Previous editions: AL East / AL Central / NL East.
The World Baseball Classic is in its final stages, meaning that both the end of spring training and the start of the regular season are in sight. We’d better get through the remaining installments in this series quickly.
There’s a revolution happening in the batting cage. We’ve noticed that batted-ball data is changing slightly and that hitters are saying different things about the intentions of their swings. But on the ground, where these hitters are training to improve, a few new tools have appeared that are helping those hitters to realize their intentions with better results. Those tools make a link between hitting and pitching that may open our eyes to the possibility of better development practices in both places.
Last year, only one team improved their exit velocity in the second half as much as the Brewers did, when they went from 17th in the league to fifth. That might not surprise you, because you’ve read often about the young power duo on that team — Keon Broxton and Domingo Santana — and those two were at their healthiest and most dynamic in the second half. And yet the team was 20th in park- and league-adjusted weighted run creation during that same period. There’s always something else that requires attention, both players agreed in camp this week.
In the Orioles’ opening game last season, Mark Trumbo stole a base. It was his first stolen base since 2014, but anyway, as of that point in time, the Orioles had one steal, and the Brewers had zero steals. The Orioles would hold that 1-0 advantage until April 8, when Keon Broxton stole a bag. The teams remained tied until April 12, when Ryan Flaherty put the Orioles back in front 2-1. That held until April 15, when the Brewers got steals from Broxton, Jonathan Villar, and Aaron Hill. At that point, the Brewers surged ahead, and they never looked back. The gap would shortly reach double digits.
At the end of this post, I’m going to ask you a question about steals. There are no stakes, and this isn’t even all that important. While the Brewers are more athletic than the Orioles are, the Orioles are better than the Brewers are, and that’s the way the Orioles like it. So, don’t think too hard. But you’re probably going to have to think a little bit. And, given the question, even that much is ridiculous.
Here’s the thing about bunting: it can be a good idea if the third baseman is playing too far back. The chance of a hit goes up in that case, and a successful bunt often causes the third baseman to play more shallow in future plate appearances, so future balls in play receive a benefit. That’s one of those games within a game we see all the time in baseball: once the positioning deviates from “normal” by a certain degree, the batter receives a benefit. Then the defender has to change his approach.
This tension created by the bunt illustrates how offenses and defenses react to each other’s tendencies. That same sort of balance between fielder and hitter might be playing out on an even broader scale, however, when it comes to the shift in general.
Too many shifts in the game, and the players begin to adjust. They develop more of a two-strike approach, they find a way to put the ball in play on the ground the other way, or they make sure that they lift the ball if they’re going to pull it. There’s evidence that players are already working on lifting the ball more as a group, pulling the ball in the air more often than they have in five years, and have improved on hitting opposite-field ground balls. So maybe this next table is no surprise.
| Year | Shift wOBABIP | No Shift wOBABIP |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 0.280 | 0.294 |
| 2014 | 0.288 | 0.294 |
| 2015 | 0.286 | 0.291 |
| 2016 | 0.292 | 0.297 |
The league has improved against the shift! The shift is dead! Or, wait: the league has actually improved as a whole over this timeframe, and the difference between the two is still about the same. And every team would take a .292 wOBA against over a .297 number. Long live the shift.
It’s exciting to have so many statistics available to us when we’re trying to evaluate our favorite players. From the players’ perspective, though, it’s probably more exciting when those statistics allow them to improve themselves. From that point of view, metrics like launch angle and spin rate probably have a certain appeal that some others don’t: they provide a measurement of something that might help a player understand his game and get better.
There’s one problem, though — with spin rate, at least. Indications are that it’s difficult for a pitcher to change his in any material way. Still, as Jeremy Jeffress may have found, it can provide a window into betterment.
The bad news is that we have the Padres projected for baseball’s worst record. The good news is that’s not really surprising to the Padres, and Keith Law recently ranked their farm system at No. 3. They tried the whole go-for-it thing, and it blew up, so they reversed course. To this point, it’s gone well, and probably better than was expected. You can look at the Padres and see how they could eventually return to being competitive.
What that doesn’t mean is that the rebuild is complete. The Padres will have more selling to do, and as I look at their roster, I see a team poised to do one of the things the Brewers have done. Milwaukee has done well to sell off parts of its bullpen, bringing real prospect value back in exchange for Jeremy Jeffress, Will Smith, and Tyler Thornburg. They’re all effective pitchers, but they don’t mean much to a could-be cellar-dweller. You might know the Padres for having a suspect pitching staff, but the bullpen should be of considerable interest. And if events go well enough, then come July, the Padres might end up in charge of the late-inning reliever market.
“I’m a completely different hitter from each side of the plate,” Hank Conger told me one time. He went on to describe how he had more loft in his swing from one side. Switch-hitter Billy Burns said about the same thing, speculating that his relative lack of experience hitting from the left side was the cause for his lack of power on contact from that side. “My muscles aren’t as strong there,” he told me in July of 2015. Even if a player is capable of hitting — even hitting well — from both sides of the plate, that doesn’t mean he’s the same type of hitter from both sides. Subtle differences are bound to be present.
All of this may explain a strange thing that happened to Jonathan Villar last year.
Over 450 innings into his major-league career, Kyle Hendricks possesses both an ERA under 3.00 and a third-place finish in Cy Young voting. That’s impressive. Even after accounting for the regression he’s likely to experience in the future, he’s nevertheless proven himself to be an apt pitcher at the major-league level, something that we didn’t see coming as he ascended the ranks as a prospect. He’s done enough to wonder why we missed on him, and what he can teach us about other young pitchers out there.
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Milwaukee Brewers farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen
The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell
Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)
| Rk | Name | Age | Highest Level | Position | ETA | FV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lewis Brinson | 22 | AAA | CF | 2017 | 60 |
| 2 | Corey Ray | 22 | A+ | OF | 2018 | 60 |
| 3 | Luis Ortiz | 21 | AA | RHP | 2018 | 55 |
| 4 | Isan Diaz | 20 | A | 2B | 2019 | 55 |
| 5 | Josh Hader | 22 | AAA | LHP | 2017 | 55 |
| 6 | Brandon Woodruff | 23 | AA | RHP | 2017 | 50 |
| 7 | Lucas Erceg | 21 | A | 3B | 2019 | 50 |
| 8 | Marcos Diplan | 20 | A+ | RHP | 2018 | 50 |
| 9 | Trent Clark | 20 | A | OF | 2020 | 45 |
| 10 | Mauricio Dubon | 22 | AA | SS | 2017 | 45 |
| 11 | Phil Bickford | 21 | A+ | RHP | 2019 | 45 |
| 12 | Ryan Cordell | 24 | AA | OF | 2017 | 45 |
| 13 | Jorge Lopez | 23 | MLB | RHP | 2017 | 45 |
| 14 | Cody Ponce | 22 | A+ | RHP | 2018 | 45 |
| 15 | Brett Phillips | 22 | AA | OF | 2018 | 45 |
| 16 | Monte Harrison | 21 | A | RF | 2020 | 40 |
| 17 | Gilbert Lara | 19 | R | SS | 2021 | 40 |
| 18 | Corbin Burnes | 22 | A | RHP | 2019 | 40 |
| 19 | Kodi Medeiros | 20 | A+ | LHP | 2019 | 40 |
| 20 | Devin Williams | 22 | A+ | RHP | 2018 | 40 |
| 21 | Demi Orimoloye | 20 | R | OF | 2022 | 40 |
| 22 | Jacob Nottingham | 21 | AA | C/1B | 2018 | 40 |
| 23 | Freddy Peralta | 20 | A+ | RHP | 2019 | 40 |
| 24 | Mario Feliciano | 18 | R | C | 2021 | 40 |
| 25 | Damien Magnifico | 25 | MLB | RHP | 2017 | 40 |
60 FV Prospects
| Age | 23 | Height | 6’3 | Weight | 170 | Bat/Throw | R/R |
|---|
| Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40/50 | 60/60 | 50/60 | 60/60 | 50/55 | 60/60 |
Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .382/.387/.618 at Triple-A Colorado Springs after trade.
Scouting Report
A physical freak who has undergone a half-decade of physical growth and mechanical adjustments to reach the doorstep of the majors, Brinson headlined the package sent to Milwaukee for Jonathan Lucroy ahead of the trade deadline. He had been struggling through the first few months of the season and missed several weeks with a shoulder injury. Injuries have been a prevalent aspect of Brinson’s pro career and he’s missed substantial playing time during each of the last three years with various ailments, including quad and hamstring issues.