Archive for Prospects

Turang has two profile-carrying attributes in his ball/strike recognition and defense, while the rest of the profile struggles because he doesn’t square balls up very well. He has a chance to be a plus defender who reaches base a lot, which is basically what J.P. Crawford‘s skill base was, even when he was struggling. It’s possible that upper-level pitching challenges Turang with impunity and his walk rates tank, at which point I’ll move off him. If his frame, which is broad-shouldered and quite projectable, fills out and suddenly there’s relevant pop, he’s an everday player.

Feliciano hit .273/.324/.477 with 19 homers as a 20-year-old in the Carolina League, a level he was semi-repeating, as he’d spent about a month there in 2018 but missed much of the rest of that year due to injury. He is one of the more talented offensive catching prospects in the minors thanks to a potent combination of power and barrel feel. When Feliciano puts balls in play, they’re very often scorched — just under 50% of the balls he hit last year entered play at 95 mph or above, which is a 65 on the 20-80 scale if you curve out big leaguers’ hard hit rates. All of that seems likely to be hampered by Feliciano’s hedonistic approach. The dude likes to swing, and has only walked at a 6% clip as a pro.

Scouts also have tepid opinions about his defense, but let’s remember that he’s essentially a JUCO-aged player who missed a year of development due to injury. I anticipate some defensive improvement, and think we’ll have a electronic strike zone a year or two after Feliciano hits the 40-man, which will help him stay back there. His approach is kind of scary and there’s a chance his contact profile bottoms out against big league pitchers who prey on his swing-happy nature, but I have Feliciano evaluated as an everyday catcher based on how much power I think he’ll hit for, even if he’s running OBPs close to .310.

For the second straight year, Lutz got off to a slow start before righting the ship and hitting .271/.354/.446 from May onward. His skillset remains the same: big power, some stiffness and limited bat control, and an ability to crush lefties. Lutz’s overall performance in two full pro seasons has been just shy of what I’m comfortable with 50 FV’ing but he’s been very young for his level and only took three at-bats off of pitchers who were younger than him last year. He has a good shot to be an everyday corner outfielder who hits 25 homers annually.

Small is a mechanical doppelgänger for Clayton Kershaw and, like late-career Kershaw, he’s blowing fastballs with mediocre velocity past opposing hitters because he hides the ball well and creates pure backspin, helping it carry at the top of the strike zone. Small has a bat-missing changeup but needs to find a better breaking ball to really max out as a prospect. He could be a 50 FV, league-average starter if he does, but otherwise is likely to slot toward the back of a rotation.

Ashby has nasty, left-handed stuff and reliever’s control. He was up to 94 during his first pro jaunt in 2018, then was up to 96 last year as a starter, velo I think will climb in the bullpen. His two breaking balls need better demarcation, but they each flash plus and Ashby will even show you an average changeup on occasion. Since he has viable starter’s stuff, it’s logical for the Brewers to continue developing him in that role just in case he develops starter’s control later than is typical, and also to refine that secondary stuff with more reps than he’d get in the bullpen. Coming off his age-21 season, Ashby was on pace to reach Double-A during the back half of this year before the world turned upside down. He has a shot to debut in 2021, especially if Milwaukee ‘pens him.

Unsigned by the Padres after the 2018 draft, Kelly’s velocity spiked into the mid-90s in 2019. He’ll bump 98 and has a big, athletic frame and fluid delivery, but Milwaukee will need to develop the rest. Fastball location seemed to be the developmental focus for Kelly after the draft. In both my look and those of several scouts, he featured something like 80% fastballs. Teams have disparate opinions of Kelly. Some are intrigued by the canvas he presents, while others think painting it will be a chore. He need only develop one pitch to be a power reliever, which I think is pretty realistic.

Lazar sits just 86-89 but his deceptive, funky, over-the-top delivery combined with the extreme length of his stride down the mound (nearly 7.4 feet of extension, among the top 50 in all the minors) make him an uncomfortable at-bat for opposing hitters. If there’s an Oliver Drake delivery comp in the minors, it’s Lazar (though he gets much lower to the ground), and like Drake, he can somehow turn over a changeup from this arm slot. We’ve seen fastballs thrive despite mediocre velocity before. Often it’s from someone who has an extremely vertical arm slot, like Drake or Josh Collmenter, or huge extension and a flat approach angle, like Yusmeiro Petit, guys who can successfully remove the table cloth without disturbing the place settings. Lazar has both of these, and has a bat-missing changeup, too. I’m not as confident in the breaking stuff, which often finishes high in the zone — it’s that aspect of the skillset I’m scared will be exposed by upper-level hitting. Even if they don’t develop further, Lazar has two legit weapons that would work fine in relief, and he throws strikes at such a high rate that he could be a multi-inning piece. Based on how Milwaukee deployed him last year — 10 starts, nine relief outings, highly variable pitch counts — it appears he’s being groomed for a non-traditional role of some kind.

Garcia broke his ankle and didn’t play in games at all last year, so other than that, my report on him remains the same. Garcia had an eye-opening 2018 instructional league. His range, hands, actions and arm are all easy fits at shortstop, and he could be a plus glove there at peak. His entire offensive profile depends on his frame filling out. Garcia’s lack of strength is evident with the bat in his hands, but you can go kind of nuts projecting on much of his skillset, including the speed and arm strength, because he so clearly has lots of physical growth on the horizon and is an above-average athlete. He’s so young that he wasn’t even eligible to sign immediately on July 2nd because he was still 15. Were he a domestic high schooler, he wouldn’t have been draft eligible until 2020, and he’s still just shy of 18. His development may initially be slow, but he has significant literal and figurative growth potential and a non-zero shot to be a well-rounded everyday shortstop at peak.

Ray has pretty severe strikeout issues that, at nearly age 26, are ridiculous to expect him to remedy. Instead I think what lies ahead for him is a career similar to Brian Goodwin’s, a whiff-prone lefty power stick with a good approach.

Perez is a physical, lefty-hitting outfielder with a swing that is compact but still has some lift, especially to his pull side. He runs well, has advanced feel to hit, and is generating more power on contact than is typical for a hitter his age. He doesn’t have big, frame-based power projection but might hit enough that it doesn’t matter. He’s likely four or five years out, but has the tools of an everyday corner guy if, in fact, the bat is as advanced as it appeared after he signed.

Rasmassen became famous for some dominant starts in college but had medical issues that led to a failed physical after the 2017 draft and two subsequent Tommy John surgeries. His velocity is back after the second of those, comfortably in the upper-90s during what have primarily been 40 to 50-pitch outings, mostly as a starter. He was 96-99 out of the bullpen this spring. He’s a 40+ FV relief prospect on talent, the second or third best guy in a good bullpen (a set-up type for the traditionalists), but I’ve got to account for his injury history, perhaps more so than for all but a handful of pitchers in the minors, and so he’s shaded down a little bit.

Brown was Milwaukee’s 2018 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, then had such a rough 2019 that he was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft. It’s worth noting that while Brown had no velo decrease from the year before, his fastball spin rate dropped from 2300 rpm on average to 2000 rpm. Drops in spin rate seem to occur as part of injury-related stuff regression, but that’s often paired with a downtick in velo, and there wasn’t one here, nor was there an IL stint. Instead, it’s possible a change was made to intentionally reduce Brown’s fastball spin, since his arm slot and fastball spin axis are more conducive of sinker movement. The point is, there was a change amid Brown’s struggles, something that may be undone or further adjusted. It’s why I’m staying on him despite the age and the offseason indication (via the Rule 5) that a big chunk of the industry is not. I have Brown projected in middle relief.

I was skeptical of Gray’s hit tool when he was an amateur but because he’s missed so much time and dealt with the physical aftermath of pneumonia (2018) and a severe hamstring strain (2019), it’s premature to declare his hit tool specious. Gray has big present power, power projection, and the instincts to stay in center field despite not being a real burner. He’s a high variance prospect but still has everyday talent.

A senior sign reliever coming out of Virginia, Bettinger experienced a velo bump in his second pro season and also developed better movement separation between his curveball and slider, which has enabled both of them to play better. He still only sits 89-92 but he gets way, way down the mound and generates about seven feet of extension, causing his heater the jump on hitters and create flatter approach angle. His fastball is also spin-efficient and has plus vertical movement. He’s gone from elder org-filler to back of the rotation prospect in half a season.

Andrews is a plus on-mound athlete with a plus changeup and breaking ball. In 2019, the Brewers let him return to playing some center field and take a few dozen at-bats (he played two ways in college and barely ever struck out), which actually went pretty well (.333/.391/.381 in 70 plate appearances). He’s a great athlete and has surprisingly good instincts in the outfield, though he’s not likely to play a real role as a position player. Instead Andrews projects as a middle reliever, but his unique blend of secondary skills may enable the Brewers to use him creatively. The new three-batter minimum rules make that harder.

Rodriguez is a plus-plus-running center field prospect with a slash-and-dash approach at the plate and outstanding feel for contact. He is currently unable to turn on pitches and do any real offensive damage, but his defensive profile, speed, and hand-eye coordination give him a chance to be an everyday player if those skills are all plus at maturity. Barring a swing and approach change that better enables him to turn on pitches, I think a fourth outfielder role is more likely, but that’s what I thought about Luis Arraez, and Rodriguez is a better defensive player.

File throws strikes at will and has already reached Double-A because of it. He hides the ball really well and it helps his otherwise pedestrian fastball sneak past hitters at the top of the zone for the occasional swing and miss, while his two-plane curveball also garners the occasional swing and miss. He’s a high-probability fifth starter who might generate more WAR than is typical of someone with this level of stuff because File works so efficiently.

Henry’s groundball rates have now fallen for two consecutive years, reinforcing optimism that he’ll get to enough of his considerable raw power in games to play some sort of big league role. A bat-first high school catcher who was considered a long shot to stay behind the plate, Henry has made sufficient developmental progress as a defender and now projects to stay back there, especially since most of the industry thinks arm strength is likely to drive catchers’ defensive profiles once we have robozones. Henry’s peripherals are scary — about 30% strikeouts, 7% walks, and he was hit by pitches nearly as much as he walked last year — but as long as he continues to actualize that raw power in games, I think the total package fits in a backup role.

The owner of one of the most entertaining hacks on the planet, Dilly takes big, uncompromising swings from both sides of the plate. He hit .286/.419/.505 at Ole Miss while walking at an 18% clip. Though he caught some in college, Dillard played mostly left field and first base, and projects to do the same in pro ball. Because he’s so committed to hitting nothing but tanks (Dillard’s footwork is actually pretty conservative as a left-handed hitter, he just has big time uppercut), he’s probably going to swing and miss in pro ball more often than he did in college, but he’ll likely reach base and hit for enough power to play some kind of corner role.

Williams has been hurt a lot and is now 25 and still walking lots of batters, but his heater touched 100 last year and his breaking stuff fits in a relief role. He’s big league ready.

In high school (he and Lutz were on the same Area Codes team), Hamilton was a terrific defensive shortstop with some feel to hit, but some teams didn’t think his narrow frame would fill out in a way that generated relevant power, so he ended up matriculating to Texas. He had a rough freshman year, then rebounded as a sophomore and was in the third to fifth round mix following his summer on the Cape. Then Hamilton tore his Achilles tendon and missed not only his junior year at Texas, but the entire summer as well. His first pro at-bats came during 2020 big league spring training. He looked considerably stronger coming out of rehab and I think he has a shot to have a breakout 2020 if given the opportunity to play.

Castaneda pitched in relief during the summer and was stretched out as a four-to-five inning starter during the Fall League, where he continued to have success. His forkball is an obvious out pitch and he held his average velo in the longer Fall League outings, but the get-me-over curveball only works situationally (often to garner strike one) because it’s easy to identify out of his hand. As such, I think Castaneda profiles as a reliever, long-term.

Kahle is a thick-bodied catcher with limited tools, but he is great at diagnosing balls and strikes (he had twice as many walks as strikeouts as a junior at Washington) and his approach should allow him to hit for enough pull power to make a 40-man.

A 2018 seventh round senior sign, Fry’s combination of power and a chance to play several positions (including catcher) makes him an interesting potential bench piece. He seemed to be undergoing a swing and approach change late last year, as he was a dead pull hitter for all of 2019, and struggled to turn on pitches in the fall, instead peppering the opposite field gap.

Supak is a strike-throwing backend starter who has now had success up through Double-A. His velocity was down a bit last year but his fastball has a lot of spin for how slow it is, as well as other traits that bolster it. He’s a bigger-bodied guy whose athletic longevity is a question.

Bello signed for an under slot $550,000 as a second rounder. He’s a polished, contact-oriented center field prospect without typical big league physicality. He has several tweener traits, and might end up as a bench or platoon outfielder. A path toward everyday reps involves Bello developing a plus bat or glove, which are both in the realm of possibility as he has great breaking ball recognition and bat control, and good instincts in center field. He is one of several Hawaiian players drafted by Milwaukee since 2014 (Kodi Medeiros, Jordan Yamamoto, KJ Harrison, Kekai Rios).

Howell was a pleasant, toolsy, post-draft surprise whose combination of speed and crude bat control was too much for AZL defenses to deal with. He went to Low-A for his first full season and had less offensive impact, but still projects as a speedy, up-the-middle bench player.

Taylor made a relevant swing change in 2018 and probably would have exhausted his rookie eligibility last year had he not dealt with injuries, which have been pervasive throughout his career. He has bench outfield tools and is big league ready.

Perdomo was in Toronto’s system for seven seasons, then left for Milwaukee on a minor league deal after 2018. He had posted gaudy strikeout rates before then, but never in the 34-35% range for an extended stretch. He struck out 14.33 per nine at Triple-A, doing most of the damage with his fastball (a 17% swinging strike rate), which sits at about 93 and touches 97. He’s on Milwaukee’s 40-man and likely to play a role this year. I have him in as an up/down reliever.

Milwaukee’s 2019 sixth rounder is a four-pitch lefty with a funky, noisy delivery and a breaking ball-heavy approach to pitching. His slider has length, his curveball has depth, and Bennett sits 90-93 with the heater. It’s a backend starter mix with a delivery that likely pushes Bennett to the bullpen.

Long a notable amateur prospect due to his projectable, wide receiverish frame, Ward has made mechanical progress and is already much more of a refined baseball player than he was as a senior in high school. He’s still mostly a lottery ticket frame you’re hoping grows into big power, and even if he does, there are still swing plane issues the Brewers need to address, but Ward’s underlying skills have started to develop.

Ramirez is a super loose and fluid (but also inconsistent) righty with big arm strength and some breaking ball feel. He projects in the bullpen, where there may be even more velo.

Abreu has an interesting power/speed combination, which the Brewers sent him to the Fall League to stress test last year after he missed most of 2019 due to injury. He didn’t look great, and has strikeout and swing efficacy issues undercutting his power. Barring a significant improvement in his bat-to-ball performance, he’s unlikely to be added to the 40-man or Rule 5’d this offseason, but he is a 20-year-old with relevant tools and a chance to play a premium defensive position, so he’s still in this tier for now.

Webb was a rare draft-eligible freshman because he had Tommy John as a senior in high school, then missed all of what would have been his freshman year at South Carolina while he recovered; he was a 21-year-old redshirt freshman when he was drafted in 2016. His measurables don’t properly capture his size; his broad shoulders mimic the shape and proportions of a generic minor league batter’s eye. He has a mid-90s fastball and upper-70s curveball that pair well together, as the latter has sharp, vertical action and bat-missing depth when he’s healthy. In 2019, he wasn’t. After a rocky start and demotion to A-ball, he was shelved for two months and returned as a reliever, rehabbing in rookie ball late in the year. Milwaukee has stubbornly continued to develop him as a starter but I think he fits as an up/down reliever.

Robinson works in the low-90s with a flat-planed fastball that plays at the top of the zone, and a snap dragon, 12-to-6 curveball. He’s not that projectable, but he’s athletically built and has a good arm action. He needs to refine his strike-throwing pretty badly and it would be nice if he ended up throwing harder, but the repertoire works well together, and I think he has a good shot to be a big league bullpen piece.

Stephenson puts on quite a show during batting practice but has a more contact-oriented approach in games. Per a source, he has one of the better in-zone contact rates in the minors, which is quite the opposite of how most of the amateur side of the industry thought he would develop as a pro. He’s still a fringy receiver with a big arm, but that may become less of a problem soon. Barring a tweak that brings more of his raw power to the party, Stephenson looks like a solid everyday catcher and he’d be one of the few prep catching draftees to actually pan out.

Greene is a generational on-mound athlete whose 2018 season ended with an elbow sprain that eventually led to Tommy John. A strong two-month run of starts in the early summer culminated in a seven-inning shutout (2 H, 0 BB, 10 K, and all in just 69 pitches) on July 2 at Lake County, and a Futures Game appearance. Eleven days later, Greene’s season was over. He had a PRP injection and rehabbed the sprained UCL in Arizona with broad plans to start throwing during the winter, but he ended up having surgery and did not pitch in 2019. His pre-injury report was heavy on velo and secondary projection, and it was (and is) especially important for him to find a better breaking ball, which he seemed to be doing before the injury.

Between his lack of reps during the ’16-’17 Series Nacional in Cuba and the arduous process of defecting, followed by slowly working out for teams, then waiting for the 2018 season to start, Garcia played very little baseball for the several months leading up to last season and it showed when he finally put on a uniform. Then he had a breakout 2019 in the Florida State League (.280/.343/.436) and was watched closely by the whole industry throughout an Arizona Fall League assignment. If Garcia’s tools were installed in a 21-year-old college shortstop, he’d be very famous. Power, speed, arm strength, and flashy defense are all here, and Garcia has a chance to be a star if his approach isn’t his undoing.

Drafted and unsigned by the Pirates as a 2016 first rounder, Lodolo took a bit of a circuitous route to the top of the 2019 class. He had iffy freshman and sophomore years but flashed a tantalizing blend of stuff and feel at times, keeping him in the first round mix despite inconsistent performance. Everything clicked for him during an early-season college tournament in Houston, where Lodolo worked in the mid-90s with a plus breaking ball and changeup.

He’s more apt to throw his curveball for strikes than bury it in the dirt for swings and misses, but he showed better grasp of the latter late in the year. While Lodolo will sometimes go entire outings without throwing that many changeups, there have been stretches where it’s his best pitch. His frame is ideal, his delivery elegant and repeatable. The stuff isn’t dominant, but some teams are still projecting on it because of how big and lean Lodolo’s frame is, which makes them think it might be eventually.

India was hit by two pitches last April — one struck his wrist, the other got him in the back — and the Reds claim that though he didn’t miss any time during the season, his wrist bothered him all year and could have been to blame for his lackluster 2019 power output. He looked aloof and sluggish in the Fall League, where he started 2-for-35 and was eventually shut down due to continued wrist issues. He has generally shown a well-rounded skillset that includes good feel for contact and defense.

How teams value India varies depending on how they contextualize the wrist injury. It could be viewed as a short-term issue that obscured his physical talent in 2019, but some teams are scared by it being described as “nagging” and having ended his season, while others just think India’s junior year at Florida (the only time he’s ever hit for real power), is the anomaly, and don’t have him projected as an everyday player either way. I think that, primarily via the contact skills, India profiles as a second-division regular (45 FV) at third, but if the wrist is truly why the power hasn’t played, or should he eventually prove capable of playing second base (which is what the Fall League assignment was for), he has a great chance to be a 50.

Perhaps no high school pitching prospect from the 2018 draft has moved toward the “low variance” end of the spectrum quite as quickly as Richardson, which is especially surprising considering he was a two-way prospect for quite a while. Once he started touching 96 and 97 early in his senior season, he moved into the second round picture as a pitcher. His stuff dipped a bit before the draft and, later in the summer, the Reds shut him down due to elbow soreness. He pitched at 89-93 all last year and made a Midwest League-leading 26 starts without incident.

Richardson found ways to get outs with diluted stuff last year and then arrived to 2020 camp throwing really hard, back into the mid-90s. He’s athletic, new to pitching, competitive, often emotional and demonstrative on the mound and responded to adversity in his first season, a potential 2021 Top 100 arm.

Siani is fast and his defensive instincts are excellent, so he has a chance to be one of the better defensive center fielders in baseball at peak. On offense, Siani creates a lot of infield action (oppo liner pokes and slaps, high infield chops, some bunts) but probably won’t grow into relevant power. I have him projected as a low-end regular in center field based on the quality of his defense, but I think he’ll end up hitting toward the bottom of a lineup.

He’ll likely wind up at first base eventually, but in the interim the industry is still searching for where on the defensive spectrum it might be able to shoehorn Callihan in an effort to make him as valuable a prospect as possible. He’s mostly played third base, but there were some pre-draft calls for him to catch, and the Reds gave him post-draft reps at second. The bat is the carrying tool, of course. Callihan was one of the most polished (and oldest) high school hitters in the 2019 class, and performed against his elite peers on the showcase circuit. To get to all of the raw power, he probably needs to improve his feel for lifting the ball, either naturally via reps or with an explicit swing change. That’s especially true should he need to move to first sooner than later. It’s a scary defensive profile and Callihan’s age takes away from some of my confidence in the bat, but I still think it’s a high-probability hit tool with an outside shot of standing at second base.

Santillan’s strike-throwing regressed to his career norms in 2019 and his velocity is now squarely in the low-90s. He was also put on the IL twice with shoulder and triceps injuries. It’s possible a bullpen move will cause Santillan’s high school and early pro velo to resurface and he could pitch in leveraged relief, but if he continues to start, he’s looking more like a backend guy than a potential mid-rotation piece.

Hinds is a massive third baseman who had the most raw power in the 2019 draft’s high school class, but there are significant concerns about his hit tool. Players this size typically move to the outfield, and considering how slow Hinds’ development might be paced due to the contact issues, he might be out there before he reaches the bigs. He has star-level talent, but is a very risky type of prospect.

Fairchild’s swing has a little more going on now than it did while he was in college, but it’s still pretty simplistic relative to a lot of other hitters’. Once extremely stationary, he now has a baby leg kick and is actually loading his hands. His groundball rate has dropped from 50% during his first pro season, to 40% during the first half of 2018, to the 30%-37% range in the three half-seasons since then, and somehow his strikeout rate dropped all the way to 12% during his six-week stint at Double-A Chattanooga. I don’t think that’s a sustainable rate but I do think it makes sense that Fairchild would become more comfortable with the swing over time. He doesn’t have overt everyday physical ability but he is a plus athlete who has been able to make mechanical adjustments, so he might yet get better.

Antone’s stuff has been steadily improving since he returned from Tommy John, and he was up to 96 as a starter last year. He goes at hitters with the kitchen sink. His flight of fastballs sits in the 89-93 range, he’ll cut it and sink it. He also has a slider in the 82-84mph range that has really odd angle running away from right-handed hitters, who struggle to pick up Antone. He’ll also drop in an occasional curveball, the changeup lives in the 82-85 range and is viable. He gets ground balls with the fastballs and misses bats with the slider. I think he fits in a multi-inning relief role, maybe the back of a rotation.

Kuhnel wasn’t a top draft prospect coming out of Texas-Arlington; he had a maxed-out, bulky frame, inconsistent command, and just average stuff for a right-handed reliever. In 2018, he took a big step forward. His fastball jumped 3-4 ticks and hit 101, and his slider improved into an above-average pitch, though he really struggled to get it to his glove side last year. He’s a major league-ready power relief prospect.

The Reds skipped Cerda over the AZL and made the Appy League his first domestic assignment. There he struck out a bunch (34% in 165 PA) but also hit for power and walked. Compared to the other young power hitters in this system, Cerda’s approach is by far the most coherent, and he also has the group’s best feel for airborne contact. He’s a three true outcomes right field prospect.

Johnson didn’t play much, or all that well, as a freshman at Georgia and transferred to Chipola for his sophomore season, where he hit .400/.520/.620. Explosive and physical, Johnson has plus bat and foot speed, but limited feel to hit. He’s raw, but that’s to be expected for a switch-hitter this age who barely got at-bats during his age 19 season.

Once an out-of-control prep prospect up to 98 mph, Ashcraft went to Mississippi State, had a pair of hip surgeries, then transferred to UAB. He had a pedestrian 2019 season with the Blazers but lo, Ashcraft has TrackMan-friendly spin rates on his fastball and breaker. His fastball has natural cut at times, but Driveline Baseball has had success getting pitchers like this to pronate better on release and create carry rather than cut, which seems fair to project will happen with Ashcraft now that Driveline’s founder is the team’s pitching coordinator. He could have a breakout 2020 (if he gets the opportunity) and profiles in a power relief role.

The circumstances surrounding his signing bear repeating: Friedl slipped through the cracks as a 2016 draft-eligible player, then blew up as a member of Team USA that summer, and signed with the Reds for $700,000 worth of leftover bonus pool money. From a tools and performance standpoint, Friedl is a low-variance bench outfield prospect.

Even amid a substantial innings increase in 2019, Solomon held mid-90s velo for the entire season. He’s a 50 athlete with a 70 body and can just kind of muscle fastballs and cutters near the zone. Those two pitches might be enough in relief if Solomon’s velo jumps in single-inning outings, but his curveball is serviceable, so there’s a third pitch, and Solomon is a Northeast JUCO arm just a year and a half into his pro career, so some of the pitchability traits might come late. He’s got 40-man quality stuff with some late-bloomer possibility.

Davis had a big pre-draft summer on Cape Cod but blew out just a few starts into his junior year at Santa Barbara. The Reds drafted him and finished his TJ rehab in 2019, then sent him to Billings. Most of his pre-surgery velocity returned and Davis was sitting 91-94 in his first few appearances before touching some 95s later in the summer. More importantly, he returned with two quality breaking balls (he was slider/changeup as an amateur) that have fairly significant projection since one of them is new, and Davis missed a huge chunk of time rehabbing from the TJ.

Pitchers whose best attributes are their command and a changeup often outperform industry expectations, and even though Naughton’s fastball only averaged 89 mph last year, I think he’ll do the same. He’s funky and deceptive, hides the ball well, creates tough angle in on righties’ hands, and then drops that changeup on them. Naughton’s curveball isn’t great, but he can throw it for strikes. I like him in a multi-inning relief role a la Ryan Yarbrough.

Gutierrez is a plus athlete with a four-pitch mix, and after sitting 90-93 last year, he was suddenly sitting 94-96 in one- and two-inning outings this spring prior to the shutdown. He has a drop and drive delivery that creates a really flat approach angle on his fastball, especially at the top of the strike zone, but Gutierrez’s heater currently has other attributes (its spin rate and axis are indicative of sink/tailing action) that don’t suit this style of pitching, and he’s been homer prone throughout his career. There are several potential solutions. He might be able to just bully the extra velocity past hitters in a relief role, or he may eventually lean into the sink/tail aspects of the fastball and work off a two-seamer (Julio Teheran is actually a pretty clean athlete/delivery comp for Gutierrez), or the new dev regime might tweak something — perhaps his hand position or stride direction — to try to shape how the fastball moves.

My high speed video from the spring shows a four-seam grip with pretty lousy seam uniformity and an axis like the one the 2019 data indicates, and Gutierrez was still doing towel drills this spring, so I assume the new dev group hasn’t really touched him yet. Based on his athleticism, arm strength, and the quality of his secondary stuff, I still think Gutierrez has a chance to be an relevant big league arm, but it is kind of scary that he still needs some kind of rebuild at nearly age 25 and his most likely outcome is in relief.

Acquired last summer for Tanner Roark, Hannah is a contact/speed outfield prospect who will have to make more contact than I have projected in order to play an everyday role. He hit .340 in college and has hit .280 in pro ball, his extra-base hit production consisting almost entirely of doubles. I have him as an average center field defender but think he could be plus in left, a diet Brett Gardner profile lacking the elite plate discipline. It’s a bench outfield look.

Medrano was acquired from Texas in exchange for international slot money during the Rangers’ pursuit of Shohei Ohtani. He spent the following two years simmering in advanced rookie ball (first the Appy, then the Pioneer League) as a pretty advanced righty with a good changeup. There’s a chance Medrano ends up with a plus changeup and command, which would make it pretty likely that he pitches in a rotation. If only one of those comes to fruition, then he’s more of a fringe 40-man guy since he probably needs the change to be an out pitch and the command to make the fastball playable.

Hendrix has been the same prospect for a while now: relief only, 93-96, plus breaking ball. The fastball has not played like the velo would indicate it should (only a 5% swinging strike rate on the heater in 2019) and he’s also had some elbow trouble. He’s now on the 40-man and will probably be an up/down taxi squad reliever this year.

Salvador has the potential to wield power lefty bullpen stuff — a riding fastball and hammer curveball — if he can throw harder. He’s only 20 and skinny as a rail, so it’s reasonable to project that he will.

Yang had more walks than strikeouts at UC Santa Barbara and saw a big uptick in power production in his draft year, though he does lack impact raw. He projects as a contact-oriented back up.

Heatherly has had trouble throwing strikes in affiliated ball and he missed almost all of 2019 with a shoulder injury. Catch him on the right day on the back fields and he’s filling the zone with a sinker in the 92-94 range and flashing two above-average secondaries. It’s No. 4/5 starter stuff, but Heatherly has had lots of hiccups and speed bumps since his excellent pre-draft summer.

I think the loose and lanky Peguero has late-budding velocity projection (both his fastball and slider velocity climbed throughout last year). He projects as a slider-slinging reliever with plus command.

Bautista had a rough 2019. He hit .233/.303/.332 in the Midwest League (an 87 wRC+, by far the lowest of his career) and missed nearly a month due to a shoulder injury. He also seemed to regress athletically, and the odd swing he seemed to be succeeding with in the low minors looked more out of place in full-season ball. He was passed over in the Rule 5. I’m still on Bautista to some degree because of his raw power, straightline speed, and previously-evident bat-to-ball skills, but this won’t work unless Bautista becomes much more selective, or undergoes some kind of swing change, or both.

He has experience at third base and might be tried there early on, but I have Triana projected to first base (and relatively soon) based on his immense size and general stiffness. He has gargantuan power, enough to profile at first if he hits, but he’s been seen either in a showcase environment or against much younger competition, so I have skepticism regarding the hit tool that won’t be remedied unless this kid moves through the low minors quickly.

Prior to the shutdown, the Reds had planned to start De Leon in the Triple-A rotation. He was 90-93 as a starter last year (93-96 at his prospect peak) but up to 95 out of the bullpen late in the summer. He’s a spot starter in his final option year.

Zabala has been traded a couple of times (Seattle to Los Angeles for Chase De Jong, then to the Reds for Dylan Floro) and he still throws really hard, but hasn’t missed as many bats as one would think given that velocity.

Santana is a right/right corner power bat with a plus arm. He’s a 40 athlete who may need to move to right field, but regardless of where he ends up on the defensive spectrum, Santana needs to be more selective and lift the ball more consistently if he’s going to tap into all that raw power and play some kind of corner role.

Lantigua’s approach was unhinged last year — 3.4% walk rate, 47% strikeout rate — but he’s got freaky power for a switch-hitter. The only other switch-hitter under 21 to hit a ball 108 mph last year was Wander Franco.

Mey already throws pretty hard for his age and has a great frame, but he has very little feel for his secondaries right now.

Contreras looks great in the uniform, has some pop, and he’s a shot to stay on the left side of the infield based on his arm strength and athleticism, but he is sushi raw as a hitter and was the most mistake-prone defender I saw in the AZL last year. It’s rare to find someone with the athletic capability to play short and a chance to have relevant power, but there’s a big developmental gap to try to close here.

Jones has light tower power and has kept his sizable frame in check enough to have retained at least short-term projection at third base. His surface-level stats are strong, especially the OBP (he boasts a career .409 mark) because Jones walks at a career 17% clip. His splits against lefties are very troubling, such that some of my sources thought it would limit Jones’ role enough to move him toward the back of the overall top 100 list. I think the plate discipline will offset that enough that he’s a corner infield regular with among the highest three true outcomes percentages in the big leagues.

Born and raised to the brink of adolescence in New York, Valera’s family moved to the Dominican Republic when he was 13. Injuries sustained in a car accident necessitated that metal rods be inserted in Valera’s father’s limbs, and the move was a way of providing him physical comfort in a warmer climate. It also meant Valera became an international prospect rather than an American high school draftee, and when he was eligible, he signed with Cleveland for $1.3 million.

As they’ve done with their advanced complex-level hitters in recent years, the Indians sent Valera to the Penn League, which is full of college pitching. He thrived for a month and then started to strike out a lot, whiffing in 28% of plate appearances overall. He has a sweet lefty swing with natural lift and he has considerable present power, but most of the industry sees him as a corner guy who has had strikeout issues the little he’s played away from Goodyear. I like his instincts in center field and think he has a shot to stay there, but teenagers built like this typically do not.

A young, polished, but relatively unexplosive high schooler, Freeman was a bit of a surprise second rounder in 2017 but has quickly became more interesting as he started generating pro statistics. One trait that runs thick in Cleveland’s system is high-end bat-to-ball skills and Freeman has perhaps the best of all of them. He had the 16th-lowest swinging strike rate in the minors last year, one of four Cleveland hitters hovering around the 4% mark. The rest of the profile is very vanilla, but elite contact on a middle infielder has been enough to profile before.

Rocchio’s 2019 triple slash line at Mahoning Valley (.250/.310/.373) is not all that impressive at first glance, but it was enough for a 107 wRC+ at the level, and Rocchio was just 18. The physical development that might lead to a real breakout (and his ascension up the top 100) has not yet materialized, and because Rocchio is a smaller-framed young man, it may never come. But even if it doesn’t, switch-hitting shortstops with bat-to-ball chops have a shot to profile everyday as long as the bat isn’t getting knocked out of their hands.

Karinchak is a plug-and-play impact reliever right now, and he’s the sort of backend bullpen arm some teams are willing to pay a premium for. His fastball — 96-98 with plenty of spin, and a near perfect backspinning axis that creates elite vertical movement — generated a nearly 27% swinging strike rate in the minors last year.

There are baseball executives who have comfortable everyday grades on Johnson, who has one of the more impressive collections of tools in the minors. The loudest of those are his elite arm strength, premium speed, and, to a lesser extent, above-average raw power that manifests as doubles in games because Johnson’s swing really only enables home run power to his pull side.

At one point, Johnson was so raw that some scouts wanted to see him on the mound, but he’s performed consistently all the way through Triple-A, slashing .284/.344/.460 as a pro. That’s close to the league-average line for outfielders, so why not include Johnson on the top 100? His relative lack of defensive instincts make him more of a fit in right field than in center and I think big league arms will be able to pitch to him in a way that limits his power output below the corner outfield average. His line may be elevated by Cleveland’s propensity for platooning, which would limit his role/output from a volume standpoint. I have Johnson as a second-division outfield regular or favorable platoon piece — almost always a 45 FV — and I’m rounding up a bit on his grade because his tools are so electric.

Aside from some person-to-person variation on how to contextualize Espino’s prodigious arm strength, he is universally lauded by scouts. But their enthusiasm is almost always tempered by fear of the profile: a teenager with elite arm strength, a long-ish arm action, and a big, hulking upper body similar to Brady Quinn’s. If Espino continues on his current track, he’ll be an All-Star. In limited post-draft innings — one or two frames per outing for his first several pro appearances, then three to four for his final few — Espino sat 94-97 and touched 99 with two plus breaking balls and starter’s command. Whether he retains that level of heat over an entire season’s worth of innings on regular rest (he was 92-97 in longer starts before the draft) we simply don’t know, but there’s no reason to think Espino is any more of an injury risk than other teenage pitchers unless you twist your brain into knots and conclude that his velocity is somehow a negative. Even if he loses some gas with a pro innings load, Espino could still have three plus pitches at maturity and pitch near the top of a competitive rotation.

He had plenty of high-level amateur experience against good high school (and even some pro) pitching, but it’s still remarkable that the Indians felt comfortable sending 19-year-old Naylor, about nine months removed from catching Canadian high schoolers, to a full-season affiliate in 2019. More impressive still, though perhaps not surprising, was that Naylor responded and performed, slashing .243/.313/.421 (good for a 110 wRC+) while dealing with the physical toll of catching 80 games.

Not only has Naylor kept his body in check as a pro (Bo’s older brother, Josh, is a bigger guy who is limited on defense, and the amateur side of the industry was somewhat worried Bo might develop in a similar fashion), he’s actually more sculpted and athletic now than he was in high school, and he’s likely to catch, if unspectacularly, long-term. So long as that remains true, Naylor has a good chance to be an everyday player. His swing’s a little grooved, but it is electric and produces big power for anyone, let alone a catcher. If he gets to most of it in games, and he has so far (he had strong amateur statistical performance, as well), there’s plenty of room for him to profile even if he ends up as a 40 bat, which I think is possible considering the lack of barrel variability.

Torres checked a lot of amateur scouting boxes — the body, athleticism, stuff, and makeup were all lauded — and he was a model-friendly prospect due to his age, so while issues with fastball command caused some clubs to project him in relief, he was still a clear top two round talent. Perhaps Torres’ control is behind because, as a cold-weather amateur prospect, he hasn’t pitched all that much. He only threw around 40 innings during his senior spring, and bad suburban high school hitters in New York couldn’t catch his fastball. As a result, Torres had little cause to use his changeup during varsity play — some national evaluators would go whole starts without seeing it — but it flashed 55 or 60 during his showcase summer and was easy to dream on.

Perhaps the most striking aspect of Torres’ post-draft performance was how regularly he located his slider down and to his glove side. He has mid-rotation components if you’re willing to dream based on his athleticism, age, and geographic background, even coming off of last year’s surgery – the date of this list’s publication is a year and a few days removed from the TJ.

McKenzie’s TrackMan data on The Board is from the 2018 season since he did not pitch in 2019 due to lat and pec strains. It was his second straight injury-riddled campaign, as he missed the spring of 2018 with upper back issues, and performed beneath career norms when he returned (33% K% from 2015-’17, 24% in ’18), though in fairness to him, he was a 19-year-old pitching at Double-A for the first time. There was pre-draft consternation regarding McKenzie’s frame, which, much like Kevin Durant’s coming out of Texas, was so lean that it existed somewhere between “projectable” and “concerningly thin,” causing some scouts/teams to worry about durability.

In the five years since he was drafted, McKenzie has added five pounds of reported weight (he was listed at 160 on draft day, and is now 165); his fastball, at peak, was 90-93, touching 95 (88-92 in high school) and was 90-94 in camp this spring before the shutdown. The way his delivery and fastball work — it’s deceptive, creates flat angle at the top of the zone, and really carries — makes me think it’ll play at that velocity, and the same is true of McKenzie’s curveball, which has good depth despite bad spin rates. He needs to find a third pitch, and hasn’t really had a chance to do that for two years because of the injuries. At this point, I think it’s more likely to be a slider/cutter than a changeup, which I think would be further along now if it were going to work.

If he can’t find a third pitch, I’m not sure what the role is. McKenzie throws a ton of strikes, so you want him to start, but without a viable third offering that’s pretty tough. High-leverage relief types typically have a better two-pitch mix than even a healthy McKenzie does, so a single-inning relief role doesn’t seem like a great option, and the bulk relief role is often occupied by lower slot changeup guys, not overhand curveball types. I’m willing to bet on the athleticism here to fill in the blank.

In about a year, Oviedo went from being asked about in several of Cleveland’s trade discussions to being passed on in the Rule 5; he’s the highest-ranked player on any prospect list who teams decided not to take in December. The reason? Oviedo’s velocity was all over the place in 2019. Depending on when scouts saw him last year, he was either up to 96 or sitting in the mid-80s, and was eventually shut down with lower back soreness. This spring, however, he was parked at 94 and up to 98. We’re not all that far removed from Oviedo striking out 61 and walking just 10 in 48 innings as a teenager in the New York-Penn League. At age 21, I have him valued where I have a bunch of the college power arms in the 2020 draft, which includes a bunch of guys with shorter or mixed track records. I had healthy Oviedo projected as a fourth starter. I’m in more of a wait-and-see mindset with the role, depending on how the velo and workload interact in the near future, but still think we’re looking at a valuable member of a pitching staff.

He had a disappointing 2019, his second full year since coming back from a 2017 Tommy John, but Hentges has all the characteristics of a prospect who needs a long developmental runway and I still have him projected as an impact piece, even if that’s in the bullpen. Now two inches taller than when he signed, Hentges is a huge-framed 6-foot-8, comes from a cold-weather location (he’s not even the most famous Sam Hentges from Minnesota, as another is a hockey prospect for the Wild), and lost a year to surgery. That he’s still raw at age 24 really isn’t all that surprising, nor do I find it particularly concerning, though admittedly some of that confidence comes from knowing how hard Hentges was throwing in his three big league outings this spring before the shutdown; in those brief outings, Hentges was living in the 96-99 range after sitting 92 (peaking at 96) last year. Cleveland did not baby his innings after he returned from TJ and perhaps 2019 was a bit of a stuff hangover year for him. If he holds this new velo, even if he only does so out of the bullpen, that kind of fastball and Hentges’ breaking ball are enough to make him a big relief piece. He has crude changeup feel and it seemed to be a focus for him during his spring outings. There’s still a chance that comes along (remember, this guy has all the late bloomer traits) and Hentges can start, but the (healthy) floor of a lefty reliever who throws as hard as he does is still exciting even if he can’t.

Hankins was the consensus top prep arm in the class during his pre-draft summer and was a dominant part of Team USA in the fall. At that point, he was commanding a lively 93-96 mph heater, a new, but already plus slider, and an at least average changeup that he didn’t need to use much. He looked a little rusty early during his senior spring, then walked off the mound with tightness in a shoulder muscle tied behind the joint. He returned over a month later and threw hard down the stretch, peaking at 97 mph in multiple open workouts for scouts after his school was eliminated from the playoffs. And that’s where Hankins’ velocity was in 2019. In 70-to-80 pitch outings, he sat 93-96, topping out at 97, albeit with worse control than he had as a high schooler. At various points as an amateur Hankins appeared to utilize either a slider or curveball, and now he uses both. They are better demarcated now then when he was an amateur and both flash plus when located. With Hankins’ arm slot, the secondary pitch that best mirrors his fastball (which has tailing action because of his slot) is actually the changeup.

Hankins has gotten a little soft-bodied since signing and I wonder if it has impacted his athleticism and control, but he was also working to tweak his lower half usage to help him get on top of his breaking ball, which might have affected his mechanical consistency last year. I’m not ready to explicitly project him in the bullpen but between the injury stuff and 2019 strike throwing, it’s objectively trending that way.

Allen had a rocky 2019 but still throws a ton of strikes, has been remarkably durable, is deceptively athletic, and has a plus changeup that mastheads a No. 4/5 starter’s four-pitch mix.

You probably already know about Clase, whose cutting fastball sit around 99 mph and touched 102.7 during a tongue-burning 23-inning big league cup of coffee last year. The Rangers pilfered him from San Diego, straight up, for Brett Nicholas. When Clase was announced as the PTBNL for Nicholas in May of ’18, he hadn’t yet pitched that year. By that fall he was sitting in the upper-90s with natural cut. His 40-man timeline and relative inexperience were likely part of why San Diego was willing to move him.

Cleveland acquired him as part of the Corey Kluber trade in the offseason. Since then, Clase hasn’t thrown a pitch but his evaluation has taken a hit. He was set to miss eight-to-12 months with a severely strained lat, then tested positive for the PED Boldenone, a chemical doppelgänger for testosterone. He’ll miss 80-games. I still have Clase projected in high-leverage relief but now he’s perhaps a whole extra year from the big leagues if the length of the season mimics that of his suspension.

Of the many exciting 18-year-old shortstops in this system, Martinez’s speed and twitch give him the group’s best chance to stay up the middle of the diamond — he played 2B/SS/3B last year and has the arm strength for any of those, though I think it’s possible a lack of bend/flexibility pushes him to center. What’s most exciting about Martinez, though, is how advanced and potent both of his swings are for a teenage switch-hitter. He’s a shorter-levered guy, so both cuts are relatively short, which helps aid Martinez’s bat-to-ball ability. The wrists drive what is currently doubles power (because of his speed, some triples too), both in raw pop and approach. He has a pull-oriented approach as a righty hitter, and while Martinez can lift balls down-and-in as a lefty, his swing is mostly geared for all-fields line drive contact from that side.

This hitting style and Martinez’s relatively modest physical projection (he’s already a pretty ripped 6-feet) make me think the ultimate home run totals will be low but that Martinez will still slug. He has catalytic qualities on offense and a chance to play a premium defensive position.

Cleveland has done a remarkable job of finding international prospects with both advanced bat-to-ball skills and interesting physicality. The stocky, 6-foot-1 Sanquintin is the latest. Scouts don’t typically project bodies like this to stay at short but Sanquintin’s explosive first step allays some of those concerns. His hands are fine, he has a strong arm, and I think he has a fair chance to stick at short. Sanquintin had one of the more advanced bats in his international class and has some present pop due to his physicality, with room for a little more. He has much better feel to hit from the right side of the plate but there’s enticing lift and whip from both sides. He has the tools of a switch-hitting shortstop with power assuming the left-handed bat control improves with time.

He was on this offseason’s Picks to Click list as someone who I think might blow up and be on next year’s top 100, though this is a prospect who might be adversely impacted by the long layoff since low-level players like Sanquintin probably won’t be playing until some kind of fall camp (if at all) and he’s a prospect whose build needs to be kept in check for him to stay at short.

It’s likely Bracho continues to develop as a second baseman to give him some chance of becoming a viable infielder, but I have him projected to left field based on the quality of his hands and actions. If there’s a reason to project on the defense it’s because Bracho just hasn’t had many pro reps at second base yet. Except for a little bit of Extended spring action, he missed all of 2018 with a broken arm and then lost a month of 2019 to an oblique injury. Based on what I’ve seen from Bracho, Shed Long Jr. and Nick Solak are two similarly-skilled potential precedents to watch to see how they’re deployed/hidden on defense in order to get their bats in the lineup.

Bracho can really hit. He’s patient and poised. He’ll take giant hacks in hitter’s counts and more measured ones when he’s adjusting to a breaking ball or just trying to put a ball in play. There’s not a lot of body projection here despite Bracho’s age. He’s got a square, 5-foot-11-ish frame and is already physically mature. The offensive profile is tied to the combination of approach and feel for contact, which should enable Bracho to hit for power in games even though he doesn’t project to have premium raw.

Rodriguez got very muscular very quickly and he was much more physical than almost the entire rest of the DSL, which is part of why Cleveland promoted him to the States for the final few weeks of the 2019 AZL season. There Rodriguez’s swing-happy approach was exposed and he struck out in about a third of his at-bats. With his added size and a new, early evaluation of his plate discipline, there’s a growing chance that Rodriguez is a low-OBP corner prospect, which is a difficult box to mash your way out of. But for now, he also has a non-zero chance to stay at short and hit for a ton of power. His bat speed and physicality are both impressive for a such a young player. There’s big ceiling here, but also extreme risk.

Vargas sat 93-97 as a starter last year but only generated a 7% swinging strike rate with the heater because it has tailing/sinker shape more adept at inducing weak contact than swings and misses. If he moves to the bullpen (which I think is very probable considering how violent and difficult to repeat his delivery is) and experiences a velo bump, then I think the velo will carry that pitch even with lackluster movement. If that’s the case, then he has a good shot at profiling in high-leverage relief. He’s a Fall of ’20 40-man add, so a move to relief may be accelerated by that consideration.

Tena would be in the 40+ FV tier were he not so aggressive at the plate, but early indicators are that he suffers from Vitters’ Affliction, swinging so often because, for now, his excellent feel for contact is enabling an approach that’s less likely to be tenable at the upper levels. That feel for contact comes despite a sometimes noisy, wild swing that has Tena’s wheels spinning as he’s trying to run out of the batter’s box. That he has such strong, top-to-bottom plate coverage, even when he’s swinging out of his ass, makes him exciting from a contact/power potential combo standpoint. Might as well turn him loose and let him swing like that since it doesn’t seem to impact his quality of contact as much as what he decides to swing at does. The skillset and build evoke Rougie Odor.

Moss has a starter’s repertoire but throws strikes at a reliever-y rate, which makes him a strong candidate for multi-inning relief. He lost two college seasons to Tommy John and its subsequent rehab, so some in the industry remain inclined to project on his command, but I have Moss graded as a 4 athlete and am less apt to do so.

Planez has big time pull-side lift in his swing, already has average raw power at age 18, and has a fairly projectable 6-foot-2 frame that portends more. He’ll reach down and barrel balls near his shoe tops and also crush center-cut mistakes. He’s too aggressive right now, his swing is somewhat grooved, and he probably has to move to a corner eventually, so my early assessment of the profile is that it’s very risky, enough that I think Planez needs to be a clear tier behind the Sanquintin/Rodriguez/Martinez group. But as far as teenage power projection bats go, this is a pretty good one.

Sandlin is one of the more interesting and entertaining pitchers in the minors, a four-pitch, slot-altering sidearm reliever with plus command. He sits 90-93 with thresher shark tail, and all of his secondaries play because of how readily Sandlin locates them. Last year, before he was shut down with a forearm fracture that required surgery, he was throwing as many as 30 pitches over two relief innings against Double- and Triple-A hitting. He has the command and repertoire depth to do that against big leaguers so long as his stuff is back coming off the injury.

Now 23, Palacios has still not had a full season of pro at-bats because he missed all of 2019 recovering from labrum surgery. According to a source with the org, he crushed his rehab and is a full go for if/when baseball resumes. Had he not gotten hurt, Palacios might have reached the upper levels last year. He was a polished college hitter who walked 52 times and struck out just 16 as a junior at Towson while also swiping an ultra-efficient 25 bases in 26 attempts, and he hit .360/.420/.538 against low-level pro pitching after he signed. He’s a nearly plus-plus runner and capable middle infield defender (probably at second) with premium hand-eye coordination and bat control. There was some concern that Palacios beat up on small conference pitching his entire career, and that he may not replicate that performance against pro pitching, a concern Palacios hasn’t yet had the opportunity to allay.

Fermin had the eighth-lowest swinging strike rate in the minors last year, a measly 4%. He has a minimalistic swing and excellent hand-eye coordination, which have enabled him to run about an 8.5% strikeout rate the last two seasons. He’s also a capable defensive shortstop. Players like this often outperform eyeball-only evaluations and, heuristically, a hitter like this with almost elite bat-to-ball skills who also plays a premium position typically ends up in a higher FV tier than this. But in Fermin’s case, I think he lacks the power on contact to be an everyday player. I realize those can be famous last words when it comes to a profile like this one, but in this case I think the power is limiting and I have a low-variance bench infield grade on Fermin.

Bradley is a three true outcomes DH prospect who I think will have a front-loaded career in terms of production based on his build and athleticism. There’s a non-zero chance the strikeouts cause the power production to bottom out against big league pitching, in which case Bradley could take the Roberto Ramos 라모스 라모스 route to Asia.

Morgan’s velocity bounced back from 2018’s career low and now, back in the 88-90 range and aided by some deception, his fastball is a viable big league offering. The impact pitch is Morgan’s changeup, which has disorienting angle and fade. I think he’ll live off of his strike-throwing (he has good breaking ball utility even though it’s not a nasty pitch) and changeup enough to be a fifth starter.

Nelson hides the ball really well, goes right at hitters, his fastball has very high spin for a pitch at this velocity, and he has a nasty, downward-breaking slider. He traversed three levels in 2019 and is a big league-ready relief piece.

An acrobatic shortstop, Valdes was among the better infield defenders available in the 2019 draft. He was also one of its youngest prospects, and has shown above-average bat speed from both sides of the plate. He has underdeveloped feel to hit, but that’s typical of switch-hitters this young. Valdes is a well-built 5-foot-10 and so young that he’s very likely to get stronger as he matures. He has everyday tools, but needs significant offensive development.

Morris was a power-armed prep righty in Maryland who was ushered toward college by a Tommy John, which he rehabbed during a redshirt first year at South Carolina. He performed well both seasons in Columbia, his inning total doubling from 2017 to 2018. Cleveland shut him down after the 2018 draft, then asked him to make 20 starts (a little over four innings per start) in 2019. Morris’ innings count is important because he was throwing really hard, especially early in the year, before wavering late. If he can hold that velo for a 120 innings, he’s a No. 4/5 starter, but until he proves it, I have Morris projected in a three-pitch middle relief role.

Cleveland sent Benson back to the Midwest League to start 2019 and while his line looks much different, other than a BABIP regression and uptick in his pull%, his peripherals and batted ball profile were pretty much the same. He’s a three true outcomes prospect of note because he has an elite build and arm strength, but the contact issues are a ruby red flag.

Gaddis’ delivery features a scary head whack, but his arm angle creates tough angle on his stuff, especially his slider, which has nasty two-plane action. He can also pronate around a side-spinning changeup that flashes plus, bat-missing tail. He was up to 95 after the draft and has No. 4/5 starter stuff.

Mejia was injured for all but 33 innings of 2019, his first on the 40-man roster. It means that he’ll be on some kind of innings limit in 2020, likely compressing his short-term role to middle relief, though I think he could eventually find his way into the back of someone’s rotation.

Chang’s batted ball profile took a weird turn in 2019, his worst offensive season as a pro. Typically a fly ball hitter, his groundball rate increased 10% points from 32% in 2018 to 42% last season. He’s become pretty stiff and upright in the batter’s box, which makes it hard for him to get underneath pitches and lift them. I still like the way his hands work, but he can only do damage in a limited slice of the zone with the swing he currently has. If his stride looks a little longer and more flexible this year, maybe he bounces back.

Scott was a 2018 fourth round senior sign, then spent most of his first pro season all the way up at Double-A. He was in the 88-92 range that year but his stuff ticked up in 2019, sitting 90-94 and touching 95 with the fastball while locating his wipeout slider to his glove side. He’s tracking like a quick-moving reliever, at least.

Yet another prospect with premium bat-to-ball skills, Clement has struck out just 81 total times in parts of three pro seasons, and he has a 6% career strikeout rate since way back when he arrived in Charlottesville (7% if you just look at pro ball). While in college, a large swath of the industry thought Clement would play center field as a pro because his hands were not very good. Cleveland has developed him as an infielder and he remains below average there. I’d still like to see him in center but it’s getting late for that. He projects as a bench player (balls in play, sub for speed).

Melendez was acquired during the offseason from Milwaukee for second baseman Mark Mathias. He is a very twitchy, athletic catcher with great defensive mobility. He also has advanced feel for contact and his relatively mature strength lets him hit for gap power. He’s not very projectable so it’s unlikely much power will be part of his profile at peak, but Melendez has a pretty realistic backup catcher outcome, and he has a puncher’s chance to be a low-end regular if he makes a ton of contact, which appears to be in play.

Hill’s stuff is nasty — his heater has huge carry, the breaking ball has big depth, and Hill even has a viable changeup — but his control puts him in the up/down relief bucket during his option years.

A traditional velo/breaking ball reliever, Robinson’s secondary pitch of choice is his upper-80s slider, which he has refined his feel for locating in his mid-20s. He sits 92-96 with the fastball and also has a show-me curve. He could provide bullpen help this year.

I won’t call Lavastida a good receiver but it is amazing how inoffensive he is for someone who only began catching in 2018, in the month leading up to Cleveland drafting him. His hitting hands are pretty powerful, working in a lift-friendly circle (Lavastida inside-outs some balls he could pull but he’s strong enough to do damage anyway), and Lavastida struck out 12% of the time against Penn League pitching, which is a clear cut above the junior college arms he saw in 2018. He’s an interesting developmental sleeper.

Mikolajchak bounced back and forth between the Sam Houston bullpen and rotation during his final two years there, looking best in relief and projecting there in a big league role. He was 90-95 with an above-average curveball after signing.

Kwan had the third-lowest swinging strike rate among qualified minor league hitters in 2019. He’s not especially toolsy (other than the contact skills) and relies entirely on instincts in center field, where he’s actually pretty good. He doesn’t have the power to play an everyday role, but he might find a niche one.

He’s played about 20% of his pro games over at third base but he’s a long-term athletic fit at first. It’s a tough bar to clear, but Noel’s power is prodigious for his age, enough that I like him a little more than the teenage bats in the Others of Note section.

Victor Nova is a powerfully-built 5-foot-9, has feel to hit, a somewhat advanced idea of the strike zone, and well-regarded makeup. He plays multiple positions — 2B/3B/OF — but not all that well. He’s an interesting bat-first flier who was taken on from San Diego in the three-team Trevor Bauer deal.

Rodriguez was one of the youngest players in the 2017 draft and didn’t turn 18 until several months after he was selected. He was also, unsurprisingly, one of the rawest, and spent two summers on the complex in Arizona before finally kicking out to an affiliate in 2019. There Rodriguez hit pretty well (.247/.318/.424) for a 19-year-old in the Penn League. He’s stopped switch-hitting but is still a very young corner outfield prospect with considerable frame-based power projection and a chance to develop late as a hitter because of his age and previous dalliance with switch-hitting.