After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays.

Batters

The Rays are similar to the St. Louis Cardinals in that they’re almost always one of the highest-floor teams in baseball. Since the team’s breakout season in 2008, which saw them reach the World Series, they’ve only really had one season that you could reasonably call lousy, the 68-94 campaign in 2016. Otherwise, Tampa’s been middling at worst, with a stretch of high-70s/low-80s wins that in large part reflects some draft struggles.

Since 2009, the Rays have only really hit on two players in the draft: Kevin Kiermaier and Blake Snell. Now, the jury is still out on some of these drafts, especially the more recent ones, but it’s hard for a team with Tampa Bay’s revenue model — and given some of the surrounding issues, they’re one of the few teams that really does seem to struggle financially — to compete consistently without drafts paying off. Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Francisco Giants.

Batters

Be very careful when scrolling down to look at the depth chart. The way these things work, the first thing you’ll see is the outfield, which is likely to remain an absolutely brutal mess, one that couldn’t even be half-solved by a Ronald Acuña/Juan Soto-esque rise to power by Heliot Ramos, one of San Francisco’s few top prospects. Let’s put it this way: ZiPS projects Rule 5 draftee Drew Ferguson to be arguably the best outfielder on the team, with two of the other top outfielders being a minor-league signing and a waiver claim from the Rangers. The good news is that most of the group actually projects above replacement-level, so there’s a weird amount of adequacy in terms of the depth, but the projections give absolutely none of the team’s current group a chance to have much of an upside.

Things get sunnier when you look at the infield, which is the primary reason the Giants are likely to still be projected above the Padres for one last run (though probably just for one, unless the Padres are notably unlucky or incompetent). ZiPS essentially projects improvement for all of the team’s infield starters, kind of a rarity given the generally justifiable grumpy conservativeness to which projections systems are prone. The quality of the infield lends itself well to the argument that the Giants probably ought to have won more games last year. Not enough to be a playoff team, mind you, but at least enough to tone down the bleakness.

The worrisome thing about the offense is that most of the highlight players are at ages where their downsides can still hit like a ton of bricks and fast, and there’s no counterbalancing breakout potential. To the team’s credit, they’ve given every indication they realize that the outfield is bit of a tire fire. The Giants were in on all of the Marlins outfielders last winter, brought in Andrew McCutchen for 2018 (before trading him to the Yankees), and are now courting Bryce Harper. If any team is able to convince Harper to sign a shorter-term contract, San Francisco seems like a possibility; a superstar season from Harper could get the team into plausible contention, given their outfield weakness. And time is of the essence — if the infield starters don’t bounce back, this team is absolute toast.

I am still confused as to the baseball purpose of Pablo Sandoval remaining on the roster. Did someone in the organization finish last in their fantasy baseball league, and this is their punishment?

Pitchers

Johnny Cueto could theoretically return in September, but I think the smart money is still on him not making an appearance until 2020. Which, in addition to being unfortunate for Cueto, is rather bad timing for the Giants, who are less likely to be playing meaningful games in 2020 than this year.

Madison Bumgarner only gets a two-WAR projection, but that’s over just 147 innings, due largely to his attendance over the last two seasons, when he’s missed time due to freak injuries, one caused by something somewhat unusual (a dirt bike), the other by something somewhat mundane (a line drive). Since no elbow or shoulders were involved, I’m more optimistic about Bumgarner getting back to the 200 inning range than the projections are, which would boost his WAR to around three. ZiPS projects Dereck Rodriguez to be roughly league-average, which will be disappointing to Giants fans after a season in which Rodriguez was one of the team’s few highlights, but he has a very short record track record and a low K rate, so ZiPS isn’t putting him on the Kyle Hendricks pile yet. He’s certainly unlikely to repeat the 0.68 HR/9, even playing in Oracle Park.

The bullpen isn’t flashy, but the front-end is solidly above-average, and the team’s depth projects as more than adequate for its needs. San Francisco has shown an ability to turn random pieces into good relievers, and has a solid record with reclamation projects, such as Sam Dyson.

Bench and Prospects

After Joey Bart and Heliot Ramos, both likely to get official projections next year, the cupboard gets bare quickly. ZiPS does project Shaun Anderson to be a decent No. 3 starter for a time in his prime, and it has a long-term fascination with Conner Menez, but there’s just not much there there. Honestly, if the Giants had better prospects after their top two guys, I’d expect them to already have been traded for a starting pitcher. Most teams have a position player or two who ZiPS thinks projects better than the scouting reports indicate, but I’m just not seeing anybody here. Despite playing in the Pacific Coast League, Triple-A Sacramento only had one player who hit 15 homers (Chris Shaw).

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Houston Astros.

Batters

Suffice it to say, the highs here are very, very high. Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa are all threats to have MVP-caliber seasons in any given year. Yes, Correa missed significant time due to back soreness, his second season in a row marred by injury and time on the injured list. And yes, Correa did have easily the worst of his four major league seasons in 2018. But it’s still too early to call him injury-prone, and he’s 24, not 34. His age is also an important number to remember when we consider his offensive regression last year; if he were a hotshot shortstop prospect being called up for his age-23 season and had a .728 OPS in a theoretical 140-game rookie season, he’d be getting Rookie of the Year votes.

ZiPS is extremely optimistic when it comes to Kyle Tucker, and if he plays as well as his projection, I suspect he will force his way into the lineup quickly, kicking off domino effect that will result in Michael Brantley or Josh Reddick getting more DH playing time, Tyler White more time at first, and Yuli Gurriel more time on the bench. Gurriel was a good stopgap first baseman, but average-ish first basemen turning 35 don’t usually have gentle aging curves. It’s likely the Astros’ weakest position and if Tucker’s pushing comes to shoving, Gurriel is the most likely to lose at-bats. Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers.

Batters

With the position players, we have the sizzle that moved the Brewers from an adequate team to a very good one, thanks to the additions of last year’s best, high-profile free agent signing in Lorenzo Cain and the best, high-profile trade in Christian Yelich. ZiPS was a believer in both — I peppered my articles last winter with predictions of a Yelich breakout and Cain as the best free agent hitter available after J.D. Martinez — so the two of them having MVP-type seasons hardly should make ZiPS sour on them. And it didn’t! Sure, Cain turns 33 early in the season, but his defense hasn’t declined as of yet. Indeed, he may actually be underrated at this point; he should have made a minimum of four All-Star appearances rather than a measly two.

I feel for Manny Pina, who is essentially getting pushed aside for Yasmani Grandal, and while the Brewers absolutely should prefer Grandal — he’s younger, better, and signed to a ridiculously team-friendly contract — Pina’s been perfectly adequate behind the plate. The depth charts have Kratz backing up Grandal, but I’d suspect that in a time when the catcher position is weak around baseball, Milwaukee will trade Pina, or play him for a bit before leaving him open to a waiver claim later in the spring.

I’m kind of sad that Arcia’s projection for 2019 is so light on WAR. He’s always been a favorite of mine, but if he’s not matching his minor league glove reputation in the majors, he’s not much of a starter unless his bat rebounds in a big way.

Pitchers

ZiPS is once again more bullish on the Brew Crew’s starting pitching than Steamer is this year, but it still doesn’t see any of the Brewers as an obvious ace type. It’s easy for people criticize Steamer based on the current depth charts, but I think people are underestimating the challenges of projecting essentially the entire Brewer rotation. Each pitcher who is likely to contribute has at least something that makes it difficult for any prognosticator to do their job. Let’s take a look.

Jhoulys Chacin beat his FIP by half-a-run thanks to a .250 BABIP. He’s shown no signs of being able to do this repeatedly in the past, but also spent a lot of his career at Coors, which is obviously an extremely difficult environment for a pitcher.

Zach Davies looked like he was becoming a solid No. 2 or 3 guy, but missed significant time with shoulder injury in 2018.

When it comes to Chase Anderson, well, there’s beating your FIP, and there’s beating your FIP, and Anderson did the latter in 2018, besting it by nearly a run-and-a-third. ZiPS buys that there’s some ability here, but just how big that ability is remains up in the air.

Brandon Woodruff was up-and-down all year after struggling early, but will likely to get rotation spot despite only four major league starts in 2018 (he had more in the minors).

Jimmy Nelson missed the entire 2018 season due to shoulder surgery. Corbin Burnes has yet to make a major league start. Freddy Peralta has a stat profile that looks like that of a guy who throws 97 rather than 90-91.

ZiPS was closer when it came to the Brewers last year, but that’s not necessarily predictive; it wouldn’t take a lot for Steamer to win this battle. I’m less certain about the Brewers’ projections, at least on the pitching side, than I am most others this offseason.

Bench and Prospects

ZiPS buys Keston Hiura, and while it doesn’t have him becoming prime Dan Uggla or anything — I’m not sure why I chose Uggla here — the computer thinks that he’ll force his way into a job fairly quickly. I don’t think the Brewers will do with him what the White Sox did with Eloy Jimenez, and I suspect that if they weren’t going to give Hiura every opportunity to clear the field this summer, they’d have tendered Jonathan Schoop a contract.

The projections now have Mauricio Dubon as the equal of Arcia, though a large part of that has to do with Arcia’s forgettable 2018 season. That the projection is damning with faint praise is further evidenced by the fact that ZiPS sees Tyler Saladino as roughly equivalent as well. After Hiura, Dubon, Trey Supak, and Zack Brown, ZiPS sees the quality falling off very quickly, not expecting Corey Ray to ever make enough contact to be an effective major league hitter, or Lucas Ercerg to be better than a reserve.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Oakland Athletics.

Batters

From the projections, one can see why the A’s let Jed Lowrie go so easily, despite his legitimate star-level performance in 2017 and ’18. Five Oakland infielders — the starters plus Franklin Barreto — project to be league-average or better. Now, none of them project to reach the level of Lowrie’s 4.9 WAR in 2018, but then again, neither does Lowrie, and mid-30s middle infielders tend to have pretty steep aging curves. And really, if anyone thought Lowrie was going to perform at an All-Star level again in 2019, he likely would have done better than two years and $20 million. Jurickson Profar projects to be a worthy replacement for Lowrie, and his return from literally years of injury and then underperformance is one of my favorite stories in baseball.

Except for catcher and the four-headed chimera in left field — at least, as our depth charts have it figured so far — the A’s project to be average or better, and sometimes significantly so, at every position. Perhaps ZiPS is trying to do penance for missing on the A’s by something like 20 wins in 2018.

Don’t get too excited about the Matt Olson comp; this version is from when Ortiz was still in the “Wait, is that the same guy as David Arias?” portion of his career, before he became Big Papi.

Pitchers

Ok, the highs are not very high. That’s due in large part to the fact that ZiPS is projecting fairly low innings totals for Oakland’s pitchers across the board. The system is aware of the injuries to Sean Manaea and Andrew Triggs in very general terms, so these aren’t theoretical “healthy” projections. As such, Manaea’s projection isn’t unexpected, but Triggs’s was a legitimate surprise to me. But again, I’m going to de-wind your sails a little bit by noting that ZiPS sees the Triggs injury as a generic “shoulder” ailment because I don’t have the data on thoracic outlet syndrome recoveries that I do with those from Tommy John. Regardless, this is an injury that you really don’t want.

The rotation’s highs may not be very high, but ZiPS sees the group as incredibly deep. 18 pitchers project to be worth at least one WAR if playing in the majors, and though a few of them are relievers (Blake Treinen, Lou Trivino, and Joakim Soria) and Brett Anderson is a free agent, that’s still a lot of options.

Bench and Prospects

I hope that someday I can love somebody or something the way ZiPS loves Jesus Luzardo. No, the computer isn’t projecting him to actually have Steve Carlton’s career, but who wouldn’t take that as a top comp? ZiPS already sees Luzardo as the team’s best starting pitcher, a pretty shocking projection for a guy who started the season in A-ball and whose parent club isn’t, say, the Baltimore Orioles.

It also interests me that ZiPS pegs Sean Murphy as the team’s best catching option. I’m definitely interested to see where he falls on the McDongenhagen prospect list; he ranked sixth last year, but after a .285/.361/.489 year and a finish at Triple-A, I would imagine he’s moved up. Conversely, Oakland cooled on Dustin Fowler and now largely sees him as a fourth outfielder. Overall, ZiPS sees a lot more of interest in the minor league pitchers than the hitters.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.