Episode 990

On this week’s episode, Eric Longenhagen welcomes our friend and yours, Mike Ferrin of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, to look ahead to next summer’s draft class before casting an eye toward the playoff race and stretch run.

Eric and Mike discuss the abundance of amateur talent in the 2023 class. We hear about intriguing young players such as Max Clark, Arjun Nimmala, Alfonso Rosario, Kevin McGonigle, and more. After that, the duo take a look at how the expanded playoffs have affected the big league playoff landscape. Squads like the Brewers, Padres, and White Sox seem to be struggling at a bad time, while the Cardinals may somehow be underrated when compared to the game’s elite teams. We also hear how the Orioles are ahead of schedule and playing with house money, while the Seattle Mariners look good to go and ready to break their playoff drought.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximate 56 minute play time.)

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the annual promotion of Terrance Gore as a harbinger of the changing seasons, the modest September roster expansion and the arrivals or returns of Gunnar Henderson, Oswald Peraza, and Billy Hamilton, an umpire caught swearing on a hot mic (4:45), whether the Yankees could actually lose their lead in the AL East (7:59), the continued torrid hitting of Joey Meneses (20:09), the offensive potential of MLB games in Mexico City (21:34), an interruption (22:02) for a real-time reaction to Meneses’s walk-off homer, and two Past Blasts from 1897 (30:10). Then (46:57) they talk to Evan Drellich, senior writer for The Athletic, about the MLBPA’s effort to unionize the minors, touching on why the announcement was such a surprise, why this campaign is happening now, what will happen next, how a union of major and minor leaguers would work, potential points of conflict and agreement, how the sport could change, how far minor league advocacy has come, the league’s response, what the unionized minors might mean for Rob Manfred, and Jeff Luhnow’s sneaky phone deletions.

Audio intro: James Taylor, “Migration”
Audio interstitial: Todd Rundgren, “Long Flowing Robe”
Audio outro: Billy Bragg, “There is Power in a Union”

Link to Gore EW episode
Link to story on swallow migration
Link to Dan S. on Henderson
Link to hot-mic ump
Link to Rob Mains on winning by losing
Link to story on Ohtani homer
Link to Trivino jersey story
Link to story on Meneses homer
Link to MLB.TV offer
Link to Ben on baseball in Mexico City
Link to MLB on the Mexico City series
Link to Richard Hershberger’s Strike Four
Link to 1897 knuckler story source 1
Link to 1897 knuckler story source 2
Link to @OldBaseballNews account
Link to NYT story on bathrobe
Link to Emslie’s SABR bio
Link to bathrobe story 2
Link to bathrobe story 3
Link to bathrobe story 4
Link to bathrobe story 5
Link to bathrobe story 6
Link to bathrobe story 7
Link to bathrobe story 8
Link to bathrobe story 9
Link to bathrobe story 10
Link to bathrobe story 11
Link to Evan on unionization
Link to Evan’s Clark Q&A
Link to Evan’s ILR expert Q&A
Link to Gallup poll on unions
Link to Winning Fixes Everything
Link to Luhnow book excerpt
Link to Rodger Sherman Yankees tweet

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The Orioles showed mercy to minor league pitchers this week, officially calling up infielder Gunnar Henderson, relieving those hurlers of the terrible burden of having to pitch to him. The team’s top prospect wasted little time making his impact felt, hitting his first major league home run in his second time up at the plate, a long drive off Cleveland starter Triston McKenzie. And if the ZiPS projections are to be believed, adding Henderson down the stretch is about as valuable an offensive boost as anyone made this summer, with the obvious exception of a certain southern California team sporting mustard-and-brown colors.

So just how good is Henderson? That’s a question that has shifted notably over the course of the minor league season. If you go back to the winter, he was considered an excellent prospect, ranking 66th in the FanGraphs Top 100 list and 53rd in the ZiPS Top 100. We weren’t outliers, either; among others, Keith Law at The Athletic and Baseball Prospectus also put him in their top 100s.

Henderson’s stock wasn’t poorly valued, but it shot up so quickly this year that you might think that it was a Reddit meme stonk like GameStop and AMC. Minor league translation printer goes brrr! Before the season, ZiPS only projected Henderson to amass 1.5 WAR in 2023 with a wRC+ of 87. We’ll get to that updated 2023 projection in a minute; let’s just say for now that it’s better.

The improvements made by Henderson in the minors this year were across the board, from power to plate discipline to defense. Combining his performances for Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk, you get an overall line of .297/.416/.531 with 19 homers and 22 stolen bases in 112 games. That would be enough to make him the best first base prospect in baseball, considering he didn’t turn 21 until late June, but as a player who can legitimately play shortstop, that’s the kind of performance that puts you in the ultra-elite category. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — It’s not as though Jacob deGrom hadn’t faced strong offenses in his first five starts upon returning from four months on the shelf due to a stress reaction in his right scapula. He’d twice gone up against the Braves, who rank second in the National League in scoring and who remain hot on the Mets’ tail in the NL East, as well as the Phillies, who rank fifth in scoring. On Wednesday night, in a playoff-like atmosphere at Citi Field, deGrom passed his toughest test since returning, holding the Dodgers — who lead the majors in scoring (5.36 runs per game) and wRC+ (121) — to just one run on three hits in a 2-1 victory completed in just two hours and 19 minutes.

deGrom struck out nine while matching his season high of 25 swings and misses. He’s been so dominant in his limited 2022 action that it rated as noteworthy that he surrendered a walk and a homer in the same game; he had allowed just two of each against the 103 batters he’d faced thus far (1.9%), that while striking out 46 (44.7%). More on his insane numbers further below.

deGrom got the walk out of the way almost immediately, issuing a five-pitch pass to Trea Turner, the Dodgers’ second hitter, in the top of the first inning. He didn’t get to another three-ball count until his seventh and final inning, and didn’t allow a hit until Justin Turner singled past a diving Francisco Lindor with one out in the fifth. That one ultimately didn’t do any damage, but a hanging slider to Mookie Betts to lead off the sixth inning was another matter. Betts drilled it 415 feet to left-center for his 32nd homer of the season and his fifth in his past five starts. Read the rest of this entry »

Rob Refsnyder is having a career-best season with the Boston Red Sox. Playing in a reserve role, the 31-year-old journeyman outfielder is slashing .304/.380/.462 with four home runs and a 143 wRC+ in 129 plate appearances. He’s done most of his damage against lefties, boasting a robust 1.056 OPS versus opposite-handed hurlers.

He’s followed a meandering path to success. Since debuting with the New York Yankees in 2015, the University of Arizona product has played for eight different organizations, seeing big-league time with five of them. Along the way, he’s worked with numerous hitting coaches in an attempt to turn the proverbial corner as a hitter. Refsnyder entered this season with a .224/.310/.308 slash line, and six of his 10 career home runs, in 614 MLB plate appearances.

A failed quest to produce more power is part of his story. Six years ago this month, Refsnyder was quoted in a Sunday Notes column saying that he was “going to try to hit home runs… I’m going to try to completely change my game.”

Earlier this summer, I reminded Refsnyder about that conversation, then asked if he could take me through his subsequent evolution as a hitter. Here is what he had to say. Read the rest of this entry »

At this point, it’s becoming a meme. The Orioles chug along, at or around .500, and our playoff odds continue to say that they’ll almost certainly miss postseason play. Across the internet, sites like Baseball Reference and FiveThirtyEight give them a higher chance. The headlines write themselves: “Why doesn’t FanGraphs believe in the Orioles?”

Just to give you an example, after the games of July 29, the Orioles were 51–49. Baseball Reference gave them a 34% chance of reaching the playoffs; we gave them a 4.6% chance. Ten days later, on August 8, Baseball Prospectus pegged them at 22.2% while we had them at 5.4%. On August 11, FiveThirtyEight estimated their playoff odds at 16%; we had those odds at 5.7%. Another week later, on August 19, Baseball Reference pegged them at 35.5% to reach the playoffs; we gave them a 4% chance. You can snapshot whatever day you’d like and you’d reach the same conclusion: we don’t think the Orioles are very likely to make the playoffs, while other outlets do.

Now, we’re getting down to brass tacks. The Orioles are 68–61 after Wednesday’s games. Baseball Reference thinks they are 43.6% to reach the postseason. FiveThirtyEight isn’t quite so optimistic, but still gives them 23% odds, while Baseball Prospectus has them at 29.9%. Here at FanGraphs, we’re down at 6.6%, even after they called up top prospect Gunnar Henderson. Why don’t we believe? Read the rest of this entry »

While Josh Hader’s post-trade meltdowns have gotten more attention, the rest of the Padres’ bullpen has generally pitched well in August, and despite a modest 15-13 record this month, the team is still holding onto a Wild Card position. Meanwhile, the Brewers, who received 2021 All-Star Taylor Rogers and three other players in the deal, have fared worse since the swap, not only with regards to their remade bullpen but also in other areas, and right now, they’re the ones outside the playoff picture.

I dug into Hader’s ongoing woes and the Padres’ side of things on Tuesday while doing a fly-by on the Brewers. To recap, in exchange for the 28-year-old Hader — who has a year of arbitration eligibility remaining and figured to get a raise to something in the neighborhood of $15 million — they received the 31-year-old Rogers (a pending free agent), 30-year-old righty Dinelson Lamet (designated for assignment before even throwing a pitch), 23-year-old lefty prospect Robert Gasser (then at High-A, and promoted from Double-A to Triple-A this week), and 23-year-old outfielder Esteury Ruiz (then on the Padres’ roster, now back in Triple-A).

At the time of the trade, the Brewers were 57-45, three games ahead of the Cardinals (54-48) in the NL Central race, and with the league’s fourth-best record behind the Dodgers (68-33), Mets (64-37) and Braves (62-41). Since then, they’ve gone just 11-15, which might not be such a big deal if the Cardinals hadn’t gone 21-7 over the same stretch, producing a nine-game swing in the division standings. Meanwhile, the Braves (17-10), Phillies (17-11) and Padres have all outdone the Brewers, leaving Milwaukee 2.5 games out of the third NL Wild Card spot. Here’s an updated look at the impact on their Playoff Odds:

Read the rest of this entry »

Mike McCarthy has followed a well-educated path in his pursuit of a big-league position. Currently the pitching coach for the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas, the 34-year-old Walnut Creek, California native earned a Bachelor of Science degree from Cal State Bakersfield while playing in the Boston Red Sox system, and he followed that up by earning an MBA, with an emphasis in global management, from the University of Phoenix. And he’s not done learning. Along with instructing pitchers in the San Diego Padres’ system, McCarthy is working toward a Master’s Degree in Sports and Health Science.

His educational pursuits have every bit as robust in the pitching realm. Ever since being introduced to analytical concepts as a Double-A hurler, McCarthy has strove to learn as much as he can. To say he’s made great strides in that area would be an understatement; McCarthy is one of the most forward-thinking pitching coaches in professional baseball.

———

David Laurila: You’re big into pitching analytics. When did that start?

Mike McCarthy: “One of the moments I remember, one of the most distinct, is Brian Bannister coming to Portland. I believe that was in 2015. I was throwing a bullpen, and I asked Brian, ‘Why does Justin Haley get so many swings-and-misses on his fastball?’ I told him it seemed like an invisi-ball, and none of us could figure it out. He said, ‘We’re learning about this thing called spin rate, and his is really high. ‘I was like, ‘What the heck is that?’

“There was a saying that Anthony Ranaudo, Brandon Workman and Drake Britton were all using. They called it ‘elevate and celebrate.’ While I was throwing fastballs down and away, those guys were throwing fastballs up and getting swings-and-misses. That was kind of going against the grain at the time, and it turns out they all had high-carry fastballs. We just didn’t know what it meant.

“That was the first time I really started to ponder the idea, ‘What are we missing? What don’t we know yet?’ Since that time, baseball has obviously delved into the technology and analytics, and that’s something I’ve enjoyed using as a part of the way I approach coaching.”

Laurila: When did really start to dive in to analytics? Read the rest of this entry »

You know the basics of Lars Nootbaar’s story, because you know how the Cardinals seem to work. An eighth-round draft pick in 2018, he held his own in an increasingly tough set of minor league assignments, made the show in ’21, and is now leading off for one of the best offensive teams in baseball. He’s putting up more or less the best offensive performance of his career, and doing it in the major leagues after less than 1,000 minor league plate appearances. Nothing to it! Just a little devil magic, move on with your lives.

If you look a bit deeper than the basics, though, Nootbaar gets far more interesting. That same old story? It’s not really right. Nootbaar isn’t the same player he was when he was drafted. He’s a slugging corner outfielder who probably had a lot to do with the Cardinals’ willingness to trade Harrison Bader at the deadline. Let’s take a journey through his pro career and see if we can predict his future at the end of it.

When he was drafted, Nootbaar was an approach-over-tools prospect. He’s always had a good sense of the strike zone; the question was whether he’d be able to muster enough power on contact to keep high-level pitchers from knocking the bat out of his hands. In 2018 and ’19, that concern seemed pressing: in 265 plate appearances between Hi-A and Double-A, he hit only two homers and posted a .055 ISO. In other words, pitchers were knocking the bat out of his hands. He posted an average batting line anyway, but let’s face it: that’s an uninspiring start to a career.
Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Ben’s habitual misappraisal of checked swings and the potential for automated checked-swing calls, then discuss the potential unionization of the minor leagues via minor league players joining the MLBPA, Nationals rookie replacement Joey Meneses outplaying Juan Soto and Josh Bell since the trade deadline, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and the AL Cy Young and MVP races, the Brewers’ and Padres’ results since the Josh Hader–Taylor Rogers trade, the potential postseason teams with the most sympathetic narratives for neutral rooters, Dallas Keuchel and the long tail of a former Cy Young winner’s career, the Angels’ surprisingly high shutout total, an Albert Pujols fun fact, John Smoltz’s communication breakdown, the return of soaring spin rates, a record-setting Mickey Mantle card, New York number retirements for Paul O’Neill and Willie Mays, and the reinvented stance of the late John Wockenfuss, plus two Past Blasts (1:36:32) from 1896 and a few followups.

Audio intro: Kurt Vile, “Check Baby”
Audio outro: Nick Drake, “Joey”

Link to checked-swing rule explainer
Link to SIS study on checked swings
Link to Ben on checked swings
Link to Tipping Pitches T-shirt
Link to MLBTR on unionization efforts
Link to Ohtani’s postgame comment
Link to team RP WAR since 8/2
Link to Jay Jaffe on the Hader trade
Link to SIS on Hader
Link to Michael Ajeto on Hader
Link to Robert Orr on Hader
Link to highest ERAs w/29+ saves
Link to team shutout leaders
Link to Pujols record article
Link to Ben Clemens on Smoltz
Link to Rob Arthur on spin rates
Link to 2022 offense by month
Link to story on the Mantle card
Link to EW episode on memorabilia
Link to Yankees WAR leaderboard
Link to story on the Mets and Mays
Link to Craig Wright’s story series
Link to Wright on Wockenfuss
Link to video of Wockenfuss
Link to BSG imitation of Wockenfuss
Link to Richard Hershberger’s Strike Four
Link to 1896 story source
Link to first source on Pond
Link to second source on Pond
Link to third source on Pond
Link to Pond/sweater story
Link to Pond’s SABR bio
Link to Fox 96 mph screenshot
Link to Fox 97 mph screenshot
Link to Dan S. on head-to-head records

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