2018 ZiPS Projections – Minnesota Twins

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
The Twins’ surprising 2017 campaign, which included a place in the Wild Card game, was a product in no small part of the club’s most promising young players translating their immense talents into on-field success. Byron Buxton (projected for 538 PA and 3.2 zWAR in 2018), Eddie Rosario (578, 1.6), and Miguel Sano (531, 2.7) combined for 8.3 WAR as a group. ZiPS calls for the triumvirate to fall short of that mark in 2018 but to still approach the eight-win threshold — all at basically no cost to the team.

Buxton remains a source of great interest, of course. After a series of fits and starts, he managed to hit well enough this past season to allow his other skills to carry him. In 2017, he recorded the highest WAR (3.5) of any player who also produced a below-average batting line (90 wRC+, in this case). Dan Szymborski’s computer suggests he could once again earn that strange distinction, projecting Buxton for a 90 wRC+ and 3.2 WAR.

Finally, it should be noted that ZiPS projects plate-appearance totals using only the data from a player’s observed track record and is agnostic to news of injury, etc. Accordingly, there has been no attempt here to account for how allegations of sexual assault might affect Miguel Sano’s playing time. Which is good because, whatever the virtues of Szymborski’s model, contending with fraught and difficult and nuanced social conversations isn’t (and needn’t be) among them.

Pitchers
Relative to other clubs’ rotations, the Twins’ starting cohort wasn’t particularly great this past season. Relative to last year’s ZiPS forecasts, however, the results were actually favorable. Jose Berrios (176.2 IP and 3.3 zWAR) and Ervin Santana (173.1, 2.5), projected for 3.7 WAR total last January, actually combined for just under six wins between them. ZiPS calls for the pair to approximate their 2017 output. Kyle Gibson (160.1, 1.9), meanwhile, is actually forecast to nearly double his WAR mark in 2018, allowing 0.3 fewer home runs per nine innings and an opponent BABIP that’s roughly 30 points lower. After that group, the rotation offers little in the way of even average talent, however.

With regard to the bullpen, the Twins are in the curious position of employing a closer, Fernando Rodney (52.1 IP, 92 ERA-, 0.6 zWAR), forecast to allow runs at a higher rate than, like, all the rest of the bullpen. Tyler Duffey (77.0, 91, 0.8), Zach Duke (41.0, 78, 0.7), Trevor Hildenberger (64.1, 78, 1.1), Ryan Pressly (69.1, 81, 1.0), and Taylor Rogers (71.0, 88, 0.9) all appear likely both to (a) make the Opening Day roster and (b) record a lower ERA than Rodney himself.

Bench/Prospects
Eduardo Escobar (472 PA, 1.4 zWAR) is omitted from the depth-chart image below but has averaged roughly 450 plate appearances for the Twins over the past four seasons and is likely to play a large role with the club again in 2018. Among rookie-eligible field players, shortstop Nick Gordon (569, 0.7) and outfielder LaMonte Wade (483, 0.7) receive the top WAR projections.

As noted above, Minnesota’s rotation lacks any depth to speak of. That said, Michael Pineda (103.0 IP, 1.4 zWAR) might serve some kind of role should he make a successful return from Tommy John surgery. Right-hander John Curtiss (54.2 IP, 77 ERA-, 0.9 zWAR), meanwhile, is another of the relief types forecast for a better ERA than Rodney.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Twins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.