2026 ZiPS Projections: Houston Astros

For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Houston Astros.

Batters

For the first time since 2016, the Houston Astros missed the playoffs. Now, it would be a mistake to call the 2025 season a disaster, as they were just barely squeezed out of October baseball by virtue of an awful idea that I hate with every fiber of my being: the tiebreaker. Still, it’s an unhappy milestone for this era’s Astros, especially coming after the departure of two of the team’s key players, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, before Opening Day. The prospect of losing Framber Valdez after the season makes the early elimination feel even worse.

One of the main reasons Houston missed the playoffs is simply that it’s really hard to make up for shedding Tucker and Bregman in a single winter. Add in Yordan Alvarez’s season being ruined due to hand problems, and you’re talking quite a few wins that suddenly went poof! into the aether. As a result, the Astros fell to 12th in position player WAR, the first time they’ve been that low over a full season since 2014. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Prep Baseball – Multiple Openings

Prep Baseball Roles

  • Data Operations Engineer (Full-time)
  • Data Engineering Intern (40 hours, paid)
  • Baseball Analytics Intern (40 hours, paid)

Instructions on how to apply below each role:

About Prep Baseball:
Since its inception in 2005, Prep Baseball has evolved into one of the country’s biggest and most respected independent scouting services, with a singular focus of providing comprehensive year-round coverage in every state we are in. The mission of Prep Baseball is to scout and promote amateur baseball and, ultimately, help athletes achieve their dreams of playing baseball at the next level. With more than 150 scouts, we have the largest baseball scouting infrastructure across all levels of amateur baseball in the country.

Prep Baseball is the No. 1 resource for amateur baseball data in each region we cover. We achieve this by running high-quality events with the best players in each location, supported by our boots-on-the-ground scouting staff and multimedia platforms. Our goal is to become the authoritative voice on the ground level of each region.

The Data Operations team is responsible for ingesting data from trackman radars, blast motion bat sensors, VALD timing gates, as well as building internal and publicly facing data products around amateur baseball showcases and tournaments. The team is also responsible for data quality, data analysis, and data visualizations of baseball data. Through these roles, will impact our future initiatives, app development and data analytics.

This team sits at the intersection of event operations, analytics, and product. The team owns the systems and processes that transform raw, on-field data into trusted datasets used across the organization. This includes ensuring data accuracy at scale, supporting time-sensitive workflows during the season, and enabling long-term player analysis across multiple years and events.


Data Operations Engineer (remote)

About the Role
The Data Operations Engineer is responsible for designing, maintaining, and improving the data pipelines and workflows that power Prep Baseball’s analytics ecosystem. This role focuses on operational reliability, data quality, and scalability in a high-volume, event-driven environment.

Roles & Responsibilities

  • Design, build, and maintain data pipelines that ingest and process data from Prep Baseball events, including radar, sensor, and scouting inputs.
  • Own data quality, accuracy, and reliability for datasets used across internal tools and public-facing products.
  • Develop and maintain data models that support longitudinal player tracking across events, regions, and seasons.
  • Partner with scouting, operations, analytics, and product teams to translate real-world workflows into durable data solutions.
  • Implement data validation, monitoring, and alerting to proactively identify and resolve data issues.
  • Optimize ingestion and transformation workflows to handle high event volume and seasonal spikes.
  • Support near-real-time and post-event data availability to meet operational and analytical needs.
  • Maintain clear documentation and data definitions to ensure datasets are accessible and well-understood.
  • Manage schema changes, historical backfills, and system improvements without disrupting existing workflows.
  • Support the integration of new testing technologies, sensors, and event formats into the data ecosystem.
  • Contribute to long-term planning and evolution of Prep Baseball’s data operations infrastructure.

Qualifications

  • Experience working in a data operations, data engineering, or analytics engineering role.
  • Strong proficiency in SQL and experience working with relational databases.
  • Experience building, maintaining, or supporting data pipelines in a production environment.
  • Hands-on experience working with cloud-based data infrastructure, preferably on AWS.
  • Familiarity with AWS services commonly used in data workflows, such as S3, RDS, Redshift, and Lambda.
  • Experience using AWS Lambda or similar serverless tools to support data ingestion, transformation, or automation tasks.

How to apply. Email mcgowan@prepbaseball.com with the subject your full name – Data Operations Engineer. In the email, please include:

  • Resume
  • Cover Letter
  • Answer the following questions:
    1. What makes you interested in working at Prep Baseball?
    2. How would you design a schema for players and events?
    3. Describe a data system or pipeline you’ve built that you’re most proud of. What problem was it solving, and why does it stand out to you?


Data Operations Intern (Backend Data Engineering)

Prep Baseball | Remote

About the Role

The Data Operations Intern will support the backend data engineering systems that power Prep Baseball’s analytics and data products. This role is focused on building and maintaining data pipelines, improving data reliability, and supporting production workflows in a high-volume, event-driven environment.
This internship is designed for candidates who are interested in backend engineering and data infrastructure, not data science or statistical modeling. Interns will work closely with Data Operations Engineers to gain hands-on experience with real production systems, including cloud-based workflows on AWS. High-performing interns may be considered for future full-time roles within Data Operations.

Roles & Responsibilities

  • Assist with building and maintaining backend data pipelines that ingest and process data from Prep Baseball events.
  • Support data ingestion workflows for radar, sensor, and scouting data collected in live event environments.
  • Help implement data validation, error handling, and basic monitoring to improve pipeline reliability.
  • Assist with maintaining and updating relational databases used by internal tools and public-facing products.
  • Support schema updates, data backfills, and pipeline improvements under guidance from senior engineers.
  • Assist with backend automation tasks using AWS services such as S3 and Lambda.
  • Help test and deploy small updates to cloud-based data workflows.
  • Document data workflows, schemas, and system behavior.
  • Participate in debugging and resolving data pipeline issues alongside Data Operations Engineers.
  • Learn best practices for building reliable backend systems in a cloud environment.

Qualifications

  • Strong interest in backend engineering, data infrastructure, or data engineering.
  • Currently pursuing or recently completed coursework in computer science, software engineering, or a related field.
  • Experience writing code in at least one backend-oriented programming language (e.g., Python, Java, or similar).
  • Familiarity with SQL and relational databases.
  • Basic understanding of how data flows through backend systems (pipelines, batch jobs, APIs).
  • Exposure to cloud concepts or AWS services (coursework, labs, or personal projects is sufficient).
  • Interest in learning how AWS Lambda and other serverless tools are used in production data systems.
  • Comfort working with evolving data structures and imperfect inputs.
  • Ability to communicate clearly and collaborate in a remote team environment.
  • Interest in baseball or sports technology is a plus, but not required.

How to apply. Email mcgowan@prepbaseball.com with the subject your “full name – Backend Engineering Internship”. In the email, please include:

  • Resume
  • Cover Letter
  • Answer the following questions:
    1. What interests you about working at Prep Baseball
    2. What interests you about backend engineering, and how does it differ from data analysis or analytics work in your mind?
    3. When working with data, which type of work do you enjoy more and why:
      • Building systems that move, store, and validate data
      • Or analyzing data to find patterns and insights?


Baseball Analytics Intern (remote)

About the Role
The Analytics Internship will work on applied research and exploratory data projects using real-world amateur baseball data. This role is designed for individuals interested in using data to ask better baseball questions, evaluate performance, and improve how players are measured and understood.
Interns will contribute to research-oriented initiatives while gaining exposure to production data workflows. High-performing interns may be considered for future full-time roles within the Data Operations team.

Roles & Responsibilities

  • Explore and analyze large-scale amateur baseball datasets collected from Prep Baseball events, including performance testing, sensor data, and scouting inputs.
  • Support research and development projects focused on evaluating metrics, testing assumptions, and identifying meaningful performance indicators.
  • Assist in cleaning, validating, and preparing event data for analysis and research use.
  • Perform exploratory data analysis to identify trends, distributions, outliers, and sources of variability across events and regions.
  • Help assess the reliability and consistency of measurements collected in live event environments.
  • Collaborate with Data Operations, media, and scouting stakeholders to frame research questions grounded in applicable scouting and recruiting use cases.
  • Create clear summaries, visualizations, or written explanations of findings.
  • Assist with documentation of metrics, methodologies, and assumptions used in research projects.
  • Contribute to experimentation around new data sources, testing technologies, or evaluation approaches.

Qualifications

  • Strong interest in baseball analytics, data science, or applied research.
  • Currently pursuing or recently completed coursework in statistics, data science, computer science, engineering, or a related field.
  • Experience performing exploratory data analysis on real datasets (coursework, research, or personal projects).
  • Familiarity with statistical concepts such as distributions, variability, correlations, and basic modeling.

How to apply. Email mcgowan@prepbaseball.com with the subject your “full name – Baseball Analytics internship”. In the email, please include:

  • Resume
  • Cover Letter
  • Answer the following questions:
    1. What interests you about working at Prep Baseball, and how do you think data can improve how amateur players are evaluated and supported?
    2. Talk about some trends or interesting research you have seen in the public space that excites you. How would you start exploring it?
    3. What is one baseball question you’ve explored and researched? Describe your approach.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by Prep Baseball.


JAWS and the 2026 Hall of Fame Ballot: Rick Porcello

Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2026 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

2026 BBWAA Candidate: Rick Porcello
Pitcher Career WAR Peak WAR Adj. S-JAWS W-L SO ERA ERA+
Rick Porcello 18.8 18.3 18.6 150-125 1,561 4.40 99
Source: Baseball-Reference

He was a first-round draft pick, and a rotation regular at age 20. By the time he turned 30, he had won both a Cy Young Award and a World Series ring while helping his teams reach the playoffs six times. On the heels of emerging as the best high school pitching prospect in the country, Rick Porcello packed all of that into a 14-season span, with 12 of those seasons spent in the majors with the Tigers, Red Sox, and Mets. He endured a fair share of growing pains and wild performance swings along the way, threw his last pitch at age 31, and didn’t put up numbers that will keep him on the Hall of Fame ballot. But within that comparatively short timespan, Porcello checked a few pretty impressive boxes.

Frederick Alfred Porcello III was born on December 27, 1988 in Morristown, New Jersey, the second of three children of Fred and Patricia Porcello. Fred worked as a civil engineer, founding his own firm in 1994. Baseball was in Rick’s bloodlines, as Patricia’s father Sam Dente spent parts of nine seasons in the majors (1947–55) as an infielder with six American League teams; he had his best season (79 OPS+, 1.2 WAR) with Cleveland’s AL pennant-winning 1954 squad, and played in three games in that World Series. Rick’s older brother Zack pitched for Lehigh University and the New Jersey Institute of Technology, and later became an assistant coach at Seton Hall University, while his younger brother Jake was drafted by the Tigers out of high school in the 48th round in 2009, and pitched at NJIT as well. Read the rest of this entry »


Cubs Land Alex Bregman on Five-Year Deal

James A. Pittman-Imagn Images

It was a big night in Chicago. On Saturday, about an hour before Caleb Williams and the Bears defeated the Packers in the Wild Card round, erasing an 18-point deficit with a fourth-quarter comeback so furious that it earned the rare non-baseball wheeee from Sarah Langs, the Cubs elicited a different kind of dopamine rush. As Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported, Alex Bregman has agreed to a five-year, $175 million contract to play in Wrigley Field. A year after Bregman signed a high-value, prove-it pact with the Red Sox, he’s finally gotten the long-term deal he sought, while the Cubs got a premier player to replace free agent Kyle Tucker. The deal contains no opt-outs and a full no trade clause. It’s the third-largest in franchise history, though on Sunday morning, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that it contains $70 million in deferred money, dropping the average annual value to just over $30 million. Bregman should remain in Wrigley through his age-36 season. It is a huge move, and the likely pièce de résistance for one of the most aggressive offseasons in recent memory for the Cubs.

Just in case you need a refresher on his résumé, Bregman ranked second on our Top 50 Free Agents list this winter, and for good reason. He’s a two-time World Series champion and three-time All-Star who owns a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger, an All-Star Game MVP, and two top-five AL MVP finishes. Since his first full season in 2017, he’s accrued 41.8 WAR, eighth most among all position players. Aside from a partial rookie year and the truncated 2020 campaign, he’s finished below 3.0 WAR just once, in an injury-shortened 2021 season. (Any career recap also has to include at least some mention of Bregman’s role in Houston’s sign-stealing scheme in 2017 and 2018. Bregman would express regret about the scandal, but his initial deflections – “the commissioner made his report, the Astros made their decision, no further comment on it” – rankled fans, and his apologies fell flat with many outside of Houston.)

Bregman is no longer the MVP candidate he was in 2018 and 2019, when he ran a combined 162 wRC+ and put up 16.2 WAR, but he’s been extraordinarily consistent ever since. Not only has he averaged a 124 wRC+ over the past six seasons, he’s kept within 13 points of that mark every single year and he’s combined that offensive excellence with great defense at third. He earned MVP votes as recently as 2023, and he was on pace to pick up some more in 2025 until a quad strain and a late-August slump changed the trajectory of his season; he still managed a .273/.360/.462 line with 18 home runs, a 125 wRC+, and 3.5 WAR in 114 games. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Tampa’s Erik Neander Looks Back at the Randy Arozarena Trade

Not so many years ago, a tongue-in-cheek refrain went like this: “Great trade for the Rays. Who did they get?” With that in mind…

… a few days before the July 30, 2024 deadline, the Tampa Bay Rays dealt Randy Arozarena to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for prospects Brody Hopkins and Aidan Smith. I asked Erik Neander to look back at the transaction when I talked to him during November’s GM Meetings.

“It was a decision that was pretty clear,” Tampa Bay’s president of baseball operations told me. “That deal was about timing. Seattle was getting someone to make an immediate contribution — they’ve gotten that — and from our side it was a deal that was probably going to take years to realize the full potential of.

“With Brody Hopkins, we think the world of the arm talent,” continued Neander. “He was a two-way guy, highly athletic, and he is continuing to make strides and find the command. We believe that he’s someone who can pitch in the middle of a rotation, if not higher. I’m a little surprised that he doesn’t get more attention than he does.”

Hopkins, a 23-year-old right-hander who was taken in the sixth round of the 2023 draft out of Winthrop University, logged a 2.72 ERA, a 3.33 FIP, and a 28.7% strikeout rate over 116 innings with Double-A Montgomery this past season.

Smith, a 21-year-old outfielder who was drafted out of a Lucas, Texas high school the same year, slashed .237/.331/.388 with 14 home runs and a 114 wRC+ over 459 plate appearances — he also swiped 41 bases in 47 attempts — with High-A Bowling Green. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: January 10, 2026

Kevin Sousa-Imagn Images

Exciting news, everyone! In just about a month’s time, pitchers and catchers will be reporting to their respective spring training sites, with the rhythms of the game beginning once again. And with the start of mitts popping and best-shape-of-my-life boasting, the hopes and fears of baseball to come will be renewed.

Until then, we have plenty of things to give us Certified Baseball Sickos our fix. Four of the top five and six of the top 10 players on Ben Clemens’ Top 50 Free Agents rankings remain unsigned, including a trio of former Astros teammates in Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, and Framber Valdez. Also coming soon: the results of the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame election, which will be announced on January 20. As always, Jay Jaffe has been covering the ballot top to bottom with his indispensable series of player profiles.

We’ll talk a little bit of Hall of Fame today, but through the lens of the best pitchers who never received a Hall of Fame vote. Also in this mailbag, Michael Baumann digs into Chandler Simpson, Davy Andrews looks at whether inducing popups is a skill for pitchers, and Dan Szymborski explains which types of players have the widest variance in their ZiPS projections. Before we continue, though, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2425: The Manfred Mantra

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a breakup of baseball lookalikes, minor league free agent draft eligibility, and more players who unretired after becoming coaches, then break down the latest baseball broadcasting developments, Rob Manfred’s recent comments (about his priorities and future, an offseason signing deadline, and regular-season structure), Tarik Skubal’s historic arbitration case, and, inspired by sensational hockey streaming series Heated Rivalry (which they discuss without spoilers), when an active MLB player might publicly come out.

Audio intro: Benny and a Million Shetland Ponies, “Effectively Wild Theme (Horny)
Audio outro: Beatwriter, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to MLBTR on Fitzgerald
Link to Sojo article
Link to Campbell hiring
Link to TV network news
Link to MLBTR on TV networks
Link to TV network news 2
Link to Entertainment Strategy Guy
Link to streaming revenue info
Link to more on streaming revenue
Link to Manfred on a signing deadline
Link to Rooker tweet
Link to Harper sales article 1
Link to Harper sales article 2
Link to Manfred’s tournament comments
Link to MLBTR on Skubal
Link to The Athletic on Skubal
Link to Passan on Skubal
Link to Ben on arbitration
Link to MLBTR on Kepler
Link to Heated Rivalry
Link to hockey culture article
Link to Outsports article
Link to Take Me Out wiki
Link to EW Episode 1776
Link to Unwritten Rules
Link to Manfred’s diversity comments
Link to Venezuela article

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JAWS and the 2026 Hall of Fame Ballot: Matt Kemp

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2026 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

2026 BBWAA Candidate: Matt Kemp
Player Pos Career WAR Peak WAR JAWS H HR SB AVG/OBP/SLG OPS+
Matt Kemp CF 21.6 23.6 22.6 1,808 287 184 .284/.337/.484 121
Source: Baseball-Reference

From being called out publicly by his general manager, manager, and third base coach during an historically wretched season one year, to being robbed of an MVP award after falling just short of a 40-homer, 40-steal campaign the next, Matt Kemp was an enigma. Because he focused more on basketball than baseball growing up, his instincts for the sport sometimes lagged behind his physical abilities, but at his best, he was a superstar, and a sight to behold thanks to his speed and power — a combination of traits that earned him the nickname “The Bison.” He made three All-Star teams and won two Gold Gloves (despite subpar metrics), but unfortunately, a series of injuries to his shoulders and legs compromised those abilities. The $160 million contract he signed after that near-MVP 2011 season became a millstone that sent him from team to team during its eight-year run. Read the rest of this entry »


Let’s Look at a Few More Graphs About Hitter and Pitcher Ages

Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

Earlier this week, I looked into the curious case of Benjamin Button. Er, no, that’s not right. I looked into the fact that the average age of big league hitters keeps declining, like Button, while pitchers haven’t followed suit. There are any number of possible explanations for that pattern, and if the mystery appeals to you, I highly suggest reading the comments of that article, where our excellent readers have advanced a number of solid theories. I think there’s plenty of meat left on the bone in figuring out what’s causing this trend, but I won’t be delving into that (much) today. Instead, I made like Woodward and Bernstein and followed the money.

Age is a decent proxy for service time; older players have generally, though not alway, been in the league longer than younger players. Similarly, service time is a decent proxy for salary; players who have been in the league longer generally make more money than newcomers, for a variety of reasons. So is our data really just saying pitcher salaries are going up? Well, kind of.

I took salaries for all major league players starting in 2019, discarding the abbreviated 2020 season. I split them up by type – pitchers in one bucket, hitters in another, and Shohei Ohtani in both. Total pitcher and hitter salaries have both gone up – passage of time, inflation, and so on. But after a huge increase heading into 2022, when seven different hitters signed nine-figure contracts, the total outlay to hitters has leveled off. Meanwhile, pitching salaries are catching up:

As an aside, I only pulled data through 2019 because it’s outrageously difficult to get complete salary data. If you’re looking for Opening Day annualized salaries, sure, those are reported. If you’re looking for free agency contracts, again, pretty easy to find. There are no disputes about what Freddie Freeman’s salary was in 2025; it’s public record. But what about Freeman’s former teammate Justin Dean, who racked up 52 days of service time in his debut season? What about split contracts? Late debuts? Up-and-down types? I worked out a method for what I consider a very good approximation of those salaries, but I don’t feel confident going back before the start of RosterResource’s database, which begins in 2019. Even then, this is approximate, though as I mentioned, I’m confident that it’s a good approximation. Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 1/9/26

12:12
Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy ho from a brisk and refreshing Tempe, Arizona, where I’ll be able to see baseball in person a week from today.

12:12
Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks for joining me for the first chat of the calendar year. If you’re new, we talk about prospects in this space for about an hour on Fridays.

12:13
Scotty: Happy Friday, Eric. How often in your analysis do you use comps to shape your thoughts about players? I was thinking about who is a starter comp for Jaxon Wiggins and I was coming up with a blank.

12:15
Eric A Longenhagen: If I go looking for a comp it’s usually via the shape of a player’s data. Like, “Alfonsin Rosario’s contact rate is X% and his measured power is Y, what big leaguers have a similar contact rate and measured power, etc. and what did they perform like in the bigs…

12:15
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s more about understanding viable MLB baselines than going looking for a comp player to player

12:16
Eric A Longenhagen: And then sometimes you’re just watching a guy and think, “This guy looks like Jon Garland” or whatever

Read the rest of this entry »