The Red Sox got to work on their 2026 bullpen over the holiday weekend, signing closer Aroldis Chapman to a contract extension that keeps him in Boston for at least one more season. Chapman’s one-year, $13.3 million deal comes in the form of a $12 million salary for next season, a $1 million signing bonus, and a $300,000 buyout if a $13 million mutual option for 2027 is not exercised. That option becomes guaranteed if he pitches 40 innings in 2026 and passes a physical exam after the season.

After appearing to be in decline for at least a few years and falling out of the conversation of baseball’s top closers — and at times losing the closer’s role altogether — Chapman is dominating in his first season with the Red Sox. Entering play Tuesday, he has a 1.00 ERA and a 1.78 FIP over 54 innings with 77 strikeouts and 14 walks. No, you didn’t misread that last part: Chapman has issued only 14 free passes this season across 54 innings, which works out to a rate of 7.1% and 2.33 BB/9 — by far the lowest marks of his career. Even at his absolute best, Chapman would walk three or four batters per nine innings, a reasonable trade-off for the rest of his skillset. However, as he aged, that control degraded, and from 2021 through 2024, he walked 15% of the batters he faced. So, for him to suddenly put up the best control season of his career, at age 37, is an impressive feat.

ESPN’s Buster Olney talked a bit about how Chapman’s approach changed in the spring, but the basic explanation for what we’re seeing is he has stopped throwing his fastball down the middle. Instead, on the advice of Boston catcher Connor Wong and with the assistance of PitchCom, Chapman is now actually trying to spot his heater. While this is the type of anecdote that sometimes sounds like folklore, the data do suggest that Chapman is suddenly locating his fastball with dramatically more competence than in the past. According to Stuff+, Chapman’s Location+ of 179 for his fastball is the fifth-best number ever tallied (min. 40 innings), compared to the 94 he ran over his past four seasons. His sinker, once a sideshow in his repertoire, has become its focal point in the way the slider once was. This isn’t a sinker thrown to induce a groundball but to be an out pitch, a 100-mph sinker high and outside against righties, high and hard on the hands of lefties. Only one player in Statcast history has ever finished with a better whiff rate on his sinker than Chapman’s 38.9% this season: Josh Hader in 2019 (40.7%) and 2021 (40.5%). Read the rest of this entry »

This is the second post in a series I’m working on in which I not only do a deep dive analyzing shortstop prospects’ defense, but also cut together a video package so that you can too. The first installment can be found in the navigation widget above. Today, I’m tackling Red Sox prospect Franklin Arias, Yankees prospect George Lombard Jr., Cardinals prospect JJ Wetherholt, and Reds prospect Edwin Arroyo. Let’s get started. Read the rest of this entry »

When Troy Melton was first featured here at FanGraphs in August 2023, he was described as a “Tigers Pitching Prospect on the Rise.” Then with High-A West Michigan and in his first full professional season, the 2022 fourth-rounder out of San Diego State University was climbing the rankings thanks largely to a firm fastball and plus command. As Eric Longenhagen put it, “His fastball’s impact alone should be enough to make him a good big league reliever even if his secondary stuff doesn’t develop.”

Two years later, the 24-year-old right-hander was ranked the fifth-best prospect in the Tigers system and 70th overall in our 2025 updated Top 100 list. His ascent has landed him in Motown, and a markedly improved repertoire is a big reason why. Moreover, he has been one of the team’s most effective pitchers since his late-July arrival. Over 10 appearances — seven out of the bullpen and three as a starter — Melton has logged a 2.25 ERA and a 3.66 FIP over 32 innings.

An argument could be made that Melton is currently the second-best starting pitcher on the Tigers roster — behind only Tarik Skubal — even though he isn’t getting an opportunity to show it. The AL Central leaders are primarily using the rookie as a reliever, the reasons being twofold: The 107 1/3 innings he’s thrown between the minors and majors are already a career high, and Detroit would rather use him more than just every fifth day. According to Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press, manager A.J. Hinch said, “It’s an advantage to have Troy Melton available more often, even if it’s just in shorter bursts.”

Hinch went on to say that the Tigers “may start him down the road this season,” and results suggest that could be a good idea. Over the past six weeks, the foursome of Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Charlie Morton, and Chris Paddack has registered ERAs ranging from 4.66 to 5.81. Meanwhile, Melton’s mark over his three starts, covering 17 innings, is 3.18. Prior to his call-up, the youngster fashioned a 2.72 ERA and a 32.4% strikeout rate across 18 games (16 starts) with Triple-A Toledo. Read the rest of this entry »

Aside from a brief run last October — one that culminated with a surprise cameo to close out last year’s World Series — Walker Buehler has scarcely resembled the pitcher who from 2019–21 made two All-Star teams and helped the Dodgers win a championship. The Red Sox took a shot at fixing him, and now the Phillies will try as well, hoping at the very least that he can provide some useful innings down the stretch and land a spot on their playoff roster.

The 31-year-old Buehler, who signed a one-year, $21.05 million deal with Boston in January, was roughed up for a 5.45 ERA and 5.89 FIP in 112.1 innings with the Red Sox, slightly higher than his marks with the Dodgers last year (5.38 ERA, 5.54 FIP in 75.1 innings) after returning from his second Tommy John surgery. He made 22 starts for the Red Sox, but his continued struggles led the team to pull him from the rotation after his August 19 start, a four-inning, four-walk, two-run outing against the Orioles. After just one relief appearance, in which he allowed two runs in 2.1 innings against the Yankees on August 24, the Red Sox released him last Friday while still owing him roughly $3.4 million.

The Red Sox — who at 77-62 are tied for the AL Wild Card lead despite weathering numerous starting pitcher injuries and disappointments — had considered replacing Buehler in the rotation with rookie Richard Fitts. But when the 25-year-old rookie landed on the injured list due to a bout of neuritis in his right arm, the team needed to add another starter, and the call-up of prospect Payton Tolle cost Buehler his spot on the 40-man roster. Read the rest of this entry »

On August 20, Paige Bueckers, rookie for the WNBA’s Dallas Wings, dropped 44 points against the Los Angeles Sparks, the most ever scored by a rookie in a single game. When Bueckers passed the previous single-game rookie scoring record (40 points, set by Candace Parker, who won MVP that year), one of the broadcasters remarked that her performance in the game effectively guaranteed her Rookie of the Year honors. Heading into the season, Bueckers was favored to win the award, but strong play from Washington Mystics rookie Sonia Citron forced WNBA analysts to reconsider what once had felt like a foregone conclusion. Bueckers needed the 44-point game to reclaim her place as the sport’s top rookie.

In the WNBA’s 40-game season, one game can legitimately swing an awards race, especially in the context of a sport where a star player can dominate a game and a point guard like Bueckers touches the ball on every possession. To find an analog in a 162-game baseball season, one might have to look for a hot streak spanning several games or a particularly close race that features a game with enough narrative heft to sway the sensibilities of the writers voting on the award. Looking back at recent rookie seasons reveals a few possible examples. Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! I hope you all enjoyed your three-day weekends. I had a lovely one here, one that included a surprise solo parenting job as I took my daughter and her friend to see the Brooklyn Cyclones on Sunday; my wife planned to go instead of the friend, but came down with a migraine (ugh). Fortunately, it all went well, everybody had fun and I came home with the same number of kids I brought.

12:02

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a thing on Walker Buehler joining the Phillies that’s about to go live. Did some injury roundups as they pertain to contenders late last week. Here’s the NL one: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/watch-those-fingers-a-roundup-of-recent-in…

12:03

Jay Jaffe: And here’s the AL one: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-roundup-of-recent-injuries-among-the-al-…

12:03

Jay Jaffe: pour one out for Corey Seager, yeesh.

12:03

Jay Jaffe: Ok, on with the show…

Read the rest of this entry »

Lake Bachar was a kicker at the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater before turning his full attention to baseball. He had a good leg. An all-conference performer, Bachar booted three field goals in the 2014 NCAA Division III championship game, a 43-34 Warhawks win over the Mount Union Raiders. Along with being a place kicker, he served as the team’s punter and kickoff specialist across his three collegiate seasons on the gridiron.

How good was he in his other sport?

“I was decent,” said Bachar, who now pitches out of the bullpen for the Miami Marlins. “I don’t know about NFL kicker, but at that time I was going to try do whatever I could to at least go to a [tryout] camp. The longest field goal I kicked in practice was 68 [yards] — good conditions, and all that — and the longest in a game was either high 40s or low 50s.”

Baseball has turned out to be a good career choice, although it took him awhile to reach the majors. Drafted by the San Diego Padres in 2016, the fifth-rounder was 29 years old when he debuted with the Marlins last September. His first full big-league season has been impressive. Over 43 relief appearances, the right-hander has a 5-1 record and a pair of saves to go with his 3.39 ERA and 3.77 FIP over 58-and-a-third innings. His strikeout rate is a solid 26.7%.

Selected off waivers by Miami shortly before his debut, Bachar attributes his late-bloomer breakthrough to “being in the right place at the right time,” as well as some fine-tuning of his pitches. A four-seamer that gets ride-run and a splitter that he’s thrown since 2020 comprise half of his arsenal. The other offerings are breakers new to this year. Read the rest of this entry »

Hello, and welcome to this week’s mailbag! Matt Martell is on a well-deserved
vacation, so I’m piloting things in his stead. Matt picked a pretty good time to get some R&R; with about a month left in the season, the playoff field is basically set. As Michael Baumann noted in his piece yesterday, “there has not been a playoff race so settled this early in the season as this year’s National League. At least not in the past 12 seasons. There’s always been someone with some hope in each league, even in the two-Wild Card rounds, and especially in that hateful COVID-necessitated 16-team bracket from 2020. Not this year in the NL. Barely, this year, in the AL.” Entering play on Friday, the Reds trailed the Mets by four games for the final NL Wild Card spot; their playoff odds sat at a paltry 4.4%. The Junior Circuit didn’t offer much more intrigue; the Royals, sitting three games back of the Mariners for the third Wild Card in that league, had playoff odds of just 12.6% as the long weekend loomed.

But that doesn’t mean there’s no fun to be had. Kyle Schwarber hit four home runs in one game this week! Jonah Tong and Payton Tolle made their major league debuts! There’s Hi-Chew aplenty! And while we basically know who will be playing October baseball, both of the West divisions remain unsettled.

Your questions this week don’t specifically concern the playoff race, though two of them involve key players on teams that hope to make deep postseason runs. We’ll also zoom out to contemplate how many teams could finish .500, as well as the future of public pitching analysis. Before we do, though, I’ll remind you all that while anyone can submit a question, this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, be sure to send us an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about John Brebbia’s return to the big leagues, Kyle Schwarber’s four-homer game, the potential for a position-player-pitcher-assisted five-homer game, Heliot Ramos and dingers on extremely slow pitches, an interminable inning, whether the playoff race is over and, if so, whether that’s an indictment of the 12-team format, and the profusion of recently promoted pitchers potentially in line for postseason starts, then (55:50) answer listener emails about season-ending injuries, accounting for player intention in WAR, “rounding home,” giving pitchers tall shoes, making baseball less random, the worst on-field feeling, pitcher aesthetics, and mid-PA pitching changes, plus (1:36:34) follow-ups.

Audio intro: Beatwriter, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Nate Emerson, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to MLBTR on Brebbia
Link to The Onion headline
Link to four-homer-games query
Link to Schwarber’s dingers
Link to article on Suárez game
Link to Ramos homer
Link to slowest HR pitches
Link to Rob Arthur on exit speed
Link to pitch-count tweet
Link to Nats-Yanks game
Link to pitch-count query
Link to Keyser on the playoff race
Link to Sheehan on the playoff race
Link to Baumann on the playoff race
Link to Andrews on the playoff race
Link to the AP on strikeouts
Link to McLean info
Link to Tong info
Link to Tolle info
Link to Baumann on Rodriguez
Link to Marucci email
Link to Seinfeld clip
Link to possessions info
Link to Ben on mid-PA pitching changes
Link to listener emails database
Link to Rounding Home book
Link to Rounding for Home book
Link to Rounding Home movie
Link to “Rounding Home” headline
Link to Berkson’s paradox
Link to Berkson and baseball

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The Rangers really can’t catch a break. Just after I wrote about Nathan Eovaldi’s sneaky great season, the 35-year-old righty briefly took over the official AL ERA lead. Before he could make another start, however, the Rangers announced that Eovaldi would likely miss the remainder of the season due to a rotator cuff strain. As if losing their most effective starting pitcher wasn’t enough, the Rangers also announced on Thursday that Corey Seager, their top hitter, had undergone an appendectomy, putting the rest of his season in doubt.

With his seven-inning, nine-strikeout, one-run effort against the Guardians last Friday, Eovaldi lowered his ERA to 1.73 in 130 innings, exactly enough to qualify based on the Rangers’ 130 games to that point. With that, he snuck ahead of Tarik Skubal (2.32), Hunter Brown (2.36) and Garrett Crochet (2.46) on the AL leaderboard, completing a game of catch-up caused primarily by his missing nearly all of June due to posterior elbow inflammation. Unfortunately, post-start soreness led Eovaldi to shut down his regularly scheduled bullpen session and get an MRI, which revealed a rotator cuff strain.

The 31-year-old Seager has hit .271/.373/.487 for a team-high 136 wRC+; his 21 homers and 3.9 WAR are also tops on the Rangers. He already made two trips to the injured list in April and May for a recurrent right hamstring strain and so has played just 102 games, that after being limited to 123 last year by a sports hernia and 119 in 2023 due to a left hamstring strain and a right thumb sprain. He’s been replaced on the roster by infielder Dylan Moore, who was recently released by the Mariners, but the likely replacement for him in the lineup is superutilityman Josh Smith, who has hit .256/.333/.378 (101 wRC+) while playing every position besides pitcher and catcher. Read the rest of this entry »