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“Scouts vs. stats” is an expression that boils a complex, gray issue into clear black-and-white sides,in a way that’s familiar to those who follow political media. In the reality of front-office decision-making, however, this “debate” has been settled for years and the obvious answer was always “both.”

In fact, the issue has moved past simply using both. Until recently, if one suggested that a club should move further toward one side at the expense of the other, anyone could shoot back with a counter example of recent success from the other end of the spectrum. That’s a bit harder do now: two years removed from the Royals’ latest World Series appearance and three years out from the 2010-2014 Giants run, there isn’t a current standard bearer for the traditional point of view, even if that’s just cyclical and I’m using a somewhat subjective label.

The final four clubs standing in each of 2016 and 2017 — the Astros, Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, Indians, and Yankees — would all rank among the top 10 of any industry poll of the league’s most progressive clubs. If you want to argue that their success is the result of variance, a blip, or mere coincidence, this development isn’t just the product of randomness. There’s an actual explanation. In these last two seasons, we’ve seen a fundamental change in the style of play (a greater emphasis on the air ball, quick hooks on starters, more aggressive bullpen usage, etc.) — particularly in the postseason. A progressive club, by definition, will adapt more quickly to such changes.

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It’s January, and the story of the offseason is that it’s actually lived up to its monicker. Outside of Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Otani’s respective moves to new teams essentially on the same day, MLB clubs have been in hibernation this winter. And so instead of evaluating trades or free-agent contracts, we’re left instead to ponder what is causing the inaction.

The potential culprits are numerous. If you’re inclined to see owners as evil profiteers, it’s easy to talk yourself into a collusion theory. Or this is the consequence of the Players Association accepting a luxury tax that might be acting as a de facto salary cap. Or maybe it’s just that every team has figured out that prices go down as spring training draws closer, so now everyone is trying the same wait-it-out game plan. Or maybe these particular free agents just aren’t that good. Or maybe it’s that next year’s free agents are too good.

Each of those theories seem to have some validity, and I think there’s probably a bit of most of that going on. But I think there’s also an explanation that makes everyone’s passivity perfectly rational: a lack of sufficient divisional competition to create the sort of pressure that justifies high-risk free-agent signings.

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There was a fear back in 2014 and 2015 that professional baseball was merely experiencing the early stages of a Tommy John epidemic.

There were concerns that sports specialization, the focus on velocity over feel for the craft, was stressing arms even before they arrived in the majors. It seemed possible that rising league-average velocity marks — for which there’s now a new record set each year — were creating demands on pitchers’ elbows that their bodies couldn’t withstand.

Tommy John surgeries reached a record level in 2014, a level surpassed again in 2015. Velocity kept inching up. Pitchers with medical histories and red flags kept flowing into the game via the draft. Said Pirates GM Neal Huntington to this former newspaperman in 2014:

“They were blown away by the number of significant injuries high school and college pitchers had this year compared to three years ago, five years ago. The level of injuries is growing exponentially,” Huntington said. “We are just starting to get to the front edge of this (Tommy John surgery) wave. We might not even be through the worst of this yet.”

That was not an encouraging sentiment from someone with a commanding view of the game. The wave of Tommy John surgeries did seem to have become an epidemic that was growing in strength, one which would cost both pitchers and teams millions upon millions of dollars.

And then a funny thing happened: the surgeries began to decline.

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When I talked to Brady Aiken in August, he claimed that he wasn’t concerned with his radar gun readings, nor was he worried about ”trying to please people with velocity.” He was just trying to get outs any way he could, “regardless of whether (he was) throwing 100 or throwing 80.”

Two years after the Indians drafted him in the first round — and two years post Tommy John surgery — Aiken spent his summer pumping low-octane gas. A heater that touched 96 in high school was now hovering in the high 80s, and only occasionally inching north of 90. Other numbers were a concern as well. The 21-year-old southpaw had a 4.77 ERA and walked 101 batters in 132 innings for low-A Lake County.

Aiken was amiable yet defensive when addressing his performance and his velocity. With the caveat that “everyone wants to throw hard,” he allowed that he’s not where he once was. And while he’s not sure what to expect going forward, he sees positives in what is hopefully a temporary backslide.

“I’ve had to learn to become more of a pitcher, because I can’t just blow balls by guys anymore,” said Aiken. “At this level, you’re also not facing high school or college guys — this is their job, and you have to be better at your job than they are at theirs. If you can command the ball well at 90-92 you should be able to find holes in bats, and be able to get outs.” Read the rest of this entry »

Each week, we publish in the neighborhood of 75 articles across our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
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After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
The Yankees’ roster, as presently constructed, is unusual. The prospective starting lineup features, on the one hand, two of this past season’s legitimately best players. It includes at least three others, however, who are projected for one or fewer wins in 2018. It doesn’t seem as though Brian Cashman et al. have specifically set out to assemble a stars-and-scrubs roster. That seems to have been the result so far, though.

The core of the offense, clearly, is formed by Aaron Judge (621 PA, 4.7 zWAR) and Giancarlo Stanton (593, 6.4). Dan Szymborski’s computer calls for that pair to record just over 11 wins together — as in, that’s the mean projected outcome, tempered by regression and aging and whatever. By comparison, consider: less than a third of clubs in 2017 featured teammates who produced observed combined win totals of 11 or greater. Four whole teams, in fact, failed to cross the 11-win threshold this past season. Judge and Stanton, in other words, represent a strong foundation for the offense.

What remains to be seen is how the club builds on that foundation. Greg Bird (372 PA, 1.1 zWAR), Ronald Torreyes (395, 0.1), and Miguel Andujar (576, 1.2) are, for now, the most likely Opening Day starters at first, second, and third base, respectively. They’re forecast for fewer than three wins between them. Bird’s modest wins projection is the result, in part, of a modest playing-time projection — not surprising for a player who’s recorded only 200 or so professional plate appearances over the last two seasons. As for Andujar and Torreyes, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to find them relegated to a bench role before the offseason is complete.

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While everyone waits for the thaw of the free-agent market, the Dodgers, Royals, and White Sox got together on a three-team trade Thursday evening.

The L.A. Times‘ Andy McCullough broke the news on the deal, as part of which the Royals send lefty reliever Scott Alexander to the Dodgers for prospects Erick Mejia and Trevor Oaks. The Dodgers ship lefty reliever Luis Avilan and $3 million to the White Sox. The Royals are also reportedly moving Joakim Soria and $1 million to the White Sox in something of a salary dump.

While there are quite a few moving parts, the focus within this post will be on Alexander, an interesting arm who could fill a need — and fill it cheaply — for one of the top clubs in baseball. Lefty reliever Tony Watson is a free agent, and the Dodgers are attempting to stay under the luxury tax. In giving up prospects and cash, the Dodgers must also feel Alexander is an upgrade over Avilan, who is projected to make $2.3 million in arbitration according to MLB Trade Rumors.

Alexander, a pre-arbitration arm with five years of control remaining, might not only fill a need cheaply for the next couple of seasons but also exceptionally well. While, on the one hand, the Dodgers are trading a lefty who misses bats, they’re also adding a lefty who might have more upside in today’s offensive environment.

In a year marked by fly balls, home runs, launch angles, and juiced balls, Alexander was, by some measures, the top ground-ball arm in the game in 2017. The approach led him to a 2.48 ERA, 3.23 FIP, and 56 ERA- last season over 69 innings. He emerged, quietly, as one of the better relievers in the game.

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Update: Please submit your application before Tuesday, January 23rd and 12:00 AM.

FanGraphs has grown tremendously these last few years, and we’re thrilled that you all have helped build this community into one of the best baseball hubs on the internet. And now, we’re growing again, as we’re looking to bring on another full-time writer to join our staff.

We’re looking for someone who is interested in publishing daily, covering the ins and outs of what is happening in Major League Baseball. Familiarity and comfort with the data here on FanGraphs is a requirement, but just as importantly, we’re looking for someone who asks interesting questions and then provides analysis or commentary around those questions.

This is a full-time salaried position with benefits. If you have a passion for writing about baseball and think you’d be a good fit with us, send us an email at wanted@fangraphs.com, and use the subject line “FanGraphs Full-Time Writer Application – 2018”; please ensure that is the subject so that we can keep all of the applications organized, and ensure yours does not slip through the cracks.

In your application, please include samples or links to work you’ve published previously, or some new original content that you feel best emphasizes your writing abilities and interests. You may also include a resume, but it is not required for the initial application.

As FanGraphs is a web-based business, relocation will not be required; this job can be completed from most geographic locations, as long as you have reliable internet access and are willing to work during the hours when people in the United States are awake.

If for some reason your application is unable to go through via the wanted@fangraphs.com e-mail address, please fill out a contact form with the same subject “FanGraphs Full-Time Writer Application – 2018” and you will be provided an alternate e-mail address to submit your application.

Everybody knows that next year’s crop of free agents is going to be spectacular. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado headline the class, of course, but Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel, and Andrew McCutchen will all be available, as well. Clayton Kershaw, meanwhile, will have the option of opting out of the final two years of his contract with the Dodgers. The collection of talent is impressive. The contracts they’re all likely to receive are expected to be equally so.

By contrast, the prospect “merely” of Yu Darvish, Eric Hosmer, and J.D. Martinez — that is, the top names of the 2017-18 offseason — isn’t as striking. Had things unfolded differently, however, this offseason would have facilitated a free-agent bonanza of its own.

The Dodgers and Yankees appear motivated to avoid the competitive-balance tax right now, but would they be doing so if Mike Trout were available? How about Jose Altuve or Paul Goldschmidt? This isn’t some fantasyland where every player is a free agent. If Altuve, Goldschmidt, and Trout hadn’t signed team-friendly contract extensions, all three would be free agents right now. They aren’t the only ones, either.

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Outside of Shohei Ohtani’s signing with the Los Angeles Angels and a number of deals involving relievers, it’s been a frigid start to free agency, particularly at the top of the class.

As of Jan. 3, Carlos Santana is the only player among Dave Cameron’s top-five free agents to have found a home so far this offseason. Of Cameron’s top-10 free agents, only three have signed. Of the top 20, just five. That’s a pretty unusual volume of transactions.

Consider that, as of this point last winter, 17 of FanGraphs’ top-20 free agents had signed. Nine of the top 10 had come to agreements with teams. In the winter of 2015-16, six of the top-10 free agents had signed by this point and 11 of the top 20.

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