2020 ZiPS Projections: Detroit Tigers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers.

Batters

The Detroit Tigers will continue to struggle to score runs. I don’t mean in the “occasionally getting shut out by the Orioles” sense, but more like when you’re watching Tigers games, you should channel flip when they’re at the plate rather than during the commercials. What makes this worse isn’t that they’re just awful offensively, but that there’s really almost no source of potential upside outside of Jeimer Candelario.

Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron are both legitimate major leaguers, but in this offense, they’re practically the centerpieces, and the most the Tigers can really hope for is that they’re good enough to flip for a prospect in July. Normally, I’d rather see lottery tickets instead of fill-in veterans since the offense will be absolutely wretched under any circumstances, but Detroit doesn’t really even have many of those types either. Nor have the Tigers done any sweeps of minor league free agency to find any; it’s been an extraordinarily quiet winter in the Motor City.

It’s kind of sad to see Miguel Cabrera with a negative number, but his power was non-existent last year and it’s hard to have value at designated hitter when your isolated power is the same as Hanser Alberto’s. Cabrera blasted the team’s lineup for his lack of power in 2019, but the truth is that Cabrera just isn’t a good hitter any longer. One of the most dangerous fastball hitters in baseball at one point, Cabrera only had an xSLG of .600 against fastballs in what Statcast calls the “heart” of the strike zone. That sounds like a big number, but the league as a whole was at .615. That number was .928 for Cabrera as recently as 2016, and at 17% of pitches thrown in the heart of the zone last year, pitchers gave him more fastballs down the middle than ever before in his career. He just can’t do much with them these days.

One mystery I’m eager to see solved in 2020 is the defensive disappearance of JaCoby Jones. Both UZR and DRS loved Jones before 2019 but absolutely hated him last year. From 2018-19, Jones lost 19 defensive runs in center field according to UZR and a whopping 23 runs by DRS. It’s a big deal for a player like Jones, whose value relies heavily on performing on defense.

Pitchers

One reason the Tigers may be more watchable than the Orioles in 2020 is that the games will actually end. The Tigers combine their atrocious run-scoring machine with a rotation that, to be perfectly honest, really isn’t all that bad. No, the heights aren’t that high, but the Tigers have what essentially amounts to a surplus of adequate-ish pitching. This sounds like a joke, but it isn’t: a rotation made of Detroit’s sixth-through-10th-best starting pitchers projects to be better than Baltimore’s actual rotation.

ZiPS forecasts Matt Boyd to allow fewer home runs than in 2019, but this is partially counteracted by some regression in his strikeout rate. While ZiPS weighs recent strikeout rate very heavily — because that’s what history says you should do — it still must be convinced that all of Boyd’s three-strikeouts-per-game improvement is supported by the peripheral data. Outside of Iván Nova, whose strikeout rate has descended into the range in which he has a massive downside, I don’t think ZiPS is particularly grumpy anywhere in the rotation.

ZiPS also continues to see Spencer Turnbull as a reasonable third starter and views Michael Fulmer, when he eventually returns, in a similar light. The bullpen’s projections are nowhere near as optimistic, but they really ought not be at this point in a rebuild; Detroit’s still going through the sorting-out process here, and some of the starting pitching prospects that don’t work out will likely end up as relievers. The one exception is Joe Jiménez, the only member of the bullpen that ZiPS has projected to better than league-average. As with Boyd, ZiPS does not think that Jiménez’s homers allowed matches how he pitched in 2019. Statcast data agrees with this as the xSLG for Boyd and Jiménez both come in at least 50 points under the actual slugging percentages allowed.

Prospects

When counting pitchers with 10 projected WAR remaining in their careers, ZiPS sees the Tigers as having nine of them. The 2020 projections aren’t complete yet, but this would have ranked them fourth among the 2019 teams. Matt Manning and Casey Mize project to have bright futures, both with significant ace-type upside, and while ZiPS isn’t quite as optimistic about his ceiling, the computer also thinks Tarik Skubal has a 60% chance to have multiple two-WAR seasons in the majors.

The challenge for Detroit is that they’re not going to be able to just sit on their pitching prospects to build a winner. If ZiPS is correct, the only player in the farm system who will ever have much value in the majors is Isaac Paredes. Paredes projects as a solid long-term starter for the Tigers and the only prospect to have better than a 2% chance — according to ZiPS — of hitting 20 WAR in their career. Paredes is at 41.4%. Next are Kody Clemens at 1.2% and Daz Cameron at 0.9%.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

 

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Jeimer Candelario B 26 3B 583 514 68 122 30 3 18 61 59 142 3 1
C.J. Cron R 30 1B 499 455 57 120 24 1 26 74 29 103 1 1
Jonathan Schoop R 28 2B 549 512 71 134 27 1 25 72 24 122 1 1
Isaac Paredes R 21 3B 563 506 62 128 25 3 17 58 42 87 4 2
Jake Rogers R 25 C 428 379 47 75 15 2 15 46 36 133 3 2
Niko Goodrum B 28 SS 475 432 57 104 24 4 14 48 39 136 11 4
Willi Castro B 23 SS 627 576 69 145 29 6 12 58 32 135 14 5
Eric Haase R 27 C 417 381 48 76 13 2 19 51 29 160 1 2
Austin Romine R 31 C 244 228 26 58 12 0 7 29 12 49 1 0
JaCoby Jones R 28 CF 436 396 49 87 20 4 12 36 30 134 10 4
Victor Reyes B 25 RF 565 537 64 144 25 6 9 49 23 107 16 6
John Hicks R 30 C 344 324 35 76 15 0 12 38 16 99 2 2
Kade Scivicque R 27 C 313 295 30 70 14 1 7 28 13 68 0 0
Grayson Greiner R 27 C 319 290 30 61 10 1 8 31 23 94 1 0
Dawel Lugo R 25 3B 607 581 62 149 26 5 11 56 19 102 5 3
Gordon Beckham R 33 2B 336 306 36 70 16 1 7 28 23 69 4 2
Travis Demeritte R 25 RF 545 486 66 106 23 4 20 55 51 183 6 3
Daniel Pinero R 26 3B 452 406 46 88 20 2 10 42 37 113 4 5
Christin Stewart L 26 LF 551 485 62 114 24 2 21 67 54 145 1 1
Jon Rosoff L 25 C 174 161 14 36 5 1 1 10 10 28 3 2
Jordy Mercer R 33 SS 414 379 39 92 19 2 9 36 29 77 0 1
Miguel Cabrera R 37 DH 453 408 32 107 18 0 9 48 39 87 0 0
Kody Clemens L 24 2B 500 455 47 97 22 4 11 50 35 131 8 3
Mikie Mahtook R 30 RF 443 402 50 90 14 3 17 49 32 117 9 4
Daz Cameron R 23 CF 542 484 59 105 21 6 12 50 45 151 16 9
Brandon Dixon R 28 1B 445 414 46 96 22 3 15 52 23 142 7 3
Frank Schwindel R 28 1B 485 461 52 117 25 0 17 59 16 79 1 1
Dustin Peterson R 25 LF 419 392 41 92 20 1 11 44 22 104 2 1
Bobby Wilson R 37 C 150 137 11 23 5 0 3 12 10 39 0 0
Sergio Alcántara B 23 SS 452 411 41 93 12 1 2 24 34 94 7 5
Harold Castro L 26 2B 491 467 44 122 15 3 6 40 14 98 6 6
Jorge Bonifacio R 27 LF 483 441 54 100 18 3 14 47 35 129 4 3
Troy Stokes Jr. R 24 LF 482 423 53 88 19 2 12 42 47 134 15 5
Brian Schales R 24 3B 386 344 37 68 14 2 8 31 34 131 1 3
Chad Sedio L 26 LF 371 340 34 70 14 3 6 31 15 100 1 1
Danny Woodrow L 25 LF 451 411 42 94 12 3 1 25 30 100 17 7
Kody Eaves L 26 2B 436 399 43 80 17 3 10 40 31 139 4 2
Jacob Robson L 25 LF 471 422 50 97 19 2 9 39 41 135 18 9
Cam Gibson L 26 LF 452 408 42 80 13 4 8 36 34 131 15 6
Cole Peterson L 24 SS 451 423 37 93 12 3 1 24 18 70 16 9
Joey Morgan R 23 C 266 239 20 41 7 1 3 15 19 75 0 0
Luke Burch L 26 LF 302 281 23 56 5 1 0 13 14 102 7 5
Josh Lester L 25 1B 518 473 51 99 22 2 14 52 35 143 1 0
Derek Hill R 24 CF 477 437 47 89 13 3 8 35 28 156 19 12
Jose Azocar R 24 RF 517 495 45 114 16 4 6 39 13 146 7 4

 

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Jeimer Candelario .237 .322 .412 94 .175 .294 4.7 5 1.9 Kory Casto
C.J. Cron .264 .321 .492 112 .229 .288 5.8 2 1.5 Larry Sheets
Jonathan Schoop .262 .304 .465 101 .203 .299 5.1 -2 1.5 Kevin Kouzmanoff
Isaac Paredes .253 .318 .415 93 .162 .276 4.8 1 1.4 Lou Lucca
Jake Rogers .198 .277 .367 70 .169 .260 3.4 9 0.9 Blake Barthol
Niko Goodrum .241 .305 .412 89 .171 .319 4.5 -4 0.8 Joe Redfield
Willi Castro .252 .301 .385 81 .134 .310 4.3 -2 0.8 Carlos Garcia
Eric Haase .199 .260 .394 71 .194 .282 3.4 5 0.6 Louis Santangelo
Austin Romine .254 .292 .399 82 .145 .297 4.3 1 0.6 Robert Machado
JaCoby Jones .220 .285 .381 76 .162 .300 3.8 4 0.5 Emmitt Cohick
Victor Reyes .268 .298 .387 81 .119 .321 4.3 5 0.2 Alexis Rios
John Hicks .235 .271 .392 74 .157 .300 3.7 -1 0.1 Dave Cochrane
Kade Scivicque .237 .275 .363 68 .125 .286 3.5 1 0.1 Scott Servais
Grayson Greiner .210 .270 .334 60 .124 .282 3.1 3 0.1 Francisco Morales
Dawel Lugo .256 .282 .375 73 .119 .295 3.8 3 0.0 Ricky Bell
Gordon Beckham .229 .290 .356 71 .127 .274 3.6 1 0.0 Geoff Blum
Travis Demeritte .218 .296 .405 84 .187 .304 4.1 0 0.0 Jack Voigt
Daniel Pinero .217 .288 .350 69 .133 .276 3.3 4 0.0 Richard Slavik
Christin Stewart .235 .318 .423 95 .188 .292 4.7 -7 0.0 Darrel Deak
Jon Rosoff .224 .276 .286 51 .062 .265 2.7 3 0.0 Brian Moon
Jordy Mercer .243 .303 .375 79 .132 .283 4.0 -5 -0.1 Chris Speier
Miguel Cabrera .262 .327 .373 86 .110 .314 4.5 0 -0.1 Kevin Millar
Kody Clemens .213 .273 .352 65 .138 .275 3.3 4 -0.1 Scott Youngbauer
Mikie Mahtook .224 .287 .400 81 .177 .272 4.0 1 -0.1 Marc Sagmoen
Daz Cameron .217 .297 .360 74 .143 .290 3.6 -3 -0.2 Steve Moss
Brandon Dixon .232 .276 .408 79 .176 .315 4.0 3 -0.2 Yurendell de Caster
Frank Schwindel .254 .282 .419 83 .165 .274 4.3 1 -0.2 Rob Cosby
Dustin Peterson .235 .279 .375 72 .140 .292 3.7 3 -0.4 Jim Fasano
Bobby Wilson .168 .223 .270 31 .102 .211 2.0 2 -0.4 Raul Chavez
Sergio Alcántara .226 .287 .275 52 .049 .289 2.7 4 -0.5 Mike Bordick
Harold Castro .261 .283 .345 67 .084 .320 3.4 1 -0.5 Juan Melo
Jorge Bonifacio .227 .286 .376 75 .150 .289 3.7 1 -0.6 Troy Hughes
Troy Stokes Jr. .208 .297 .348 72 .139 .274 3.6 -1 -0.6 Jay Kvasnicka
Brian Schales .198 .277 .320 59 .122 .293 2.8 1 -0.6 Christian Snavely
Chad Sedio .206 .262 .318 54 .112 .274 2.8 6 -0.8 Randy Rigsby
Danny Woodrow .229 .282 .280 51 .051 .300 2.8 8 -0.9 Brent Bish
Kody Eaves .201 .260 .333 57 .133 .280 2.9 -1 -0.9 Jake Wald
Jacob Robson .230 .300 .348 73 .118 .317 3.7 -4 -1.0 David Espinosa
Cam Gibson .196 .263 .306 51 .110 .268 2.8 6 -1.1 Dwight Maness
Cole Peterson .220 .253 .270 40 .050 .261 2.3 6 -1.1 Tony Rodriguez
Joey Morgan .172 .242 .247 31 .075 .236 2.0 -1 -1.2 Dave Liddell
Luke Burch .199 .242 .224 26 .025 .313 1.7 8 -1.4 Brady Stewart
Josh Lester .209 .265 .353 63 .144 .269 3.2 1 -1.5 Felix Colon
Derek Hill .204 .260 .302 50 .098 .297 2.5 -2 -1.6 Michael McBryde
Jose Azocar .230 .252 .315 50 .085 .315 2.8 -2 -2.4 Jay Davis

 

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Matt Boyd L 29 10 10 4.37 31 31 173.0 163 84 28 51 193 3.94
Spencer Turnbull R 27 9 10 4.64 27 27 143.7 146 74 24 57 142 4.57
Michael Fulmer R 27 7 7 4.38 20 20 113.0 112 55 16 35 90 4.36
Matt Manning R 22 8 8 4.48 25 25 122.7 120 61 16 53 117 4.26
Daniel Norris L 27 7 8 4.74 30 27 131.0 138 69 19 46 117 4.33
Dario Agrazal R 25 8 9 4.99 28 27 140.7 163 78 24 27 93 4.65
Tarik Skubal L 23 7 8 4.83 26 26 119.3 114 64 21 51 123 4.69
Casey Mize R 23 5 6 4.70 21 21 97.7 105 51 16 26 75 4.57
Tyler Alexander L 25 8 10 5.16 31 24 150.0 175 86 30 27 115 4.79
Iván Nova R 33 8 10 5.02 27 27 148.7 172 83 31 34 100 5.23
Zack Godley R 30 7 8 4.92 28 17 113.3 114 62 17 50 105 4.60
Joey Wentz L 22 6 8 5.04 24 24 109.0 112 61 16 54 96 4.81
Joe Jiménez R 25 6 4 3.67 67 0 61.3 52 25 7 24 79 3.26
Jake Thompson R 26 7 9 5.25 28 19 109.7 115 64 18 53 88 5.16
Matt Hall L 26 5 6 5.16 37 15 113.3 118 65 17 54 106 4.69
Drew VerHagen R 29 6 7 5.14 36 14 103.3 112 59 17 36 84 4.74
Matt Moore L 31 7 9 5.40 30 21 133.3 145 80 25 50 118 4.97
Nick Ramirez L 30 5 5 4.60 42 3 78.3 79 40 10 35 64 4.55
Alex Lange R 24 7 10 5.36 27 20 102.3 111 61 13 60 75 5.12
Buck Farmer R 29 5 5 4.33 72 1 68.7 66 33 9 30 68 4.21
John Schreiber R 26 6 5 4.28 60 0 69.3 66 33 9 25 69 3.96
Alex Faedo R 24 6 8 5.47 23 23 108.7 122 66 25 32 93 5.34
Zac Houston R 25 4 4 4.45 43 1 56.7 51 28 6 33 61 4.15
Anthony Castro R 25 4 6 5.52 27 20 102.7 108 63 14 68 82 5.34
Tim Adleman R 32 6 8 5.57 22 19 106.7 116 66 23 36 88 5.35
Ethan DeCaster R 25 3 3 4.48 43 0 66.3 72 33 9 17 49 4.24
Will Vest R 25 4 4 4.42 38 0 53.0 54 26 5 23 41 4.16
Nolan Blackwood R 25 5 5 4.55 47 0 65.3 68 33 6 30 47 4.31
Rony Garcia R 22 7 10 5.68 25 24 117.3 136 74 20 49 86 5.18
Jordan Zimmermann R 34 6 8 5.68 22 22 111.0 131 70 24 26 81 5.23
Joe Navilhon R 26 4 4 4.95 38 2 60.0 65 33 10 18 49 4.61
Alex Wilson R 33 4 4 4.70 50 0 53.7 57 28 9 15 42 4.63
Drew Carlton R 24 3 4 4.75 48 0 66.3 71 35 11 20 50 4.73
Eduardo Jimenez R 25 3 4 4.74 50 0 62.7 66 33 8 26 46 4.62
Victor Alcantara R 27 3 3 4.96 57 2 65.3 70 36 8 29 43 4.79
Bryan Garcia R 25 2 2 4.75 48 0 47.3 45 25 7 23 49 4.49
Billy Lescher R 24 3 3 5.40 34 4 58.3 64 35 12 22 47 5.37
Kyle Funkhouser R 26 5 8 5.98 21 21 84.3 93 56 16 50 70 5.76
Ryan Carpenter L 29 6 10 5.99 22 21 109.7 131 73 25 34 83 5.56
Franklin Perez R 22 0 1 7.36 4 4 11.0 14 9 3 8 6 7.82
Austin D. Adams R 33 2 2 5.53 41 2 53.7 58 33 9 27 45 5.19
Jose Cisnero R 31 3 3 5.21 60 0 65.7 64 38 11 38 70 4.96
Gregory Soto L 25 3 4 5.25 69 0 61.7 61 36 8 46 56 5.29
Logan Shore R 25 4 6 6.22 21 16 85.3 105 59 18 34 46 6.04
David McKay R 25 2 3 5.45 54 0 67.7 65 41 14 38 81 5.16
Beau Burrows R 23 5 8 6.32 20 20 88.3 102 62 19 46 67 6.02
Edwin Jackson R 36 5 9 6.23 24 18 95.3 111 66 20 43 70 5.79
Matt Wotherspoon R 28 3 5 5.88 37 5 75.0 82 49 16 35 67 5.57
Zac Reininger R 27 4 5 5.74 57 4 80.0 93 51 14 35 56 5.37
Wladimir Pinto R 22 3 4 5.83 40 0 54.0 50 35 9 46 63 5.57
Trent Szkutnik L 26 2 4 6.24 41 5 70.7 83 49 16 32 52 6.01
Shao-Ching Chiang R 26 6 11 6.48 25 25 126.3 157 91 31 42 85 6.02
Jose Manuel Fernandez L 27 2 4 6.46 46 3 61.3 71 44 12 35 41 6.10
Spenser Watkins R 27 5 10 6.87 24 21 115.3 143 88 29 50 77 6.41
Sandy Baez R 26 3 6 7.55 29 12 76.3 97 64 23 40 52 7.31

 

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Matt Boyd 10.0 2.7 1.5 7.0% 26.4% .300 105 95 2.7 Bob Knepper
Spencer Turnbull 8.9 3.6 1.5 8.9% 22.2% .304 99 101 1.8 Ed Wojna
Michael Fulmer 7.2 2.8 1.3 7.2% 18.6% .285 105 95 1.7 Joe Horlen
Matt Manning 8.6 3.9 1.2 9.8% 21.7% .301 103 97 1.7 Mike Mills
Daniel Norris 8.0 3.2 1.3 8.0% 20.5% .308 97 103 1.5 Jimmy Anderson
Dario Agrazal 6.0 1.7 1.5 4.4% 15.2% .304 92 109 1.2 Rick Wise
Tarik Skubal 9.3 3.8 1.6 9.8% 23.6% .291 95 105 1.2 Bill Pulsipher
Casey Mize 6.9 2.4 1.5 6.2% 17.8% .297 98 102 1.1 Larry Dierker
Tyler Alexander 6.9 1.6 1.8 4.2% 17.7% .309 89 112 1.0 Bobby Livingston
Iván Nova 6.1 2.1 1.9 5.3% 15.5% .297 88 114 1.0 Bob Bruce
Zack Godley 8.3 4.0 1.4 10.0% 20.9% .299 93 107 1.0 Bob Bruce
Joey Wentz 7.9 4.5 1.3 11.0% 19.6% .301 91 110 0.9 Jerry Reuss
Joe Jiménez 11.6 3.5 1.0 9.2% 30.4% .308 125 80 0.9 Jay Robertson
Jake Thompson 7.2 4.3 1.5 10.7% 17.8% .294 87 114 0.6 Don Stanhouse
Matt Hall 8.4 4.3 1.4 10.6% 20.7% .309 89 112 0.6 Jake Chapman
Drew VerHagen 7.3 3.1 1.5 7.9% 18.5% .304 89 112 0.6 Tommie Sisk
Matt Moore 8.0 3.4 1.7 8.5% 20.0% .306 85 118 0.5 Kent Mercker
Nick Ramirez 7.4 4.0 1.1 10.1% 18.5% .295 100 100 0.5 Hal Woodeshick
Alex Lange 6.6 5.3 1.1 12.6% 15.7% .304 86 117 0.5 Mike Torrez
Buck Farmer 8.9 3.9 1.2 10.0% 22.7% .300 106 94 0.5 Ed Farmer
John Schreiber 9.0 3.2 1.2 8.4% 23.2% .298 107 93 0.4 Brandon League
Alex Faedo 7.7 2.7 2.1 6.7% 19.5% .301 84 119 0.4 Bob Tewksbury
Zac Houston 9.7 5.2 1.0 13.0% 24.0% .300 103 97 0.3 Clay Bryant
Anthony Castro 7.2 6.0 1.2 14.1% 17.0% .301 83 120 0.3 Mike Torrez
Tim Adleman 7.4 3.0 1.9 7.7% 18.7% .293 83 121 0.3 Ned Garver
Ethan DeCaster 6.6 2.3 1.2 5.9% 17.1% .303 103 97 0.3 Pedro Borbon
Will Vest 7.0 3.9 0.8 9.8% 17.4% .301 104 96 0.3 Ray Herbert
Nolan Blackwood 6.5 4.1 0.8 10.3% 16.1% .301 101 99 0.2 Tommie Sisk
Rony Garcia 6.6 3.8 1.5 9.2% 16.1% .311 81 124 0.2 Jake Joseph
Jordan Zimmermann 6.6 2.1 1.9 5.4% 16.7% .306 81 124 0.2 Tim Kester
Joe Navilhon 7.4 2.7 1.5 6.9% 18.7% .302 93 108 0.1 Casey Cox
Alex Wilson 7.0 2.5 1.5 6.5% 18.2% .294 98 102 0.1 Ron Taylor
Drew Carlton 6.8 2.7 1.5 6.9% 17.3% .294 97 103 0.1 Bill Castro
Eduardo Jimenez 6.6 3.7 1.1 9.4% 16.5% .297 97 103 0.1 Gary Ross
Victor Alcantara 5.9 4.0 1.1 9.9% 14.7% .295 93 108 0.1 Charlie Williams
Bryan Garcia 9.3 4.4 1.3 11.0% 23.4% .297 97 103 0.1 Casey Daigle
Billy Lescher 7.3 3.4 1.9 8.4% 18.0% .295 85 118 -0.1 Bo McLaughlin
Kyle Funkhouser 7.5 5.3 1.7 12.7% 17.7% .303 77 130 -0.1 Edwin Morel
Ryan Carpenter 6.8 2.8 2.1 6.9% 16.9% .308 77 130 -0.1 Dave Otto
Franklin Perez 4.9 6.5 2.5 14.8% 11.1% .297 62 160 -0.2 Mark Woodyard
Austin D. Adams 7.5 4.5 1.5 11.1% 18.4% .304 83 120 -0.2 Jerry Johnson
Jose Cisnero 9.6 5.2 1.5 12.7% 23.4% .301 88 113 -0.2 Jerry Johnson
Gregory Soto 8.2 6.7 1.2 15.8% 19.2% .298 87 114 -0.2 Marcelino Lopez
Logan Shore 4.9 3.6 1.9 8.7% 11.7% .300 74 135 -0.4 Mark Cahill
David McKay 10.8 5.1 1.9 12.5% 26.6% .302 84 119 -0.4 Eddy Rodriguez
Beau Burrows 6.8 4.7 1.9 11.2% 16.3% .303 73 137 -0.4 Jake Joseph
Edwin Jackson 6.6 4.1 1.9 9.9% 16.1% .303 74 136 -0.4 Vern Kennedy
Matt Wotherspoon 8.0 4.2 1.9 10.3% 19.6% .301 78 128 -0.4 Preston Larrison
Zac Reininger 6.3 3.9 1.6 9.6% 15.3% .307 80 125 -0.5 Chuck Crumpton
Wladimir Pinto 10.5 7.7 1.5 17.8% 24.4% .299 79 127 -0.6 Heathcliff Slocumb
Trent Szkutnik 6.6 4.1 2.0 9.8% 16.0% .302 74 136 -0.7 Doug Slaten
Shao-Ching Chiang 6.1 3.0 2.2 7.3% 14.8% .307 71 141 -0.8 Bill King
Jose Manuel Fernandez 6.0 5.1 1.8 12.1% 14.2% .299 71 140 -0.9 Brian Adams
Spenser Watkins 6.0 3.9 2.3 9.3% 14.3% .305 67 149 -1.2 Steve Stemle
Sandy Baez 6.1 4.7 2.7 11.0% 14.2% .302 61 164 -1.5 Kevin Vent

 

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

We hoped you liked reading 2020 ZiPS Projections: Detroit Tigers by Dan Szymborski!

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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sadtrombone
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sadtrombone

This graphics chart is the best.

playingwithfire
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Member
playingwithfire

I’m pretty sure it’s against the Geneva convention.