There’s still a chance Tarik Skubal pitches for the Detroit Tigers in the postseason this year.

Trading Skubal before the 2026 deadline makes sense for the Tigers. I think that’s pretty well established. Detroit has a losing record, less than one-in-three odds to make the playoffs per our odds, and one of the best players in the league on an expiring deal. This is the ideal trade deadline scenario.

But things have become more muddled in recent weeks. The Tigers are hot, having gone 25-16 since June 1. They finally look like the team we projected to win the AL Central before the season began. Still, they’d need to go 9-2 to even reach the deadline with a .500 record, underscoring the depth of the hole they dug early in the year. With less than two weeks before this crucial decision point, the Tigers have stumbled upon a universal truth: Being alive is complicated.

The Tigers’ season started well enough. They snuck out of April with an even 16-16 record and a positive run differential. They even began May by taking two of three from the Rangers. But on May 4, Skubal landed on the IL with loose bodies in his elbow, the latest in a string of injuries to the rotation. They lost that night and began a brutal 4-21 stretch that saw them sink to the worst record in baseball by the end of the month.

It wasn’t really the absence of Skubal that was the issue, as Jay Jaffe wrote at the time. In May, their batters posted a league-worst 69 wRC+ — nobody hit fewer homers, and only the Angels struck out more. When the offense did manage a lead, it was quickly given up by a shallow bullpen, which turned in 24 meltdowns in May. There aren’t many enjoyable brands of losing baseball, but slogging through a 1-0 game only to implode at the end is among the most frustrating. Attention understandably turned to Skubal’s return, and his seemingly inevitable departure at the deadline.

Then the calendar flipped to June. The Tigers began the month with a sweep of the first-place Rays, scoring 25 runs on 10 homers in three games, and they haven’t cooled since. Their 109 wRC+ in the last 41 games is top 10 in baseball, and their 72 homers are the most of any team. The lineup now has one of the best trios in the majors. Dillon Dingler (4.6) and Kevin McGonigle (4.0) each rank in the top 10 by WAR, and Riley Greene (2.8) ranks in the top 30. Colt Keith is on a hot streak, smacking eight homers since June 1 after going the first two months of the season without hitting any. The Tigers also just got Gleyber Torres and his 127 wRC+ back from an oblique injury on Monday. It’s suddenly a good, competitive lineup.

The bullpen has also been better of late. Their 3.19 ERA since June 1 is fifth in the majors. It’s a shallow group, and the end of games can still feel a bit dicey while closer Kenley Jansen runs a walk rate (14.7%) nearly double his career mark (7.9%). But the offense finally scoring a few runs has helped alleviate some of the pressure. In May, the Tigers bullpen faced the sixth-highest Leverage Index when entering games; since June 1, they’ve faced the lowest of any team. Again, it’s not a great bullpen, and this is likely the area the Tigers will want to address at the deadline assuming they add. But they’re asking less of them these days.

A competitive lineup and bullpen is all the Tigers should need with their rotation, which has allowed the fewest runs in the majors over this hot stretch. But that’s where the narrative of this article and the Tigers’ season recently became more complicated. Casey Mize pitched on Sunday, looking to continue his breakout season (his 2.79 ERA and 2.62 FIP would each be career bests), but he left the game early with the same groin tightness that’s landed him on the IL twice this year; he’s now day-to-day. Jack Flaherty pitched on Monday, hoping to build on a month-long hot streak (a 2.67 ERA and 3.25 FIP in seven starts since the beginning of June); he pitched poorly and was placed on the injured list with right flexor inflammation after the game. On Tuesday, Framber Valdez couldn’t make it out of the first inning in what ended up being an 11-2 blowout loss to the Cubs; he’s not known to be hurt, but he’s having the worst full season of his career, with a 4.57 ERA and 4.16 FIP in 20 starts.

Still, this has been one of the best rotations in the majors all season, even as they’ve dealt with injuries and inconsistency. They could still be that going forward… assuming Skubal remains their ace. He’s been great. He had solid numbers in seven starts before the IL stint (2.70 ERA and 2.11 FIP), he’s had solid numbers in seven starts after the IL stint (2.97 ERA and 3.66 FIP), and I assume he’ll have solid numbers the rest of the year, regardless of who he’s pitching for. He has been a little homer-prone, allowing 1.09 per nine innings, compared to 0.71 between 2022 and 2025. But his stuff and command metrics look the same as ever, and he hasn’t given up more hard contact or barrels overall. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume it’s a sample-size blip, though it’ll certainly be something teams assess ahead of the deadline.

Again, while Skubal’s absence wasn’t the Tigers’ main issue in May, we can see they’ve largely played like a playoff-bound team the days he’s been on the active roster:

We can also see the Tigers have maybe been a bit unlucky to this point. They are six games under their pythagorean record — the largest discrepancy in the majors this year. That’s driven in part by a 10-17 record in one-run games. In games decided by more than one run, they’re an even 37-37 with a +31 run differential; they’re 20-12 with a +62 run differential since June 1. And so the Tigers seem to be better than their record would indicate, and they are indeed gaining ground. But at 6 1/2 back of the Guardians and White Sox in the Central, and five back of the Red Sox for the third Wild Card, they’re running out of time to make this a legitimate playoff push.

The Tigers must weigh what that long-shot postseason push is worth. They have a young, team-controlled core that could be competitive for years to come. Trading Skubal could obviously help add to their future ambitions. They also don’t technically need Skubal to get to the 2026 postseason. They’d still have an above-average rotation without him (depending on the health of Mize and Flaherty), and some of the players they’d get back in a trade could potentially help them this year. Plus, even if they do get to October with Skubal, it doesn’t guarantee they’ll advance — the Tigers lost both games he pitched in last year’s ALDS. Holding on to such a potentially valuable trade chip only to narrowly miss the postseason or suffer an early exit could generate some hard feelings and hot seats.

Still, this is a legitimate chance for the Tigers. This is the bird in the hand. It’s a fairly important bird, too. Skubal probably doesn’t have the longevity in Detroit to be considered the “best” pitcher in franchise history, but he’s the rare, era-defining player — one still largely in the prime of his career. This is the type of chance a front office typically builds toward, not away from. A late-season comeback and a deep playoff run on the shoulders of a franchise icon has to be worth something beyond long-term efficiencies in team building. And the Tigers will likely extend Skubal a qualifying offer this offseason, meaning they’d at least receive an extra draft pick should he sign elsewhere (assuming the system remains the same under the new CBA, of course). Sure, their midseason stumble raises questions about the team’s potential in 2026, but it should also raise questions about its potential in 2027 and 2028 and 2029. Nothing is guaranteed in baseball, especially when a player like Skubal walks out the door.

Last month, Ben Clemens declared 2026 to be The Year of the Bunt. “Bunts are making a comeback,” he wrote, and then he backed that contention up with numbers and graphs and such, because while the FanGraphs style guide doesn’t have a hard target for words per article, we’re generally expected to use more than five. Ben was right, of course. That’s what the graphs and the words were for. Bunts have gone from 0.7% of plate appearances in 2025 to 0.9% in 2026. We’re talking about very small numbers here, but that’s still a year-over-year increase of nearly 23%.

Not only are teams bunting more often, but they’re also bunting in optimal situations and laying them down more successfully. This year’s bunts have a .533 batting average, compared to .468 last year. Unsuccessful bunts, which result in neither a hit nor a sacrifice, are down from 22% to 19%. According to Baseball Savant’s Run Values, last year’s bunts were worth 13 runs. This season’s bunts are already at 50 runs, and we’ve still got a couple months left! Over the winter, the whole league seems to have finally figured how and when to bunt. But not the Detroit Tigers.

The Tigers have laid down eight bunts this year. Eight. That works out to just under one bunt every 12.5 games. In this article, I will show you all eight of them. It will not take long. The Tigers have more triples than bunts. The Rays have bunted 10 times more than the Tigers. Every team except the Phillies has bunted at least twice as often as the Tigers. Twenty different individual players have bunted more than the Tigers. The Tigers recognize The Year of the Bunt as a fad, and they want no part of such ephemeral frivolities. They didn’t attempt to bunt for the first time until May 4, their 36th game of the season. It, uh, did not go well.

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At last we reach the end of my annual series spotlighting the weakest positions on contending clubs. While still focusing upon teams that meet that loose definition of contenders (Playoff Odds of at least 10% when this series began), I’ve also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included it here because the team’s performance is worth a look.

At the other positions in this series, I have used 0.6 WAR or less thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — as my cutoff, but for the designated hitters, I’ve limited the list to the teams below zero, both to keep the length manageable and to account for the general spread of value. In the fifth full season of the universal DH, 0.2 WAR represents the current median, with 11 teams below zero, 12 between zero and 1.0, and just seven with 1.0 or more, with only five reaching 2.0. DHs as a group have hit .244/.325/.422 for a 106 wRC+ this season, down four points from last year’s final mark, the highest since the adoption of the universal DH.

It does appear that an increasing number of teams are investing more playing time in a single DH. From 2022 (the first full-length season with the universal DH) to ’25, the number of players reaching 450 plate appearances in the DH role increased from three to four to seven to nine; this year, they’re on pace for nine, as well. That said, all but one of the teams on this list are the ones that haven’t found that special someone to take the lion’s share of the plate appearances. Read the rest of this entry »

Troy Melton has excelled since returning to the mound in late May. Over nine starts comprising 55 innings, the 25-year-old Detroit Tigers right-hander has won five of six decisions while logging a 1.80 ERA and a 3.86 FIP. Sidelined for the initial two months of the season due to elbow inflammation, he is back to being one of baseball’s most-promising young pitchers.

What most stands out about Melton’s campaign to date? From an arsenal perspective, the answer has to be his cutter. Last season, he threw the pitch at a 10.8% clip to the tune of a .368 BAA and a 12.8% whiff rate. This year, the offering has elicited a .083 BAA and a 26.0% whiff rate while being thrown at a nearly-double 20.5% clip.

Why the increased reliance on his cutter, and why has it been so effective?

“I didn’t really change anything, which is the weirdest part,” Melton told me in the days leading up to the All-Star break. “I’ve just been throwing it way, way harder and getting a lot of swing-and-miss. I’ve been throwing my slider harder, too. I got one up to 91 [mph] in my last start, which is well above what I’d been doing previously.

“It’s definitely interesting,” the second-year big-leaguer continued. “It’s not even something I consciously changed, it’s just that I’ve had a little bit more intent. I realized that my intent wasn’t high enough, so I literally started trying to throw harder, and that didn’t sacrifice any execution. I’ve been executing just as good, if not better. My cutter has been kind of been the leading beneficiary of that.”

In terms of velocity, Melton’s cutter is averaging 92.2 mph, up from 90.9 mph in his rookie campaign. Locating the pitch better has likewise been a factor in its success, as has its role in his attack plan. Read the rest of this entry »

In years past, I’ve generally addressed the teams receiving less-than-acceptable production in one corner outfield spot or the other within the same post, but this year’s batch of right fielders is disproportionately large, mandating a separate entry that led me to combine the left and center field lists instead. There’s still some crossover between most teams’ pools of right fielders and the positions I covered in the previous post, with a couple teams from this group landing on both lists. As they look to upgrade, there’s some fluidity as well, with teams willing to test the defensive limitations of their outfielders in order to shoehorn better bats into the lineup.

While still focusing on clubs that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I’ve also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included the club here because its performance is worth a look.

As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly within the context of the rest of a team’s roster. As always, I don’t expect every team here to go out and track down upgrades before the August 3 trade deadline, but these are ones to keep an eye on. Read the rest of this entry »

Having gone around the horn during the first three entries of this series, it’s time to turn to the outfield. In a break from tradition, instead of looking at the teams with trouble at either corner in one fell swoop, this time I’m addressing the ones receiving less-than-acceptable production from their left and center fielders. Right fielders will get a standalone list in order to keep the length of these articles manageable. There’s still some crossover between today’s positions and their respective lists, with two contenders double-dipping.

While still focusing on clubs that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I’ve also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance is worth a look.

As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly within the context of the rest of a team’s roster. The capsules are listed in order of their left field rankings first, while noting those crossover teams with an asterisk. As always, I don’t expect every team here to go out and track down upgrades before the August 3 trade deadline, but these are ones to keep an eye on. Read the rest of this entry »

Today, we have the first of several Killers two-fers, with a pair of lists covering the right side of the infield. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of a contender (Playoff Odds of at least 10%, a criterion that 22 of the 30 teams meet) and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. That may suggest that some of these teams will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because their performance at that spot is worth a look. All statistics are through July 12.

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Tarik Skubal started a spring training game I attended back in March — I believe it was in Dunedin — and something he said following the outing caught my attention. Speaking to a small group of reporters, the Detroit Tigers southpaw said “Ding was really creative back there today. I loved the pitch mix. I felt like he was using every weapon we needed.”

I asked Skubal if he could elaborate.

“I don’t know to explain it other than the flow was great,” he replied. “Mixing spin in counts where we typically don’t throw spin, then going to back to spin to get to the changeup. I felt like he was in control today. He was pressing the right buttons and I was synced up. It’s part of the sport where things happen subconsciously.”

Ding is, of course, All-Star catcher Dillon Dingler. Four months after Skubal spoke those words, I had an opportunity to ask the backstop how he would describe creativity within the framework of game-calling — not just when the Tigers ace is on the mound, but for the staff as a whole.

“You’re not going to try to recreate the wheel,” replied Dingler, whose diligent game prep is well-chronicled. “You’re going to stick with strengths, so it’s about finding different avenues to get to those strengths. That could be spinning in certain counts, spinning early, not showing the fastball until later. Then, once they’re on the fastball you can go changeup or to something else. There are a bunch of different avenues to get to the final result. Read the rest of this entry »

Woo-Suk Go was one of Korea’s top closers from 2019-2023. Over that five-season span, the 27-year-old right-hander logged 137 saves and a 2.39 ERA across 275-and-a-third innings with the LG Twins. Moreover, his 29.3% strikeout rate was the highest among KBO hurlers who threw at least 200 frames.

He hasn’t had nearly as much success since coming stateside. Signed as an international free agent by the San Diego Padres in January 2024, Woo-Suk was subsequently swapped to the Miami Marlins four months later in the Luis Arraez deal, only to be released in June 2025 and picked up by the Detroit Tigers. His inability to gain a foothold is reflected in the numbers. He entered the current campaign having recorded just six saves and a 5.61 ERA over 75 appearances down on the farm.

This season has been an another story. Looking more like the pitcher who dominated KBO hitters, Woo-Suk boasts a 2.06 ERA, a 2.26 FIP, and a 35.1% strikeout rate over 39-and-a-third innings across 25 appearances, eight with Double-A Erie and 17 with Triple-A Toledo. Working most often in a setup role, he is 3-1 with three saves.

Results aside, how does he differ from the young pitcher who excelled in his homeland? Read the rest of this entry »

Hello. While on paternity leave, I kept a journal about baseball and my daughter, who is not named Derek Jr., but who will henceforth be referred to as Derek Jr. You can read all of the entries here.

May 11
Yesterday was Mother’s Day, and I thought that would be the theme of my entry. I wasn’t actually planning on writing about my wife, though. I was planning on writing about her friends.

This isn’t my story to tell, but my wife has had a really difficult life. She’s had to overcome more than anyone I’ve ever known, and she’s had to work very hard to get where she is. Part of the reason she’s made it so far is that she has built an amazing collection of friends stretching all the way back to preschool. She is kind and outgoing and selfless. She is an incredibly supportive friend, and now that she could use some help herself, she’s got an army behind her. One friend was waiting at our apartment to help out when we got home from the hospital. One checked an enormous suitcase of hand-me-downs the last time she visited. One had a baby nine months before us, and when we visited her over the winter, she sent us home with a bag of clothes and a trunk full of fancy baby gadgets we never would have thought to get ourselves. Another made a mobile for Derek Jr. by hand and is scouring the Buy Nothing app for free diapers and baby supplies. Another is visiting town — from Europe — for two weeks and coming over most days to cook for us and do laundry. Those who can’t visit have sent gifts and FaceTimed the baby.

I have been really moved by the support I’ve gotten from my own friends, but this is something else entirely. My wife has put so much good into the world, and the world is taking this opportunity to show how much it is appreciated. It’s overwhelming evidence of a life lived right. Anyway, that’s what I thought I was going to write about. Or maybe this onesie that my wife has been saving for Mother’s Day. Instead we’re going to talk about the injured list. Read the rest of this entry »