2018 ZiPS Projections – Detroit Tigers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Detroit’s collection of hitters doesn’t fair particularly well by the projections, nor is this particularly surprising: having finally embraced the notion of a rebuild, the club has spent the last six months divesting itself of all mildly attractive assets. Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, and Justin Upton represented three-quarters of the team’s offensive core least year. They’ve all been traded since mid-July.

What remains is rather modest. Miguel Cabrera (526 PA, 2.0 zWAR) and Nick Castellanos (634, 2.3) receive the only projections of two or more wins. Designated hitter Victor Martinez (446, 0.3) is a replacement-level player. All other starters occupy a spot somewhere with that range. This is a below-average group.

That’s not to say there aren’t items of interest. Overall, the team is younger. Third baseman Jeimer Candelario (596, 1.7), acquired from the Cubs in the Justin Wilson trade, earns a nearly league-average forecast. Also, the club appears likely to field one of its best defenses for some time. Leonys Martin (507, 1.7) is projected for +9 runs in center field. Dixon Machado (496, 0.8) is a +4 shortstop playing second base. Miscast as a center fielder, Mikie Mahtook (428, 0.7) is probably an asset in left.

Pitchers
Much of what applies to the club’s hitting corps is relevant to the pitching staff, as well. Justin Verlander, of course, was traded to Houston last summer. In his absence, Michael Fulmer (162.1, 2.9 zWAR) becomes both the nominal and also actual ace of the team. Despite missing fewer bats in his sophomore campaign, Fulmer recorded largely similar fielding-independent numbers overall in 2017. ZiPS calls for basically a carbon copy of his first two seasons.

After Fulmer will appear, in some kind of order, Matt Boyd (161.2, 1.5), Mike Fiers (147.1, 1.4), Daniel Norris (134.0, 1.6), and Jordan Zimmermann (142.1, 1.2). While the process differs for each, all four appear to offer basically the same product — which is to pitch like a No. 4 starter.

As for the bullpen, Shane Greene (64.0 IP, 82 ERA-, 1.0 zWAR) is likely to close games. Conveniently, he also receives basically the top ERA projection on the club. The recipient of the actual top ERA projection is Blaine Hardy (65.0, 81, 1.0), who appears to fare well here — at least in part — due to his impressive minor-league line in 2017.

Bench/Prospects
Unsurprisingly for a club that has weighed future over present value in recent deals, the Tigers’ system features some bright spots. Dawel Lugo (577 PA, 1.5 zWAR), for example, earns the top wins forecast not only among the organization’s rookie-eligible players but also all those omitted from the depth-chart image below. Projected by Szymborski as a +4-run third baseman, Lugo also spent time at second and third for Double-A Erie.

Artie Lewicki (125.2 IP, 1.4 zWAR) is decidedly not one of the talents acquired by Detroit in a high-profile trade but rather a former eighth-round pick who has slowly ascended the organizational ladder. Lewicki made his major-league debut last season as 25-year-old and figures to have some kind of opportunity in 2018, as well. He receives a forecase basically on par with the club’s No. 1-4 starters.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Tigers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.