2018 ZiPS Projections – Miami Marlins

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Whatever the weaknesses of the 2017 Marlins, the club’s field-playing contingent wasn’t among them. Miami hitters produced 26 wins collectively this past season, the seventh-best mark in the majors — in close proximity to the figures recorded by Cubs and Nationals hitters, for example. It was an impressive group, especially relative to its youth.

It’s unlikely to be so impressive in 2018. Three of this past season’s top-five players — Dee Gordon, Marcell Ozuna, and MVP-winner Giancarlo Stanton — have already been traded this offseason, all in deals designed by the new front office to prioritize future and not present value (if they’re designed to prioritize on-field value, at all). The result is a much diminished squad.

J.T. Realmuto (563 PA, 2.8 zWAR) and Christian Yelich (681, 4.2) are the only two above-average players on the current edition of the club according to ZiPS. They remain employed by the Marlins for now, although neither player is certain to appear on the Opening Day roster. In their absence, Justin Bour (431, 1.6) and Starlin Castro (564, 1.8) would represent the most recognizable names.

Third baseman Brian Anderson (565, 1.8) receives a promising forecast from Dan Szymborski’s computer. If he breaks camp with the team, he has a chance of becoming its best player. Mostly, though, there are a lot of pieces here without very certain roles.

Pitchers
For as good as the Marlins’ hitting was in 2017, the pitching was that much worse, ranking third-to-last in WAR. The rotation, which experienced a huge loss following the unfortunate death of Jose Fernandez, featured a procession of replacement-level options. The 2018 edition of the club is likely to offer much of the same.

A full season of Wei-Yin Chen (113.2 IP, 1.5 zWAR) would certainly help, but a full season of Wei-Yin Chen is also improbable: the left-hander’s season ended early due to elbow discomfort and he’s currently attempting to avoid Tommy John surgery. Dan Straily (165.1, 1.0) is the only other starter projected for a win or better.

The bullpen actually features a triumvirate of effective high-leverage options in Kyle Barraclough (67.0 IP, 80 ERA-, 1.1 zWAR), Drew Steckenrider (61.1, 73, 1.3), and Brad Ziegler (49.0, 79, 0.9). They might not have many leads to protect, however, and there’s little depth behind them.

Bench/Prospects
Readers might note the positive forecast received here by Sierra and assume the Marlins did well in their deal with the Cardinals. That’s free agent Moises Sierra (407 PA, 1.2 zWAR) who appears near the top of the projection tables, though. Outfielder Magneuris Sierra (558, -0.7) is the one whom the club acquired from St. Louis. Among bench options, Rafael Ortega (505, 0.9) receives the best mark.

The farm does feature one bright spot in the person of Trevor Richards (126.0 IP, 1.2 zWAR). The right-hander was undrafted out of Drury University but represents the top pitching option for the option of those excluded from the depth-chart image below. Eric Longenhagen discussed Richards’ outlook this summer.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Marlins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.