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Which player had a better career, Dustin Pedroia or David Wright? I asked that question in a Twitter poll a few days ago, with the erstwhile Boston Red Sox second baseman outpolling the former New York Mets third baseman by a measure of 58.8% to 41.2%. Results aside, how they compare in historical significance has been on my mind. Both are on the Hall of Fame ballot I will be filling out in the coming days, and depending on what I decide to do with a pair of controversial players that have received my votes in recent years, each is a strong consideration for a checkmark. More on that in a moment.

It’s no secret that Pedroia and Wright were on track for Cooperstown prior to injuries sidetracking their seemingly clear paths. Rather than having opportunities to build on their counting stats, they finished with just 1,805 and 1,777 hits, and 44.8 and 51.3 WAR, respectively. That said, each has a resumé that includes an especially impressive 10-year stretch (Wright had 10 seasons with 100 or more games played. Pedroia had nine).

To wit:

From 2007-2016, Pedroia slashed .303/.368/.447 with an 118 wRC+ and 45 WAR. Over that span, he made four All-Star teams, won four Gold Gloves, and earned both Rookie of the Year and MVP honors. Moreover, he was an integral part of two World Series-winning teams.

From 2005-2014, Wright slashed .298/.379/.492 with a 134 wRC+ and 48.1 WAR. Over that span, he made seven All-Star teams and won two Gold Gloves. Unlike his Red Sox contemporary, he captured neither a Rookie of the Year or MVP award, nor did he play for a World Series winner. That said, as Jay Jaffe wrote earlier this month, “Wright is the greatest position player in Mets history.” Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

The fourth and final multi-candidate pairing of this series is by far the heaviest, covering two candidates who have both been connected to multiple incidents of domestic violence. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this week, when Juan Soto agreed to a 15-year, $765 million contract with the New York Mets, I included a projection chart with some very pretty numbers. Now that the dust has settled on the seismic signing, I think it would be interesting to look a little bit deeper at Soto’s long-term projections, which reflect his possible place in baseball history beyond his immediate impact on the Mets.

This time, I’m including the full rest-of-career projections for Soto, along with the career totals should the projections be shockingly — and unrealistically — inaccurate.

Suffice it to say, that’s a line that would lead to an obvious Hall of Fame election during his first year on the ballot. Soto’s long-term projections have shot up quite a bit the last two seasons after his relative slump a couple years ago. After 2022, the season he was traded to the Padres, he dipped to a 146 wRC+ and 3.7 WAR — good enough numbers for the vast majority of the baseball world, but they felt a little underwhelming considering his earlier trajectory. After all, Soto is one of the few players to ever get Ted Williams as one of their near-age offensive comps.

This projection puts him right on pace to get to 3,000 hits, at just below a coin flip (43%). Among active players, only Freddie Freeman projects to finish with more career hits (3,012, 52% at 3,000). It’s also the first time Soto has hit the century mark in projected WAR. Just for fun, here’s a look at the projected career WAR leaders among active players from a decade ago, before 2015.

And here’s how it looks today.

Note that the Ohtani projection is only as a hitter.

Overall, Soto’s career projections give him a JAWS score of 74.4 – ZiPS projects JAWS natively these days – enough to rank him as the seventh-best right fielder in baseball history, sandwiched between Roberto Clemente and Al Kaline.

Those 583 projected home runs are the most among active players as well, giving Soto the best chance — a very slim shot — at reaching the career totals of Babe Ruth (714, 2%), Henry Aaron (755, 0.62%), and Barry Bonds (762, 0.55%). Soto is one of only three current hitters projected to finish with more than 500 homers; the other two, Judge and Ohtani, are both projected to finish at 549.

And since we’re saber-nerds, Soto is projected to seize the all-time walks record from Bonds. What’s even more shocking is that Soto’s projected walk total (2,797) is nearly double the projected total of Harper, who ranks second of the projected leaderboard among active players, with 1,489 walks. Soto also paces the all-time walks leaderboard for players through their age-25 season — by 99!

So, will this all come true? Probably not. But Juan Soto is a special hitter who is tremendously accomplished for a hitter still only in his mid-20s. There’s a reason that many of the wealthiest teams were bidding obscene amounts of money to get him.

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

David Wright is the greatest position player in Mets history, a face-of-the-franchise player who holds the team leads in plate appearances, hits, runs, RBI, total bases, walks, and WAR. A first-round pick out of high school in 2001, the Virginia native spent his entire career with the team, making seven All-Star teams, winning two Gold Gloves, and helping the club to a pair of playoff appearances, including their 2015 pennant.

Though he was surrounded by dysfunction in Queens under the late stages of the Wilpon family’s ownership — the financial tight-fistedness in the wake of the owners’ involvement in the Madoff scandal, the endless micromanagement of injuries, the tone-deaf approach when it came to public relations — Wright stood apart from all of that. Charismatic, exceptionally talented on both sides of the ball, with an off-the-charts work ethic, he was Queens’ answer to Derek Jeter, an icon who avoided scandal, almost invariably said the right thing, and never did anything to embarrass himself or the franchise. Small wonder that he was named team captain in the spring of 2013, and even acquired the nickname “Captain America” while playing for Team USA in that year’s World Baseball Classic. Read the rest of this entry »

A year ago, Juan Soto was the buzz of baseball’s Winter Meetings. It wasn’t because of anything he had agency over, though. The San Diego Padres were reportedly looking to trade him, and they eventually did. This year, Soto is the story again. But instead of waiting to see what his fate is, he’ll get to choose. Or maybe I should say that he did choose, because as Jon Heyman first reported, Soto signed a 15-year, $765 million dollar deal to join the New York Mets.

Presumably, you aren’t reading this article with no background knowledge of who Soto is. Still, I want to give you a refresher, because Soto is such a delightful player. He’s your favorite hitter’s favorite hitter. He has the best batting eye in baseball, and it’s not close. His sense of the strike zone is so good that it feels like he’s dictating the terms rather than the pitcher, one of very few hitters in baseball who gives that impression. He’s perennially one of the best in the game when it comes to avoiding swinging and missing, and he walks nearly a fifth of the time because pitchers are too afraid to challenge him.

Why are they too afraid? Because he’s also one of the best power hitters in baseball. He launched 41 homers and 31 doubles in 2024. He’s hit 201 home runs in his career, seventh-best in the majors over that span. His worst seasonal line was in 2022… when he hit .242/.401/.452 while getting traded mid-season. “Worst” is all relative, though; it was the ninth-best offensive line in the majors that year. Soto is so good offensively that despite being known for patience first and power second, he’s actually 11th in the league in batting average since debuting. He’s just good at every facet of hitting. Read the rest of this entry »

Last year’s Winter Meetings were a bit of a snooze until the end, but 2024’s kicked off in style with the biggest free agent this offseason, Juan Soto, signing a massive 15-year deal to join the New York Mets for what is likely to be the rest of his career. At $765 million, Soto’s new contract is the richest in the history of professional sports. The ifs, buts, and wherefors make the contract even richer, as Soto scores a signing bonus of $75 million immediately, has no money deferred, and even has an opt-out after the fifth season if he believes he can land something even more lucrative. The Mets do get the option to void Soto’s opt-out by adding $40 million to the value of the last decade of his contract.

The wildest thing is that it’s not really even much of an overpay. Some might compare it to contracts like the ones given to Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera, but those deals were given to significantly older players. Signing a player in his mid-20s rather than one in his late-20s or early-30s is a very big deal. First off, let’s run the numbers for Soto in Queens:

Read the rest of this entry »

After their surprise run to the playoffs this year, the Mets have a lot of work to do this offseason to follow up on their unexpected success. From their rotation alone, they lost Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana to free agency — that trio combined to make 94 starts in 2024 — leaving Kodai Senga and David Peterson as the lone holdovers. Earlier this week, New York signed Frankie Montas to a two-year deal to begin restocking its pitching staff. On Friday, the next domino fell: Clay Holmes, erstwhile Yankees closer, agreed to a three-year contract worth $38 million with an opt out after the second year.

With an extensive résumé covering high-leverage innings a borough over, you might expect the Mets to plug Holmes into the bullpen behind Edwin Díaz and call it good. Instead, they’re planning on transitioning him to the starting rotation. Holmes has all of four major league starts under his belt and all of them came during his rookie campaign back in 2018. He worked extensively as a starter in the minor leagues but the year he made his major league debut was the last time he threw more than 100 innings in a season.

In their never-ending search for effective starting pitching, teams have turned their gaze to the bullpen over the past few years. Just this season, Garrett Crochet, Reynaldo López, and Jordan Hicks made the jump from the bullpen to the rotation. Last year, Seth Lugo, Michael King, and Zack Littell made a similar shift. It doesn’t always work; for every success story like Lugo’s or López’s, there’s a cautionary tale like that of Hicks or A.J. Puk. Even Crochet, for all his early success, seemed to wear down towards the end of the season, despite some extremely careful handling by the White Sox given the left-hander’s injury history. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2020 election, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Bobby Abreu could do just about everything. A five-tool player with dazzling speed, a sweet left-handed stroke, and enough power to win a Home Run Derby, he was also one of the game’s most patient, disciplined hitters, able to wear down a pitcher and unafraid to hit with two strikes. While routinely reaching the traditional seasonal plateaus that tend to get noticed — a .300 batting average (six times), 20 homers (nine times), 30 steals (six times), 100 runs scored and batted in (eight times apiece) — he was nonetheless a stathead favorite for his ability to take a walk (100 or more eight years in a row) and his high on-base percentages (.400 or better eight times). And he was durable, playing 151 games or more in 13 straight seasons. “To me, Bobby’s Tony Gwynn with power,” said Phillies hitting coach Hal McRae in 1999.

“Bobby was way ahead of his time [with] regards to working pitchers,” said his former manager Larry Bowa when presenting him for induction into the Phillies Wall of Fame in 2019. “In an era when guys were swinging for the fences, Bobby never strayed from his game. Because of his speed, a walk would turn into a double. He was cool under pressure, and always in control of his at-bats. He was the best combination of power, speed, and patience at the plate.” Read the rest of this entry »

Last offseason, the Mets got in early on the starting pitching market. They signed Luis Severino in late November, later pairing him with Sean Manaea atop their rotation. Both deals were modest and short term, essentially chances for the players to rebuild their résumés while pitching for a playoff contender. And that’s exactly what happened. So now, with Severino and Manaea in line for larger paydays, the circle of life restarts: The Mets have signed Frankie Montas to a two-year, $34 million deal with an opt out after the first year.

At surface level, Montas doesn’t seem like a blockbuster signing. He just posted a 4.84 ERA (and 4.71 FIP, this wasn’t some weird BABIP issue) in his first year back after missing most of 2023 due to a shoulder injury. He’s about to turn 32. His last excellent season was in 2021. The list of drawbacks is lengthy.

Ah, but “knowing which drawbacks to overlook” might be David Stearns’ superpower. Manaea was coming off of two straight abysmal seasons when he signed in New York, and Severino hadn’t been great since 2018. But both had the capability to excel – they already had in their careers, and not in a fluky way. The right surroundings, the right defense, a pinch of luck here and there: It wasn’t hard to see how those two deals could work out. Likewise, Montas might have been down in 2024, but I have no trouble talking myself into an improved 2025.

Montas has never been a pure bat-missing strikeout machine. When he was at his best in Oakland, he did everything just well enough for the total package to work. He struck out more batters than average, walked fewer than average, kept the ball in the ballpark, and went six or so innings a start. No one would mistake him for Cy Young, but doing a bunch of things well added up to an ERA in the mid-3s. That’s a clear playoff starter, exactly what the Mets need.
Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Carlos Beltrán was the quintessential five-tool player, a switch-hitting center fielder who harnessed his physical talents and became a superstar. Aided by a high baseball IQ that was essentially his sixth tool, he spent 20 seasons in the majors, making nine All-Star teams, winning three Gold Gloves, helping five different franchises reach the playoffs, and putting together some of the most dominant stretches in postseason history once he got there. At the end of his career, he helped the Astros win a championship.

Drafted out of Puerto Rico by the Royals, Beltrán didn’t truly thrive until he was traded away. He spent the heart of his career in New York, first with the Mets — on what was at the time the largest free-agent contract in team history — and later the Yankees. He endured his ups and downs in the Big Apple and elsewhere, including his share of injuries. Had he not missed substantial portions of three seasons, he might well have reached 3,000 hits, but even as it is, he put up impressive, Cooperstown-caliber career numbers. Not only is he one of just eight players with 300 home runs and 300 stolen bases, but he also owns the highest stolen base success rate (86.4%) of any player with at least 200 attempts.

Alas, two years after Beltrán’s career ended, he was identified as the player at the center of the biggest baseball scandal in a generation: the Astros’ illegal use of video replay to steal opponents’ signs in 2017 and ’18. He was “the godfather of the whole program” in the words of Tom Koch-Weser, the team’s director of advance information, and the only player identified in commissioner Rob Manfred’s January 2020 report. But between that report and additional reporting by the Wall Street Journal, it seems apparent that the whole team, including manager A.J. Hinch and general manager Jeff Luhnow, was well aware of the system and didn’t stop him or his co-conspirators. In that light, it’s worth wondering about the easy narrative that has left Beltrán holding the bag; Hinch hardly had to break stride in getting another managerial job once his suspension ended. While Beltrán was not disciplined by the league, the fallout cost him his job as manager of the Mets before he could even oversee a game, and he has yet to get another opportunity.

Will Beltrán’s involvement in sign stealing cost him a berth in Cooperstown, the way allegations concerning performance-enhancing drugs have for a handful of players with otherwise Hall-worthy numbers? At the very least it kept him from first-ballot election, as he received 46.5% on the 2023 ballot — a share that has typically portended eventual election for less complicated candidates. His 10.6-percentage point gain last year (to 57.1%) was the largest of any returning candidate, suggesting that he’s got a real shot at election someday, though I don’t expect him to jump to 75% this year. Read the rest of this entry »