Archive for Padres

Padres Strike Back Behind Dominant Bullpen, Force Game 3 in Chicago

Matt Marton-Imagn Images

If there was a blueprint for a Padres victory this postseason, it would look a lot like their 3-0 victory over the Cubs on Wednesday. The Friars got some standout moments from superstars Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Jackson Merrill, and their bullpen completely shut down the opposition behind a solid 3 2/3 inning start from Dylan Cease. The win forces a decisive final game of the Wild Card series on Thursday.

Pitching ruled the day for San Diego. Cease was excellent in his abbreviated start, allowing just four baserunners while striking out five. He generated 15 whiffs on 37 swings — a 41% whiff rate — and his slider was absolutely unhittable. He worked around harmless singles in the first and third innings. Only after a two-out double from Seiya Suzuki in the fourth did Padres manager Mike Shildt turn to his bullpen. After intentionally walking Carson Kelly to get to Pete Crow-Armstrong, Adrian Morejon quickly dismissed the Cubs center fielder with a weak groundout to first.

Morejon pitched two more clean innings, then handed the ball off to Mason Miller. Miller struck out five Cubs hitters in a row, then plunked Michael Busch with two outs in the eighth inning. With a man on first, Shildt again went to the bullpen, calling on Robert Suarez to get the final out. Nico Hoerner lined a pitch to deep right field, but Tatis made an acrobatic catch to end the inning. Suarez allowed a one-out single to Kyle Tucker in the ninth, but got Suzuki to hit into a game-ending double play to secure the victory.

With their season on the line, Shildt was obviously managing to win today. The quick hook with Cease meant that his bullpen needed to cover the remaining 5 1/3 innings. Cease had reached 69 pitches by the time Suzuki doubled in the fourth, but it didn’t look like he was laboring. Morejon had already gotten warm in the previous inning, and walking Kelly to get to Crow-Armstrong seemed like a good strategic move in an early high-leverage spot. PCA had limped to a .231 wOBA over the past two months and had produced just a .250 wOBA against left-handed pitching this year. But that short start from Cease and subsequent heavy bullpen usage obviously has some knock-on effects for Thursday’s game.

Padres Bullpen Usage
Pitcher IP H R BB K Game 1 Pitch Count Game 2 Pitch Count
Adrian Morejon 3.1 2 0 0 1 9 33
Mason Miller 2.2 0 0 0 8 13 27
Jeremiah Estrada 0.2 1 1 1 0 10 0
Robert Suarez 1.1 1 0 0 0 0 18

Robert Suarez and Jeremiah Estrada have only been used once each in this series, but Morejon and Miller have thrown more than 40 pitches apiece. I’m sure both will say they’re available to pitch for a third day in a row, but Shildt has to be wary of burning them out. If Game 3 is close and the Padres are leading, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Miller for an inning on Thursday. Thankfully, Suarez and Estrada won’t have any restrictions for that final game in the series, and Michael King could be available to pitch if necessary.

Back to Wednesday’s game. San Diego got on the board early, scratching across a run in the first inning against opener Andrew Kittredge. Tatis and Luis Arraez started the game off with back-to-back singles and then successfully completed a double steal with one out in the inning. That put a runner on third for Jackson Merrill, who hit a deep sacrifice fly to get the first run on the board.

Cubs manager Craig Counsell’s decision to use Kittredge as an opener ahead of Shota Imanaga was reasonable. Imanaga has really struggled in the first inning this year — he has a 7.20 ERA in the first frame and a 5.08 ERA in his first time through a lineup — and he’d limped to a 6.51 ERA over his final five regular-season starts. Kittredge had been one of Chicago’s better high-leverage relievers since he was acquired from the Orioles in July, and a quick first inning could have set up Imanaga to face a string of left-handed batters in the middle of the Padres lineup in the second inning. Things just didn’t work out the way Counsell drew it up, and the team was on the back foot from the get-go.

The real killer blow came in the fifth inning. With a runner on second and two outs, Imanaga grooved a first-pitch splitter to Machado. The star third baseman launched the pitch 404 feet into the left field bleachers.

Machado finished the regular season in a bit of a weird slump. He blasted six home runs in September, but his overall line that month was just an 85 wRC+. That was an improvement over the 70 wRC+ he had posted in August, but he was still trying to regain his form after a customarily solid first half of the season.

I’d also be remiss if I didn’t mention how absolutely dominant Miller has been in this series. In Game 1, he struck out the side in the seventh inning. Today, he picked up right where he left off, striking out five batters in a row before a back-foot slider to Busch grazed its intended target in the eighth. And then there was this absolute beauty of a pitch to strike out Kelly in the seventh:

At 104.5 mph, that was the fastest pitch ever recorded in the postseason, and the fourth-fastest pitch resulting in a strikeout in the pitch tracking era (regular-season or postseason). And the pitch dotted the lower outside corner for a called strike three! Miller’s four-seamer averaged 103.0 mph in his outing today. Just look at these absolutely insane results from his two outings in the postseason:

Mason Miller Dominance
Pitch Count Whiffs Called Strikes Whiff% CSW%
Four-seam 16 7 1 77.8% 50.0%
Slider 24 4 9 57.1% 54.2%

He’s been completely unhittable. I already discussed his availability for Game 3 above, but if the Padres need him, I’m sure he’ll be ready to pitch another shutdown inning on Thursday.

That decisive game will likely feature more bullpen machinations from both teams. Yu Darvish and Jameson Taillon are listed as the starters, but I imagine both managers will be quick to pull them at the first sign of danger. If there’s one benefit to the Cubs’ loss on Wednesday, it’s that the best arms in their bullpen are rested. Kittredge will probably only be available in an emergency, but Daniel Palencia, Brad Keller, and Drew Pomeranz have all had a day’s rest ahead of Thursday’s contest. That just might give them the edge in what should be a very tightly contested elimination game.


A Look at the Defenses of the 2025 Postseason Teams

Melissa Tamez-Imagn Images

Dansby Swanson brought home back-to-back Gold Gloves in 2022 with the Braves and ’23 with the Cubs while leading the majors in Statcast’s Fielding Run Value in both seasons. Although he hasn’t added any hardware to his collection since then, and while his defensive metrics have slipped, he still grades out as comfortably above average in both FRV and Defensive Runs Saved. His defensive acumen was on display in Tuesday’s Wild Card Series opener between the Cubs and Padres, as he made a couple of pivotal, run-saving plays in Chicago’s 3-1 victory.

The Padres had taken the lead in the second inning, when Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts opened the frame with back-to-back doubles off Matthew Boyd; Bogaerts took third when center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong’s relay spurted away from Nico Hoerner at second base. Ryan O’Hearn then hit a sizzling 101-mph groundball, and Swanson, who was shaded up the middle, dove to his right to stop it. He looked Bogaerts back to third base, then threw to first for the out. The play loomed large as Bogaerts ended up stranded.

The Padres threatened again in the fourth, when Manny Machado drew a leadoff walk and took second on Merrill’s sacrifice bunt. Bogaerts legged out a chopper into the no-man’s land to the right of the mound for an infield single, and San Diego appeared poised to capitalize when O’Hearn hit a flare into shallow center field. Swanson had other ideas, making a great over-the-shoulder snag of the ball, then in one motion turning to fire home to keep Machado honest.

Read the rest of this entry »


Back-to-Back Home Runs Spur Cubs’ Game 1 Win

David Banks-Imagn Images

Wrigley Field and its patrons are accustomed to day baseball, as the club still honors its once electricity-free history by playing Friday home games in the afternoon rather than at night. And so despite having not hosted playoff baseball since 2020 (and a playoff win since 2017), the scene on Wild Card Tuesday, a day that saw Chicago bathed in gorgeously clear fall light while still enjoying lovely late-summer temperatures, was a familiar one, as the Cubs dispatched the visiting Padres 3-1 in a brisk Game 1. The afternoon’s action was headlined by back-to-back home runs by Seiya Suzuki and Carson Kelly, as well as the perfect 4 2/3 innings worked by the Chicago bullpen.

Much like ABC’s broadcast, both offenses struggled to make sustained noise (was anyone else’s volume constantly fluctuating?) in this game. The teams combined for just 10 total hits, and the Cubs didn’t have a single hit with a runner in scoring position all afternoon. Under the hood, it was the Padres who made more frequent, high-quality contact, even though they managed just four hits. San Diego was responsible for 14 of the game’s 21 hard-hit (95 mph or more off the bat) balls in play, many of which were struck right at Cubs defenders. Read the rest of this entry »


54 Outs to Freedom: Padres vs. Cubs NL Wild Card Preview

David Frerker and Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

A Padres-Cubs NL Wild Card Series ought to delight people who are 10 to 15 years older than I am; the Cubs were actually San Diego’s first playoff opponent, all the way back in 1984. Neither of those teams had too much staying power, but surely you’ve heard about Rick Sutcliffe becoming the greatest midseason trade acquisition ever, or the Iron Claw-like litany of personal tragedies that befell members of that Padres team later on. Tony Gwynn led a late comeback off Sutcliffe in the decisive game, and the Padres won the first pennant in franchise history.

The winner of this series will have quite a bit more work to do before it can start thinking about a World Series berth. Both of these teams have been locked into Wild Card berths but locked out of a division title for quite some time, which means they’ve flown under the radar to some extent down the stretch. Read the rest of this entry »


A Week of Instructional League Scouting Notes

Mark Zaleski / The Tennessean-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Now that the lower minor leagues’ regular seasons are over, teams have commenced with instructional league activity in a traditional sense, with a select group of players from several of their affiliates working out and scrimmaging at their spring training complexes. While “Bridge League” (the unofficial period of scrimmage activity that occurs after the late-July conclusion of the Complex Level schedule) frequently includes some newly drafted players, most of the rosters are made up of the guys who have been on the complex all year. But once “instructs” begin, the talent and quality of play of these games ascends to a different level as teams test their most interesting young players or get an intimate look at prospects who might be up for a 40-man roster spot during the winter. The snowbirds haven’t returned in full because the weather here in Arizona is still pretty gross, so driving across the metro is easier now than it will be in a few weeks (and during next year’s spring training). For that reason, I decided to focus my early looks on teams based in the western half of the Phoenix metro, farther from the house. Read the rest of this entry »


Mason Miller’s Immaculate Inning: Bigger and Weirder

David Frerker-Imagn Images

In the eighth inning of Wednesday’s 7-5 loss to the Orioles, Padres reliever Mason Miller threw an immaculate inning — nine pitches, three strikeouts. Immaculate innings are rare, but not that rare. Since 2005, we’ve seen 63 immaculate innings in the majors, so around two or three per season. Miller’s is the fourth of 2025, after Cal Quantrill on May 18, Brandon Young on July 8, and Andrew Kittredge on August 6. Immaculate innings are a special treat we get to enjoy from time to time. They happen infrequently enough that they do genuinely feel special, but not so infrequently that every single one demands an article memorializing the event.

Another special treat that I’ve enjoyed recently is attending a concert with my best friend. We don’t live within driving distance of one another, so due to logistical barriers, we’ve only done this four times in the last 10 or so years. So like an immaculate inning, it’s a cool thing that doesn’t happen very often. What makes our concert history extra special is that twice now touring artists have scheduled shows on my birthday — Tame Impala’s Currents Tour in 2016 and Weird Al’s Bigger and Weirder Tour this year. And what makes Miller’s immaculate inning extra special is that he threw nothing but sliders. Trust me, you’ll see how these two things are connected in a minute, but first more about all those sliders.

If you know anything about Mason Miller, it’s probably that he fires fastballs past hitters at roughly 2,700 giga-miles per hour, which means you know that his primary pitch is not a slider — it’s his fire-breathing fastball. This season Miller is throwing his slider around 45% of the time and his fastball the other 55% of the time, with the very occasional changeup sprinkled in. In his major league career, Miller has appeared in 146 innings in which he has faced at least three batters. He had not gone Oops! All Sliders in any of them prior to Wednesday. And he only topped 65% sliders in four of those innings. His next-highest single-inning slider ratio is 85%, thrown in the final inning of a start against the Mariners in May of 2023. His slider-heavy final frame was the capper on a seven-inning no-hit outing. Read the rest of this entry »


Watch Those Fingers! A Roundup of Recent Injuries Among the NL Contenders

David Frerker, Brad Penner, and Michael McLoone – Imagn Images

It’s been a rough season for Francisco Alvarez — and specifically his hands. The 23-year-old catcher fractured a hamate in his left hand while taking batting practice on March 8, and after undergoing surgery, missed the first four weeks of the regular season. He scuffled upon returning, to the point that the Mets optioned him to Triple-A Syracuse in late June, but particularly since returning in late July, he hit well until he sprained the ulnar collateral ligament of his right thumb (as opposed to the UCL of his elbow) while making a headfirst slide on August 17. The injury, which requires surgery to fix, appeared to be season-ending, but to the Mets’ surprise, Alvarez has been able to swing the bat without pain, so he began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Syracuse on Wednesday. Unfortunately, in his third plate appearance of the game, he was hit on the left pinkie by an 89-mph sinker and had to leave the game.

Alvarez, who also missed seven weeks last year due to surgery to repair a torn UCL in his left thumb, was sent for testing after being removed. At this writing, the Mets have yet to reveal his prognosis, but this may set back his return, and he’ll still need another surgery this offseason. When available, he’s been one of the Mets’ more productive hitters, a big step up from the team’s other catchers on the offensive side. In 56 games, he’s hit for a career high 125 wRC+ (.265/.349/.438) with seven homers in 209 plate appearances, good for 1.4 WAR. Luis Torrens, who hit well while serving as the team’s regular catcher during Alvarez’s early-season absence, has slumped to the point that he’s batting .218/.282/.320 (73 wRC+) in 245 PA, and third-stringer Hayden Senger has been even less productive, hitting .180/.227/.197 (22 wRC+) in 67 PA.

[Update: On Thursday afternoon, Alvarez revealed that his pinkie is fractured. He said he hopes to play again this season, but a timeline for that has yet to be determined.]

The Mets, who are now 72-61, just swept a three-game series against the Phillies (76-57) at Citi Field to pull within four games of the NL East leaders. They’ve won eight of their last 11 games after losing 14 of 16 from July 28 to August 15, a skid that bumped them down to third in the NL Wild Card race, though they now have a 4 1/2-game cushion over the Reds (68-66). They’ve got some other injuries that could affect their drive for a playoff spot, but in that, they’re not alone. What follows here is a roundup of fairly recent injuries among NL contenders, some that slipped through the cracks in our coverage during recent weeks and others that merit mention so long as we’re on the topic; an alarming number of these involve fingers. I’ll go division-by-division, and follow this with a similar AL roundup. Read the rest of this entry »


Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week, August 22

Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. August is a month I like to use for rest and recovery. After the chaos of July, there’s a natural lull in the season before the drama of September. Both deadline buyers and sellers are figuring out their new rosters and allocating playing time to new arrivals and minor league call-ups. No race is down to the wire, and yet many races are already decided. That’s a great time to relax – and what I like to do to relax is watch baseball. This week’s set of five things doesn’t have a lot of pivotal plays or playoff squads on the brink. It doesn’t have walk-offs or game-ending defensive plays. It’s just guys doing cool things, and sometimes that’s the best part of baseball. So with a quick programming note – Five Things is off next week while I go to the US Open – and a nod to Zach Lowe of The Ringer, let’s get started.

1. Ultimate Reversals
In an 0-2 count in his first start off the IL, Hunter Greene lost control of a fastball:

Hey, it happens. It was an 0-2 count, so no big deal, get ‘em next pitch. Only, wait, something was going on:

Hit… by pitch? I’m not sure anyone at the plate was sure what happened. J.T. Realmuto said something to umpire Carlos Torres. Torres thought about it and then eventually awarded Realmuto first base. Tyler Stephenson went full John Travolta behind home plate, looking around in vain for someone to make this make sense to him.

How did Reds manager Terry Francona feel about this? The same way I did, and the same way you do right now, presumably:

When the first slow-motion replay came in, everything started to make a little more sense:

Realmuto wasn’t hit by the pitch; his bat was. It’s an easy overturn. Why didn’t anyone notice? Well, Stephenson had his eyes closed and his glove blocked Torres’ view of the butt of Realmuto’s bat. No one noticed the deflection right away either; after all, Stephenson stuck up his glove trying to catch it and the ball landed in the mitt.

The replay review was short and conclusive. The call on the field was overturned; instead of a hit-by-pitch, it was a foul ball. Only, that’s not quite right – there were two strikes. The ball landed in Stephenson’s mitt after making contact with the bat. That’s a textbook foul tip strikeout. Instead of strolling to first base, Realmuto trudged back to the dugout.

There have only been five other HBP-to-strikeout overturns in the replay review era. I watched video of all of them. The one this week was the strangest. Here’s AJ Pollock getting “hit” by Tyler Chatwood in the first one I found:

See the umpire’s quick and decisive reaction? That’s normal. Call a dead ball, determine what happened, point to first to signal a hit-by-pitch – it’s standard operating procedure. Torres didn’t even call a dead ball, because he didn’t realize he needed to.

In fact, I think Realmuto might have inadvertently done this to himself. It’s feasible that if he didn’t say anything to Torres, that would have just been a ball. No one saw the ball deflect off the bat in real time, and it was such a glancing blow that no one seemed to hear it. You can tell because of their reactions; Torres doesn’t call the ball dead right away and Stephenson definitely has no idea what’s going on. Also? Change this rule! That has to be one of the hardest-luck strikeouts of all time.

2. Coordination
Jung Hoo Lee’s second year in San Francisco has gone much better than his first. He’s healthy, for one thing: After an injury limited him to just 158 plate appearances in 2024, he’s been active for the entire season and has already crested 500 plate appearances this year. He’s improved across the board offensively, flashing gap-to-gap power and consistently working counts and avoiding strikeouts. It’s been more of a struggle defensively, where he’s been somewhere between blah (per OAA) and quite poor (per DRS and Baseball Prospectus’ DRP). It’s tough having your fielding compared to the ridiculous monsters who roam center these days. But how many of them can do this?

What’s that, you say? That was a standard play, catch probability 99%? The wind looked a little swirly, which made it slightly more difficult, but you’re not wrong. Lee took a meandering route to the ball and still had time to flatten his route and more or less come to a complete stop to judge the wind; he probably could have caught it standing up if he’d gotten a better read initially. That’s all true! But wait for the reveal:

It’s like a magic trick, pulling a coin out from behind a kindergartener’s ear only in baseball form. Oh, you’d expect the ball to be in my glove? No, of course it’s somewhere else. See, the ball actually kicked out of Lee’s glove, but he made a spectacular instinctual adjustment:

Lee’s right leg made that entire play. He lunged and missed with his hand, the normal thing you’d use to catch a baseball. For most players, that would be the end of the play. But Lee somehow flipped his hips to get in position, drove his right knee past the ball without bumping it away, and then pincered it into the hollow between his knees to protect it from falling to the ground.

Don’t try this at home. I say that out of personal experience – my dog looked at me funny for about five minutes while I tried to replicate it on my living room floor. There’s no practicing or teaching this. No one works on it in spring training. For nearly every outfielder in baseball, the play would have been over after it kicked out of their glove. Lee might be a below-average outfielder when you take the sum of his defensive contributions into consideration. His coordination and ability to make last-minute adjustments, though? It’s certifiably excellent.

3. Necessity
Ryan O’Hearn doesn’t face lefties. In his entire Orioles career – 1,223 plate appearances – he faced only 137 lefties. It’s no secret why: He posted an 89 wRC+ against them, as compared to a 126 wRC+ against righties. That’s a huge platoon split, more than double the major league average for lefties. The O’s had a surfeit of righty platoon options, and even this year, when O’Hearn put up his best season yet, they generally didn’t let him face lefties, and he hit poorly against them when he did get the chance.

In theory, the Padres are similarly capable of sheltering O’Hearn. They’ve only given him six plate appearances against lefties, and they’ve pretty much all been out of necessity rather than desire. Your bench isn’t always as full as you’d like, the other team can sneak in lefty relievers at almost any time late in the game, and no hitter avoids facing lefties altogether. In fact, the Padres have given him those opportunities at about the same rate as the O’s. But let’s just say he’s not hitting southpaws quite so poorly with San Diego:

That’s 4-5 with a walk, and all four hits have gone for extra bases. It’s far too small of a sample to make substantive conclusions, of course, but O’Hearn has already socked as many homers against lefties in a Padres uniform as he did in Baltimore, where he played for 20 times as long.

The last one, a two-run blast against All-Star Robbie Ray, came after Mike Shildt pinch-hit with O’Hearn against a lefty. It wasn’t exactly a normal decision – Jake Cronenworth was hit in the hand in his previous plate appearance, and while he played the field afterwards, he didn’t appear to be capable of swinging a bat. Since the Padres had already juiced their lineup with righties against Ray, the only bench hitter with a platoon advantage was Elias Díaz, and your light-hitting backup catcher isn’t a real pinch-hitting option. O’Hearn was the logical play even if “pinch-hit with the guy we never let face lefties against a dominant lefty” isn’t normally a good decision.

So, is O’Hearn suddenly a lefty killer? I don’t think so, but I definitely hope so. The Padres are going to run into many more chances to either let O’Hearn hit against a lefty or replace him with an inferior hitter (Jose Iglesias? Bryce Johnson?) who stands on the other side of the plate. Previously, the decision has rarely been interesting – get the righty in there. In the last 20 days, though, O’Hearn is making it hard to pull him from the game. Yes, it’s six plate appearances. Sure, that’s not how sample sizes work. But since coming to the Padres, he’s slashing .800/.833/2.400 against lefties. Can you really turn that down in favor of Candelita? It’s gonna be a great subplot to watch down the stretch.

4. Thievery
Alejandro Kirk doesn’t steal bases. In his entire minor league career, he swiped five bags, all in 2018 and 2019. He’s never so much as attempted one at the major league level. He’s listed at 5-foot-8 and 245 pounds, kind of the reverse of a prototypical base stealing frame. His 24.2 ft/sec sprint speed is in the second percentile league-wide. Could you, personally, beat Alejandro Kirk in a footrace? Probably not, but it’s at least closer than it would be for pretty much every other major leaguer.

Anyway, here’s Alejandro Kirk stealing a base:

This play was a perfect storm of pro-stealing factors. With only one out and a runner on third in a one-run game, the Rangers infield was all the way in. That meant Jake Burger couldn’t hold Kirk on first base because he was off the line and on the grass. It wasn’t a big deal, though. Is there a runner less important to hold on than the guy with 2,000 plate appearances and zero stolen base attempts? Meanwhile, with Daulton Varsho on third base, Kyle Higashioka had no interest in throwing down to second and letting Varsho maraud home. The Rangers knew there was no throw coming to second. Look at their positioning with the ball already in Higashioka’s glove:

In other words, they were more or less daring Kirk to go. Why wouldn’t they? Kirk batted 1,946 times before attempting his first steal. Second place in the majors for most plate appearances without attempting one? Spencer Horwitz with 723. The post-integration record for career plate appearances without a stolen base attempt is 2,224, by Johnny Estrada from 2001-2008. Very few batters reach 1,000 plate appearances without trying to steal at least once. Kirk was a true standout in his field of standing around.

Now he’s got a swipe in his back pocket. Estrada’s record is safe; the odds of Horwitz getting to that milestone are negligible. He’s not even a catcher! But more importantly, Kirk is on the board. He tried to act casual after stealing the base, but the crowd wouldn’t let it go (the Jays posted that it was his first career stolen base on the scoreboard). You know you’ve done something fun when you get Max Scherzer to react like this:

5. Pratfalls With Happy Endings
If your only understanding of outfield defense came from this column, you might think that falling over was a key part of the job:

Sorry for the camera angle; it’s all both broadcasts had. But in any case, what a disaster. You can’t fall down there. That’s Alek Freaking Thomas on the basepaths. He’s maniacally aggressive and has the speed to make it work; he’s 10 runs above average on the basepaths in his career even without taking stolen bases (he’s not a great base stealer) into account. He was on his horse right away and had eyes on home plate. Watch Thomas clock what’s going on in center, pick up third base coach Shaun Larkin waving him on, and book it home:

Wait, what? He got thrown out?!? Yeah, and by a lot, as it turns out. See, Angel Martínez fell, but it was fairly graceful as falls go. He didn’t lose the ball, didn’t panic, and was back on his feet quickly to toss in the relay. It took him about a second-and-a-half to recover, which isn’t great, but it’s a lot better than staying down or losing his grip:

That was a decent relay throw, perfectly on line but without a ton of vigor. Martínez has a cannon arm, but he didn’t show it off there; he was just thinking of getting the ball to the infield. When Gabriel Arias received the throw, though, he had maximum effort on his mind. Arias has an incredibly strong throwing arm, too. He knew there was going to be a play at the plate. He received the relay throw while already stepping into a throw home:

Don’t overlook Bo Naylor’s role in that play. The throw beat Thomas by plenty, but it reached Naylor on a short hop. Without perfect concentration, that ball would probably skip away. It hit so close to Naylor that he had to make a first-base-style scoop:

Meanwhile, though, even with an outfielder falling down and then feathering in a relay throw instead of ripping one, Thomas was out by quite a bit. I think I can show you what went wrong. Here’s Thomas with Martínez sprawled out in the outfield:

He’s nowhere near third base. Forget how hard Arias threw the ball on his relay; there aren’t many players who are making it home safely from this position:

The play wasn’t in front of Thomas; he noticed that Martínez fell, but he had to turn his head to run at maximum speed after that. But the timing just wasn’t right for even a fast runner to score. Martínez was throwing the ball in before Thomas reached third base. Arias was releasing it from shortstop before he was halfway home. Major league fielders are great. This just wasn’t a safe time to score, even after Martínez’s stumble.

It’s perhaps not a coincidence that Shaun Larkin isn’t coaching third base for the Diamondbacks anymore. Manager Torey Lovullo removed him after this very game, in fact. It was a straw-that-broke-the-camel’s-back situation, but I think it’s emblematic of how hard it is to wrap your head around just how athletic major leaguers are. Angel Martínez was on his back in the outfield, and then he made a natural-looking, low-effort move and just wasn’t. He didn’t have to make a hero throw. He didn’t have to try to whip it home on the fly to make up for his stumble. He just kept his head about him and let his natural coordination plus his team’s competence make up for the trip. Martínez has been quite bad in the outfield this year. He’s a shortstop by trade and hasn’t adapted to the broad expanses of grass all that cleanly. But making an athletic, tumbling play, and having the rest of the Guardians turn it into an out? He looks pretty good doing that.


Is Nick Pivetta a Sorcerer or Something?

Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Here’s Nick Pivetta’s signature pitch:

Or maybe it’s this one, complete with a skip-off:

OK, the man just likes skipping:

You might wonder why all of his signature pitches are tossed down the middle for called strikeouts. That’s because Pivetta is the league leader in a statistic I didn’t know I loved until I looked it up: called strikeouts on pitches right down the pipe. He’s the 2025 leader. He’s the leader over the past five years, in fact. Keep your reality-distorting sweepers and letter-high four-seamers; Pivetta gets the job done more simply.

This feels like an impossible skill to cultivate. You hear all the time about pitchers going into a lab somewhere and adding velocity or spin. New pitches? They’re a dime a dozen these days. A starter who hasn’t added a sweeper and cutter sticks out like a sore thumb now that technology and training make it easier than ever to branch out. Every year, the sliders get slidier, the curveballs get curvier, and the fastballs get faster. Meanwhile, Pivetta throws 94-mph “heaters” down the middle for strike three. How?? Read the rest of this entry »


The Revamped Padres Have Surged into First Place in the NL West

Robert Edwards-Imagn Images

Don’t look now, but for the first time in three and a half months, the NL West has a new leader. While the Dodgers have struggled to the point of face-planting, the Padres have surged, producing a 10-game swing in the NL West standings since July 3 thanks in large part to a dominant bullpen and some timely upgrades ahead of the July 31 trade deadline. The Southern California rivals are set to square off six times in the next 10 days, starting with a weekend series in Los Angeles — but the Padres will be without staff ace Michael King, who landed on the injured list on Thursday due to left knee inflammation.

After notching 93 victories last season — the second-highest total in franchise history — and making the playoffs for the third year out of five, the Padres bolted out of the gate in 2025, winning 15 of their first 19 games and spending much of April leading the division. They fell out of the top spot on April 26, but spent the next six weeks or so within striking distance before a 13-15 June dragged them down. Both the Padres and Giants were nine games out of first at the close of play on July 3, but since then, San Diego has put up the NL’s second-best record behind only Milwaukee (28-5), while Los Angeles and San Francisco are tied for the league’s third-worst record, half a game better than lowly Colorado and Washington (both 12-22):

Padres and Dodgers Before and After July 3
Padres W-L W% RS RA Pyth% 1-run 1-Run W%
Thru July 3 46-40 .535 4.09 3.97 .515 18-14 .563
Since July 4 23-12 .657 4.49 3.31 .607 7-2 .778
Change +.122 0.40 -0.66 +.092 +.215
Dodgers W-L W% RS RA Pyth% 1-Run 1-Run W%
Thru July 3 56-32 .636 5.61 4.48 .602 16-9 .640
Since July 4 12-21 .364 4.00 4.61 .436 3-9 .250
Change -.272 -1.61 +0.13 -.166 -.390

The Padres took over first place on Wednesday afternoon in emphatic fashion, scoring seven second-inning runs off control-challenged Giants stater Kai-Wei Teng and cruising to an 11-1 victory. With that, they completed a three-game sweep, extended their winning streak to five games, and claimed their 14th victory in their last 17 games dating back to July 26. Later that night, the Dodgers coughed up a 5-2 lead, allowing the Angels to sweep them in Anaheim and knock them a full game out of first. Read the rest of this entry »