Trey Yesavage profiles as a strong Rookie of the Year candidate, but he won’t have a chance to begin building his case in the near term. The 22-year-old Toronto Blue Jays right-hander landed on the injured list due to shoulder impingement and won’t be ready when the season gets underway later this week. His return is expected to come sooner rather than later — fingers are crossed throughout Canada — but for now, Yesavage is on the shelf.

Five months ago he was turning heads in the World Series. With just six MLB outings under his belt — three in the regular season, and three across the ALDS and ALCS — Yesavage bedeviled LA batters with an array of high-riding heaters and diving splitters. He was especially dominant in Game 5, fanning a dozen Dodgers while allowing three baserunners and a lone run over seven frames.

His meteoric rise and eye-popping postseason performances raised his public persona, but the Pottstown, Pennsylvania native hasn’t otherwise changed since being drafted 22nd overall in 2024 out of East Carolina University. He’s still polite and unassuming, and his overpowering arsenal has remained in place.

“I’m pretty much the same dude,” Yesavage told me at Blue Jays camp last week. “The pitches are the same. The velocity and movement are the same. I also don’t look at [the metrics] all that much. Whenever Trackman is up on the board, all I really look at is the vert on my heater, and the velo. The only questions I’ll ask my pitching coach are to make sure that my most-used pitch is in line.”

That would be his four-seam fastball, which averaged 94.7 mph and 19.5 inches of induced vertical break across his smattering of regular season outings. Thrown at a 45.2% clip, the offering was augmenting by a slider (28.4%) and a splitter (26.4%), the last of those offerings being the righty’s most lethal weapon. A quintessential complement to his well-elevated heaters, Yesavage’s splitter induced a 57.1% whiff rate and a .111 BAA against big-league hitters.

He began tinkering with his signature pitch in the middle of his three collegiate seasons, but it wasn’t until his draft year that the efforts bore fruit. Read the rest of this entry »

Starting rotations have five slots.

Yes, every once in a while a team will pretend to have four or six slots, but that team must inevitably confront the truth: Starting rotations have five slots. It’s a matter of policy, preference, and just plain practicality, Mariners general manager Justin Hollander said last year in an interview with Lookout Landing.

“The unfortunate thing about the roster rules is you only get 26 spots, and you only get 13 pitchers. And when you add a sixth starter, you take away a reliever. When you add a sixth starter, sometimes your starters pitch every six days, sometimes they pitch every eight or nine days. Starting pitchers are fussy. They don’t like that. They like to stay on a regular schedule. They like to know when they’re pitching.”

I’ve been thinking about the fixed-nature of rotations lately after reading this discussion between Eno Saris and Jen McCaffrey in The Athletic. They compare the rotations in Detroit and Boston by assigning each pitcher a label (one, two, three, four, five), sizing them up horizontally and vertically, and confronting the trade-offs in quality and depth. This reflects how many of us compare rotations in the abstract, and I wanted to see if this could be applied more broadly. Read the rest of this entry »

Chase Lee is now a Blue Jay after enjoying a mostly successful 2025 rookie season as a Tiger. The 27-year-old, sidewinding right-hander made 32 relief appearances with Detroit, logging a 4.10 ERA, a 24.3% strikeout rate, and a 6.1% walk rate over 37-and-a-third innings. He allowed 32 hits, seven of which left the yard, and was on the winning end of four of five decisions. Toronto acquired him in exchange for 24-year-old farmhand Johan Simon in mid-December

He was originally in the Rangers system. Texas took Lee in the sixth round of the 2021 draft out of the University of Alabama, only to move him to Motown at the 2024 trade deadline as part of the Andrew Chafin deal. Lee then headed into last season with Eric Longenhagen calling him a “a sinker/slider sidearmer who has posted strikeout rates up around 30% his entire minor league career… a high-probability up/down look reliever.” That proved accurate. Lee rode the Detroit-Toledo shuttle multiple times, making 23 appearances as a Mud Hen.

Talking to him Jays camp on Friday, I learned that the well-educated hurler places a high value on the information he gets from hitters.

“That’s where pitchers get a lot of their information,” the Alabama graduate told me. “When I’m working on new pitches, new shapes, new locations — whatever it may be — I normally go to the hitting coaches. It’s like, ‘Hey, if your team were to face me, what would the plan be?’ I take that, then it’s, ‘OK, how can I mess up that plan?’

“I did this the other day,” the former walk-on to the Crimson Tide baseball team added. “I talked to Cody Atkinson, who is one of our hitting coaches here. I knew Cody in [the Texas Rangers organization]. I asked him to write me a 30-second report on what he would tell hitters to do if we were on different teams and I was coming into a game. He said he would tell them to look in a certain location, for these two pitches. If I were to instead throw a fastball up, or a fastball in, that would ruin the entire plan.” Read the rest of this entry »

If there’s something even more satisfying than spending your hard-earned money, it’s spending someone else’s money that you didn’t earn. When we’re talking baseball, unless you’re an extremely high-net-worth individual who can casually spend hundreds of millions of dollars — if this describes you, call me and we can totally hang out or something — you only have the option to spend other people’s cash. I mean, I haven’t technically asked American Express to up my credit limit to $300 million, but I’m guessing the answer would be no. Every year around this time, I make a whole piece out of it, naming seven players I think teams should attempt to sign to long-term contracts now, rather than waiting until later. There are some additional complications, of course, with a lockout likely coming after this season, but teams and players could be willing to act with more urgency to sign contracts now before all the uncertainty ahead of them.

I’ve (hopefully) chosen seven players whose possible extensions would benefit both the player and the team, as all good contracts ought to do. I’ve included the up-to-date ZiPS projections for each player, as well as the contract that ZiPS thinks each player should get, though that doesn’t necessarily mean I think the player will end up with that figure or even sign an extension. Read the rest of this entry »

After the signing of Framber Valdez served as an exclamation point on what had been a fairly quiet offseason, the Detroit Tigers have established themselves as the preseason favorites in the AL Central. With a generally deep lineup and a solid rotation further buttressed by what is likely Justin Verlander’s swan song, you have to like Detroit’s chances, even if you think that the Royals or Guardians could prove to be a bigger threat than Vegas currently does.

But as someone who has now spent decades feeding data into a cold, impersonal machine and watching it spit out projections, I know about as well as anyone that the future is horribly uncertain. Predictions are not destiny, and a team with a 75% chance of making the playoffs still has a one-in-four shot of watching them on TV. Over the next few weeks, the Tigers need to answer as many questions about their team as possible, and one of the biggest is whether their top prospect, Kevin McGonigle, will start the season in Detroit or Toledo. And if the Tigers are truly in win-now mode, McGonigle being in the Opening Day lineup is the absolutely correct move to make.

That the Tigers have made “now” into their most important timeframe isn’t an assertion that I’m just pulling out of nothingness. With the negotiating gap between Tarik Skubal and Detroit on an extension reportedly in the range of $250 million, retaining Skubal’s services for 2026 only makes sense if you’re going for it. If their goal is simply to try to quietly cruise into the playoffs with 86 wins, then they might as well have traded Skubal to a team that is willing to go all-in, and hoped that they’ll do fine with the impressive players they’re likely to get in return. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Detroit Tigers. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the sixth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a generous podcast listener, Bruce Meyer’s elevation to interim executive director of the MLBPA, his framing of the sport’s competitive challenges, media messaging vis-à-vis the owners’ and players’ potential responsibility for missed games in 2027, and the creep of pitch-calling from the dugout, then preview the 2026 Detroit Tigers (53:35) with The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen, and the 2026 Athletics (1:31:28) with A’s on SI’s Jason Burke.

Audio intro: Harold Walker, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial 1: Liz Panella, “Effectively Wild Theme”
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Audio outro: Alex Ferrin, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Reddit comment
Link to “meatspace” explainer
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Link to Meyer comments 1
Link to Meyer comments 2
Link to BP on competitive balance
Link to Drellich on Meyer
Link to Passan on the MLBPA
Link to Crizer on dugout pitch-calling
Link to EW on 2025 dugout pitch-calling
Link to Bendix comments
Link to Giants pitch-calling article
Link to Vitello comments
Link to Rockies article
Link to Ben on in-game interviews
Link to team payrolls page
Link to Tigers offseason tracker
Link to Tigers depth chart
Link to catcher WAR leaderboard
Link to Cody’s author archive
Link to Cody’s podcast
Link to Athletics offseason tracker
Link to Athletics depth chart
Link to FG top 100
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No two scouts or evaluators are going to agree on everything, and we’re no exception. We get asked all the time about who liked which player more, or who was more lukewarm on this guy versus that one — not to mention the steady stream of “Outlet A ranked Player B here, but you had him there, what gives?” questions that populate our chats. These are especially compelling and relevant inquiries this time of year, because inevitably we had to resolve a degree of disagreement as we compiled our list of the Top 100 prospects in baseball.

This year, we’ve decided to address those questions head on. Throughout our list-building process, we came to similar, or similar enough, conclusions about most players. Oftentimes Eric was a tick higher on one player here, or Brendan the high man there, and usually a quick back and forth was enough to bridge any gaps. In a couple cases though, we didn’t reach consensus. There were a handful of players that Brendan was happy to rank, but Eric would have preferred to leave off, and vice versa. We think offering a peek into those discussions will prove insightful for readers. These back and forths highlight the types of players who are generally more difficult to evaluate, as well as the metrics and scouting practices that guide decision-making when you have to make a call one way or the other. Through it all, we hope you’ll arrive at a conclusion that most scouts and analysts eventually reach: That spirited debate is a healthy part of the evaluative process, and disagreements without clean resolution are occasionally the cost of doing business in an uncertain world.

Kendry Chourio, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Brendan: Let’s start with a pitcher who ultimately didn’t make our list. I never caught Kendry Chourio live, but I adored his stuff when I put on the tape. He throws hard, I see a path to a plus curve and changeup, and he’s advanced for someone who played all of last season as a 17-year-old. The Royals rightly promoted him off of the Dominican complex, and then he dominated in Arizona to the point that he actually wound up in Low-A down the stretch. And you can see why: For his age, his ability to command the ball and execute his secondaries stands out immediately. His line – 51.1 innings, 63 strikeouts, 0.95 WHIP, just five walks – was incredible. I think we both agree that there are a lot of good things going on here. Can you elaborate on why you were still a little skeptical of him when it came time to build the list? Read the rest of this entry »

One of the things that happens when pitchers and catchers report to camp is that managers update everyone on any unreported offseason developments. Unfortunately, few of those updates are about fun new cocktails they tried or animals they saw on vacation. It brings me no pleasure to tell you I have yet to see one single beat reporter file a story about a manager who saw a really cool sea turtle while snorkeling. Most of those developments are injuries, which meant that Tuesday was at once a glorious rite of the coming spring and an unbearably heavy dump of unpleasant injury news. Today we’re going to focus on the depressing dump, so courtesy of Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner, here’s a gorgeous picture that captures the eternal hope of spring training as a little pre-casualty report treat to soften the blow.

Wow. That was beautiful. Thank you, Andy. Now we’ll get miserable, but please remember that it could always be worse. We could be back in the 1880s, when the unpleasant health updates weren’t about who broke their hamate bone, but about who died of consumption. (The preceding sentence was originally intended to be a joke, but guess what.) Read the rest of this entry »

Last week was a huge one for the Tigers’ rotation. First, Framber Valdez agreed to terms on a three-year, $115 million deal, and then Tarik Skubal won a record-setting $32 million salary in arbitration. On Tuesday, the day before the team’s pitchers and catchers were scheduled to report to the Tigers’ spring training facilities in Lakeland, Florida, that rotation was in the news again, as Justin Verlander agreed to a reunion via a one-year deal. Shortly afterwards, the team revealed that Reese Olson, who was already reportedly behind schedule, recently underwent surgery for a torn labrum and will miss the season. Additionally, the Tigers added free agent outfielder Austin Slater on a minor league deal.

First and foremost, this is both a homecoming for Verlander, the best right-handed pitcher in team history by WAR (57.9), and potentially his last lap, as he’ll turn 43 on February 20, and will be the majors’ oldest player so long as Rich Hill doesn’t mount a comeback. Drafted out of Old Dominion with the second overall pick in 2004, Verlander debuted with a pair of starts for the Tigers in July 2005, then spent nearly 12 full seasons in Detroit (2006–17) before being traded to the Astros on August 31, 2017. During that time, he won the American League Rookie of the Year award (2006), as well as the AL MVP and the first of his three Cy Youngs (both 2011), while helping the Tigers to four division titles, a Wild Card berth, and two pennants (2006, ’12); he also threw the first two of his three no-hitters for them, in 2007 and ’11. He collected more hardware in Houston in the form of two Cy Youngs and two World Series rings, but while he may have cemented his Hall of Fame credentials elsewhere, odds are a Tigers cap will adorn his plaque.

According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, Verlander’s contract is for $13 million, though $11 million of that is deferred on a schedule that begins paying out in 2030. While that will bring the average annual value of the deal down a bit, the Tigers now project to pay the Competitive Balance Tax for the first time since 2017; according to RosterResource, their $256.3 million estimated luxury tax payroll is squarely over the first threshold of $244 million. Read the rest of this entry »