FanGraphs Baseball

Eight months ago, Aaron Judge turned down a seven-year contract extension worth more than $200 million. Judge’s dice roll has officially paid off for him as, after a brief flirtation with the NL West, he remains with the Yankees on a nine-year, $360 million deal that ensures that he’ll spend most, if not all, of his career in pinstripes.

$213 million wasn’t an unreasonable offer given the facts on the ground in April. While Judge had a rookie season of mega-ultra-super-duper-star quality in 2017, he had failed to come close to that level in recent years. It would be an enormous stretch to say he struggled or was disappointing, but Judge entered 2022 with only one full, healthy season in the last four campaigns. To land a huge upgrade on that pre-season contract offer as a free agent entering his age-31 season, Judge would basically need to match his .284/.422/.627, 8.7 WAR rookie year.

He did more than that. Read the rest of this entry »

On December 2, the Arizona Diamondbacks came to terms with 27-year-old free agent reliever Miguel Castro on a one-year, $3.5 million contract. I wouldn’t blame you if you failed to catch the news amidst the flurry of moves and rumors from the Winter Meetings; the Turners and deGroms of the world have stolen much of the focus. Nevertheless, while his signing was relatively small, I was drawn to write about Castro for several reasons. For one thing, he’s just a lot of fun to watch. I mean, tell me you disagree:

Standing 6-foot-7, Castro is one of the taller pitchers in baseball, but his listed weight is only 205 pounds. To put that in perspective, he’s the same height as Aaron Judge but with about 75% of the body mass. Yet despite his slim frame, Castro throws high heat in an effortless fashion, whipping his long limbs around to sling a sinker at 98 mph. The length of his extremities also allows him good extension on top of his velocity. To finish it off, he tends to complete his delivery with a bit of extra flair on his back leg kick. Simply put, it’s a unique and satisfying pitching motion — the slime ASMR of windups, if you will. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re now in the thick of the annual Winter Meetings, and we saw a handful of free-agent starters fly off the board on Tuesday. First, Andrew Heaney signed with the Rangers. Then the insatiable Phillies gobbled up Taijuan Walker. And before an eventful day came to a close, the Cubs finally opened their wallet by inking Jameson Taillon to a four-year deal worth $68 million.

This has been a player-friendly market, and one that’s been particularly rewarding to starting pitchers. All three listed above tore through their crowdsourced contract estimates and Ben Clemens’ own: Heaney got not one but two years with an opt-out; Walker beat his projected contract total by $30 million; and Taillon also exceeded expectations by a similar margin. It’s clear teams have been willing to spend, but it’s also evidence of just how scarce starting pitching is nowadays. There’s nary a pitcher who can carry the burden of 200-plus innings, so the 170–180 mark seems like the new gold standard. Heaney’s appeal lies in his upside, not durability, but you could count on Walker and Taillon to provide a full season’s worth of starts.

The Cubs needed a rotation stalwart. That their most reliable starter last season was Marcus Stroman, who recorded a 3.50 ERA across 138.2 frames, isn’t great news. Late-bloomer Justin Steele had the best rate statistics, but he’ll probably only see a minor increase to his workload. Kyle Hendricks is on the last year of his contract and well past his prime, and counting on Adrian Sampson for a second season would be most unwise. Chicago has a couple of pitching prospects on their way, and Hayden Wesneski looked promising in his first big league forays. But as always, the issue is innings, innings, innings. The Cubs would most definitely prefer to protect their young starters and test their potential in abbreviated outings. Taillon is the big brother who can absorb the second and third times through an order. Read the rest of this entry »

A few days after signing Jacob deGrom to lead their rotation, the Texas Rangers continued to bolster their pitching staff, signing Andrew Heaney to a two-year contract that could be worth up to $37 million total. The base salary is $25 million with up to $12 million in additional incentives; the deal also includes an opt-out after 2023.

After limping to a 5.83 ERA in 2021 while pitching for the Angels and Yankees, Heaney signed a one-year, bounce-back deal with the Dodgers, and bounce back he did. With a 25.4% career strikeout rate, he’s had no problems sending batters down on strikes over the years. He took that ability to new levels in 2022, pushing his strikeout rate to a career-high 35.5% while also logging career bests in ERA (3.10) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.79).

However, that penchant for Ks comes with a really nasty habit of allowing far too many home runs. Over the last five seasons, his 27.2% strikeout rate ranks 28th among all qualified starting pitchers, while his 1.64 HR/9 ranks 12th. He was able to offset some of that damage with his improvements this year, but it’s a real sticking point that has held him back from becoming one of the premiere starters in baseball. Read the rest of this entry »

You might have heard that the Mets got hit by a record 112 pitches in 2022, but New York wasn’t the only record breaker in that particular category. Cincinnati’s pitching staff breezed by the 2021 Cubs’ modern era record of 98 HBPs with weeks left in the season, and they kept right on plunking. In the last game of the year, Graham Ashcraft sailed a sinker into both the triceps of Patrick Wisdom and the record books, giving the Reds 110 hit batters for the season. That number edged them past the 1899 Cleveland Spiders as the most contact-oriented team of all-time.

Those bloodthirsty Spiders hit 109 batters and lost 134 games, then folded just before the invention of the zeppelin. Eleven of those HBPs and losses were credited to Harry Colliflower, a former carpenter who won his first start, then lost 11 straight decisions and his spot in the big leagues. That’s the company the 2022 Reds kept. Read the rest of this entry »

With Meg Rowley on the IL, Ben Lindbergh and FanGraphs author Dan Szymborski discuss the first batch of news from a busy Winter Meetings, including the big-money market as a whole, the blockbuster signings of Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and Trea Turner, the outlooks for the Rangers, Dodgers, and Astros, the Padres’ interest in Turner and its implications for Fernando Tatis Jr., the genre of rumors about teams that tried to acquire players, the Brewers-Mariners trade involving Kolten Wong, Jesse Winker, and Abraham Toro, Brian Cashman re-upping with the Yankees, Bryan Reynolds demanding a trade from the Pirates, Fred McGriff’s election to the Hall of Fame, and more, plus postscript updates about late-breaking news/signings, followups, and a Past Blast from 1938.

Audio intro: Jon Jacob, “Buffalo Killers”
Audio outro: Parquet Courts, “This is Happening Now”

Link to Rosenthal on the market
Link to Dan on deGrom
Link to Ben Clemens on deGrom
Link to Baumann on Verlander
Link to Heyman on deGrom
Link to Heyman on Verlander
Link to thread on old top starters
Link to Jay on Turner
Link to MLBTR on the Turner rumors
Link to Baumann on the Brewers trade
Link to tweet about Winker
Link to Dipoto payroll comments
Link to FG post on Martin
Link to FG post on Estévez
Link to Twitter thread on Estévez
Link to Reynolds request
Link to Jay on the committee
Link to Jay on the HoF results
Link to Dan’s Nats projections
Link to Ben on forecasting chemistry
Link to NBA trophy news
Link to Lindsey on PitchCom
Link to EW Episode 1577
Link to road-attendance sheet
Link to Apstein on Boras
Link to Boras EW episode
Link to “Arson Judge” tweet
Link to Insider baseballs report
Link to 1938 story source
Link to SABR on the 1938 Meetings
Link to WWE belt story
Link to Jacob Pomrenke’s website
Link to Jacob Pomrenke on Twitter

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No team hates hitting for power as much as the Cleveland Guardians.

Roughly a league-average offense overall, the Guardians ranked near the bottom — and absolute rock bottom among offenses that were worth a damn — in home runs and ISO. You’d hope that such a team would also be particularly good at putting the ball in play, and you’d be right; Cleveland had the highest team contact rate and lowest strikeout rate in baseball. José Ramírez has been the Guardians’ franchise player for several years, and by 2022 the team had basically been built in his image: short guys with high contact rates.

Three Cleveland hitters — Ramírez, Steven Kwan, and Myles Straw — finished in the top 13 in strikeout rate among qualified hitters and were among the 21 hardest hitters to strike out. The team leader in strikeouts was Andrés Giménez, a 5-foot-11 middle infielder who hit .297 with a strikeout rate of just 20.1%. For comparison, the Braves, who won 101 games and scored the third-most runs in baseball, had nine hitters with 300 or more plate appearances last year; every single one of them had a higher strikeout rate than Giménez did.

This is the last team in baseball you’d expect to sink big money into a 260-pound first baseman with a 37-homer season in his recent past, particularly considering the franchise’s famous frugality. Cleveland ran a payroll of just $69 million last year, after all. But Josh Bell isn’t your garden variety big fella. If he were, the Guardians would not have signed him to a two-year, $33 million contract, as Jon Heyman reported Tuesday afternoon. Read the rest of this entry »

MLB’s annual winter meetings usually prompt free-agent signings. The last time they were held before COVID-19 interrupted the league’s yearly schedule, Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and Anthony Rendon all signed. This year feels like more of the same; Jacob deGrom signed in the leadup to the meetings, Trea Turner and Justin Verlander signed during them, and several other top free agents are rumored to be next.

But not every signing can be thunderous. The Pirates aren’t going to make the World Series next year. They probably won’t win 80 games; they went 62–100 in 2022 and haven’t approached .500 since they went 82–79 in 2018. But they made two signings on Tuesday in San Diego, adding Vince Velasquez and Jarlín García on one-year deals worth $3.15 million and $2.5 million, respectively. García’s deal also contains a club option for 2024 worth $3.25 million.

Neither of these deals will alter the balance of power in the NL Central, but I think both make plenty of sense for Pittsburgh. Let’s start with the starter — or at least, the pitcher who more resembles a starter. Velasquez flashed tantalizing potential over five-plus seasons with the Phillies, but inconsistent command and secondaries held him back. He spent 2022 on the White Sox as a swingman, jumping to the rotation when injuries hit the projected starters. Read the rest of this entry »

Free-agent reliever Carlos Estévez has signed a two-year contract worth $13.5 million with the Angels, continuing a busy offseason in Anaheim that has already seen Tyler Anderson, Gio Urshela, and Hunter Renfroe join the roster.

#Angels sign Carlos Estevez to a 2-year deal for $13.5-million.

Don’t know yet if they plan for him to close, but Bud Black just said he has closer stuff and a closer mentality.

— Jeff Fletcher (@JeffFletcherOCR) December 5, 2022

Estévez, who turns 30 next month, has spent his entire professional career with the Rockies, playing his first six seasons in the hitter’s paradise of Coors Field. His 4.59 ERA and 4.21 FIP in 302 career innings appear a bit inflated, but they’re actually a touch better than league average (94 ERA- and FIP-). His 2022 campaign, while normal-looking on the surface, was statistically odd in many ways. Despite earning fewer strikes than ever, he set a career best in terms of overall run prevention with a 3.47 ERA, making him the second-most effective reliever on Colorado’s staff.

Wait — a .247 BABIP allowed while pitching in Coors, a stadium whose .323 BABIP ranked highest among all parks? And an above-average 10.1% HR/FB rate in the sixth-most homer-friendly park in baseball? And that was despite it being easier to make contact against Estévez than at any other point during his career? Read the rest of this entry »

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and today’s team is the Washington Nationals.

Batters

If there’s any silver lining for a team that will likely be at the bottom of the division, it’s that this is a fairly decent floor for a last-place squad, unless it faces particularly bad injury luck. There are no projected stars remaining anywhere on the roster, but the Nationals do have a pretty good front line of fringe options at most positions. When we mash-up the ZiPS projections and the current iteration of the depth charts, no individual position combines for three wins, but no position comes in at under a win either. Players like Victor Robles, Joey Meneses, and Jeimer Candelario may not have exciting upside, but they’re at least major league players. I’d be midly surprised to see Washington lose 107 games, which it did last season even with a half-season from Juan Soto and Josh Bell.

ZiPS still sees CJ Abrams as risky and is just about out of hope for Carter Kieboom. There’s a bright spot in the form of Jake Alu, who destroyed pitchers in the high minors, even when you take the 2022 helium out of those numbers in the form of a translation. ZiPS doesn’t see him being a near-star offensive player, but the probabilistic measure I use had him as one of the best defensive minor league players; he’s listed as +5 runs at third base, and if ZiPS had been as confident about the translated defense estimate as it is about MLB defensive measures, the projection would actually be +12. Meneses gets a better projection than similar veteran surprise Frank Schwindel got after 2021, and ZiPS sees Alex Call as a legitimate stopgap corner outfielder of the Anthony Santander variety. Abrams, along with Keibert Ruiz and Luis García, has significant upside, and it wouldn’t take much to see any of these projections blow up in a positive way with some real steps forwards from these youngsters. Read the rest of this entry »