .328 | 61 | .096 | .299 | 3.2 | 3 | -0.8 | Greg Thomson |
Kyle Wren | .229 | .292 | .306 | 60 | .078 | .299 | 3.2 | 2 | -0.8 | Jason Maas |
Aneury Tavarez | .225 | .273 | .338 | 62 | .113 | .298 | 3.2 | 2 | -0.9 | Greg Thomson |
Tyler Hill | .237 | .303 | .314 | 65 | .076 | .283 | 3.4 | 0 | -1.0 | Stephen Kirkpatrick |
Victor Acosta | .241 | .281 | .358 | 69 | .118 | .272 | 3.4 | -2 | -1.0 | Rod Bair |
Brett Netzer | .226 | .270 | .298 | 51 | .071 | .314 | 2.4 | 4 | -1.2 | Demetrish Jenkins |
Tate Matheny | .205 | .258 | .282 | 44 | .076 | .325 | 2.3 | -2 | -1.9 | Kevin Batiste |
Player | T | Age | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale | L | 30 | 15 | 5 | 2.62 | 29 | 29 | 182.0 | 144 | 53 | 16 | 34 | 225 |
David Price | L | 33 | 13 | 8 | 3.78 | 28 | 28 | 164.3 | 158 | 69 | 20 | 42 | 157 |
Eduardo Rodriguez | L | 26 | 10 | 7 | 3.99 | 29 | 26 | 144.3 | 134 | 64 | 18 | 49 | 153 |
Rick Porcello | R | 30 | 13 | 10 | 4.36 | 30 | 30 | 175.3 | 186 | 85 | 27 | 40 | 158 |
Nathan Eovaldi | R | 29 | 8 | 5 | 3.98 | 23 | 22 | 110.7 | 118 | 49 | 14 | 26 | 96 |
Craig Kimbrel | R | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2.68 | 60 | 0 | 57.0 | 36 | 17 | 5 | 26 | 89 |
Matthew Kent | L | 26 | 7 | 6 | 4.79 | 27 | 27 | 150.3 | 179 | 80 | 17 | 45 | 91 |
Drew Pomeranz | L | 30 | 8 | 7 | 4.60 | 28 | 21 | 115.3 | 115 | 59 | 15 | 54 | 103 |
Chandler Shepherd | R | 26 | 8 | 8 | 4.79 | 23 | 23 | 124.0 | 144 | 66 | 17 | 31 | 81 |
Matt Barnes | R | 29 | 5 | 3 | 3.54 | 62 | 0 | 61.0 | 51 | 24 | 6 | 30 | 80 |
Joe Kelly | R | 31 | 4 | 2 | 3.58 | 65 | 0 | 60.3 | 54 | 24 | 4 | 29 | 60 |
Dedgar Jimenez | L | 23 | 9 | 9 | 4.92 | 25 | 24 | 130.0 | 146 | 71 | 16 | 52 | 88 |
Steven Wright | R | 34 | 4 | 4 | 4.46 | 21 | 11 | 82.7 | 85 | 41 | 11 | 32 | 59 |
Hector Velazquez | R | 30 | 4 | 4 | 4.58 | 34 | 14 | 96.3 | 108 | 49 | 13 | 32 | 64 |
Justin Haley | R | 28 | 7 | 7 | 4.88 | 25 | 21 | 107.0 | 121 | 58 | 14 | 37 | 75 |
Heath Hembree | R | 30 | 3 | 2 | 3.84 | 61 | 0 | 58.7 | 54 | 25 | 8 | 22 | 67 |
Ryan Brasier | R | 31 | 5 | 3 | 3.79 | 57 | 0 | 57.0 | 56 | 24 | 6 | 15 | 45 |
Carson Smith | R | 29 | 2 | 1 | 3.00 | 33 | 0 | 30.0 | 25 | 10 | 2 | 11 | 34 |
Mike Shawaryn | R | 24 | 9 | 9 | 5.18 | 26 | 25 | 133.7 | 148 | 77 | 23 | 47 | 104 |
Colten Brewer | R | 26 | 4 | 3 | 3.86 | 49 | 0 | 58.3 | 55 | 25 | 5 | 23 | 58 |
Marcus Walden | R | 30 | 4 | 3 | 4.36 | 29 | 8 | 66.0 | 69 | 32 | 5 | 28 | 45 |
William Cuevas | R | 28 | 8 | 9 | 5.14 | 28 | 22 | 126.0 | 139 | 72 | 19 | 52 | 96 |
Travis Lakins | R | 25 | 4 | 3 | 4.62 | 29 | 11 | 62.3 | 66 | 32 | 7 | 29 | 50 |
Brandon Workman | R | 30 | 5 | 4 | 4.30 | 54 | 0 | 60.7 | 61 | 29 | 8 | 22 | 54 |
Bobby Poyner | L | 26 | 1 | 1 | 4.33 | 50 | 0 | 62.3 | 66 | 30 | 9 | 16 | 52 |
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. | R | 35 | 3 | 3 | 4.70 | 31 | 4 | 51.7 | 50 | 27 | 7 | 22 | 49 |
Robby Scott | L | 29 | 3 | 3 | 4.47 | 53 | 0 | 52.3 | 50 | 26 | 7 | 23 | 51 |
Darwinzon Hernandez | L | 22 | 6 | 6 | 5.31 | 26 | 22 | 95.0 | 92 | 56 | 10 | 74 | 89 |
Bryan Mata | R | 20 | 5 | 5 | 5.27 | 18 | 18 | 68.3 | 71 | 40 | 4 | 59 | 46 |
Mark Montgomery | R | 28 | 4 | 4 | 4.57 | 46 | 0 | 45.3 | 45 | 23 | 6 | 21 | 43 |
Denyi Reyes | R | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5.49 | 19 | 19 | 101.7 | 118 | 62 | 18 | 34 | 59 |
Josh Taylor | L | 26 | 4 | 4 | 4.63 | 55 | 0 | 58.3 | 61 | 30 | 6 | 29 | 48 |
Trevor Kelley | R | 25 | 2 | 2 | 4.80 | 40 | 0 | 54.3 | 60 | 29 | 6 | 20 | 36 |
Matthew Gorst | R | 24 | 4 | 4 | 4.97 | 40 | 0 | 63.3 | 71 | 35 | 10 | 22 | 42 |
Tyler Thornburg | R | 30 | 3 | 3 | 4.86 | 48 | 0 | 46.3 | 45 | 25 | 7 | 23 | 41 |
Domingo Tapia | R | 27 | 4 | 5 | 5.12 | 44 | 5 | 65.0 | 73 | 37 | 8 | 31 | 43 |
Tanner Houck | R | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5.84 | 22 | 22 | 103.3 | 115 | 67 | 15 | 68 | 75 |
Teddy Stankiewicz | R | 25 | 8 | 10 | 5.95 | 25 | 21 | 134.7 | 168 | 89 | 28 | 42 | 82 |
Player | TBF | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | ERA+ | ERA- | FIP | WAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale | 727 | 11.13 | 1.68 | 0.79 | .292 | 168 | 59 | 2.61 | 5.9 | Johan Santana |
David Price | 689 | 8.60 | 2.30 | 1.10 | .298 | 117 | 86 | 3.72 | 3.3 | Frank Viola |
Eduardo Rodriguez | 611 | 9.54 | 3.06 | 1.12 | .301 | 110 | 91 | 3.77 | 2.5 | Chris Nabholz |
Rick Porcello | 748 | 8.11 | 2.05 | 1.39 | .309 | 101 | 99 | 4.19 | 2.3 | Moose Haas |
Nathan Eovaldi | 470 | 7.81 | 2.11 | 1.14 | .313 | 111 | 90 | 3.82 | 1.9 | Carl Pavano |
Craig Kimbrel | 233 | 14.05 | 4.11 | 0.79 | .282 | 159 | 63 | 2.69 | 1.7 | Greg Harris |
Matthew Kent | 672 | 5.45 | 2.69 | 1.02 | .318 | 92 | 109 | 4.49 | 1.3 | Jeff Johnson |
Drew Pomeranz | 510 | 8.04 | 4.21 | 1.17 | .299 | 96 | 104 | 4.54 | 1.2 | Rich Robertson |
Chandler Shepherd | 543 | 5.88 | 2.25 | 1.23 | .311 | 92 | 109 | 4.52 | 1.1 | Lary Sorensen |
Matt Barnes | 262 | 11.80 | 4.43 | 0.89 | .313 | 124 | 80 | 3.38 | 1.1 | Ryne Duren |
Joe Kelly | 263 | 8.95 | 4.33 | 0.60 | .299 | 123 | 81 | 3.61 | 1.0 | Jim Hughes |
Dedgar Jimenez | 585 | 6.09 | 3.60 | 1.11 | .308 | 90 | 112 | 4.76 | 1.0 | Wes Whisler |
Steven Wright | 363 | 6.42 | 3.48 | 1.20 | .288 | 99 | 101 | 4.76 | 1.0 | Diego Segui |
Hector Velazquez | 427 | 5.98 | 2.99 | 1.21 | .304 | 96 | 104 | 4.76 | 0.9 | Dallas Green |
Justin Haley | 477 | 6.31 | 3.11 | 1.18 | .310 | 90 | 111 | 4.65 | 0.8 | Bill Swift |
Heath Hembree | 249 | 10.28 | 3.38 | 1.23 | .305 | 115 | 87 | 3.81 | 0.8 | Jay Powell |
Ryan Brasier | 240 | 7.11 | 2.37 | 0.95 | .291 | 116 | 86 | 3.83 | 0.8 | Kent Tekulve |
Carson Smith | 126 | 10.20 | 3.30 | 0.60 | .299 | 147 | 68 | 3.05 | 0.7 | Danny Kolb |
Mike Shawaryn | 594 | 7.00 | 3.16 | 1.55 | .303 | 85 | 118 | 5.07 | 0.6 | Andy Taulbee |
Colten Brewer | 252 | 8.95 | 3.55 | 0.77 | .307 | 111 | 90 | 3.61 | 0.6 | Jose Rodriguez |
Marcus Walden | 293 | 6.14 | 3.82 | 0.68 | .302 | 98 | 102 | 4.18 | 0.6 | Ed Klieman |
William Cuevas | 566 | 6.86 | 3.71 | 1.36 | .306 | 86 | 117 | 4.99 | 0.6 | Jeremy Guthrie |
Travis Lakins | 281 | 7.22 | 4.19 | 1.01 | .309 | 95 | 105 | 4.59 | 0.6 | Tim Byron |
Brandon Workman | 263 | 8.01 | 3.26 | 1.19 | .299 | 102 | 98 | 4.27 | 0.5 | Kenny Greer |
Bobby Poyner | 267 | 7.51 | 2.31 | 1.30 | .305 | 102 | 98 | 4.27 | 0.5 | Chris Key |
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. | 225 | 8.54 | 3.83 | 1.22 | .297 | 94 | 107 | 4.41 | 0.3 | Don Aase |
Robby Scott | 230 | 8.77 | 3.96 | 1.20 | .297 | 99 | 101 | 4.49 | 0.3 | Scott Wiegandt |
Darwinzon Hernandez | 450 | 8.43 | 7.01 | 0.95 | .303 | 83 | 120 | 5.17 | 0.3 | Bryan Clark |
Bryan Mata | 335 | 6.06 | 7.77 | 0.53 | .303 | 84 | 120 | 5.37 | 0.3 | Rick Berg |
Mark Montgomery | 201 | 8.54 | 4.17 | 1.19 | .302 | 97 | 104 | 4.50 | 0.2 | Greg Bauer |
Denyi Reyes | 458 | 5.22 | 3.01 | 1.59 | .296 | 80 | 125 | 5.56 | 0.2 | Bob Tewksbury |
Josh Taylor | 264 | 7.41 | 4.47 | 0.93 | .309 | 92 | 108 | 4.49 | 0.2 | Philip Barzilla |
Trevor Kelley | 242 | 5.96 | 3.31 | 0.99 | .305 | 92 | 109 | 4.53 | 0.1 | Bob Miller |
Matthew Gorst | 282 | 5.97 | 3.13 | 1.42 | .299 | 89 | 113 | 5.11 | 0.0 | Rich DeLosSantos |
Tyler Thornburg | 206 | 7.96 | 4.47 | 1.36 | .286 | 88 | 114 | 4.96 | 0.0 | Craig McMurtry |
Domingo Tapia | 298 | 5.95 | 4.29 | 1.11 | .307 | 83 | 120 | 5.04 | 0.0 | Barry Hertzler |
Tanner Houck | 491 | 6.53 | 5.92 | 1.31 | .306 | 76 | 132 | 5.73 | -0.2 | Randy Nosek |
Teddy Stankiewicz | 611 | 5.48 | 2.81 | 1.87 | .310 | 74 | 135 | 5.75 | -0.5 | Cameron Reimers |
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.
ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.
Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.
Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
“Brock Holt!” ftw
I’d much prefer “Brock, Holt!” or even “Brock: Holt!”