FanGraphs Baseball

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
The Yankees’ roster, as presently constructed, is unusual. The prospective starting lineup features, on the one hand, two of this past season’s legitimately best players. It includes at least three others, however, who are projected for one or fewer wins in 2018. It doesn’t seem as though Brian Cashman et al. have specifically set out to assemble a stars-and-scrubs roster. That seems to have been the result so far, though.

The core of the offense, clearly, is formed by Aaron Judge (621 PA, 4.7 zWAR) and Giancarlo Stanton (593, 6.4). Dan Szymborski’s computer calls for that pair to record just over 11 wins together — as in, that’s the mean projected outcome, tempered by regression and aging and whatever. By comparison, consider: less than a third of clubs in 2017 featured teammates who produced observed combined win totals of 11 or greater. Four whole teams, in fact, failed to cross the 11-win threshold this past season. Judge and Stanton, in other words, represent a strong foundation for the offense.

What remains to be seen is how the club builds on that foundation. Greg Bird (372 PA, 1.1 zWAR), Ronald Torreyes (395, 0.1), and Miguel Andujar (576, 1.2) are, for now, the most likely Opening Day starters at first, second, and third base, respectively. They’re forecast for fewer than three wins between them. Bird’s modest wins projection is the result, in part, of a modest playing-time projection — not surprising for a player who’s recorded only 200 or so professional plate appearances over the last two seasons. As for Andujar and Torreyes, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to find them relegated to a bench role before the offseason is complete.

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While everyone waits for the thaw of the free-agent market, the Dodgers, Royals, and White Sox got together on a three-team trade Thursday evening.

The L.A. Times‘ Andy McCullough broke the news on the deal, as part of which the Royals send lefty reliever Scott Alexander to the Dodgers for prospects Erick Mejia and Trevor Oaks. The Dodgers ship lefty reliever Luis Avilan and $3 million to the White Sox. The Royals are also reportedly moving Joakim Soria and $1 million to the White Sox in something of a salary dump.

While there are quite a few moving parts, the focus within this post will be on Alexander, an interesting arm who could fill a need — and fill it cheaply — for one of the top clubs in baseball. Lefty reliever Tony Watson is a free agent, and the Dodgers are attempting to stay under the luxury tax. In giving up prospects and cash, the Dodgers must also feel Alexander is an upgrade over Avilan, who is projected to make $2.3 million in arbitration according to MLB Trade Rumors.

Alexander, a pre-arbitration arm with five years of control remaining, might not only fill a need cheaply for the next couple of seasons but also exceptionally well. While, on the one hand, the Dodgers are trading a lefty who misses bats, they’re also adding a lefty who might have more upside in today’s offensive environment.

In a year marked by fly balls, home runs, launch angles, and juiced balls, Alexander was, by some measures, the top ground-ball arm in the game in 2017. The approach led him to a 2.48 ERA, 3.23 FIP, and 56 ERA- last season over 69 innings. He emerged, quietly, as one of the better relievers in the game.

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Update: Please submit your application before Tuesday, January 23rd and 12:00 AM.

FanGraphs has grown tremendously these last few years, and we’re thrilled that you all have helped build this community into one of the best baseball hubs on the internet. And now, we’re growing again, as we’re looking to bring on another full-time writer to join our staff.

We’re looking for someone who is interested in publishing daily, covering the ins and outs of what is happening in Major League Baseball. Familiarity and comfort with the data here on FanGraphs is a requirement, but just as importantly, we’re looking for someone who asks interesting questions and then provides analysis or commentary around those questions.

This is a full-time salaried position with benefits. If you have a passion for writing about baseball and think you’d be a good fit with us, send us an email at wanted@fangraphs.com, and use the subject line “FanGraphs Full-Time Writer Application – 2018”; please ensure that is the subject so that we can keep all of the applications organized, and ensure yours does not slip through the cracks.

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Episode 793
Dayn Perry is a contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and the author of three books — one of them not very miserable. He’s also the role-playing guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 7 min play time.)

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Recently, St. Louis general manager John Mozeliak was asked about his starting rotation in 2018. He said he was mostly content to go to battle with the players he had. Consider this, for example, from Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

It’s unclear if there’s a design behind the order in which Mozeliak names the staff, but he does single out Adam Wainwright as a somewhat unknown variable.

Now there’s a rumor that the Cardinals are in on Jake Arrieta, which, especially when seen next to this discussion of pitcher roles next year, might mean that the 36-year-old Wainwright is losing his grip on his rotation spot.

As bad as last year was for the veteran Cardinal righty — and it was, since he was somewhere between the 18th-worst and 36th-worst starting pitcher who threw at least 120 innings last year — the way the season progressed may have been even more disheartening than even the overall results.

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This past season’s offensive environment would have been hard to predict four years ago. The 2014 campaign was a pitcher’s paradise. That year, teams scored fewer runs per game than in any season since 1981 and posted the lowest slugging percentage since 1992. Home runs were down, strikeouts were up, and people were left wondering what the future held. Many in the game were of the belief that baseball was entering a new era, one in which speed would play an increasingly important role.

Needless to say, that didn’t happen. Instead we’ve seen an explosion of power (accompanied by a continued rise in strikeouts). For the majority of teams, speed has become less, not more, of a priority.

I asked a selection of MLB managers about this at the Winter Meetings. Prefacing my question with a mention of the post-2014 predictions, I solicited their opinions on the role of speed in today’s game.

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Jeff Banister, Texas Rangers: “There are two elements to speed. There is speed on the bases and speed on defense. I see it every day. It’s a really nice concept on television with Statcast — we can track guys now at a greater rate. I think the element of speed is crucial in the game, whether it’s on defense or offense.

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Last offseason, Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon signed contracts totaling $228 million. More money was guaranteed to that threesome than had ever been committed to all free-agent relievers in a single offseason. Nor did that represent the end of the spending: another seven relievers signed multi-year deals totaling more than $100 million. Overall, last winter’s $420 million outlay on relief pitching nearly doubled the high-water mark from previous seasons.

This offseason, there is no Chapman or Jansen type of reliever worthy of such a significant investment. Wade Davis is probably the equivalent of last year’s version of Melancon. Not surprisingly, he recently signed a Melancon-type contract. Even without the best closers in the game available, however, relievers seem poised to set another mark for free-agent bullpen spending.

There are still a few higher-end relievers available in Greg Holland and Addison Reed. After those two, there are also a handful of late-inning guys who seem likely to receive guaranteed deals for smaller amounts, even if they don’t get multi-year guarantees or eight-figure salaries. So while we aren’t yet done, it’s clear that the reliever market is a lot further along than the rest of the free-agent class, so we can get a good idea of how this year’s numbers compare to years past.

The graph below shows the number of multi-year free agent deals relievers have signed over the past seven offseasons, including this one.

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Position: Houston Astros Baseball Research & Development Analyst

Location: Houston
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Everybody knows that next year’s crop of free agents is going to be spectacular. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado headline the class, of course, but Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel, and Andrew McCutchen will all be available, as well. Clayton Kershaw, meanwhile, will have the option of opting out of the final two years of his contract with the Dodgers. The collection of talent is impressive. The contracts they’re all likely to receive are expected to be equally so.

By contrast, the prospect “merely” of Yu Darvish, Eric Hosmer, and J.D. Martinez — that is, the top names of the 2017-18 offseason — isn’t as striking. Had things unfolded differently, however, this offseason would have facilitated a free-agent bonanza of its own.

The Dodgers and Yankees appear motivated to avoid the competitive-balance tax right now, but would they be doing so if Mike Trout were available? How about Jose Altuve or Paul Goldschmidt? This isn’t some fantasyland where every player is a free agent. If Altuve, Goldschmidt, and Trout hadn’t signed team-friendly contract extensions, all three would be free agents right now. They aren’t the only ones, either.

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