This is the fifth of a six-part series — the AL East, AL Central, AL West, and NL East pieces have been published — in which I’m highlighting each team’s most notable free agents and how it could fill the resulting void on the roster. A player’s rank on our recently released Top 50 Free Agents list, along with Kiley McDaniel’s contract estimates from that exercise, are listed where relevant. In some cases, the team already has a capable replacement ready to step in. In others, it’s clear the team will either attempt to re-sign their player or look to the trade or free agent markets for help. The remaining cases are somewhere in between, with in-house candidates who might be the answer, but aren’t such obvious everyday players to keep the team from shopping around for better options.

Here’s a look at the National League Central.

Chicago Cubs | Depth Chart | Payroll

Nicholas Castellanos, OF
FanGraphs Top 50 Free Agent Ranking: 11
Kiley McDaniel’s contract projection: 4 years, $56M

Castellanos had been an above-average hitter for a few seasons, although his fielding has left much to be desired. But for the two months following a trade from the Tigers to the Cubs, he was the kind of hitter — 154 wRC+, 16 home runs in 225 plate appearances — whose bat could more than make up for his defensive inadequacies.

Since the Cubs were the team to witness the 27-year-old at his best, especially at Wrigley Field where he slashed .384/.412/.750 in 119 plate appearances, they would have to at least be open to bringing him back. But with the current state of the roster, that does not appear likely unless they trade Kyle Schwarber. Read the rest of this entry »

There’s a lot of starting pitching on the free agent market this offseason. There’s Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Dallas Keuchel, and Hyun-Jin Ryu, among many others. But one guy who has always piqued my personal interest is left-hander Cole Hamels, who is entering free agency for the first time in his 14-year major league career.

Hamels ranked as the 19th-best free agent on the FanGraphs’ Top 50 released earlier this month. Kiley pegged him for a two-year, $28 million contract, and the median (two-years, $30 million) and average (1.93-years, $28.2 million) crowdsource values were pretty close to that. Per his agent, John Boggs, he’s already generated interest from 13 different teams; according to Boggs, Hamels plans to pitch “at least five more seasons.”

Whether or not Hamels can actually pitch for another five years remains to be seen, but what is certain is that he still had plenty left in the tank in 2019. Hamels pitched 141 and two-thirds innings this season, to the tune of a 3.81 ERA and a 4.09 FIP. He struck out 23% of hitters and walked just 9%. Hamels was worth 2.5 WAR over his 27 starts, a solid figure, especially for the middle-of-the-rotation starter Hamels is now. Shoulder and oblique injuries kept him from making a full season’s worth of starts, but when he was on the mound, he was solid.

Driving much of this success was Hamels’ changeup, which experienced a resurgence in 2019. Check out his weighted runs above-average on the pitch by year:

Read the rest of this entry »

“Who doesn’t enjoy going downhill? That’s when you get to stop pedaling.” – Christian Finnegan

Every successful thing has a peak. The Romans had the Pax Romana. Napoleon had the Battle of Austerlitz. The Simpsons had the Who Shot Mr. Burns? cliffhanger. For the early 21st-century Cubs, it was Michael Martinez grounding out on a mild November evening, giving the team its first World Series championship since 1908. Moistened by celebratory alcohol, this was almost certainly the peak for these Cubs, and even a second championship probably wouldn’t touch the magic of this moment.

Since 2016, the Cubs finished each season a bit less successfully than the previous one. The 2017 team dropped four of five to the Dodgers in the NLCS, and the 2018 team’s end came in a wild card game against the Colorado Rockies. The 2019 team didn’t even make it into October.

The club’s dynasty was built on developing players from within and using their big-market financial heft to play in free agency. These two ingredients have faded into the background in recent years as the team’s farm system has been weakened from trades and graduations while ownership has increasingly embraced a more frugal financial strategy. The Cubs are a team in decline, to the point at which they’re just any old NL Central contender, not a behemoth pushing around the Cardinals or Brewers or Reds. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ll learn more about what the 30 teams have in store for the offseason in the coming days. Not in any great detail (and some subterfuge is inevitable), but with varying degrees of forthcomingness, information will indeed be shared. The GM meetings begin tomorrow, in Scottsdale, with media sessions scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Will your favorite team actively pursue a trade for Mookie Betts? Do they have their eyes trained, and checkbooks already open, on free agents such as Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon… or perhaps Andrew Cashner or Jordy Mercer? Answers to those kinds of questions are reliably vague at best, but inquiries of a different ilk often elicit thoughtful responses.

I got a head start on the executive-Q&A front during last month’s NLCS. Eschewing anything roster-related — not the right time and place — I asked St. Louis Cardinals Vice President/General Manager Michael Girsch if he and his front office cohorts had anything cooking behind the scenes. His answer reflected just how much the game continues to evolve.

“We’re kind of reorganizing our baseball development group a little bit,” said Girsch. “The amount of data keeps increasing exponentially. It’s gone from your basic back of a baseball card, 10 or 15 years ago, to TrackMan, to StatCast, and beyond. The infrastructure that worked at one point doesn’t work anymore. When I started, everything was in Excel, on my laptop. That became nonviable pretty quickly, and now we’re moving beyond the servers we have, to other issues.”

Is keeping up more a matter of adding staff, or streamlining the process already in place? Girsch’s response reflected the fact that bigger fish — relative to the here and now — still needed to be fried. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s early in the offseason, but the Cubs look to be in pretty good shape for next year. Our Depth Charts currently have the team set to produce 41 WAR next season, which translates to around 85-90 wins. Even better for the Cubs, they are about six wins ahead of last year’s division-winning Cardinals and seven wins ahead of the Wild Card-winning Brewers. On paper, the Cubs have the best team in the division. That’s a pretty good spot to be in; the problem comes in trying to improve and win with the greatest core of players the franchise has produced in decades.

Over at The Athletic, Shahadev Sharma has a comprehensive look at the Cubs’ plans for the winter. The title gives a little away: “Cubs seem ready to make big moves, but don’t count on them spending big money.” Todd Ricketts’ comments on local radio station 670, The Score provides further insight:

But ultimately, now I think we can stop talking about windows. We should be consistent, and we should be looking toward building a division-winning team every year.

Theo Epstein sort of agrees. From Sharma’s piece:

“Next year is a priority,” Epstein said, before quickly looking ahead. “We have to balance it with the future. That’s probably more important now than it was even a year ago, because we’re now just two years away from a lot of our best players reaching their end of their period of club control with the Cubs. I think the goal is to do everything we can to win the World Series next year, but we also have to pay attention to the long term. Maximize this window while also putting in a lot of good work to open a new one as well.”

Read the rest of this entry »

Job Title: Amateur Scouting Analyst, Research & Development

Department: Baseball Operations

Role:
The Chicago Cubs are seeking an amateur scouting analyst to join the Research and Development group in Baseball Operations. This role will focus on providing data-driven support to the Chicago Cubs’ amateur scouting department in preparation for the Rule 4 draft, in addition to providing analytical evaluation of amateur prospects. The analyst will work closely with the entirety of the R&D department to develop methods to improve the effective understanding and application of data, and disseminate analytic insights throughout the organization.

Responsibilities:

• Research, develop, and test methods and models for the purpose of amateur player assessment and acquisition
• Effectively present analyses through the use of written reports and data visualization methods to communicate relevant findings
• Work with web development team to integrate new statistical analyses, models, and data visualizations into Cubs web applications
• Incorporate new analysis into existing data processes to improve automated reporting
• Identify, diagnose, and resolve data quality issues
• Conduct in-depth evaluations of amateur prospects
• Examine and leverage data streams from new technologies that offer innovative data solutions
• Represent the R&D department in amateur scouting discussions

Qualifications:

• Bachelor’s degree in an quantitative field such as statistics, engineering, applied math, physics, quantitative social sciences, computer science, operations research
• Excellent written and verbal communication skills
• Proficiency with SQL and at least one statistical programming language (e.g., C, Python, MATLAB, or R)
• Working knowledge of advanced baseball statistics
• Familiarity with advanced statistical modeling techniques
• Previous experience working in baseball, particularly with amateur drafts, strongly preferred

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application, which can be found here.

Response Expectations:
Due to the overwhelming number of applications the Cubs receive, they unfortunately may not be able to respond in person to each applicant. However, they can assure you that you will receive an email confirmation when you apply as well as additional email notifications whether you are selected to move forward for the position or not. Please note, the Cubs keep all resumes on file and will contact you should they wish to schedule an interview with you.

The Chicago Cubs and its affiliates are an Equal Opportunity Employer committed to inclusion and employing a diverse workforce. All applicants will receive consideration without regard to race, color, religion, sex, national origin, age, sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, veteran status, disability, or other legally protected characteristics.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Chicago Cubs.

Position: Development Coach (Full-Time/Seasonal)

Location: Cubs minor league affiliates

Role:
This role will work closely with Player Development, Research and Development, and the coaching staff at a minor-league affiliate. The role will focus on collecting data from technologies, and assisting the coaching staff in leveraging information to aid in player development. Successful candidates will have a strong interest in evidence-based coaching and development, the technical aptitude to acquire expertise with the technologies and the resulting data, and the communication skills to work effectively with player development personnel to improve development outcomes for players. This position is located at one of the Cubs affiliates (Des Moines, Iowa; Knoxville, TN; South Bend, IN; Myrtle Beach, FL; Eugene, OR; Mesa, AZ), and would require travel on all road trips during the season.

Responsibilities:

• Assist coaching staff with accessing information and video
• Setup, operate and maintain technologies at the affiliate
• Monitor data from technologies to ensure data quality
• Write reports summarizing trends in data for coaches, player development
• Assist coaching staff in making use of technologies, as guided by player development
• Travel with the team

Qualifications:

• Excellent written and verbal communication skills
• Aptitude for information technology
• Bachelor’s degree in an quantitative field preferred
• Experience with programming or scripting languages (e.g., C, Python, R, SQL) preferred
• Experience or strong interest in using baseball data to support coaching or skill development
• Knowledge of advanced baseball statistics preferred
• Fluency in Spanish preferred

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application that can be found here.

Response Expectations:
Due to the overwhelming number of applications the Cubs receive, they unfortunately may not be able to respond in person to each applicant. However, the Cubs can assure you that you will receive an email confirmation when you apply as well as additional email notifications whether you are selected to move forward for the position or not. Please note, the Cubs keep all resumes on file and will contact you should they wish to schedule an interview with you.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Chicago Cubs.

Please note, this posting contains multiple positions.

Position: Biomechanics Analyst

Description:
The Chicago Cubs are seeking a biomechanics analyst to join the Research and Development group in Baseball Operations. This role will primarily focus on the analysis of motion-capture biomechanical data. The analyst will work closely with the player development and the R&D team to develop methods and improve the effective understanding of biomechanics and how they relate to player performance and injury prevention.

Responsibilities:

• Research, develop and test methods and models based on kinematic and biomechanical data for the purpose of player evaluation and injury risk assessment
• Coordinate usage and collection of data in the Cubs’ hitting and pitching labs
• Effectively present analyses through the use of written reports and data visualization to disseminate insights to members of baseball operations
• Collaborate with physical trainers and physiologists to implement evidence-based recommendations in areas of throwing mechanics and injury rehabilitation
• Collaborate with coaches and player development personnel to implement evidence-based recommendations in areas of pitch and swing mechanics
• Work with web development team to integrate new statistical analyses, models and data visualizations into Cubs web applications
• Identify, diagnose and resolve data quality issues

Qualifications:

• Bachelor’s degree in a scientific field such as applied math, engineering, statistics, physics, neuroscience, biomechanics, physiology
• Experience with SQL
• Experience with programming languages (e.g., C, Python, or R)
• Working knowledge of motion-capture technologies, force plates, and biomechanics as they relate to baseball
• Passion for working with new motion tracking technologies
• Excellent written and verbal communication skills

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application that can be found here.

Position: Analyst, Research & Development

Description:
The Chicago Cubs are seeking analysts to join the Research and Development group in Baseball Operations. This role will focus on conducting core research to further the knowledge-base of the Chicago Cubs. The analyst will work closely with the entirety of the R&D department to develop methods to process data, improve the effective understanding and application of data, and disseminate analytic insights throughout the organization. Analysts may focus their efforts towards collaborating with the Amateur Scouting, International Scouting, or Player Development departments as strengths dictate.

Responsibilities:

• Research, develop, and test methods and models for the purpose of player assessment, development, and acquisition, as well as the optimization of in-game strategy
• Effectively present analyses through the use of written reports and data visualization methods to communicate relevant findings
• Work with web development team to integrate new statistical analyses, models, and data visualizations into Cubs web applications
• Incorporate new analysis into existing data processes to improve automated reporting
• Identify, diagnose, and resolve data quality issues
• Conduct in-depth evaluations of amateur and professional prospects
• Handle data and analysis requests from the coaching staff and other departments within Baseball Operations
• Examine and leverage data streams from new technologies that offer innovative data solutions

Qualifications:

• Bachelor’s degree in an quantitative field such as statistics, engineering, applied math, physics, quantitative social sciences, computer science, operations research
• Excellent written and verbal communication skills
• Proficiency with SQL and at least one statistical programming language (e.g., C, Python, MATLAB, or R)
• Working knowledge of advanced baseball statistics
• Familiarity with advanced statistical modeling techniques
• Relevant experience working in baseball preferred

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application that can be found here.

Response Expectations:
Due to the overwhelming number of applications the Cubs receive, they unfortunately may not be able to respond in person to each applicant. However, the Cubs can assure you that you will receive an email confirmation when you apply as well as additional email notifications whether you are selected to move forward for the position or not. Please note, the Cubs keep all resumes on file and will contact you should they wish to schedule an interview with you.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Chicago Cubs.

Two spring trainings ago I was at the Padres complex in Peoria, Arizona, chatting with Dave Cameron. The longtime FanGraphs frontman had recently joined the NL West club as an analyst, and he had a suggestion. “You should talk to Rowan Wick,” Cameron said of the non-roster invitee whom San Diego had claimed off waivers the previous month. “He’s a good story.”

Indeed he was. Wick entered pro ball as a catcher in 2012, converted to the mound in 2015, and possessed what was later described to me as “one of the shortest, quickest arms I’ve ever seen.” He’d had yet to throw a pitch in the big leagues.

I didn’t get a chance to talk to Wick before departing Arizona, but I remembered Cameron’s suggestion when I returned to the Cactus League this past spring. The right-hander — now with eight-and-a-third MLB innings on his resume — was in camp with the Cubs, a long shot to make the team. A full year after having the bug put in my ear, I wrote about the 26-year-old hurler from North Vancouver, British Columbia.

He proceeded to outperform all expectations. The bulk of his big-league action coming since mid-June, Wick logged a 2.43 ERA and a 2.82 FIP in 31 games out of the Chicago bullpen. Those weren’t even his most-impressive numbers. Opposing hitters slashed a paltry .183/.295/.233 against his overpowering arsenal — one which included a retooled secondary offering.

Wick pointed to just that when asked to explain his breakout campaign. Read the rest of this entry »

While eight teams remain in the postseason, seven who missed out are busy searching for their next skipper. On Thursday, the Mets’ Mickey Callaway joined the ranks of the unemployed, getting the axe after just two seasons at the helm. He’s the fourth manager fired since late September with at least a year remaining on his contract, after the Padres’ Andy Green, the Pirates’ Clint Hurdle, and the Angels’ Brad Ausmus. Meanwhile, two former World Series winners, the Giants’ Bruce Bochy and the Royals’ Ned Yost, have retired, and a third ex-champion, Joe Maddon, parted ways with the Cubs after his contract expired. At this writing, the fate of the Phillies’ Gabe Kapler still hangs in the balance.

What follows here is a roundup of each vacancy, including a list of reported candidates that may not be comprehensive, since all of this is attempting to hit several moving targets. I’ve attempted to distinguish them from those whose candidacies are merely speculative. The teams are listed in order of 2019 records.

Mets (86-76)

What happened: Callaway was hired by general manager Sandy Alderson, who took a leave of absence in mid-2018 due to a recurrence of cancer and decided not to return to the job. Former agent Brodie Van Wagenen was hired last November, and he made a series of splashy moves, many of which ultimately set the Mets back (particularly the trade of two former first-round picks for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz). The holdover manager did not mesh with an increasingly analytically inclined front office — at one point, Callaway boasted, “I bet 85% of our decisions go against the analytics,” a statement that stood out given his often glaring in-game mistakes, many centered around a bullpen that ranked among the league’s worst. Read the rest of this entry »