Periodically, I’ll be posting notes from in-person observations at Fall Instructional League and Arizona Fall League play. Each are essentially the scouting calendar’s dessert course, both in their timing and sometimes dubious value. I take bad fall looks with a large grain of salt as players are sometimes fatigued, disinterested, put in difficult situations purposefully so that they’ll fail, or some combination of these or other bits of important context. With that in mind here are links to past notes followed by this edition’s.

Previously: 9/20 (TEX, SD), 9/21-9/23 (SD, CHW, MIL, TEX), 9/24-9/25 (CIN, TEX, LAD, CWS).

9/27

The talent at the Angels complex in Tempe has significantly improved in the last calendar year due to an influx of projectable Latin American pitching and the bevy of athletic outfielders the club has added mostly through the draft. Among those pitching this fall is RHP Stiward Aquino, a 6-foot-6, 18-year old Dominican righty. Aquino’s fastball sat in the 87-92 range but it will bump 95 and there might be more coming as he fills out. His delivery isn’t especially graceful or powerful right now — a byproduct of Aquino’s immature physicality – but it is deceptive and there’s some changeup feel here already. Aquino slots in near the bottom of a suddenly deep hierarchy of low-level Angels pitching prospects, but is worth following.

Chris Rodriguez threw this day as well and struggled. He sat 92-94 with his fastball and was up to 96, but his secondary stuff simply wasn’t as sharp as it had been earlier in the year. Minor League Rule 5 pick Adrian Almeida sat 94-96 with an average curveball, but he continues to struggle with control.

Jo Adell has returned to action in the outfield after DH’ing throughout the summer. He wasn’t throwing well this spring prior to the draft which was disconcerting to some, as Adell was touching 94 as a pitcher the summer before. His arm strength still hasn’t returned — he’s throwing with a 30 arm right now. He looks great in the batter’s box and is running well enough to continue playing center field for a while, but he’ll be limited to left field if his arm strength doesn’t return.

Giants OF Sandro Fabian had a rough year at Low-A, largely due to a hyper-aggressive approach that led to a 2% walk rate. He’s making among the loudest contact at Instructional League, with multiple exit velocities in excess of 100 mph during my in-person looks. He tracks pitches well, has great timing and bat control and can drive balls to all fields. There’s special offensive talent here, and I’m still buying stock in Fabian even after a horrendous season.

10/2

The Diamondbacks play precious few instructional league games this fall– just three, and one of them isn’t open to the public – and as such are a priority on the days that they do. They faced Oakland in their opener. Arizona prospects were robbed of some at-bats this year due to their playoff berth as Ildemaro Vargas, Chris Owings, Yasmany Tomas and Jeremy Hazelbaker have required at-bats to stay sharp in case they’re suddenly needed by the big club. Owings was rusty on this day and looked a bit slow, running in the 4.3s from home to first instead of his typical blazing 4.1.

Arizona LHP Jordan Watson has perhaps the best breaking ball I’ve seen here this fall, a true plus-plus hammer with bat-missing bite. He didn’t throw many, instead focusing on a low-90s fastball and below average changeup during his outing. He’s 24 and hasn’t pitched in a full season league yet due to injury, but he could be a quick-moving lefty relief piece next year.

Oakland RHP Richard Morban sat 90-93 with a fastball that missed bats up in the zone. He also flashed an above-average changeup in the mid-80s and a fringey, low-80s curveball. Morban turns 20 on Christmas Eve and is a modestly framed 6-foot-2. Though not especially explosive, he is athletic and repeats his delivery, and I think he’ll throw enough strikes to start. He has back-end starter ingredients.

Athletics INF prospect Marcos Brito has shown terrific quickness in his bat, as well as his defensive footwork and actions. He diagnoses balls and strikes consistently and has good feel for opposite field contact, though he struggles to turn on and drive the ball to his pull side.

When I talked to Tanner Roark back in 2014, he was in the middle of his breakout season and made sure to explain all the adjustments that led to that excellent year. But, even then, he gave us clues about his second act and what he might do in the future. And though the overall results have been uneven at times, it’s that kind of forward-thinking that has kept him productive. If he stays on the mound long enough in tonight’s Game 5, we’ll see some of those secondary adjustments in action.

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Dave Dombrowski held a press conference yesterday following the Red Sox’ announcement that John Farrell won’t be returning as the club’s manager next year. He wasn’t particularly forthcoming when asked to explain why. Nor was he willing to address whether it would have happened had the Red Sox gone deeper into the postseason. The latter is an especially compelling question, as Dombrowski cited a need for change multiple times during the 30-minute media session.

Would Farrell have been retained as a reward for playoff success, even though the front office believed a different voice was needed? Or would that dynamic have changed with a World Series berth? In other words, does an October run transform a manager’s ability to lead in the forthcoming season?

I decided that Dombrowski’s deflection of the “what if” scenario deserved a follow-up. Well after the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier initially posed the question, I barked up the same tree, using distinctly different verbiage:

When acquiring or retaining a player, the future is more important than past performance. To what extent is that true for a manager, and does success or failure in the postseason impact a manager’s effectiveness going forward?

The extent to which his answer shed light on the Farrell decision is debatable.

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Maybe it was the antibiotics, maybe it was the shame. Whatever the reason, Stephen Strasburg pitched Wednesday and offered an extraordinary performance, particularly given the context.

Strasburg gave us his Jordan-with-the flu, Reed-coming-out-of-tunnel, Gibson-homering-on-zero-healthy-legs, Schilling’s-bloody-sock moment on a dreary, blustery afternoon at Wrigley Field.

Largely because of Strasburg, there will be a Game 5 in this series. Against the Cubs last night, Strasburg surrendered just three hits over seven shutout innings, striking out 12 while conceding just two walks. Over two starts and 14 innings in the NLDS, Strasburg did not allow an earned run, striking out 22 and walking just three. He’s pitching as well anyone on the planet.

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In the ninth inning of Game 5 on Wednesday night, Brett Gardner batted against Cody Allen for nine minutes. The Yankees were looking to add to a one-run lead, while the Indians were an out away from getting to give it one more try against the hardest-throwing pitcher in the world. Gardner batted with two runners on, and as his at-bat grew longer and longer, there was an increasing sense of urgency. Gardner batted for nine minutes after Todd Frazier had batted for five minutes, and it all meant that Aroldis Chapman was spending more time not throwing. More time cooling off. As Gardner saw pitch after pitch after pitch, insurance felt more and more critical. Chapman might come back out feeling too cold. You don’t want a pitcher sitting for half of an hour.

The last pitch was the twelfth pitch, and the twelfth pitch was fateful. Gardner lined a single into right, and since the count had been full, the runners were running. Aaron Hicks had no problem scoring from second, and to make matters worse for the Indians, an error allowed Frazier to also slide home. That last run was only salt in the wound; Hicks’ run felt like the killer. Although you can never know for sure, and although it was just last postseason that Chapman suffered a stunning blown save in the same ballpark, anything beyond a one-run margin felt insurmountable. For all intents and purposes, Brett Gardner ended the ALDS.

For Gardner, it was his longest plate appearance since 2014 — but for another 12-pitch at-bat he’d had in the fifth inning. For Allen, it was his longest plate appearance since 2012. It was the kind of at-bat that tempts you to read too much into it — to say things like, “there’s your proof that the Yankees don’t quit,” or “the Indians can never close anything out.” You shouldn’t give in. The at-bat didn’t mean anything larger. It was just an incredible at-bat, in a critical situation. And I’d like to go through it, pitch, by pitch, by pitch.

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Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about John Farrell’s firing and the Nationals’ will-they-or-won’t-they pregame routine with Stephen Strasburg, then answer listener emails about the definition of “veteran,” projecting a team to win 116 games, looking up players’ stats, a pitcher getting both a blown save and a save in the same game, the career leaders in innings played exclusively at each position, David Price’s Hall of Fame case, a semi-nonsensical baseball commercial, the potentially underrated Rick Honeycutt and why some coaches get great reputations, the difference (if any) between individual success and team success, and more.

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The other day, I wrote about a silly mistake, where Jose Quintana threw a fastball over the middle to Trea Turner, and it was ruled ball one. It was a fluke, a freak accident, caused by Quintana missing his spot, Willson Contreras catching poorly, and home-plate umpire Fieldin Culbreth doing heaven knows what. I didn’t write it in an attempt to tear anyone down — I’m just delighted by the weird. It’s undeniably weird when a pitch down the middle isn’t ruled a strike. It’s not a good look for the game, but, outside of that, it’s always hysterical.

There’s nothing normal about a pitch like that being a ball. There’s no epidemic of umpires missing obvious strikes. And as I pointed out, in the very same at-bat, Culbreth granted Contreras and Quintana two borderline strikes that might’ve gone the other way. One could argue that, even in that one plate appearance, the Cubs got a better strike zone than the Nationals did. Interesting.

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