Archive for Prospects

A Fresh Look at the Prospects in the Mets-Mariners Trade

As of Saturday evening, the Mariners-Mets deal that will send Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to Queens and a bevy of players to Seattle appears to be done, pending physicals. The trade is expected to be officially announced Monday, but the pieces are known. Below are scouting reports on the trio of prospects acquired by the Mariners, as well as thoughts on the new state of the Mariners system and their desired competitive timeline.

Jarred Kelenic, CF

Kelenic was ranked eighth on our 2018 pre-draft rankings, and 86th when we last updated our overall rankings. He (or Cardinals first rounder Nolan Gorman) was generally viewed as the top high school hitter available in the draft, and he was the first one taken at sixth overall.

Advanced bats don’t typically come out of Wisconsin, but Kelenic hit consistently throughout high school against the best pitchers in his peer group. Teams leaned heavily on their summer showcase looks at Kelenic because during the spring, he didn’t play high school baseball. Instead, he played for a travel ball team called Hitters, which played weekend double headers in Kenosha and Cedar Rapids against uneven competition.

Kelenic is a stocky, physically mature 19-year-old. He currently runs well enough and has sufficient instincts for center field, but it’s possible that he’s a better fit in a corner at some point, perhaps even in his early twenties. Even if he moves to a corner, he has enough hit/power to play every day, but Kelenic would probably have to develop a plus-plus bat to be a star away from center. Because his track record of hitting is so strong and he’s so technically proficient, he was considered one of the higher-probability bats from the 2018 class, though he also likely also comes with a narrower, relatively modest band of potential outcomes. He’s advanced enough in skill and age to begin 2019 in the South Atlantic League.

Justin Dunn, RHP

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Yan Gomes Heads to D.C. for Tooled-up Outfield Prospect

The Cleveland Indians acquired a player with one of the nuttier tool profiles in the minors yesterday in the following trade:

Cleveland gets:
Daniel Johnson, OF
Jefry Rodriguez, RHP
Player to be Named Later

Washington gets:
Yan Gomes, C

Gomes will have an immediate big league impact as part of a Nationals catching tandem with the newly acquired Kurt Suzuki. The 31-year-old Brazilian backstop hit .266/.313/.449 in 2018, showing a dramatic uptick in power compared to career norms. Our projection systems at FanGraphs anticipate a SLG% regression back to a mark just shy of league-average, but Gomes’ Hard Hit% was way up based on our data, and sites like xStats, which calculate expected offensive output based on ball-in-play metrics like exit velocity and launch angle, indicate Gomes’ 2018 power display may be sustainable.

Gomes can also control the running game. He has a plus-plus arm and routinely posts pop times close to 1.90 seconds. He’s also an above-average receiver. Once constantly injured (knee sprain, concussion, separated shoulder from ’14-’16), Gomes has caught 100 games each of the last two years.

Both Gomes and Suzuki are of advanced age and are likely to share time. Washington’s catching looks to be in good shape for the next two years (the life of Suzuki’s deal), especially given the state of the position, league-wide. Gomes has one year remaining on his contract and then a $9 million team option in 2020 and an $11 million team option in 2021.

The Nationals now have a bit of a catching clog on their 40-man, which also houses 25-year-olds Pedro Severino, Raudy Read and 27-year-old Spencer Kieboom. Read has the most offensive talent of that group and hit for power at Double-A last year, but he’s also coming off a PED suspension and is a below-average defender– he’s a below-average receiving, and his plus raw arm strength also comes with accuracy issues. He’s currently playing in the Dominican Winter League for Toros del Este. This depth means a minor trade or other roster move could be on the horizon.

For Cleveland, 23-year-old outfielder Daniel Johnson has one of the louder tool profiles in the minor leagues. He has elite arm strength, plus-plus speed and plus raw power. He’s so gifted, physically, that he’s very likely to have some kind of big league career, though how impactful that career is will be dictated by the development of bat-to-ball skills that are currently behind what is typical for a 23-year-old prospect at Double-A.

Johnson has been so raw for the duration of his scoutable career that he went undrafted as a junior college freshman in 2014. He transferred to New Mexico State and was still so unpolished as a junior hitter that some area scouts wanted to see him on the mound. He had a breakout junior season .382/.434/.630 in a hitter-friendly conference and was drafted in the 5th round.

Johnson spent all of 2018, his second full pro season, at Double-A Harrisburg where he hit .267/.321/.410 with 21 steals in 25 attempts. His ball/strike recognition and ability to make contact are both below average, but neither is so bad that it might inhibit him from playing a big league role in the next year or two. He sees right-handed pitching well-enough that he can do damage against it, and he has a chance to occupy the larger part of an outfield platoon if he keeps mashing righties the way he has in the minors. His speed would indicate center field is an option, but again Johnson’s lack of feel and instincts cause his physical abilities to play down and he may be better off in a corner, especially with superior defenders like Brad Zimmer and Leonys Martin currently on the Cleveland roster.

Tapping into Johnson’s raw power in games will probably require a swing change that cleans up Johnson’s odd, hooking bat path. If that happens, then a 45 FV projection, which is what we had on Johnson entering the offseason, will be too light. Cleveland has had mixed success changing swings in the past (some recent examples: Yandy Diaz and Erik Gonzalez showed no improvement despite their obvious planar issues, but Frankie Lindor adjusted with ease and exploded) so this could go either way.

Cleveland has already done a lot to fill in their roster after the departure of some of their outfielders and it appears as though they’re going to take a platoon-heavy approach there next year. The recent acquisitions of right-handed hitters Oscar Mercado and Jordan Luplow seem to fit well with some of the left-handed hitting options already on the big league roster, which Johnson is now in place to sustain after the 2019 season when Leonys Martin’s deal is up and Jason Kipnis has a looming $16.5 million team option.

Rodriguez is a 25-year-old who threw 52 big league innings in 2018. He throws hard and will touch 99, sitting comfortably in the 93-96 range even as a starter. He’ll show you an above-average curveball and his changeup has sinking action at times, but Rodriguez’s stiff delivery is hard to repeat and he has scattered fastball control and throws lots of non-competitive changeups. He profiles as a two-pitch reliever.


Eric Longenhagen Chat-11/29/18

2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Good afternoon from cloudy Tempe.

2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s begin this week’s chat, which I’m totally 100% focused on and not at all distracted from by current trade rumors.

2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Oh, hey! Brewers list came out today.

2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Pirates were Monday, if you missed it

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Top 32 Prospects: Milwaukee Brewers

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Milwaukee Brewers. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Brewers Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Keston Hiura 22.4 AA 2B 2019 60
2 Tristen Lutz 20.4 A RF 2022 50
3 Corey Ray 24.3 AA CF 2019 50
4 Brice Turang 19.1 R SS 2022 45
5 Mauricio Dubon 24.5 AAA SS 2019 45
6 Zack Brown 24.1 AA RHP 2019 45
7 Mario Feliciano 20.1 A+ C 2022 40+
8 Eduardo Garcia 16.0 None SS 2024 40
9 Aaron Ashby 20.6 A LHP 2022 40
10 Joe Gray 18.8 R CF 2023 40
11 Payton Henry 21.5 A C 2022 40
12 Troy Stokes Jr. 22.9 AA LF 2019 40
13 Braden Webb 23.7 AA RHP 2020 40
14 Trent Grisham 22.2 AA OF 2020 40
15 Lucas Erceg 23.7 AAA 3B 2020 40
16 Pablo Abreu 19.2 R OF 2023 40
17 Trey Supak 22.6 AA RHP 2019 40
18 Marcos Diplan 22.3 AA RHP 2019 40
19 Bobby Wahl 26.8 MLB RHP 2019 40
20 Carlos Rodriguez 18.1 R CF 2022 40
21 Micah Bello 18.5 R CF 2022 40
22 Larry Ernesto 18.3 R RF 2024 40
23 Adam Hill 21.8 A- RHP 2021 40
24 Korry Howell 20.3 R CF 2022 40
25 Clayton Andrews 22.0 A LHP 2021 40
26 Lun Zhao 17.4 R RHP 2024 40
27 Tyrone Taylor 25.0 AAA OF 2019 40
28 Adrian Houser 25.9 MLB RHP 2019 40
29 Eduarqui Fernandez 16.6 None CF 2023 35+
30 Antonio Pinero 19.8 R SS 2022 35+
31 Yeison Coca 19.6 R 2B 2022 35+
32 Daniel Castillo 17.9 R SS 2024 35+
33 Je’Von Ward 19.2 R RF 2023 35+
34 Caden Lemons 20.1 R RHP 2022 35+

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from UC Irvine (MIL)
Age 22.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/60 60/60 45/60 45/45 45/50 45/45

Hiura reached Double-A in his first full pro season, and then was clearly one of the top five or six talents in the Arizona Fall League, where he won League MVP. Most importanly, his arm strength is once again viable at second base. An elbow injury relegated Hiura to DH-only duty as a junior at UC Irvine, and he may have gone even earlier in the 2017 draft if not for concerns about the injury and how it might limit his defense. That’s no longer a concern, as Hiura has an average arm and plays an unspectacular second base. This is an incredible hitter. He has lightning-quick hands that square up premium velocity and possesses a rare blend of power and bat control. Hiura’s footowork in the box is a little noiser than it has to be, and if any of his swing’s elements are ill-timed, it can throw off the rest of his cut. This, combined with an aggressive style of hitting, could cause him to be streaky. But ultimately he’s an exceptional hitting talent and he’s going to play a premium defensive position. We think he’s an All-Star second baseman.

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Martin HS (TX) (MIL)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 70/70 40/60 50/45 40/45 60/60

Lutz’s 2018 foray into full-season ball (.272/.348/.477 in May, June and July) was bookended by two awful months (he hit .180 in April, .215 in August) resulting in a .245/.321/.421 line. Already at physical maturity, Lutz’s huge power is the foundation of his profile. He’s capable of hitting long home runs to left and center, and he has the raw strength to drive out mis-hit balls the opposite way. Everything else he does is average. Adept at identifying breaking balls in mid air, Lutz’s moderate swing-and-miss issues stem from his mediocre bat control. This might limit his game power output, but the issues aren’t so bad that we’re worried about Lutz not hitting entirely. He has below-average range and instincts in right field, but his arm is plus. Lutz will likely start next season, age-20, at Hi-A. He projects as a middle-of-the-order power bat who provides little value on defense.

3. Corey Ray, CF
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Louisville (MIL)
Age 24.3 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 60/60 45/50 70/70 40/45 40/40

Despite his notable 2018 statistical output — 66 extra base hits, including 27 home runs, and 37 steals on 44 attempts at Double-A Biloxi — we’re still somewhat apprehensive about Ray and have him graded out exactly as we did last offseason, when he was coming off a terrible statistical campaign. Ray, long lauded for his makeup, made some adjustments to remedy the timing issues that plagued him in 2017. His front hip is clearing earlier, enabling him to catch some of the inside pitches that were tying him up last year. This has seemed to improve the quality of Ray’s contact, but it hasn’t remedied his strikeout issues. Ray struck out in 29.3% of his 2018 plate appearances and had a 17.5% swinging strike rate, the latter of which would rank as the 15th most frequent SwStr% in the majors last year. Ray swings through pitches in the zone fairly frequently and despite his prodigious physical abilities, his offensive profile feels unstable. His up-the-middle defensive profile gives him some wiggle room on offense, but he’s not a very instinctive defender and is closer to average in center field than one might expect given his speed. Players can succeed despite heavy strikeouts; Chris Taylor’s skillset looks an awful lot like Ray’s (power, strikeouts, and a pedestrian defense at a premium position) and Taylor was a 3 WAR player last year. Ray’s peak could look like that. He’s also similar to players like Franchy Cordero, Brad Zimmer, late-career Colby Rasmus, and an even longer list of hitters who also have lean years when they don’t hit and produce closer to replacement level. We expect peaks and valleys over the course of a long career from Ray.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Santiago HS (CA) (MIL)
Age 19.1 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 50/50 20/45 60/60 50/60 55/55

Even as an underclassman playing alongside rising seniors like Nick Allen, Hunter Greene, Nick Pratto and Royce Lewis, Turang did not look out of place. In addition to his a balletic defensive abilities, he was also a polished hitter who had advanced strike-zone feel. Turang struck out just once as a high scool junior and entered his final showcase summer at the top of his high school draft class. Then, he stopped hitting. After looking sluggish during the summer and fall, Turang’s placement among the first round candidates changed. He fell to the back half of the first round and signed for $3.4 million, roughly $400,000 over slot. After signing, Turang looked so much more advanced than the rest of the AZL that he was pushed, after just two weeks, to the Pioneer League. Throughout the summer and fall, he ran deep counts and walked a lot, but made little impact contact. He’s shown average raw power in BP, so perhaps he’ll eventually have the developmental option of sacrificing contact to get to it. As long as some aspect of his offense develops, especially as it seems likely to be paired with a great idea of the strike zone and plus shortstop defense, Turang should be an above-average regular.

Drafted: 26th Round, 2013 from Capital Christian HS (CA) (BOS)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
55/60 40/40 30/35 55/55 45/50 55/55

If not for suffering a left ACL tear during a rundown in early May, Dubon, who had a 23-game hit streak at the time, probably would have debuted in 2018 due to Milwaukee’s middle infield woes. Instead, Dubson missed much of the season and is on track for a likely 2019 debut. He’ll be the first native Honduran to play in the majors. Dubon was acquired (along with Travis Shaw) as part of a lopsided package for Tyler Thornburg. His elite hand-eye coordination and bat control drive a contact-oriented offensive profile. Since coming over from Boston, Dubon has thickened his once frail-looking frame and improved upon some of the things that limited his in-game power. He was rotating better early in 2018, with the timing of his hip/hand spearation being better, too, and he was no longer ditching his leg kick with two strikes. His 2016 Portland and 2017-2018 Colorado Springs slugging outputs are probably cariacatures of his true talent level, but Dubon should at least have doubles power. Defensively, Dubon is passable at shortstop and second base. He saw time in center field during the 2016 Fall League but hasn’t played there since. Lots of scouts like him as a super utility type, but Dubon will be 25 in July and he hasn’t played anywhere other than the middle infield at any point in his career, save for that Fall League. It’s more likely he gets a chance to be Milwaukee’s everyday shortstop in 2019 and, provided he hasn’t lost a step due to the ACL tear, we like him as a low-end regular there.

6. Zack Brown, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from Kentucky (MIL)
Age 24.1 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 45/50 45/50 91-94 / 95

The Brewers 2018 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Brown has now performed at every level up through Double-A. Trepidation regarding his ability to start stems from Brown’s wonky, violent delivery. But he’s never had issues filling up the strike zone, has a pitch mix sufficient for navigating lineups several times, and hasn’t had an arm injury, with his lone pro DL stint was due to an ankle injury caused by a comebacker. He’s likely on a path similar to Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta, where he’ll initially debut as a multi-inning reliever, but a fine three-pitch mix means Brown could eventually transition into a starting role, profiling as a #4/5.

40+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Beltran Academy HS (PR) (MIL)
Age 20.1 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/55 50/55 30/45 40/30 30/45 55/55

Feliciano had a totally lost 2018 due to various nagging injuries. He was limited to just 42 games at Hi-A, and two in the Fall League. While at Hi-A Carolina, he struck out in 36% of his plate appearances. Feliciano also has one of the higher ceilings in this system. He turned 20 shortly before this list went to press, so his inabiltiy to perform as an 18-year-old in full-season ball in 2017 and a 19-year-old at Hi-A in 2018 is less troublesome due to his age. When healthy, Feliciano has shown bat control and above-average power on contact. If he can develop defensively (a process which has, thus far, been slow due to the reps lost to injury), Feliciano will be a catcher with a complete offensive profile, and a potential star. Teenage catching prospects are notoriously volatile and often, a decline in physical tools and/or stagnant defensive development starts with chronic injury. Feliciano’s 2018 is what the start of past catching bust narravites look like. This is a very talented, volatile prospect who could be at or near the top of this list next year or be off it in two.

40 FV Prospects

8. Eduardo Garcia, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Venezuela (MIL)
Age 16.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 30/50 20/50 45/50 40/60 50/60

Signed for $1.1 million in mid-July, Garcia had an eye-opening instructional league. His range, hands, actions and arm are all easy fits at shortstop, and he could be a plus glove there at peak. His entire offensive profile depends on his frame filling out. Garcia’s lack of strength is evident with the bat in his hands, but you can go kind of nuts projecting on much of his skillset, including the speed and arm strength, because Garcia so clearly has lots of physical growth on the horizon and is an above-average athlete. He’s so young that he wasn’t even eligible to sign on July 2nd because he was still 15. Were he a domestic high schooler, he wouldn’t be draft eligible until 2020, when he’d be just shy of 18. His development may initially be slow, but he has significant literal and figurative growth potential and a non-zero shot to be a well-rounded shortstop at peak.

9. Aaron Ashby, LHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from Crowder JC (MO) (MIL)
Age 20.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 55/60 45/50 40/50 90-94 / 95

It became clear during instructional league in Arizona that we were low on Ashby before the draft. Despite his clear issues– he has below average command caused by an arm slot that makes it hard for him to work in all parts of the zone–Ashby has nasty, left-handed stuff. He was up to 94 this fall, and the pitch has flat plane and lives in the top part of the zone, where it sneaks past barrels. Ashby’s two breaking balls need better demarcation, but they each flash plus and his changeup flashes average. He turns 21 in May, and should carve up the lower levels of the minor leagues with his stuff alone. His ability to locate and effectively mix his pitches will dictate his ultimate role and how fast he moves. For now, Ashby fairly conservatively projects in a multi-inning relief role.

10. Joe Gray, CF
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Hattiesburg HS (MS) (MIL)
Age 18.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 50/60 30/50 55/50 45/50 60/60

On the surface, Gray looks like a pretty standard right field prospect. He’s a projetable 6-foot-3, has present power and might grow into more, and he has some swing and miss issues due to poor breaking ball recognition. But upon extended viewing, Gray’s feel for center field is advanced and he has a better chance to stay there than is typical for a prospect his size. Gray has had strikeout issues in the AZL (he missed AZL time with a respiratory issue, not an injury), during fall instructional league and against good high school pitching. We’re skeptical of his ability to make sufficient contact but if he does, he’ll be a power-hitting center fielder.

Drafted: 6th Round, 2016 from Pleasant Grove HS (UT) (MIL)
Age 21.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 60/60 20/45 30/30 40/50 55/55

A bat-first high school catcher who was considered a long shot to stay behind the plate, Henry has made sufficient developmental progress as a defender and now projects to stay back there. Always in possession of a strong throwing arm, his once thick frame is now learner and more agile, enabling him to better handle the athletic burdens of catching. He also has huge raw power that he doesn’t often get to in games because Henry’s bat path causes him to drive the ball into the ground at a 50% clip and he’s also prone to swing and miss. Now that Henry’s defensive future is more in focus, he may just be a swing tweak away from a statistical breakout.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2014 from Calvert Hall HS (MD) (MIL)
Age 22.9 Height 5′ 8″ Weight 182 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 55/55 45/50 55/55 50/55 30/30

Stokes is Diet Khris Davis. He’s limited to LF/DH duties because of nearly unplayable arm strength, and he’s able to hit for in-game power despite blatant swing-and-miss issues due to his ability to consistently hit the ball in the air. Stokes’ extreme, pull-only approach to contact makes him vulnerable to breaking stuff down and away from him, and he is going to swing and miss at an above-average clip. But he’s also adept at identifying balls and strikes. There is some precedent for this type of offensive profile (low batting average, above-average OBP, and power) working in left field. It looks like Kyle Schwarber–though Stokes doesn’t have that kind of raw pop–or late-career Curtis Granderson. Stokes runs well enough that he could be an above-average defender in left field but he might also give back significant value there becauase of his throwing issues. He’s an odd one who we think fits as the smaller half of a corner outfield platoon and pinch runner.

13. Braden Webb, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from South Carolina (MIL)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 60/60 50/55 40/45 92-95 / 98

Webb was a rare, draft-eligible freshman because he had Tommy John as a senior in high school, then missed all of what would have been his freshman year at South Carolina while he recovered. He was a 21-year-old redshirt freshman when he was drafted in 2016. Webb’s measurables don’t properly capture his size; his broad shoulders mimic the shape and proportions of a generic minor league batter’s eye. He has a mid-90s fastball and upper-70s curveball that pair well together, as the latter has sharp, vertical action and bat-missing depth. Webb continued to log innings as a starter up through Double-A, but he likely projects in relief. His changeup has improved and he was healthy throughout 2018, though his fastball control remains below-average. But the stuff is nasty enough that Webb could be a high-leverage or multi-inning reliever, especially if his fastball ticks up in a single, max-effort inning.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Richland HS (TX) (MIL)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 50/50 30/40 50/50 45/50 45/45

The amateur side of scouting considered Grisham to be perhaps the most advanced high school hitter in the 2015 draft. Cut to 2018 and Grisham is a career .238 hitter. The low batting averages he has posted have been due less to his inability to put the bat on the ball and more to an approach that is passive in excess. Grisham watches a lot of driveable pitches go by. That approach is also part of why he’s never run a season walk rate beneath 14%, and Grisham’s ability to reach base is part of why he’s still such an interesting prospect. There has also been an approach change here, one that may have impacted his plate coverage. In two years, he has transitioned from an all-fields doubles doubles approach to a pull-oriented hitter. In the 2018 Fall League he was fouling off pitches that he used to slice for doubles the opposite way. Still only 22, Grisham has physical talent (he once projected, for us, as an average regular) that may resurface with some approach changes, but this current iteration probably isn’t a big leaguer.

15. Lucas Erceg, 3B
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Menlo College (MIL)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 55/55 40/45 50/45 45/50 70/70

After initially looking like he was an egregious underdraft immediatley following his 2016 matriculation from Menlo, Erceg has been frustrating and enigmatic. The only constant has been his 70-grade arm. He’s nearly 24 now and some of our sources, no longer enamored with his bat, are ready to see him on the mound. (Erceg pitched in college at Cal and then, after he transferred, closed at Menlo.) When Erceg is going at the plate, he’s dropping the bat head and golfing out pitches down and in, or flaying pitches away from him down the third base line for a double. But as his career has drawn on, his swing is often ill-timed and its components don’t seem to be cohesive. He’s also not extending through contact as dramatically as he was in college. Whatever the reasons for Erceg’s struggles, he has hit. He has made progress as an infield defender, but he has to hit some to profile. He’ll be 24 in May.

16. Pablo Abreu, OF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (MIL)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 50/55 30/50 55/50 45/50 55/55

Abreu’s combination of instincts and speed give him a fair chance to stay in center field, but he’s not a lock to remain there. He has above-average bat speed but his ultra-conservative lower half usage hampers his in-game power production. He might suddenly start hitting for more game power with a small change in that regard. Though just 19, Abreu has already added a lot of good weight since signing. His frame already looks maxed out, so there’s not a whole lot of raw power projection left here, and if there is, it’ll come at the cost of Abreu moving to an outfield corner.

17. Trey Supak, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from La Grange HS (TX) (PIT)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/55 50/55 45/50 50/55 89-93 / 94

Supak owns a career 3.43 ERA and has now reached Double-A. He has an average four-pitch mix that works because he has above-average command, and because his fastball, which lives in the top part of the zone, has flat, tough-to-catch plane. When Supak misses his spot it’s often in a place where he can’t get hurt, essential because neither of his breaking balls–a relatively new curveball and a slider/cutter that we have labeled as a cutter, since we think it’s best suited for use like a cutter–is nasty enough to live in the strike zone and instead are best when buried beneath it, or garnering awkward swings at floaters above the zone. He’s a near-ready back-end starter.

18. Marcos Diplan, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (TEX)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 55/60 40/45 89-93 / 97

Diplan’s body and control have each backpeddaled since his electric 2016 season. His fastball velocity is also less consistent now than it was at that time; he’ll bump 97 at times but sit 89-93 at others. He walked a whopping 74 hitters in 118 innings last year, but still has tantalizing stuff. His changeup is plus, his slider flashes plus when he finishes it properly and sometimes, the velo is there. When Diplan is right he looks like a nasty, multi-inning reliever, but the arrow is pointing down.

19. Bobby Wahl, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2013 from Ole Miss (OAK)
Age 26.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 60/60 40/40 50/50 40/40 94-96 / 99

Wahl, who turns 27 in March, was part of the two-player package Oakland sent to the Mets for Jeurys Familia last summer. He has just twelve career big league innings at this age mostly because Wahl missed extended development time due to multiple surgeries, including one in 2017 to remedy Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. His stuff was back last year. Wahl’s fastball sits in the mid-90s and will touch 99. He has a four-pitch mix but works primarily with the fastball and a power, mid-80s breaking ball that has bat-missing vertical action. A firm cutter and changeup are also folded in on occasion. Wahl has set-up man stuff but below average command and more significant injury risk than most pitching prospects.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (MIL)
Age 18.1 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 150 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 30/40 20/20 70/70 45/60 50/50

Rodriguez is a plus-plus-running center field prospect with a slash-and-dash approach at the plate. He is currently unable to turn on pitches and do any real offensive damage, but his defensive profile, speed, and hand-eye coordination make him an interesting follow. Barring a swing change that enables him to turn on more pitches, he projects as a fourth outfielder, but at age 18, there’s lots of time for that adjustment. There’s a pretty rare skillset at the core of Rodriguez’s profile.

21. Micah Bello, CF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Hilo HS (HI) (MIL)
Age 18.5 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 40/45 20/30 50/50 45/55 55/55

Bello signed for an under slot $550,000 as a second rounder. He’s a polished, contact-oriented center field prospect without typical big league physicality. He has several tweener traits, and might end up as a bench or platoon outfielder. A path toward everyday reps involves Bello developing a plus bat or glove, which are both in the realm of possibility as he has great breaking ball recognition and bat control, and good instincts in center field. He is one of several Hawaiian players drafted by Milwaukee since 2014 (Kodi Medeiros, Jordan Yamamoto, KJ Harrison, Kekai Rios).

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (MIL)
Age 18.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 50/55 20/50 50/50 45/50 50/50

Ernesto got $1.8 million in 2017. His profile hasn’t changed at all since he was written up last year. He’s a switch-hitter with surprising pop for his age and build, but neither swing is dialed in quite yet. He runs well-enough to give center field a try for a while, but will probably move to a corner at physical maturity. He’s a well-rounded physical talent with little present feel to hit.

23. Adam Hill, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from South Carolina (NYM)
Age 21.8 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 50/55 50/55 40/45 90-94 / 95

The Brewers also acquired Adam Hill, the Mets 2018 4th round pick out of the University of South Carolina. Hill was dominant during the first four starts of his junior year, but his control disappeared once the Gamecocks began conference play. He struggled to throw strikes for two months leading up to the draft and fell to the fourth round. Hill does have good stuff. He’ll sit 90-94 and his big, 6-foot-6 frame and lower arm slot combine to create a unique look for hitters. His slider breaks late and has good length when located to Hill’s arm side, and Hill’s changeup has good action because of his lower arm slot. His limited command probably relegates Hill to the bullpen eventually, but he has #4/5 starter stuff if he can develop better control in his mid-20s, which sometimes happens to pitchers this size.

Drafted: 12th Round, 2018 from Kirkwood JC (IA) (MIL)
Age 20.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 40/45 20/30 70/70 40/45 40/45

Howell was a pleasant, toolsy, post-draft surprise whose combination of speed and crude bat control was too much for AZL defenses to deal with. A JUCO draftee would only turned 20 in September, Howell has some catalytic offensive qualities and a chance to play somewhere favorable on defense. He saw time at shortstop and third base during the summer and fall, but Eric and several scouts think he ends up in center field. Physical development will play a sizeable role in Howell’s future, especially as far as his bat is concerned. He will be the age of a college sophomore in 2019.

Drafted: 17th Round, 2018 from Long Beach State (MIL)
Age 22.0 Height 5′ 6″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/45 55/60 55/60 45/50 86-88 / 90

Andrews is weird. He’s just 5-foot-6 and throws in the upper-80s but he has two really excellent secondary pitches in his curveball and changeup. He played two ways at Long Beach State and performed well (54 K’s, 7 BB’s in 33 pro innings) after signing. We don’t know what he is but we think it’s something.

26. Lun Zhao, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from China (MIL)
Age 17.4 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 150 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/50 55/70 30/45 30/45 90-92 / 93

Zhao is one of very few Chinese players in pro ball–we know of two others: Itchy Xu (BAL) and Hai-Cheng Gong (PIT)–and is the most talented. The 17-year-old broke off some ferocious curveballs during instructional league that elicited verbal expletives from onlooking scouts. His fastball control is very raw. Right now, Zhao is just a very young developmental project who can really spin it.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2012 from Torrance HS (CA) (MIL)
Age 25.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/50 45/45 40/45 55/55 55/55 50/50

Taylor’s performance tapered off in 2014 and he spent several years slugging about .330, then spent much of 2017 injured. He had a statistical breakout at Triple-A in 2018 that could be attributed to the hitting environment at Colorado Springs, but Taylor has made significant changes to his swing and the uptick in power could be a PCL cariacature of real, meaningful change. Once a wide-based, no-stride swinger, Taylor now has a big leg kick and his batted ball profile has changed dramatically between 2016 (the last, reliably large sample we had) and now. He was added to the 40-man this offseason and is a sleeper breakout candidate.

28. Adrian Houser, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2011 from Locust Grove HS (OK) (HOU)
Age 25.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 45/45 55/55 45/45 93-96 / 97

Houser finally made it back to the majors in 2018 after missing significant time due to Tommy John. During that time, he remade his body into a lean, more flexible vessel and his velo was up a bit; instead of 92-95, he was sitting at 94-95 last year. His curveball didn’t have good finish during his brief big league time but it has been average and flashing above in the past. His changeup is now clearly his best secondary offering. Houser’s fastball plays down a bit due to lack of movement and it’d be nice to see the breaking ball bounce back, but for now he projects as a middle reliever.

35+ FV Prospects

29. Eduarqui Fernandez, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican (MIL)
Age 16.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

A $1.1 million signe from July, Fernandez is a R/R corner outfield projection bat with present feel to hit. He’s already quite a bit more physical now than he was as an amateur, so the rest of the power might come pretty quickly.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (BOS)
Age 19.8 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+

Pinero was originally with Boston but was granted free agency as part of their 2016 international bonus bundling scandal. He’s a plus defensive shortstop–he has elite hands, but his range and athleticism are suspect–with very little bat. Pinero has a lanky frame, but he’s a slow-twitch hitter with below average bat speed and he won’t necessarily grow into offensive impact. His likely range of positive outcoms spans from glove-first bench infielder to low-end regular.

31. Yeison Coca, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (BOS)
Age 19.6 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+

Coca is an average middle infield defender with below-average offensive tools. If those grow to average, he could sneak up on us and be an everyday player. If they continue to hang in the 40/45 area, Coca will be a utility option.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (MIL)
Age 17.9 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 150 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Castillo signed for $140,000 in 2017. His swing has a good foundation, he’s an athletic middle infield defender, and his frame has some room for mass as he matures. He had a good fall instructional league showing.

Drafted: 12th Round, 2017 from Gahr HS (CA) (MIL)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+

Long a notable amateur prospect due to his projectable, wide receiverish frame, Ward has made significant mechanical progress and is already much more of a refined baseball player than he was a senior in high school. He’s still mostly a lottery ticket frame who you’re hoping grows into big power, but now his underlying skills have started to develop.

34. Caden Lemons, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Vestavia Hills HS (AL) (MIL)
Age 20.1 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Lemons was up to 96 in high school, often sitting in the low-90s. He was 90-92 this fall with an average slider that has horizontal wipe during instructs. He’s a big-framed projection arm whose stuff hasn’t ascended yet.

Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.Power-only Bats Low on the Defensive Spectrum
Jacob Nottingham, C
Weston Wilson, 1B/3B/OF
Jake Gatewood, 1B
Chad McClanahan, 1B
Branlyn Jaraba, 3B
David Fry, C/1B
Ernesto Martinez, 1B

Nottingham will turn 24 this offseason. He has plus power but needs to improve behind the plate in order to profile as a power-over-hit backup. Weston Wilson has above-average raw power and can play the corner outfield spots, first base, and some third. He could be a right-handed corner bench bat. Gatewood has plus-plus raw power and has moved from shortstop to third base to first base as a pro. He’s a R/R first baseman with huge power and strikeout issues. Fringe 40-man candidates like that sometimes bloom late, or at least get a shot at some point. McClanahan signed for $1 million as an 11th rounder in 2016. He’s a big-framed projection bat who is already seeing more reps at first than at third. He has premium makeup. Jaraba was a $1 million signee this year. He’s a R/R power bat who looked like a future first baseman this fall. David Fry was the club’s 7th rounder out of Northwestern State. He has above-average power and hasn’t caught all that much, in part because he had TJ in college. Ernesto Martinez is built like a Greek god and has 70 raw power but his swing has not progressed and it’s currently unusable.

The Tommy John Crew
Drew Rasmussen. RHP
Nathan Kirby, LHP
Quintin Torres-Costa, LHP
Nash Walters, RHP
Devin Williams
Josh Pennington, RHP

Rasmussen has had two TJs. He sits 93-96 with average secondary stuff and below average command when healthy. Kirby has had several injury issues and now has a 40 fastball, but his repertoire is deep and he has a 55 curveball. Torres-Costa is a situational lefty who likely would have been in the big leagues in 2018 if not for his injury. Walters was 92-94, touching 95 in the fall and struggled to throw strikes. Devin Williams is 92-93 with a plus curveball. Pennington retired when he needed his second TJ.

One Plus Pitch
Reese Olson, RHP
Justin Jarvis, RHP
Rodrigo Benoit, RHP

Olson signed for $400,000 and was 92-93, touching 94 with a plus curveball in the fall. Benoit has scattershot command of an average fastball and a plus breaking ball. Jarvis has an above-average changeup.

Weird Arm Slots
J.T. Hintzen, RHP
Scott Sunitsch, LHP

Sunitsch no-hit the University of Oregon in April. He’s a low-slot lefty with a good changeup. Hitzen strides way, way open, toward the first base side, and the ball appears to hitters out of where his stomach was when he came set. Both are release-point oddities who have performed so far.

Offseason Addition
Felix Valerio, 2B

Valerio, who turned 18 in December, was acquired as part of the package for Keon Broxton in January. He hit .319/.409/.433 in the DSL during his first pro season and is a skills-over-tools type of prospect who is more polished than most of his peers. He has promising feel for contact and is athletically viable at second base but, at 5-foot-7, 165, he’s less likely to grow into more impressive physical tools than someone with some length and room on their frame. Players like this either hit enough to play second base every day or they don’t, and they end up as org guys. Valerio walked more than he struck out last year, and those types of peripheral indicators are great evidence to support a case that a player will indeed hit that much, but not when we’re talking about DSL stats, so we’re hesitant give significant weight to Valerio’s early-career numbers.

System Overview
This system looks very weak now that several 45 FV or better prospects have either graduated or been traded, and the farm alone doesn’t project a clear picture of the youthful health of this franchise. The focus now shifts to the collective development of the large number of teenagers in the 40 and 35+ FV tiers. Another sizable wave of talent — position players this time — could arrive in Milwaukee in three to five years. The organization’s recent history of hitter development isn’t all that inspiring; most of Milwaukee’s big league position players came from outside the org, and Orlando Arcia hasn’t made the kind of offensive impact that was expected of him as a prospect. Grisham and Erceg have been frustrating and have gone backwards. Things may not bode well for several of the hitters in this system who clearly need improvement in some way to progress like Milwaukee’s pitching has. The Brewers love idiosyncratic pitchers whose stuff plays up because of one weird thing or another, and they’ve had success developing them.


Kiley McDaniel Chat – 11/28/18

12:20

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from FG ATL HQ where there’s a staggering amount of leaves in the backyard, but it allows Scout to run laps like she’s in the snow, leaving a trail when she pulls a tight turn

12:21

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of stuff happening with rumored trades, one big one done, free agency, prospect lists and a fresh draft rankings update coming next week

12:21

Tommy N.: Thoughts on Dan O’Dowd’s trade proposal yesterday on MLB Network of Thor and d’Arnaud for Hedges, Lucchesi, and Paddack?

12:23

Kiley McDaniel: It’s not terrible, but I don’t think that will get it done. We also don’t know if the Mets
1) won’t trade Thor/deGrom and are just listening
2) want to trade them both this winter
3) will consider only overpays, likely waiting at least until the summer to have a clear idea

12:24

Kiley McDaniel: So the price for option 2 and option 3 are probably different, since option 3 either gets an overpay or no deal

12:24

Kiley McDaniel: And until the BVW administration makes some moves, we don’t really know where they stand or how they value players, etc.

Read the rest of this entry »


Top 35 Prospects: Pittsburgh Pirates

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Pirates Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Ke’Bryan Hayes 22.0 AA 3B 2020 55
2 Mitch Keller 22.8 AAA RHP 2019 55
3 Travis Swaggerty 21.5 A CF 2021 50
4 Oneil Cruz 20.3 A CF 2021 50
5 Cole Tucker 22.6 AA SS 2020 50
6 Kevin Kramer 25.3 MLB 2B 2019 45
7 Luis Escobar 22.7 AA RHP 2021 45
8 Calvin Mitchell 19.9 A LF 2021 45
9 Bryan Reynolds 24.0 AA CF 2020 45
10 Pablo Reyes 25.4 MLB 3B 2019 40+
11 Jared Oliva 23.2 A+ CF 2021 40+
12 Tahnaj Thomas 19.6 R RHP 2023 40+
13 Kevin Newman 25.5 MLB SS 2019 40
14 Braxton Ashcraft 19.3 R RHP 2022 40
15 Stephen Alemais 23.8 AA SS 2020 40
16 Will Craig 24.2 AA 1B 2019 40
17 Travis MacGregor 21.3 A RHP 2021 40
18 Lolo Sanchez 19.8 A CF 2021 40
19 Juan Pie 17.8 R RF 2024 40
20 Steven Jennings 20.2 R RHP 2021 40
21 Ji-Hwan Bae 19.5 R SS 2022 40
22 J.T. Brubaker 25.2 AAA RHP 2019 40
23 Braeden Ogle 21.5 A LHP 2022 40
24 Jason Martin 23.4 AAA RF 2019 40
25 Max Kranick 21.5 A RHP 2022 40
26 Conner Uselton 20.7 R RF 2022 40
27 Nick Burdi 26.0 MLB RHP 2019 40
28 Geoff Hartlieb 25.2 AA RHP 2020 40
29 Clay Holmes 25.9 MLB RHP 2019 40
30 Blake Weiman 23.2 AA LHP 2020 35+
31 Cody Bolton 20.6 A RHP 2021 35+
32 Rodolfo Castro 19.7 A 2B 2022 35+
33 Yordi Rosario 20.0 R RHP 2023 35+
34 Grant Koch 22.0 A- C 2022 35+
35 Jesus Liranzo 23.9 AAA RHP 2019 35+
36 Osvaldo Gavilan 17.3 R CF 2024 35+
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55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Concordia Lutheran HS (TX) (PIT)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/55 45/50 30/45 60/55 55/70 60/60

The son of 13-year big leaguer Charlie Hayes, Ke’Bryan has a rare blend of skills that includes premium defense, plus speed, and an offensive profile structured much like his father’s.

The younger Hayes was identified as a potential early-round pick pretty early in high school and eventually climbed to the back of the first round after a strong senior spring. He was drafted 32nd overall and signed for $1.8 million rather than head to Tennesse, where he and Nick Senzel would have played together for a year. Hayes has moved through the minors quickly and had a strong 2018 season at Double-A Altoona — .293/.375/.444 with an 11% BB%, 16.5% K%, 31 2Bs, 12 SB — in what would have been his draft year. He’s one of the best defensive third basemen in the minors and has progressed to become an above-average hitter, as well. A flat-planed swing and conservative hitting footwork are stifling the in-game power production. For Hayes, that’s fine. He does everything else.

It’s possible the Pirates will try to coax more power of out him by tweaking either his footwork or by moving his hands, the latter of which feels riskier. Even without further offensive evolution, Hayes projects as an all-fields, league-average offensive threat with plus-plus defense.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Xavier HS (IA) (PIT)
Age 22.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 40/50 50/60 93-97 / 100

We think the slight uptick in Keller’s walk rate last year could just have been caused by an increased focus on changeup usage. His swinging strike rate took a dip when he reached Double-A despite having two clearly plus pitches: an upper-90s sinker and a curveball. It’s possible the two didn’t pair well together and that a better changeup, or a third pitch, will be needed in order to miss bats. Keller’s changeup did improve throughout 2018, but he walked more guys; we think that aspect of his profile will bounce back once development isn’t coloring his pitch usage.

Keller avoided the DL all year after dealing with various injuries during each of the last three seasons. He projects as an above-average big leaguer starter who misses an average number of bats.

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from South Alabama (PIT)
Age 21.5 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 60/60 30/50 65/65 45/55 60/60

Swaggerty was a new name to most scouts last summer when he starred as the sparkplug for collegiate Team USA, playing center field and batting atop the lineup along with White Sox 2018 first round second baseman Nick Madrigal. Swaggerty showed bat control and gap power, and was a fringe first rounder for many off that first, extended look on Team USA, but he came out this spring looking like a different player. He had become more physical and changed his swing to incorporate his added strength, lifting the ball and evolving from a gap-to-gap speed player into a potential monster with plus raw power, arm strength and speed.

Swaggerty didn’t put up the gaudy numbers you’d expect for a guy with top level tools in a mid-major conference who had also hit with wood on the Cape, and it was because his new swing would get out of whack. His weight transfer was too aggressive at times, causing him to lose balance and be in a poor position to hit offspeed stuff. Swaggerty’s developmental issue is dialing in his swing mechanics and approach to something that best takes advantage of his explosive tools, which could be a multi-year process.

4. Oneil Cruz, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (LAD)
Age 20.3 Height 6′ 7″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 70/80 30/60 60/45 40/45 80/80

A peerless physical freak, Cruz is a 6-foot-7 shortstop with elite raw arm strength and raw power projection. He body-comps more closely to someone like Harold Carmichael or Brandon Ingram than he does anyone in his own sport, and there are several vastly different ideas as to how his body and game will develop as he fills out. Despite his ectomorphic build, lever length and physical immaturiy, Cruz has performed and has handled aggressive assignments pretty well. The Dodgers sent him to Low-A Great Lakes when he was 18, where he ran into 20 extra-base hits in 90 games before being traded to Pittsburgh at the deadline for Tony Watson. He hit .286/.343/.488 in 2018 while repeating Low-A.

There’s real risk Cruz maxes out as a 40 bat, but as long as he’s getting to most of that power, he’ll likely profile just about anywhere on the defensive spectrum. So, where exactly on the defensive spectrum will that be? Shortstops this big don’t exist, but there’s some sentiment in the industry that Cruz will be able to stay there, especially as we enter the era of the lead-footed shortstop. Others consider Cruz’s speed viable in center field long term. Those who think he’ll thicken significantly have him projected to either right field or third base, and others think his size would make for a wonderful target at first. One source thinks Cruz should just be pitching, due to his arm strength and athleticism. Clearly this is one of the more bizarre prospects in baseball with countless possible career outcomes. Most of them are very postive or highly entertaining; several of them end in stardom.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Mountain Pointe HS (AZ) (PIT)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr S / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 45/50 30/40 55/50 50/55 70/70

Tucker was the Arizona Fall League’s most elegant defender. Rangy and smooth, sure-handed and graceful, he has room to add a few pounds as he ages while still remaining above-average at short. A torn labrum in 2015 cast doubt on Tucker’s ability to stay there if his arm strength weren’t to return but, though it took quite a while, it is not only back but has improved, and he now has a 70 arm.

With such an excellent defensive foundation in place, it’s very likely that Tucker becomes an everyday player. What happens with his bat will determine how much of an impact he makes, and that forecast is blurry. Right now, Tucker has surprising contact skills for someone as lanky as he is and he’s adept at identifying balls and strikes. His size and currrent swing both have significant room for growth. Tucker’s bat path enters the hitting zone in such a way that it causes him to pound the ball into the ground. If that gets tweaked, and he also adds strength into his mid-20s, he might suddenly start hitting for power. This is a rare, high-variance prospect who also has a high floor. If the power comes, Tucker will be an All Star; if it doesn’t he’ll just be a solid everyday player.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2015 from UCLA (PIT)
Age 25.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/55 45/45 40/45 40/40 40/45 50/50

Kramer couldn’t catch up to good velo during his short big league stay, but it appeared to be an issue of timing rather than talent. He hit .297 at UCLA and is a .293 hitter as a pro. A swing change after the 2016 season altered his style of hitting pretty drastically, and Kramer has taken on a more proactive approach since making those mechanical alterations (his hands were loading lower, for one), and he’s also hitting for more power. Kramer is a below-average athlete and infield defender. The ceiling for players like this looks like Neil Walker.

7. Luis Escobar, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Colombia (PIT)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 50/60 30/40 92-95 / 97

Escobar exists at the right time in baseball history because his deficiencies are more acceptable now than they ever have been before. He has three potential plus pitches, but struggles to repeat his max-effort delivery in a way that enables any modicum of consistent strike-throwing. He’ll almost certainly need to move to the bullpen, but that three-pitch mix profiles in a multi-inning or high-leverage role.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Rancho Bernardo HS (CA) (PIT)
Age 19.9 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/55 50/55 20/45 40/40 40/50 40/40

Mitchell’s lack of defensive ability played a huge role in pushing him down into the middle of the second round of the 2017 draft. He projects defensively to left field or perhaps even to first base, which leaves no margin for error for his bat. So far, Mitchell has hit. As a 19-year-old at Low-A, Mitchell slashed .280/.344/.427. He has really quick, loose hands in the box and he can move the barrel all over the place. His bat head drags through the hitting zone a bit, which can make it tough for him to pull pitches he should be crushing, but it also leads to some very pretty opposite field doubles.

Because Mitchell’s frame is fairly squat, it’s unlikely that he grows into huge raw power. As such he’ll probably have to develop a special hit tool to profile at the defensive positions he’s capable of playing. He’s off to a strong start in that regard.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Vanderbilt (SFG)
Age 24.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr S / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 50/50 45/50 50/50 45/50 40/40

Reynolds got hot late in the year (he had a .400 OBP in July and August) and ended 2018 with a .302/.381/.438 line at Double-A Altoona. The leg kick he had while with San Francisco is now gone, and the strength of Reynolds’ hands and his ability to move the bat head around the zone have led to sufficiently hard contact without it.

Much of Reynolds’ profile depends upon his ability to stay in center field and the general consensus is that he’s a 45 or 50 defender out there. We keep waiting for Reynolds’ BABIP to regress (it hasn’t), and we expect his unusually high walk rate from 2018 to do eventually so as well (though, he was very selective in the Fall League), but ulimately he projects to be an average offensive player who is fine in center field, which would make him an everyday player of some kind. He turn 24 in January.

40+ FV Prospects

10. Pablo Reyes, 3B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Dominican Republic (PIT)
Age 25.4 Height 5′ 8″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 50/50 45/50 50/50 50/50 50/50

Reyes was Cistulli’s guy on last year’s list when he profiled as a contact-oriented, multi-positional bench player with no power. At some point in 2018, his hands became more active and his swing took on more movement, becoming whippy and more explosive, and the quality of Reyes’ contact was able to improve without costing him much in the way of contact. It culminated in an eye-opening September cup of coffee — an apt phrase for Reyes, who plays like he is extremely caffeinated — during which Reyes slashed .293/.349/.483. September numbers can be noisy because the talent pool has been diluted by roster expansion, but we’re cautiously optimistic that Reyes has become a different hitter. Namely, a gap-to-gap hitter capable of really punishing pitchers who try to beat him with heat on the inner half.

Defensively, he’s perfectly fine at third base and in the outfield corners, and fringy at second base; we’d rather not have him play shortstop. Jordan Luplow’s departure should enable Reyes to see big league reps. We think he’s a valuable bench option and has a chance to be more than that.

11. Jared Oliva, CF
Drafted: 7th Round, 2017 from Arizona (PIT)
Age 23.2 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 187 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/45 55/55 40/45 60/60 45/50 50/50

Oliva went undrafted as an eligible sophomore at Arizona because he was too raw and inexperienced due to a total lack of reps while in high school. He emerged as a speed/raw power flier as a junior, but slid to the Pirates in the 7th round and signed for slot. His performance in 2018, his first full pro season, exceeded all expectations; in his college career (172 games) Oliva produced 9 homers and a .773 OPS while in 2018 at High-A he hit (108 games) 9 homers with a .778 OPS, despite skipping Low-A.

Oliva’s feel for contact is still somewhat clumsy and he remains a power-over-hit offensive performer at the plate, but he’s an athlete in the classic center field mold, like Drew Stubbs and Cameron Maybin, and is very likely to play there for a while. He’s now on a trajectory to start 2019 in Double-A and possibly hit his way to the big leagues just two years after sliding in the draft due to the lack of a statistical track record.

12. Tahnaj Thomas, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Bahamas (CLE)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/60 40/50 45/55 92-95 / 96

Newly acquired from Cleveland as part of the Erik Gonzalez/Jordan Loplow trade, Thomas immediately becomes the most athletic, projectable pitcher in this system. A converted shortstop, he has very little on-mound experience and yet his stuff, feel for location, and breaking ball release are already pretty advanced. His fastball and curveball project to plus pretty easily, and his arm speed/action are promising as far as changeup projection is concerned. His delivery resembles that of Triston McKenzie and it creates a tough-to-squaure, flat angle up in the zone that should allow Thomas to miss bats with his fastball.

He projects as a league-average starter for now, but there’s also massive ceiling here because of the athleticism, and the fact that Thomas is so new to pitching that he may just be scratching the surface.

40 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Arizona (PIT)
Age 25.5 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
55/55 40/40 20/30 60/60 40/45 50/50

Newman’s contact profile is very similar to that of Jose Iglesias. Both have excellent barrel control and find ways to put tough pitches in play, and both generate so little power that they struggle to hit for high averages despite all of that contact. Newman is a value-neutral defensive shortstop, though, which gives him a fine chance of playing some kind of second-division role, but also means several players in this system are breathing down his neck. Now big league ready, Newman projects as a light-hitting, 1 to 1.5 WAR shortstop.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Robinson HS (TX) (PIT)
Age 19.3 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/55 50/55 40/45 45/55 88-93 / 95

A two-sport star in high school, Ashcraft kind of got lost amid the many talented prep arms in the 2018 class, but he was in the second tier, wire-to-wire, for the clubs that emphasize athleticism and projection. He pitches in the low 90’s with an average-ish fastball, a slider that flashes above-average, and a repeatable delivery that can produce above-average command. This is a prototypical high school projection arm: size, arm strength, some spin, and premium athleticism. Pittsburgh has now take a multi-sport athlete with each of their last two second round picks. Elevating Ashcraft above other prep arms in the system is his more consistent velocity, health and physical and technicaly projection.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Tulane (PIT)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 30/30 20/20 60/60 60/70 60/60

Alemais is one of the most acrobatic and athletic defensive players in the minors and began seeing most of his reps at second base, not because he’s an incapable shortstop, but because he was teammates with Cole Tucker. Alemais’ glove is so good that we consider him likely to play some kind of big league role, despite being unlikely to hit. His hands lack life; to Alemais’ credit, he’s done his best to find a way to hit the ball harder by taking high-effort swings, and he hasn’t lost any contact ability in the process. This is an intense, hard-working athlete with some physical shortcomings that will likely limit his role, but he has elite defensive skill and is tough to strike out, which means he has a watered down version of Andrelton Simmons’ skillset.

16. Will Craig, 1B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Wake Forest (PIT)
Age 24.2 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 55/55 45/55 30/30 40/40 60/60

At some point, Craig made a subtle swing change that yielded a drastically different batted ball profile in 2018. He had already added a leg kick earlier in his pro career after raking at Wake Forest without one, but he altered how his hands set up, which more effectively changed his angle of attack. His ground ball rate dropped from 46% to 30% and he slugged 53 extra-base hits last year. The increased lift also caused Craig’s peripherals to shift slightly (the BB% down, the K% up) and his OBP tanked, but we like Craig’s chances of hitting for enough power to profile at first base more now than we did a year ago. His profile is almost exactly like that of Astros 3B/1B J.D. Davis who, like Craig, also pitched in college.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from East Lake HS (FL) (PIT)
Age 21.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/50 50/55 40/50 91-94 / 97

One of two East Lake high school pitchers who were drafted in 2016 (the Mets’ Christian James is the other), things were starting to come together for MacGregor before he blew out and needed Tommy John in September. His strong start to the season was first derailed by a deltoid issue that forced him to the DL in mid-May. He missed five weeks, then returned to Low-A West Virginia and pitched well until late-August when he was again shut down. He’ll likely miss all of 2019 due to the timing of his surgery.

MacGregor’s velocity spiked late during his high school career and the Pirates jumped on him earlier in the draft than he was expected to go. He was only sitting 90-91 and topping out at 94 at the time. Before the elbow went, he was 90-94, touching 97, and locating a qualitty breaking ball. He has mid-rotation upside if his stuff comes back after surgery.

18. Lolo Sanchez, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (PIT)
Age 19.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 150 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 30/45 20/45 60/60 45/55 55/55

2017 Lolo Sanchez was a speedster with advanced bat-to-ball ability and defensive instincts. 2018 Lolo Sanchez was a mechanical mess whose strikeout rate doubled. Sanchez’s hands began loading even lower than they had before, way down near the bottom of his abdomen, presumably to introduce more lift to his swing. Indeed, Sanchez’s ground ball percent dropped nine percentage points, but the changes compromised the quality of his contact in other ways, and made it hard for him to connect with pitches in some parts of the zone at all. His hands were stiff and loading late; they didn’t seem as quick and twitchy as they had the previous year. These issues were exacerbated by Sanchez’s already pull-heavy approach.

Take solace in the fact that he is only 19 and doesn’t turn 20 until April, and that his assignment to full season ball in 2018 was very aggressive. He also remains fast and quite good in center field. He looked much more like a fourth outfielder in 2018 than a table-setting center fielder, but there’s lots of time to bounce back.

19. Juan Pie, RF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (PIT)
Age 17.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 45/60 30/55 55/50 40/50 55/60

Until the late pickup of Ji-Hwan Bae, Pie was the top international signing for the Pirates, with a $500,000 bonus in the 2017 international signing period, the club’s first after the dismissal of international director Rene Gayo. Pie was seen as a tools gamble, with classic everyday right field upside but crudeness typical for his age and build.

He quickly shed much of that crudeness in a loud pro debut this summer in the DSL. Pie showed a little bit of everything, and we think the upside is that of a 5 hit, 6 power, 5 run/defense type everday right fielder, but it’s still early to be projecting a 5 bat with any certainty given that Pie hasn’t played stateside yet. That said, there are prospects in the Top 100– who went in the first round in 2018 — who have this kind of upside, and Pie could be alongside them if he can repeat this kind of performance for the next few years.

20. Steven Jennings, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from DeKalb HS (TN) (PIT)
Age 20.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/55 50/55 40/45 30/50 40/50 88-92 / 94

Jennings was a dual-threat quarterback at DeKalb and was actually the MVP of his high school’s classification as an underclassman. He blew out his ACL on the football field the following fall, and yet he was back on the mound the following spring and pitched well enough for the Pirates to offer him $1.9 million as a second rounder (he was committed to Ole Miss).

Jennings can really spin it but his velocity has waxed and waned as a pro, hovering anywhere between the upper-80s and low-80s. Each of his two breaking balls has premium raw spin, but Jennings release of them, epsecially the slider, hasn’t become consistent enough yet for them to play like plus pitches. At age 20, Jennings is still an uncooked, developmental project, but his athletic ability and talent for spinning the ball mean he could really break out if things click mechanically.

21. Ji-Hwan Bae, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from South Korea (PIT)
Age 19.5 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/55 35/45 20/40 65/65 40/50 50/55

Bae originally agreed to terms with the Braves, but that contract was never approved as the deal was voided as part of the sanctions for Atlanta’s international indiscretions. Bae hit the market anew and signed for $1.25 million with the Pirates. Last month, Bae was found guilty of assaulting his former girlfriend in Korea in an incident that occurred on New Year’s Eve 2017; it’s unknown whether or not MLB will suspend him now that the case has concluded.

Scouts in the Pacific rim likened Bae’s skills to those of Hak-Ju Lee, as Lee was also a speedy, contact-oriented shortstop at this age. Bae posts 60 and sometimes 70- grade run times from home to first and has advanced contact skills, with a swing familiar to many in Japan’s NPB. There isn’t much strength or power to his offensive game. An interesting aspect of Bae’s development will be his transition from largely turf infields in Korea to grass and dirt in America. His arm appears to be below-average at times due to a quick-flip throwing motion. It was fine for first basemen in Korea to field balls on a clean hop of the turf, but it’s not ideal for pro ball here in the States. Most scouts think there’s the ability to stick at short, it just isn’t always evident to scouts without this context.

22. J.T. Brubaker, RHP
Drafted: 6th Round, 2015 from Akron (PIT)
Age 25.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/50 55/55 40/45 40/45 92-95 / 97

Brubaker was the Pirates’ 2018 Minor League Pitcher of the Year after posting a 2.81 ERA over 28 Double and Triple-A starts. He has been remarkably durable as a pro, only requiring a single DL stint in 2017, and even that was only due to a blister. He added a curveball that wasn’t there (at least, wasn’t used in Eric’s Fall League looks) in 2017 and it became his best secondary pitch. It’s a good 12-6 curveball in the low-80s and Brubaker complements it with a hard slider in the 88-90 mph range.

Brubaker’s fastball doesn’t have bat-missing life or ride, but he knows how to attack hitters with his two breaking balls and should fit in the back of a rotation or in a relief role.

23. Braeden Ogle, LHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2016 from Jensen Beach HS (FL) (PIT)
Age 21.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/55 40/50 30/45 91-94 / 95

Of the similarly-aged pitching prospects on this list, Ogle actually has the best present stuff. He’ll bump 96 from the left side and his mid-80s slider is already above-average. But Ogle has had trouble staying healthy. He had knee surgery in 2017, was shut down with shoulder inflammation in April of 2018, and didn’t pitch for the rest of the year. If a move to the bullpen occurs to try to keep Ogle healthy, we think he could move quickly as a two-pitch lefty reliever.

24. Jason Martin, RF
Drafted: 8th Round, 2013 from Orange Lutheran HS (CA) (HOU)
Age 23.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 50/50 40/45 50/50 45/50 50/50

Since a 2016 swing change increased the angle in his swing, Martin has performed at every level until reaching Triple-A in 2018. He’s a tweener defensive outfielder with a collection of average tools, and he profiles in a bench/platoon role. He’ll likely debut next year.

25. Max Kranick, RHP
Drafted: 11th Round, 2016 from Valley View HS (PA) (PIT)
Age 21.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
45/50 50/55 40/50 91-93 / 96

Kranick was an athletic proejction arm from the Northeast who signed for $300,000 as an 11th rounder in 2016. He barely pitched in 2017 due to a shoulder issue. He was back on an affiliated mound in May and, though his repertoire is very limited, his stuff is now better than it was in high school. He mixes in a four and two-seamer in the 91-93 range but will touch 96, and he’ll show you an above-average slider. Pro scouts have him projected as a two-pitch reliever because that’s really all they’ve seen from him, and Kranick is already 21, but let’s see what else materializes as he gets more reps.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Southmoore HS (OK) (PIT)
Age 20.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 55/70 20/55 50/40 40/50 60/60

Uselton had a rough first season in pro ball as a 20-year-old in the Appy League. His bat was raw coming out of high school, especially for a hitter who was old for his class, but he was a second round pick because he already had big power and was likely to grow into more. He remains an archtypical right field prospect. There’s power, a huge frame, and arm strength. He’d be a sophomore-eligible college player in 2019 had he gone to Oklahoma State and the Pirates typically send newly drafted collegians to the New York-Penn League. That means Uselton will likely begin 2019 in extended spring training and, since he’ll essentially be repeating that level until June, he needs to start hitting while he’s there.

27. Nick Burdi, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Louisville (MIN)
Age 26.0 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 40/40 94-96 / 98

A 2017 Rule 5 selection by the Phillies, Burdi was immediately flipped to Pittsburgh for international bonus space and spent much of 2018 recovering from Tommy John. He started a rehab assignemnt in mid-July and made his major league debut in September, his stuff mostly back to pre-TJ form. He topped out at 98 and broke off plenty of nasty sliders, but his command and the quality of break on the slider were inconsistent, which is typical of those returning from TJ. Burdi’s delivery is odd. His swivels about an axis created by a stiff front leg. It makes it hard for him to get over his front side and is difficult to repeat. This, combined with his injury history, mean he’s perceived as a risk for chronic health issues.

If he can stay healthy, he could pitch at the back of a bullpen. Rule 5 roster requirements state that a drafted player needs to be on his new team’s big league roster for 90 days for his new club to keep him, which means Burdi needs to stay with the Pirates through April and May or else be offered back to the Twins.

28. Geoff Hartlieb, RHP
Drafted: 29th Round, 2016 from Lindenwood Univ (PIT)
Age 25.2 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 30/40 40/45 94-98 / 100

After graduating high school, Hartlieb played basketball at Division II Quincy University for a season, then transferred to Lindenwood, where he re-introduced himself to baseball. He began throwing harder than he did as a prep prospect. The Pirates picked him late in the 2016 draft and Hartlieb’s velocity has continued to climb as he has moved fairly quickly through the system, reaching Double-A and the Arizona Fall League in his second full season. He now sits 94-98 and has touched 100. He can alter the shape of his fastball to either ride or sink, and he will flash an above-average slider on occasion. He also has a well-below average changeup. With this size and small school, multi-sport athletic background, it’s possible Hartlieb has some remaining development despite his age. He projects as a middle relief option.

29. Clay Holmes, RHP
Drafted: 9th Round, 2011 from Slocomb HS (AL) (PIT)
Age 25.9 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/55 45/45 45/45 40/40 93-96 / 99

Holmes threw 26 wild innings in the majors last year. He has a heavy sinker in the mid-to-upper 90s but lacks a dominant secondary offering that might carry him to a more significant role. There’s a chance his curveball turns into that, but overhand cuves like Holmes’ don’t typically pair well with sinkers. Repertoire depth and an ability to generate ground balls should enable Holems to pich in relief or as a fifth starter.

35+ FV Prospects

30. Blake Weiman, LHP
Drafted: 8th Round, 2017 from Kansas (PIT)
Age 23.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 208 Bat / Thr R / L FV 35+

Low-slot pitchers like Weiman have a more accentuated platoon disadvantage because opposite-handed hitters see the ball earlier and better out of their hand. Pitchers can mitigate this in a variety of ways, whether by creating a tough angle in on the hands of righties or having their stuff be just so good it doesn’t matter or by having surgical breaking ball command. Weiman is the last of these. He dots his slider wherever he wants and uses it in any count, which enables his fringy fastball to sneak up on hitters who can’t just sit on it because of the slider. We typically just 35 FV lefty specialists, which is what Weiman appears to be on the surface, but he might be crafty enough to get righties out, too.

31. Cody Bolton, RHP
Drafted: 6th Round, 2017 from Tracy HS (CA) (PIT)
Age 20.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Bolton had a strong start to his 2018 season before he was shut down in July with a shoulder issue. He didn’t pitch for the rest of the summer. Healthy Bolton touches 95 and will show you an above-average slider and average changeup. He sat 86-90 as a rising high school senior but has since altered the timing of his arm swing for the better, and the resulting velo is fairly new. Because his delivery is somewhat grotesque and Bolton has now had a shoulder problem, there’s apprehension about his health. He was breaking out, then just broke, so now we’re in wait-and-see mode regarding his stuff.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (PIT)
Age 19.7 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+

After a very strong 2017, Castro began 2018 as an 18-year-old in full-season ball. He didn’t perform well on paper, but still has an exciting combination of defensive ability and power projection. Built like a freshman combo guard, Castro’s has a good chance to add strength as he ages without compromising his ability to play second base. His hitting hands are explosive but still pretty uncoordinated, especially from the left side of the plate. That will need to be smoothed out as Castro develops, but he has some feel for lifting the ball and he’s able to drop the bat head to get to pitches down and in. Likely a long-term developmental project, Castro has a shot to hit for some power and play up the middle.

33. Yordi Rosario, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (CHW)
Age 20.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Rosario was acquired for Ivan Nova during the 2019 Winter Meetings. He’s an advanced strike-thrower with a fastball in the 88-93 range and an average curveball, both of which could improve as Rosario grows into his body. Realistically he profiles as a future #4/5 starter.

34. Grant Koch, C
Drafted: 5th Round, 2018 from Arkansas (PIT)
Age 22.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

The Pirates have taken a bat-first catcher with power in the fifth round each of the last two years. And much like Deon Stafford the year before, Koch was in the third round mix entering the spring but had a down junior year and slid a few rounds. A bounce back and defensive improvements are necessary parts of Koch’s future, but we like him as a fifth round, buy low flier.

35. Jesus Liranzo, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Dominican Republic (ATL)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Now 23, Liranzo was scuttled around various orgs in 2018 (BAL, then LAD, then PIT). He has one of the fastest arms in pro baseball. He sits 97 and touches 102, but has no idea where it’s going. We think altering his stride length and direction might solve some of his issues but he also might just be a guy who never repeats his delivery. He could be a dynamite bullpen arm or nothing at all.

36. Osvaldo Gavilan, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (PIT)
Age 17.3 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

Gavilan was the Pirates’ top July 2 signee from 2018 at $700,000. He’s an average runner (he ran a 7.1 60-yard-dash in workouts) with good instincts in center field; he’ll stay there if he speeds up as he matures as an athlete. His current swing is somewhat long but again, Gavilan has advanced feel to hit, enough to compensate for his mechanical maladies right now. He has a better chance of either hitting, staying in center field, or both, than the outfielders in the Others of Note section on this list.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Teenage Outfielders
Daniel Rivero, CF
Angel Basabe, RF
Sergio Campana, LF
Jack Herman, RF

Rivero has advanced contact skills and stands this group’s best chance of staying in center. Basabe signed for $450,000 in 2017 and had a solid first year in pro ball. His tools all hover around average right now and he only has modest physical projection, but he has one of the prettier left-handed swings from his signing class and has natural feel for lifting the ball. Once his lower half gets more involved in his swing, he could start hitting for big in-game power. Campana was a $500,000 signee in 2018. He has a strong, Derek Dietrich-ish frame, average offensive tools, and might need to move to left due to arm strength. A 30th round high schooler from New Jersey who signed for $50,000, Herman hit .340/.435/.489 in the GCL, and had nearly as many walks as strikeouts. He’s just 6-foot tall but has a broad-shouldered frame with some room for more mass and there’s already some pop here. His arm is plus.

Power-hitters with Rough Defensive Profiles
Mason Martin, 1B
Jonah Davis, LF
Edison Lantigua, RF

A 17th rounder in 2017, Martin’s incredible foray into pro ball — .307/.457/.630 — forced re-evaluation. He has powerful, explosive hands and big raw power, but also has a maxed-out, 6-foot frame, only profiles at first base, and posted a 33% strikeout rate in 2018. He doesn’t turn 20 until next June and has a chance to be a three-true-outcome first baseman but there’s no margin for error on the bat because he’s at the bottom of the defensive spectrum. Davis has easy plus raw power from the left side but is a LF/DH-only defender and he struck out a ton in college. Lantigua has a well-rounded, vanilla toolset and has performed up through the NYPL.

Bat-first Catchers
Deon Stafford, C
Samuel Inoa, C

Stafford has big, strength-driven power but hasn’t improved enough behind the plate. He does have plus makeup and is a good athlete for his size, so perhaps that defensive will still come. Inoa is a strong, early-career performer with a strong hit tool, but he might not catch.

New Middle Infielders
Connor Kaiser, SS
Luis Tejada, SS
Juan Jerez, 2B
Orlando Chivilli, SS
Alexander Mojica, 3B

Kaiser (3rd round in 2018 from Vanderbilt) has similarities to Pirates 2008 3rd rounder Jordy Mercer as a bigger college shortstop without big offensive impact; Kaiser was scorching hot in the college postseason but needs to dial in his swing and approach. Tejada ($500,000) is built like Jeter Downs, and has above-average hands and some pull-side pop. He has the best combination of physicality and defensive ability of this group. It’s possible Jerez ($380,000) grows into enough arm strength to play the left side of the infield, but for now he has a 40 arm and fits better at second base. He’s currently very small but has a square, long-limbed frame (like a scaled-down Jed Lowrie) that has room for plenty of mass, and he can already swing it fairly well for a 135-pound kid. Chivilli ($350,000) is similar but has less room on the frame. Mojica ($350,000) is a thicker, 3B-only prospect with present pop.

Late-bloomer Pitching Candidates
Elvis Escobar, LHP
Oliver Mateo, RHP
Angel German, RHP
Jose Maldonado, RHP
Lizardy Dicent, RHP

Escobar is a converted outfielder who has only been pitching for a few months. He’s been up to 95 mph from the left side and shown great changeup feel right away. His breaking ball is fringy but plays up a bit against lefties because he hides the ball well. Mateo and German throw in the upper-90s but each is quite wild. Maldonado is a strong-bodied 19-year-old who sits 91-95 and has average secondaries. Dicent sits 91-93, touches 96, and has an average slider.

Recently Acquired Projection Arms
Dante Mendoza, RHP
Wilkin Ramos, RHP

19-year-old Dante Mendoza was a 12th round high school draftee in 2017 who spent 2018 in the AZL, with Cleveland. Pittsburgh acquired him in the Erik Gonzalez/Jordan Luplow deal. At 6-foot-5, Mendoza joins a system full of huge-framed pitching prospects. He has been up to 93 but sits 87-90 with the fastball and has an advanced changeup and breaking ball. There’s a strong possibility that Mendoza’s stuff ticks up as his body matures and he turns into a good big league pitcher of some kind, realistically in the back of a rotation. Ramos has less present stuff — he was 87-90 and touching 92 in the fall, which is actually down a bit from the previous fall — but more physical projection as he’s an ultra-wiry 6-foot-5. He has some feel for a slow, loopy curveball and began using a slider/cutter in the upper-70s last year. He turned 18 on Halloween 2018 and is a long-term developmental project.

System Overview

After the Chris Archer trade, the Pirates appear as if they’re ready to compete for the next few seasons, so getting pieces from the farm system who will play for the league minimum will help create an increased margin for error in the team’s payroll. Pittsburgh has mostly spent in the middle bonus tier (under $1 million) of the international market and has gotten solid early results on their most recent signings. In the draft, they have a type with respect to pitchers, leaning heavily toward big players with projectable velocity (extension is a big part of that) and breaking ball spin rate. They’re a little harder to pin down when it comes to hitters, and their approach to the international market and amateur pitching is where a progressive leaning is particularly evident.

There are a number of hitters, especially at the top of this list, who, as noted in their reports, are in the midst of a swing change. That introduces some variance to the profiles of prospects whose stat lines wouldn’t seem to suggest it, which is a good thing. Variance is typically read as risk when it comes to prospects, and so more of it is bad. That’s often true, but variance can also mean a wide range of outcomes, with Cole Tucker a classic example of a high floor prospect who also has a high ceiling if it all breaks right.


FanGraphs Audio Presents: The Untitled McDongenhagen Project, Ep. 7

UMP: The Untitled McDongenhagen Project, Episode 7
This is the seventh episode of a weekly program co-hosted by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel about player evaluation in all its forms. The show, which is available through the normal FanGraphs Audio feed, has a working name but barely. The show is not all prospect stuff, but there is plenty of that, as the hosts are Prospect Men. Below are some timestamps to make listening and navigation easier.

1:41 – Our plugs, because we wrote a lot in the last week or so

2:52 – TOPIC ONE: FanGraphs’ Craig Edwards on his prospect asset value research that was rolled out this week over four articles

5:45 – Jason Heyward vs. Ronald Acuna Jr. in terms of service time and using that to count WAR

10:58 – Adjusting FV grades throughout a prospect’s career and how Craig adjusted for that and positional bias

15:15 – Can we put a dollar value on variance?

19:00 – Can we apply this framework to big leaguers?

25:15 – Craig takes a flamethrower to new managing editor Meg Rowley

25:45 – TOPIC TWO: New FanGraphs managing editor Meg Rowley joins the show to talk about the dark side of prospect asset value and what’s going on with the Mariners

27:00 – Are we bad people? You decide! (Meg decided.)

28:50 – Meg drops a swear. (Meg didn’t.)

30:50 – Kiley tries to defend himself

35:45 – Scrooge McDuck is referenced

40:25 – Does baseball’s salary structure need to completely change?

47:55 – Kiley proposes an ignored market inefficiency

52:10 – Meg bums everyone out

52:33 – We try to sort out our feelings about Dr. Lorena Martin’s accusations against the Mariners

1:14:13 – TOPIC THREE: Lightning round!

1:14:50 – SUBTOPIC ONE: MLB’s PDP program for high school players is expanding; how does this affect middle and lower income high school players, prep pitcher’s health, data collection, multi-sport athletes and the scouting schedule at large?

1:26:45 – Will this increase the trend of having more non-scouts having input in draft rooms?

1:28:10 – SUBTOPIC TWO: Houston and Baltimore’s front offices hiring influx, where they stand with staffing, how they’re making decisions and what assets Baltimore should be moving in the short-term

1:46:17 – SUBTOPIC THREE: U. of Arkansas pitching coach Wes Johnson was hired to go straight to the big leagues as the Minnesota Twins pitching coach on Rocco Baldelli’s new coaching staff. Is this a new pipeline of high-end college coaches heading straight to MLB?

1:53:00 – The job that MLB teams are outsourcing to the internet

1:56:30 – A somber goodbye to our dearly departed Carson Cistulli

2:02:12 – Eric brings up our third bummer topic of the podcast

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @kileymcd or @longenhagen on Twitter or at prospects@fangraphs.com.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 2 hr 2 min play time.)

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Notes on the Prospects Traded on 40-Man Crunch Day

Here are brief notes on the prospects who were traded ahead of the 40-man roster deadline. The Padres had several prospects who needed to be added to the 40-man — including Chris Paddack and Anderson Espinoza — and were the most active team.

Cleveland gets:
Walker Lockett, RHP

San Diego gets:
Ignacio Feliz, RHP

Lockett will provide immediate rotation depth for a contending Cleveland team as a 5th/6th starter and will probably be on the 25-man bubble in the spring. His fastball, 91-94, is very average. He can also make it sink in the 87-90 range. Each of his off-speed pitches — a changeup and curveball — will flash above-average. His changeup has a tendency to sail a bit, but it moves.

I think Feliz, who turned 19 in October, was the best prospect traded today. He’s a very athletic conversion arm who can spin a good breaking ball. He was 88-92 with natural cut during the summer and should grow into more velocity. He’ll probably begin 2019 in extended spring training.

Boston gets:
Colten Brewer, RHP

San Diego gets:
Esteban Quiroz, 2B

Brewer was a minor league free agent signee after the 2017 season. He was up and down between San Diego and El Paso a few times in 2018, and was 92-94 with cut, up to 96. At times he’d take a little off and throw more of a slider around 87-88 mph. Brewer also has plus-plus breaking ball spin rates on an 82-85 mph curveball he doesn’t locate very well. If that improves, Brewer will be a good 40-50 inning relief option.

Quiroz is the most interesting prospect traded today. He was Team Mexico’s leadoff hitter in the 2017 WBC (he hit two homers and a double in 6 at-bats) and spent 2015-2017 crushing the Mexican League. He signed with Boston in November 2017 and had a hot April in 2018 at Double-A, but then missed three and a half months with an abdominal strain. He only played in 24 games at Double-A, then had 62 extra plate appearances in the Arizona Fall League.

Here in Arizona, Quiroz looked pretty good. He’s a stocky and strong 5-foot-6, and he has average, all-fields power. He hit two full-extension, opposite field shots this fall, including one that got out just left of center field at Sloan Park in Mesa. He’s patient and makes good decisions at the plate. He’s also fine at second base (below-average arm, below-average runner, above-average athlete, average hands) and played a lot of other positions while in Mexico. He’ll either need to be viable at other positions or just hit enough to play second base every day. It appears he has a chance to do the latter.

Cubs get:
Rowan Wick, RHP

San Diego gets:
Jason Vosler, 3B

Wick is a capable, generic middle reliever. He works 93-96, has an above-average slider, and a change-of-pace curveball.

Vosler is a an extreme fly ball hitter (over 50%) with huge platoon splits. He might be just a 30 bat, but Vosler can play third and first and he crushes lefties; I think he’s a corner bench bat or platoon player.

Colorado gets:
Jordan Foley, RHP

Yankees get:
Jefry Valdez, RHP

Foley was 91-93 this fall; his changeup and slider were average, and he struggled to throw strikes. He’s 25 and coming off a good year at Double-A.

Valdez didn’t sign a pro contract until he was 20, and Colorado didn’t push him to an age-appropriate level despite his success, so he’s a 23-year-old who hasn’t set foot in full-season ball. But he’s a really loose, wiry 6-foot-1 with a good arm action. He has been 92-94 with an above-average curveball in my looks. I like him as a late-blooming relief candidate.

Oakland gets:
Tanner Anderson, RHP

Pirates get:
PTBNL

Anderson is an average sinker, above-average slider righty reliever, who sits 92-95.


Kiley McDaniel Turkey Chat – 11/21/18

11:03

Kiley McDaniel: Here I am, a bit ahead of schedule given the vagaries of holiday family blah blah blah

11:03

Kiley McDaniel: I wrote up the Paxton trade prospects yesterday here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/updating-the-prospects-in-…

11:04

Kiley McDaniel: Eric wrote up the CLE/TB trade: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cleveland-swaps-teenage-athlete-for-pi…

11:04

Kiley McDaniel: and we have the STL list up, PIT list is already done, coming Monday and here’s the primer on the changes to THE BOARD: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/the-board-updated-for-2019…

11:04

Tumbler, Whiskey: You were brilliantly composed on MLB Network yesterday. Nice job. That is all.

11:04

Kiley McDaniel: Thanks! Yes, I also did that.

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Updating the Prospects in the Paxton Trade

The headliner in the James Paxton deal is LHP Justus Sheffield. He’s been a top prospect for so long that it’s easy to find updated reports on him and understand where he falls in the prospects landscape. The short version is that he has an above-average-to-plus four-pitch mix, but his command ranges from average to below average, so he could still fit in a number of roles in the big leagues, ranging from multi-inning relief power arm to mid-rotation starter.

The more intriguing pieces of this deal are the other two names, RHP Erik Swanson and CF Dom Thompson-Williams. Neither were on the year-end version of THE BOARD, but both were on our radar; we intentionally didn’t comb through every 40 FV candidate in the in-season update since that’s what we focus on in the winter.

If we were doing the Mariners list today, both would be 40 FVs; they’re good examples of guys who sneak up on you during the season and in whom you have greater confidence moving up once the season ends. Swanson works 92-94 with a rising four-seamer, hitting 98 mph at times with some deception and life, and backs it up with a solid average slider and advanced feel for how to use both pitches in tandem. He could be something like a back-end starter who mostly uses two pitches, but he’s more likely to be the 5th-7th best starting option for a contender, and fits most comfortably as a David Phelps-type multi-inning fireman who can also do the job of long relief and spot-starting. There’s upside as a 50 FV here (4th starter or setup guy) but he’s more likely to be a 45 FV in the big leagues as a useful utility-type arm, so a 40+ or 40 FV would be appropriate.

Thompson-Williams is a sneaky athlete who’s a solid average runner with an average arm that some think can play a solid center field, but that most think is a fourth outfielder-type who can play all three spots. He has plus raw power and some feel to hit, so there’s low-end everyday upside if things continue to come together at the plate as they did in 2018. But he was 23 years old in High-A, so he’ll need to move quickly to be likely to reach that upside. More likely, Thompson-Williams is a useful bench option as a platoon at multiple spots or as a player who can provide some thump off the bench. Given his shorter track record and age, that’s a 40 FV for now with a chance to turn into a 45 FV with more performance, certainty, and proximity to the majors.

I’ve been asked a few times where these prospects fall on the dollar scale of our new prospect valuation metrics. Sheffield likely won’t rank exactly 54th on our next Top 100 in January, but the $29 million figure is about right. Swanson and Thompson-Williams combine for about $5 million more. Paxton is due in the $20-$25 million range for his next two years via arbitration while projected–using the same $9 million per WAR figure that generated the prospect values–to be worth somewhere around $60-$69 million in that span. So the Mariners receive around $35 million in prospect value, and send $35-$50 million of value back, depending on where Paxton ends up in his range. That’s within the margin for error, but is a bit lighter than expected for a Paxton package given the wide interest. That said, this trade appears to bring the Mariners out of the cellar of our first farm system rankings.