2018 ZiPS Projections – Texas Rangers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
In 2017, six of the Rangers’ position players surpassed the two-win threshold. Only one of that group (Carlos Gomez, specifically) appears likely to play elsewhere next season. In light of that lone departure, one might expect something on the order of five players to record two or more wins in 2018. Dan Szymborski’s computer, however, clearly operates by a different sort of calculus.

Indeed, a brief examination of the tables below reveals that only Adrian Beltre (430 PA, 2.7 zWAR) is forecast by ZiPS to record two-plus wins next year. As for the other four returnees, all are projected to endure some manner of regression: worse numbers on contact for Elvis Andrus (656, 1.9) and Robinson Chirinos (270, 1.3); more strikeouts and fewer extras bases for Joey Gallo (507, 1.7); and what appears to be fewer runs from defense and probably baserunning for Delino DeShields (471, 0.4).

This isn’t the end of the bad news, either: all told, four positions on the rough depth chart below — catcher, second base, center field, and designated hitter — are accompanied by a rounded WAR figure of 0 or 1. A very dreary sort of binary code, is how one might characterize that.

One, desperate for an optimistic note, can find it in Willie Calhoun’s projection (586, 1.9). Part of the return for Yu Darvish, Calhoun lacks a defensive home. What he doesn’t lack, however, is a promising offensive profile. ZiPS calls for markedly above-average contact and power numbers, represented by his 13.1% strikeout rate and .220 isolated-slugging figure, respectively.

Pitchers
As for the rotation, it features sufficient room for a variety of outcomes. Cole Hamels (154.0 IP, 3.2 zWAR) and Martin Perez (168.0, 2.7) represent an entirely acceptable one-two combination at the front. After that pair, however, there’s considerable uncertainty. ZiPS calls for Doug Fister (113.2, 1.3) to preserve some of his gains but also forecasts a somewhat conservative innings total. Matt Bush (56.1, 1.2) and Mike Minor (66.0, 1.2), meanwhile, both (a) are projected here as relievers but (b) might totally enter the season as starters. In the case of minor, in fact, it’s almost certain he will. For those curious about Bush and Minor as starters, I would recommend harassing Szymborski directly, either during his 2pm ET chat later today or on Twitter.

Because the rotation isn’t settled, neither is the bullpen. That said, there’s quite a bit of depth here. Left-hander Alex Claudio (76.1 IP, 70 ERA- 1.9 zWAR) is one of the least probable closers in the majors. He rarely, if ever, breaks 90 mph, throws a changeup that sits at 71, and misses few bats in an era defined by historically high strikeout rates. His ability to avoid the walk and induce weak contact allows him to excel nonetheless. Beyond Claudio, the combination of Jake Diekman (44.0, 80, 0.7) and Keone Kela (45.2, 60, 1.3) also appear well suited to high-leverage innings.

Bench/Prospects
Like Calhoun, Jurickson Profar (459 PA, 1.6 zWAR) is listed at left field in the depth-chart image below. Like Calhoun, however, he’s not confined to that position. He recorded appearances at first base, second base, third base, shortstop, and left field during his brief major-league tenure this past season. Beyond Calhoun, first baseman Ronald Guzman (549, 0.4) receives the top projected WAR figure among rookie-eligible players.

Among pitchers, neither Clayton Blackburn (111.1, 1.0) nor Ariel Jurado (139.1, 1.1) has recorded a major-league inning. Both seem like viable back-end options for the rotation, however, as it’s currently constructed. Right-hander Ronald Herrera (131.0, 0.8) was acquired from the Yankees in the latter half of November. He also features something better than replacement-level promise.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rangers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.