Back in the days before Junior Caminero — even in the days before Wander Franco — there was Brandon Lowe, a 5-foot-10 second baseman who anchored the Tampa Bay Rays’ lineup during its most fecund period. As the Rays made the playoffs five years in a row from 2019 to 2023, and won the pennant in 2020, Lowe was at the center of it. He posted a 151 wRC+ in 2020, and a year later he hit 39 home runs.

That’s tied for the second-most homers in a season in Rays history, up among a bunch of guys (Carlos Pena, Logan Morrison, Jose Canseco) who are so big they could fit Lowe in their jacket pocket.

Now, as Caminero is bashing his way into the everyday lineup, Lowe is at an inflection point in his career. He’s struggled to stay healthy the past three years, and he turns 31 in July. And because everything the Rays touch has to be viewed through this lens: Lowe is in the final guaranteed season of his seven-year contract. His 2026 club option is quite affordable, even for Tampa Bay ($11.5 million), but there’s only one option year. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about whether certain injuries can improve players, old-but-good guys not getting gigs, the offensive disparity between the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues, and Bryce Harper’s Phanatic tattoo. Then they preview the 2025 Boston Red Sox (31:16) with The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier, and the 2025 Sacramento Athletics (1:25:13) with Jason Burke of Inside the A’s.

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Jose Quintana spent much of the 2024 season as the weak link in the Mets’ rotation. Through August 20 — a point when I happened to check in at Citi Field — he was lit for a 4.57 ERA and 5.13 FIP in 25 starts covering 134 innings. But after that date, just when the Mets needed him the most, he went on a roll, allowing five runs (three earned) over his next eight starts totaling 47 1/3 innings; the last two of those starts were the Wild Card and Division Series clinchers. Though he was shellacked by the Dodgers in his NLCS start, he was hardly alone in that regard.

Despite his high-profile hot streak, Quintana has yet to find a home for 2025. After making $13 million in each of his past two seasons, the 36-year-old southpaw reportedly rebuffed an offer from the Pirates that was larger than the $5.25 million deal to which Andrew Heaney agreed last week. While a return to the Mets might appear to be in order now that Sean Manaea will miss a chunk of April due to an oblique strain — that following the loss of Frankie Montas to a high-grade lat strain that could keep him out until mid May or later — the team doesn’t appear ready to add another starter from outside the organization.

As the Pirates’ turn from Quintana (who pitched for them in 2022) to Heaney illustrates, teams in search of starters at this late stage still have multiple options from among the current crop of free agents, and they’re somewhat interchangeable, unlike last year, when two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell and 2023 postseason stud Jordan Montgomery didn’t sign until mid March (though the latter’s deal hasn’t work out very well). The starters I’m highlighting in this companion piece to my position player roundup are guys who can eat significant innings at the back of a rotation, while the relievers have plenty of late-inning experience. In contrast to the position player piece, where I tried to connect the dots to potential employers either based on previous reporting or spitballing, here I’ll note that most teams besides the Dodgers could use another fourth- or fifth-starter option or a bullpen arm, and where these guys land could depend upon the injuries that befall pitching staffs before Opening Day. Help is just a phone call away. Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my weekly chat. I’m back from my Salt Lake City ski trip with my daughter (now a beginning intermediate skier!).

12:02

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday, I published a roundup of the top position players remaining on the free agent market. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/still-on-the-shelves-part-i-top-remaining-…

12:02

Jay Jaffe: The companion piece, on pitchers, is in the editorial pipeline as we chat and should go live soon.

12:03

Jay Jaffe: Speaking of my daughter, she spotted a new species of squirrel in our backyard this morning: the Brooklyn Pizza Squirrel https://bsky.app/profile/jayjaffe.bsky.social/post/3liyvdf5ux22l

12:03

Jay Jaffe: Pitter patter, let’s get at ‘er…

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I wrote about the careers of the two former college baseball players who have been featured on this season of Love Is Blind, and don’t worry, I’m not going to follow up with a detailed breakdown of their performance on the episodes released this past weekend. (Though if anyone wants the short version: It’s been pretty dire. Ben is getting flamed on TikTok so bad his fiancée is thinking about pulling the plug, while Dave… I don’t know what you’re doing, man. Get it together. You’re in your mid-30s. You should be able to have a frank, productive conversation with your partner.)

I bring all this up because it’s been hard to shake something I mentioned in Friday’s article: Ben Mezzenga’s astonishingly high incidence of taking strike three. In his best years, only about half of his strikeouts came swinging. A typical big league hitter strikes out three times swinging for every time he strikes out looking. Last year, José Ramírez ran a ratio north of 15-to-1, the highest mark in baseball. Cavan Biggio was the only hitter who had 50 or more strikeouts with more than half of them coming with the bat on his shoulder. Read the rest of this entry »

You have to hand it to the Mets. There really does seem to be something ineffable that brings drama to Queens. No, I don’t mean the LOLMets meme, the belief that things will find a way to break every year, because I don’t really think it’s true. The Mets aren’t cursed. But they do have a way of making things interesting. It’s never all smooth sailing, but they’re never completely down and out either. There’s always a little more to explore at Citi Field, and this offseason is no exception. The Mets are on top of the world, because they signed Juan Soto, one of the biggest free agent prizes of all time. And they have their backs to the wall, because two pitchers they signed to assemble a playoff rotation are already injured.

Frankie Montas was the first casualty. He felt discomfort after his very first bullpen session of spring training, and a lat sprain means that he won’t be able to throw for another 5-7 weeks. Given that the regular season is five weeks away, and that Montas had done essentially no buildup before his injury, we’re talking about multiple months of absence.

The good news is the Mets built their rotation this offseason to withstand injuries. After all, Montas wasn’t the most prominent starting pitcher they signed this winter. Sean Manaea holds that distinction; he was the best pitcher on last year’s team, and though he hit free agency, he signed a three-year deal worth $75 million to come back. That’s not quite ace money in today’s game, which is perfect: Manaea’s not quite an ace, just a solid playoff starter with upside. Except, he’s also hurt now. After feeling some discomfort of his own, an MRI revealed a right oblique strain.
Read the rest of this entry »

In a generally bleak 2024 season for the Toronto Blue Jays, one of the few bright spots in that Kafkaesque wasteland was the return of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as a force to be reckoned with in the lineup. Guerrero followed up his MVP-caliber performance in 2021 with a solid-but-underwhelming 2022 season and a below-average 2023, and there were real questions about his value as a player as he neared his expected free agency after the 2025 campaign. His .323/.396/.544, 165 wRC+, 5.5 WAR line last year was a dramatic demonstration that his 2021 season was a lot more than a stone-cold fluke. Free agency beckons, and the Blue Jays are down to the last year of his services before he reaches the open market. Guerrero set the deadline to work out an extension with Toronto for February 17, and that date has come and gone without an agreement.

My colleague, and notable non-pitcher, Mike Baumann wrote about the risks and rewards of signing Guerrero to a long-term deal from the perspectives of both parties, so you ought to read that for further exposition on the topic. We’re hear to put the fear into numbers, the numbers into dollars, and the dollars back into fear! Read the rest of this entry »

Jose Iglesias had something of a dream season in 2024. Out of the majors for all of 2023 – and twice-released at that — he spent the first two months of last season stashed at the Mets’ Triple-A Syracuse affiliate before being recalled on May 31. Out of nowhere, he not only put up a sizzling .337/.381/.448 line while setting a career high with 2.5 WAR, he released a no. 1 Billboard hit single “OMG,” recorded under the stage name Candelita. His on-field performance helped turn the Mets’ season around, with his newfound pop stardom providing some feel-good mojo as well. Yet with spring training in full swing, the 35-year-old infielder remains jobless.

Iglesias is hardly the only player of note who’s still looking for work. What follows here is a quick roundup — by no means comprehensive — of some of the bigger-name position players still on the market, and some potential fits. Coincidentally enough, four of the six I’ve chosen to highlight played for the two New York teams in 2024, but I don’t think there’s a particular East Coast bias here; it’s also worth noting that four of the six got late starts last year due to spring signings or injuries. In a companion piece, I’ll run down the pitchers waiting by the phone as well. I’ve included each player’s Depth Charts projections, though it’s worth noting that their estimated WAR totals are driven by levels of playing time that might well differ depending upon their landing spots. Read the rest of this entry »

The great Irish writer Seamus Heaney often spoke of the good that poetry could do, both for individuals and the world at large. To that point, he once lamented in jest that “poetry can’t be administered like an injection.” Admittedly, I stumbled upon that quotation by accident, deep within an internet rabbit hole I tumbled down while researching the American baseball pitcher Andrew Heaney. (Sometimes I forget to search for more than just a last name.) Nevertheless, I was so taken with Seamus Heaney’s message that I felt inspired to inject his words into my writing and analysis today.

Between my finger and my thumb
The squat pen rests.
I’ll dig with it.
-From “Digging” (1966)

On Thursday, the Pirates and Heaney – Andrew, to be clear – agreed to a one-year, $5.25 million contract for 2025. After two years with the Rangers, the veteran left-hander will slot into Pittsburgh’s rotation for his age-34 season.

A first-round pick by the Marlins in 2012, Heaney spent three seasons in their organization. He climbed to the summit of Miami’s top prospect list in 2013 and made his big league debut the subsequent summer. Following the 2014 season, he was the headlining prospect in a fascinating trade with the Dodgers that brought Dan Haren, Dee Strange-Gordon, and Miguel Rojas to the Marlins in exchange for Heaney, as well as future Dodgers stalwarts Enrique Hernández and Austin Barnes, and catcher-to-pitcher convert Chris Hatcher. Hours later, the Dodgers flipped Heaney to the Angels for Howie Kendrick. At the time, Kendrick was coming off a 4.6-WAR season for the reigning AL West champions, just to offer some sense of how highly the Angels must have valued Heaney. Read the rest of this entry »

Xavier Isaac’s game is built around damage. No. 98 on our recently-released Top 100, the 21-year-old, left-handed-hitting Tampa Bay Rays prospect has, according to our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen, “some of the most exciting power in pro baseball.” Getting to it consistently will be his biggest challenge going forward. As Longenhagen also wrote in his report, “By the end of the season, [Isaac] had a sub-60% contact rate, which is not viable at the big league level… [but] if “he can get back to being a nearly 70% contact hitter, he’s going to be a monster.”

While Isaac’s 143 wRC+ between High-A Bowling Green and Double-A Montgomery was impressive, his 33.3% strikeout rate was another story. The built-to-bash first baseman knows that cutting down on his Ks will go a long way toward his living up to his lofty potential. At the same time, he’s wary of straying too far from his strengths.

“I’ve tuned up my power, and now I need to get my contact up a little bit more,” Isaac told me during the Arizona Fall League season. “It’s like a tradeoff, kind of. I’m going to strike out, but I’m also going to hit the ball a little harder. I have a lot of power, so some of it is about going up there and taking a risk. I obviously don’t want to strike out — I‘m trying to put it in play — but I also don’t want to be making soft contact.”

That’s seldom a problem when he squares up a baseball. Not only does his bat produce high exit velocities, he knows what it feels like to propel a pitch 450-plus feet. He doesn’t shy way from the power-hitter label. Asked if that’s what he is, his response was, “For sure.”

That Isaac’s bombs often go to the gaps, particularly to right-center, is by design. Read the rest of this entry »