FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: August 16, 2025

Brett Davis-Imagn Images

I love a large lad who steals bases. That’s why I was thrilled when my friend Kevin submitted a mailbag question about Juan Soto’s base-stealing binge this season. I thought Davy Andrews would be the perfect person to answer Kevin’s query because he’d already written about the Mets’ stolen-base efficiency back in June. And I was correct; Davy was the perfect person. So perfect, in fact, that he wrote a whole article about it instead.

When I let Kevin know about Davy’s piece, he followed up with a question about Josh Naylor, who rather shockingly has stolen 22 bases as of Friday morning. Of course, Naylor is now teammates with Cal Raleigh, another slow runner with double-digit steals. The topic was too rich for me to resist, so that’s where we’ll begin today.

Before we do, though, I’d like to give a quick happy 20th birthday shoutout to FanGraphs! I’m sure David Appelman will be pleased to know that I was nine years old when he created and launched this wonderful website. Oh, and as always, I’ll remind you all that while anyone can submit a question, this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2362: Poob Has Baseball for You

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about whether any of the teams that sold at the trade deadline can make an improbable playoff run, whether the Dodgers’ position in the playoff race refutes or confirms preseason fears about their advantages, and the accelerating splintering of sports broadcasts (MLB on the Poob tube!), then answer emails (41:40) about Roman Anthony’s OBP, driving/batting in runs with walks, and Juan Soto vs. players traded for him, before (1:03:34) talking to FanGraphs founder David Appelman about the site’s 20th anniversary.

Audio intro: Luke Lillard, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio interstitial: Austin Klewan, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: El Warren, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to FG playoff odds
Link to divisional comebacks story
Link to Paine on bad/expensive teams
Link to burgers story
Link to BP IL Ledger
Link to baseball streaming story
Link to streaming meme
Link to more on the meme
Link to streaming expenses story
Link to Bois on Bonds
Link to listener emails database
Link to previous Appelman appearance
Link to Appelman’s birthday appearance
Link to death of dial-up
Link to Crawford conversation
Link to Speier post
Link to podcast-description stats

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The Revamped Padres Have Surged into First Place in the NL West

Robert Edwards-Imagn Images

Don’t look now, but for the first time in three and a half months, the NL West has a new leader. While the Dodgers have struggled to the point of face-planting, the Padres have surged, producing a 10-game swing in the NL West standings since July 3 thanks in large part to a dominant bullpen and some timely upgrades ahead of the July 31 trade deadline. The Southern California rivals are set to square off six times in the next 10 days, starting with a weekend series in Los Angeles — but the Padres will be without staff ace Michael King, who landed on the injured list on Thursday due to left knee inflammation.

After notching 93 victories last season — the second-highest total in franchise history — and making the playoffs for the third year out of five, the Padres bolted out of the gate in 2025, winning 15 of their first 19 games and spending much of April leading the division. They fell out of the top spot on April 26, but spent the next six weeks or so within striking distance before a 13-15 June dragged them down. Both the Padres and Giants were nine games out of first at the close of play on July 3, but since then, San Diego has put up the NL’s second-best record behind only Milwaukee (28-5), while Los Angeles and San Francisco are tied for the league’s third-worst record, half a game better than lowly Colorado and Washington (both 12-22):

Padres and Dodgers Before and After July 3
Padres W-L W% RS RA Pyth% 1-run 1-Run W%
Thru July 3 46-40 .535 4.09 3.97 .515 18-14 .563
Since July 4 23-12 .657 4.49 3.31 .607 7-2 .778
Change +.122 0.40 -0.66 +.092 +.215
Dodgers W-L W% RS RA Pyth% 1-Run 1-Run W%
Thru July 3 56-32 .636 5.61 4.48 .602 16-9 .640
Since July 4 12-21 .364 4.00 4.61 .436 3-9 .250
Change -.272 -1.61 +0.13 -.166 -.390

The Padres took over first place on Wednesday afternoon in emphatic fashion, scoring seven second-inning runs off control-challenged Giants stater Kai-Wei Teng and cruising to an 11-1 victory. With that, they completed a three-game sweep, extended their winning streak to five games, and claimed their 14th victory in their last 17 games dating back to July 26. Later that night, the Dodgers coughed up a 5-2 lead, allowing the Angels to sweep them in Anaheim and knock them a full game out of first. Read the rest of this entry »


Kansas City’s Noah Cameron Is Having a Stellar Rookie Season

Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

Noah Cameron has been one of the best rookie pitchers in the American League this season. When the 26-year-old Kansas City Royals southpaw takes the mound tonight against the Chicago White Sox, he’ll do so with a 2.52 ERA and a 3.67 FIP over 16 starts comprising 93 innings. Moreover, his 6-5 won-loss record isn’t representative of his overall effectiveness. In his five no-decisions, Cameron has tossed 29 innings and surrendered just one run.

Ranked third on our Royals Top Prospects list when it went up in late May as a 50 FV prospect, Cameron was described by Eric Longenhagen and James Fegan as “a very stable rotation piece… though he lacks star-level stuff.” That assessment rings true. Not only does Cameron’s 92.2 mph fastball rank in just the 19th percentile in terms of velocity, none of his pitches stand out in a vacuum. By and large, the 6-foot-3, 220-pound lefty dominates lineups by mixing and matching with aplomb. This season, he has thrown 27.2% four-seamers, 19.5% cutters, 18.96% changeups, 18.0% curveballs, and 16.6% sliders. Any pitch at any time is his modus operandi.

“I’m more of an old-school pitcher,” Cameron told me recently. “I’m not a flamethrower — I don’t throw upper 90s or anything like that — so I more lean on reading swings, looking at scouting reports, finding the hitters’ weaknesses. My mentality is to keep guys off balance and try to get quick outs by attacking the zone early. I’m OK with a strikeout, but I’m also OK with a fly out or a ground out. Getting guys outs as efficiently as I can is what I’m trying to do.” Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 8/15/25

Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Turns 20 Years Old Today!

Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

FanGraphs turns 20 years old today!

As you’ve no doubt noticed, we’ve added some balloons to the site to mark the occasion. If you click on one, you’ll be presented with an article that’s been deemed a worthy piece of FanGraphs history by our current staff, FanGraphs alumni, and industry friends. (I hope you’ll add your favorites in the comments here.)

Beyond the balloons, 20 years seemed like an appropriate moment to reflect on how the site started, and how it has gotten to where it is today.

I started FanGraphs when I was 23 years old. I was working at AOL, and my job involved putting together powerpoint decks of dialup metric graphs for executives. I thought the dialup business’ days were numbered — somewhat ironic, since dialup seems to have lived on for almost exactly 20 more years. Read the rest of this entry »


Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week, August 15

Curt Hogg/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. August is a great time for reflection in the baseball world. The trade deadline has passed, which means what you see is pretty much what you get roster-wise. The playoff picture is generally clear, but no one has clinched yet. It’s too early to think about postseason rotations, but too late to think about turning the year around. The urgency mostly isn’t there – unless you’re a Mets fan trying to ward off 25 years of ghosts, of course. But the downtime of the baseball season has its own small delights, and even when you aren’t watching the brightest stars on the biggest stage, baseball is awesome. So thanks as always to Zach Lowe of The Ringer for the column format, and let’s get going.

1. Opportunity
The Twins might have traded away a ton of their major league roster at the deadline, but that doesn’t mean they’re filling up the lineup with replacement players they found at a local tryout. Seven of the nine everyday position players on the current squad were drafted by Minnesota in the first two rounds. The other two, Alan Roden and Kody Clemens, aren’t exactly nobodies – they’re both third round draft picks the Twins acquired this year, and of course Clemens’ dad is famous too.

It’s tough sledding for Quad-A players looking for a major league shot. But while the starters still look like your average major leaguer when it comes to their amateur pedigree, the bench is another matter. Mickey Gasper was a 27th rounder who didn’t debut until he was 28. But he’s only the second-most improbable Twin. Ryan Fitzgerald went undrafted in 2016, didn’t reach Triple-A until he was 27, and finally got his major league break earlier this year as a 30-year-old. He went 0-3 in a single game as an injury replacement, pinch-ran in another, and got sent back down. Sometimes life in the bigs is nasty, brutish, and short.
Read the rest of this entry »


History Repeats Itself for Cade Horton

David Banks-Imagn Images

Cade Horton gave up a run on Wednesday night. Kind of. He was charged with a run because he exited the game with two men on base, but it was Andrew Kittredge who allowed the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sea-skimming missile that brought the run home. Not to criticize Kittredge; the odd 111.8-mph double is an occupational hazard of pitching to Vladito.

That run was the first one Horton had surrendered in five starts since the All-Star Break; taking things back to his final outing before the Midsummer Classic, Horton’s scoreless streak had run to 29 innings. In those five starts, Horton has allowed 11 hits total, only one of them for extra bases.

As for his most recent start, I don’t think Horton or the Cubs will be too broken up about the inherited runner. Not only did Chicago win the game, but also Horton set a new career high with eight strikeouts and made the Blue Jays wait until the sixth inning for their first hit. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Miami Marlins – Director of Baseball Data

Director of Baseball Data

At the Miami Marlins, we make waves — on and off the field.

We’re built for sustainable success thanks to our commitment to being great teammates, bold innovators, and thinking long-term. These three pillars guide us in championing a winning culture across the organization. The work we do doesn’t just impact our team — it reaches fans and communities across South Florida.

Position Summary
The Director of Baseball Data will lead the data engineering team within Baseball Systems, overseeing the architecture, development, and maintenance of our data infrastructure. This role will be responsible for designing and implementing scalable, high-performance data pipelines that support analytics, player evaluation, and decision-making across Baseball Operations. The ideal candidate will have deep expertise in data engineering, cloud computing, and database technologies, along with strong leadership and project management skills.

Essential Functions

  • Develop and execute the long-term data strategy for Baseball Systems, ensuring alignment with organizational goals.
  • Lead the design, implementation, and optimization of scalable data pipelines and storage solutions.
  • Oversee the integration of multiple internal and external data sources, ensuring data quality, consistency, and accessibility.
  • Manage a team of data engineers, providing mentorship, technical guidance, and professional development.
  • Collaborate with R&D, Player Development, Scouting, and Performance Science teams to understand data needs and deliver innovative solutions.
  • Implement best practices for data governance, security, and compliance within the baseball data ecosystem.
  • Evaluate and integrate new technologies and tools to enhance data processing, analytics, and machine learning workflows.
  • Establish and maintain data documentation, ensuring transparency and usability across the organization.
  • Work closely with the Director of Baseball Applications to align data infrastructure with application development.
  • Drive continuous improvement in data engineering processes, fostering a culture of innovation and efficiency.

Our Values
We Are Great Teammates

  • Supports and encourages colleagues.
  • Provides and receives feedback without judgement or ego.
  • Holds one another to a high standard.
  • Provides help and encouragement proactively.
  • Assumes positive intentions from others.
  • Looks for ways to help make their teammates better.

We Are Innovators

  • Embraces a growth mindset.
  • Challenges conventional wisdom.
  • Unafraid to fail.
  • Pushes boundaries and doesn’t accept impossible.
  • Asks why and asks why not.

We Think Long-Term

  • Asks: what can I do today that will pay off a year from now.
  • Eschews instant gratification for bigger benefits in the future.
  • Always trying to think three steps ahead.

Skill Requirements

  • Expertise in SQL, Python, and data pipeline orchestration tools such as Apache Airflow.
  • Strong experience with cloud computing platforms (Google Cloud, AWS, or Azure).
  • Deep understanding of database technologies, including relational (PostgreSQL, MySQL, SQL Server) and NoSQL (MongoDB, BigQuery) systems. Knowledge of Snowflake is a plus.
  • Knowledge of modern data architecture concepts, including data lakes, real-time processing, and distributed systems.
  • Familiarity with CI/CD pipelines, containerization (Docker, Kubernetes), and infrastructure as code (Terraform, CloudFormation).
  • Strong analytical and problem-solving skills with a focus on performance optimization.
  • Excellent communication and leadership abilities, with a track record of managing and developing teams.
  • Experience working in sports analytics or baseball operations is a plus.
  • Strong attention to detail and organizational skills.

Education & Experience Guidelines

  • Bachelor’s or Master’s degree in Computer Science, Data Engineering, or a related field.
  • Minimum of 7+ years of experience in data engineering, with at least 3+ years in a leadership role.
  • Proven experience designing and managing large-scale data infrastructure in a cloud environment.
  • Experience in the sports industry or a passion for baseball is preferred.
  • Experience with Baseball Data, Biomechanical Data, and Tracking Systems is preferred.

Work Environment

  • Ability to work evenings, weekends, and holidays as needed.
  • Availability to travel occasionally for industry conferences or organizational needs.
  • Ability to sit/stand for extended periods and work in an office environment.

We are an equal opportunity employer, and all qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, national origin, sex, sexual orientation, age, disability, gender identity, marital, or veteran status, or any other protected status.

Job Questions:

  1. Describe your experience working with baseball-specific data sources (e.g., Statcast, TrackMan, Hawkeye, biomechanics, scouting reports).
  2. What’s your philosophy on managing a high-performing data engineering team?

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Miami Marlins.


Effectively Wild Episode 2361: The Fleeting Tie

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the bounceback season of Trevor Rogers, the NL Cy Young race, career achievement awards, observations from a Shohei Ohtani start, the NL West race, and the significance of the Pohlads’ decision not to sell the Twins. Then (42:36) they answer listener emails about check-swing appeals, how the changing media landscape could affect fandom, streak freezes, when a game is tied, scattering hits, walk-away wins, Red Sox pain vs. Yankees pain, Toronto’s run differential, and Adam Dunn vs. Kyle Schwarber.

Audio intro: Gabriel-Ernest, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Ian Phillips, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to Rogers leaderboard
Link to Rogers tattoo episode
Link to NL WAR leaderboard
Link to Academy Honorary Award
Link to outfield defense laggards
Link to public enemy no. 1 clip
Link to Ohtani pitch usage
Link to splitter to Rengifo
Link to Padres/Dodgers fun fact
Link to Dodgers FG post
Link to Sportico on the Twins
Link to The Athletic on the Twins
Link to Manfred on the sale
Link to “sell the team” story
Link to umpire manual
Link to Sam on the umpire manual
Link to KBO check-swing story
Link to Duolingo mascot story
Link to “Railroad Daddy”
Link to team wins since 2018
Link to blowout-adjusted Pythag
Link to gradient wins
Link to Ben on Dunn vs. Pierre
Link to Poscast episode
Link to listener emails database

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