2018 ZiPS Projections – New York Yankees

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
The Yankees’ roster, as presently constructed, is unusual. The prospective starting lineup features, on the one hand, two of this past season’s legitimately best players. It includes at least three others, however, who are projected for one or fewer wins in 2018. It doesn’t seem as though Brian Cashman et al. have specifically set out to assemble a stars-and-scrubs roster. That seems to have been the result so far, though.

The core of the offense, clearly, is formed by Aaron Judge (621 PA, 4.7 zWAR) and Giancarlo Stanton (593, 6.4). Dan Szymborski’s computer calls for that pair to record just over 11 wins together — as in, that’s the mean projected outcome, tempered by regression and aging and whatever. By comparison, consider: less than a third of clubs in 2017 featured teammates who produced observed combined win totals of 11 or greater. Four whole teams, in fact, failed to cross the 11-win threshold this past season. Judge and Stanton, in other words, represent a strong foundation for the offense.

What remains to be seen is how the club builds on that foundation. Greg Bird (372 PA, 1.1 zWAR), Ronald Torreyes (395, 0.1), and Miguel Andujar (576, 1.2) are, for now, the most likely Opening Day starters at first, second, and third base, respectively. They’re forecast for fewer than three wins between them. Bird’s modest wins projection is the result, in part, of a modest playing-time projection — not surprising for a player who’s recorded only 200 or so professional plate appearances over the last two seasons. As for Andujar and Torreyes, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to find them relegated to a bench role before the offseason is complete.

Pitchers
Yankees pitchers produced the second-highest WAR figure among major-league staffs this past season, and almost everyone from that class returns in 2018. Sonny Gray (168.1 IP, 3.4 zWAR), Luis Severino (187.0, 4.7), and Masahiro Tanaka (173.0, 3.5) form an imposing front end to the rotation, while Jordan Montgomery (151.0, 2.1) and CC Sabathia (131.7, 1.6) are both forecast to prevent runs at a slightly above-average rate.

More notable, however — indeed, possibly historic — is the club’s bullpen. Aroldis Chapman (52.1, 55 ERA-, 1.8 zWAR) is the nominal closer, but any of the pitchers featured in the depth-chart image below is capable of handling high-leverage innings. Dellin Betances (60.2, 67, 1.5), Chad Green (73.0, 67, 1.6), and David Robertson (59.2, 62, 1.7) are all forecast to record ERAs at least 30% better than league average. Tommy Kahnle (60.1, 71, 1.3) just misses that entirely arbitrary threshold.

Bench/Prospects
If the early projected standings are any indication, each marginal win will carry exaggerated importance for the Yankees this year, meaning that the win separating Ronald Torreyes’s projection from the one assessed to prospect Gleyber Torres (426 PA, 1.5 zWAR) might have some bearing on the club’s place in the standings. Torres is a candidate for the Opening Day roster according to general manager Brian Cashman. If not Torres, then Tyler Wade (512, 1.2) is also an option. Both players have experience at third base, as well. They receive the top projections among the organization’s rookie-eligible position players.

Among pitchers, right-handed prospect Chance Adams (132.2 IP, 103, ERA-, 1.4 zWAR) receives the top WAR projection among those players omitted from the depth-chart image below, while Giovanny Gallegos (65.0, 82, 0.9), Jonathan Holder (61.2 IP, 76 ERA-, 1.0), and Chasen Shreve (56.2, 86, 0.6) are all forecast to produce numbers not typically found among bullpen depth pieces.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Yankees, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.