We know the steps to the annual spring dance by now: Pitcher appears for spring training, pitcher suffers minor injury or discomfort during practice, America holds its collective breath and hopes that barking elbow will just resolve itself.

Unfortunately, that hope is all too rarely vindicated, as imaging quickly confirms said pitcher has torn an essential bit of connective tissue.

The Twins speed-ran this dance this week with their no. 1 starter, Pablo López. The veteran right-hander cut short a bullpen session on Monday after feeling soreness in his elbow. Minnesota GM Jeremy Zoll announced Tuesday that López had torn an elbow ligament and that season-ending surgery was “very much on the table.” Read the rest of this entry »

Meg Rowley shares her euphoric reaction to the Seahawks’ Super Bowl win, while Ben Lindbergh largely listens and occasionally interjects with bits of baseball commentary. Then (29:14) they discuss Buck Martinez’s retirement, Terrance Gore’s untimely death, and a purported catching super-prospect, before previewing the 2026 Pittsburgh Pirates (44:23) with Roundtable Sports’ John Perrotto, and the 2026 Minnesota Twins (1:25:07) with The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman.

Audio intro: Cory Brent, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial 1: Alex Glossman and Ali Breneman, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial 2: Andy Ellison, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Luke Lillard, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to HUAL Super Bowl episode
Link to Acuña Jr. at the halftime show
Link to Mercy wiki
Link to Pratt article
Link to Bad Bunny insurance article
Link to Ben on the KC OF
Link to Buck announcement
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Link to Andy on Gore
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Link to Gore on EW
Link to catching prospect video
Link to scout quote about Robert
Link to baserunning leaderboard
Link to team payrolls
Link to Pirates offseason tracker
Link to Pirates depth chart
Link to FG playoff odds
Link to Post-Gazette closure
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Link to John’s author archive
Link to Twins offseason tracker
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Link to Trueblood on Bell
Link to Pohlad political comments
Link to player political comments
Link to Aaron’s author archive
Link to Aaron’s podcast
Link to Witherspoon post 1
Link to Witherspoon post 2
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“I’ve talked to Byron [Buxton] and other players through this offseason already about ways we can get better as a team,” Twins President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey told reporters back in November at the GM meetings. The answer was in response to a report that Buxton’s loyalty to the Twins may waiver if he felt they were entering a rebuild, as Minnesota’s behavior during last season’s trade deadline suggested. Falvey went on to insist that the team intends to add, not subtract, and it seems the term rebuild is taboo among Twins spokespeople.

Falvey is lying. I say this with no inside information, malice, or even judgement. MLB organizations operate within a system where this particular lie is not only acceptable, but also encouraged. Because “we’re not rebuilding; we’re trying to get better” is a corollary to a larger lie — that all teams are trying their hardest to win.

What is the truth, but a lie agreed upon? — Friedrich Nietzsche

Though this quote is often attributed to him, Nietzsche never actually said it. However, it does seem to offer a reasonably accurate distillation of his beliefs. And if we all agree that he did say it, then by his own logic, it must be true. Likewise, teams have decided to hold to the line that they’re all trying to win, and since they’ve all agreed, it falls to fans to take the lie as truth, along with all the subsequent lies necessary to support the original lie. Read the rest of this entry »

Not so many years ago, a tongue-in-cheek refrain went like this: “Great trade for the Rays. Who did they get?” With that in mind…

… a few days before the July 30, 2024 deadline, the Tampa Bay Rays dealt Randy Arozarena to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for prospects Brody Hopkins and Aidan Smith. I asked Erik Neander to look back at the transaction when I talked to him during November’s GM Meetings.

“It was a decision that was pretty clear,” Tampa Bay’s president of baseball operations told me. “That deal was about timing. Seattle was getting someone to make an immediate contribution — they’ve gotten that — and from our side it was a deal that was probably going to take years to realize the full potential of.

“With Brody Hopkins, we think the world of the arm talent,” continued Neander. “He was a two-way guy, highly athletic, and he is continuing to make strides and find the command. We believe that he’s someone who can pitch in the middle of a rotation, if not higher. I’m a little surprised that he doesn’t get more attention than he does.”

Hopkins, a 23-year-old right-hander who was taken in the sixth round of the 2023 draft out of Winthrop University, logged a 2.72 ERA, a 3.33 FIP, and a 28.7% strikeout rate over 116 innings with Double-A Montgomery this past season.

Smith, a 21-year-old outfielder who was drafted out of a Lucas, Texas high school the same year, slashed .237/.331/.388 with 14 home runs and a 114 wRC+ over 459 plate appearances — he also swiped 41 bases in 47 attempts — with High-A Bowling Green. Read the rest of this entry »

On December 28, Sunday Notes led with a look at how seven of the nine position players projected to start for the Minnesota Twins this coming season were drafted by the club in either the first or second round. (The column also cited homegrown numbers for several other organizations.) Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey was quoted extensively within the piece, offering perspective on how the current roster came together.

Today we’ll hear from Twins GM Jeremy Zoll, as well as from Falvey, on a quartet of first- and second-round picks who have yet to reach Minnesota. One is a middle infielder, three are pitchers, and all rank among the team’s top prospects. I asked about each of them when the executives met with members of the media during the Winter Meetings.

———

“It was Kaelen’s first full season, and he had an awesome year,” Zoll said of 23-year-old shortstop Kaelen Culpepper, whom the Twins drafted 21st overall in 2024 out of Kansas State University. “He was between High-A and Double-A, and we couldn’t have asked for it go much better. We’re really pleased. He had the opportunity to go to the Futures Game.

“He’s primarily playing shortstop, but he’s also getting some early work at second base and third base, as well as a little bit of game exposure at both spots. We’ll continue to let that play out as we get through spring training and into the season. We’ll figure it out exactly in terms of placement and proximity. We always kind of let the player dictate that with his performance, but he’s put just about as much pressure on us [as anyone] in terms of us wanting to keep moving him, and keeping him challenged.” Read the rest of this entry »

The composition of the Minnesota Twins’ projected starting lineup caught my eye while I was perusing Roster Resource during the Winter Meetings. Not only were all but two of the nine position players homegrown: each of those seven was drafted in either the first or second round. Byron Buxton (first round in 2012) is the oldest of the bunch, while Luke Keaschall (second round in 2023) is the youngest and most recent.

Where do the Twins rank among MLB clubs in terms of homegrown position-player starters taken in the first two rounds? According to Jon Becker, who along with Jason Martinez keeps Roster Resource running like a well-oiled machine, the Minnesotans top the list. Moreover, while the Baltimore Orioles have six, and three other clubs have five, the rest have notably fewer. Fully half of the 30 teams have no more than three, including the Houston Astros, Miami Marlins, and Toronto Blue Jays, who have none.

My colleague provided me with some other roster-construction breakdowns as well, but before we get to those, let’s hear from Minnesota’s president of baseball operations. I asked Derek Falvey what the aforementioned seven-of-nine says about his organization. Read the rest of this entry »

World Baseball Classic managers were made available to the media during the Winter Meetings, and I took that opportunity to ask Chinese Taipei’s Hao-Jiu Tseng about some of the best arms in Taiwan. I had specific pitchers in mind, but opted to begin with an open-ended question rather than cite any names. The response I got was likewise non-specific.

“I hope all pitchers from our team can be known by all baseball fans,” Tseng told me via an interpreter. “There are so many young pitchers. Most of them are still playing at the minor league level, but this tournament can help them improve their skills and experience, and someday grow into great players at a top level.”

The first pitcher he mentioned when I followed up was Wei-En Lin, a 20-year-old left-hander in the Athletics system who was featured here at FanGraphs back in August. The second was the hurler I was most interested in hearing about
.
“Jo Hsi Hsu pitches in the [Chinese Professional Baseball League], ”Tseng said of the recently-turned-25-year-old right-hander, who had a 2.05 ERA and 120 strikeouts, with just 78 hits allowed, over 114 innings for the Wei Chuan Dragons. “He is a posted player this offseason. Right now he is eligible to negotiate with foreign clubs. He possibly will transfer his contract to Japan or America. He is the ace of the CPBL. Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday morning, the Twins signed Josh Bell to a one-year contract with a mutual option for 2027. Between salary, signing bonus, and option buyout, the deal guarantees Bell $7 million. A couple hours later, the Phillies and outfielder Adolis García agreed to terms on a one-year, $10 million contract.

Look around whatever room you’re sitting in as you read this. Consider the material of the walls, the furniture, whatever appliances (if any) are in view. The carpet, or wood or laminate or tile of the floor. Pens and pencils, soap, hand lotion, power cables, books, magazines, children’s toys… whatever you can see, you know what it’d feel like and taste like if you licked it.

That’s from experience. At some point in your life, you put everything you encountered in your mouth, just to see what would happen. If you’ve ever raised a child, or met a child, or been a child, you know kids are always putting stuff in their mouths. You know equally well that kids aren’t supposed to do that. They could choke, or get sick, or otherwise come to harm by licking the sidewalk.

But they do it anyway, no matter how forcefully their parents remind them not to. There’s only one way to know for sure what the TV remote tastes like, and it’s too important an issue to take anyone else’s word for it. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2026 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

For the past several election cycles, as a means of completing my coverage of the major candidates before the December 31 voting deadline, I’ve grouped together some candidates into a single overview, inviting readers wishing to (re)familiarize themselves with the specifics of their cases to check out older profiles that don’t require a full re-working because very little has changed, even with regards to their voting shares. This year, I’m adding Bobby Abreu — a candidate for whom I’ve voted five times thus far and intend to include again — to a pair I’ve yet to include on my ballots.

Before Joe Mauer began starring for the Twins, there was Torii Hunter. Before Chase Utley began starring for the Phillies, they had Abreu and Jimmy Rollins. Hunter, a rangy, acrobatic center fielder who eventually won nine Gold Gloves and made five All-Star teams, debuted with Minnesota in 1997 and emerged as a star in 2001, the same year the Twins chose Mauer with the number one pick of the draft. The pair would play together from 2004 to ’07, making the playoffs twice before Hunter departed in free agency. Abreu, a five-tool player with dazzling speed, a sweet left-handed stroke, power, and outstanding plate discipline, quickly blossomed upon being traded to the Phillies in November 1997. But even while hitting at least 20 homers, stealing at least 20 bases, and batting above .300, recognition largely eluded him until he made All-Star teams in 2004 and ’05. Rollins, a compact shortstop who carried himself with a swagger, debuted in 2001 and made two All-Star teams before he and Utley began an 11-year run (2004–14) as the Phillies’ regular double play combination. By the time the pair of middle infielders helped Philadelphia to five NL East titles, two pennants, and a championship — with Rollins winning NL MVP honors in 2007 and taking home four Gold Gloves — Abreu was gone, traded to the Yankees in mid-2006.

All three players enjoyed lengthy and impressive careers, racking up over 2,400 hits apiece with substantial home run and stolen base totals. From a Hall of Fame perspective, Rollins and Hunter have credentials that appeal more to traditionally minded voters than to statheads — particularly their Gold Gloves — while Abreu, despite half a dozen .300 seasons and eight with at least 100 RBI, was a stathead favorite. Regardless, they’ve all spent years languishing on the ballot. Hunter debuted with 9.5% in 2021 but has yet to match that since, scraping by in 2025 with just 5.1%; one fewer vote and he’d have been bumped off the ballot. Rollins debuted with 9.4% in 2022 and has gained roughly two or three points in each cycle since, with 18% in ’25. Abreu barely made the cut with just 5.5% in his 2020 debut, and since then has alternated small gains and losses; he received 19.5% in 2025. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Minnesota Twins.

Batters

The Minnesota Twins are in a weird place. They looked to be legitimate AL Central contenders when this year began, but for the second straight year, they started slowly and dug themselves a pretty good hole. Just like in 2024, the Twins then got hot, surged to a bit over .500, and looked to right the ship somewhat in May and early June. But this year, after six weeks of lousy play knocked them out for good, they traded away Carlos Correa, and half of their bullpen, including Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, slashing payroll and appearing to set off a full rebuilding process. The initial buzz was that Pablo López and Joe Ryan would be looking for new homes this offseason, but they’ve stayed put so far, and the Twins are at least publicly saying they plan to build around the players they didn’t trade away. And it sort of makes sense, though I’m not sure if the Twins see it the same way I do.

The lineup looks to me — and ZiPS — as decidedly below average, but it should be noted that ZiPS is considerably less bullish about Brooks Lee at shortstop and the London Symphony Orchestra-sized cast in left field, seeing both of these positions as real problems. That puts me into the camp of having really mixed feelings about the Correa trade. One can see why a team that clearly didn’t want to run a high payroll might be uneasy spending that much money on Correa, who had one abbreviated awesome season and two underwhelming ones in Minnesota. But at the same time, Correa represented at least potential star performance at shortstop. ZiPS is a big fan of Kaelen Culpepper, who I like to imagine is the son of former Vikings quarterback Daunte Culpepper, but I’m not sure whether the Twins agree with ZiPS and plan on promoting him aggressively, or if they are simply happy to roll with Lee at shortstop. ZiPS also hopes that Emmanuel Rodriguez is healthy and cleans out left field quickly, though it’s still on the fence about the future of Walker Jenkins.

Byron Buxton remains, of course, the closest thing to a star on the team, but there’s always going to be the question of his health that limits the realistic expectation of his playing time. It’s encouraging that he had the most plate appearances of his major league career in 2025, but he’s also creeping into his mid-30s, when players become less durable. I remember being 32, also, and that was about the time where the aches and pains that I assumed would just magically go away in a week just… didn’t.

ZiPS is fine with Luke Keaschall at second, and sees Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, and Ryan Jeffers as the serviceable middle class of the lineup. But in addition to the poor projections at shortstop and in left, the DH ones are unimpressive, and ZiPS sees very little merit in the Josh Bell signing. Overall, I’m not sure the Twins really have the lineup to be anything but fringe AL Central contenders. While they’ve talked about building around their remaining talent, that also doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll spend that much to work on their current holes rather than trying to develop in-house options over the next two or three years.

Pitchers

Keeping Ryan and López, if that’s what the Twins actually plan to do, is a pretty big deal. With those two at the top, Minnesota would have a legitimate playoff-caliber rotation. Bailey Ober’s history is better than his 2025 performance, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to see him as a fine mid-rotation starter, and ZiPS has always been stanning for Zebby Matthews. Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley, and Mick Abel all get highly useful projections from ZiPS, and the computer really likes the organization’s minor league depth.

Meanwhile, Minnesota’s bullpen is interesting. Losing Duran and Jax really crossed out the top tier of the bullpen, but ZiPS still sees the remaining relievers as far more than merely viable. Cole Sands, Kody Funderburk, and Justin Topa all project as solid B-minus relievers, and ZiPS expects the Twins’ tradition of cobbling together a lot of their random Triple-A arms into real bullpen options to continue in 2026. Pierson Ohl, Connor Prielipp, David Festa, Andrew Morris, and Eric Orze all have projections just a shade less sunny than the first three pitchers mentioned at the top of the paragraph.

The easiest thing for people to do is set this past season as a baseline and understand that this team isn’t going to be much better in 2026. But using last season’s record as a baseline is generally a poor idea, as there’s a good argument that a lot of the 2025 Twins underperformed their actual ability. It’s the same kind of shortcut reasoning that caused people to underrate the Blue Jays going into this season, assuming that the Jays had to build up from their actual 74-win total in 2024 rather than from something closer to 81-83 wins, which was about Toronto’s true talent level. The 2025 Twins were better than a 70-92 team, but they do have some problems with their offense that they may or may not address between now and next season. If the season started today, the Twins look like a roughly .500 team, with their expected win total somewhere in the 78-84 range, but they’re close enough to good that if they were to hit their upside scenario, they could be an interesting contender. How much the Twins end up pushing that upside scenario, rather than simply deciding not to make the team worse, is something I just don’t know yet.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2026 due to injury, and players who were released in 2025. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Ambient Math-Rock Trip-Hop Yacht Metal band that only performs in abandoned malls, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on Bluesky. This last is, however, not an actual requirement.