Archive for Teams

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Pittsburgh Pirates farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH (stats-only) statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. *This post was updated with prospects acquired in various offseason trades (McCutchen, Cole) after its initial publication*

60 FV Prospects

Aside from a May back injury that sidelined him for a month, Keller had a successful 2017 and reached Double-A in August. He struck out 116 hitters in 116 innings, against just 32 walks, while continuing his career-long avoidance of the home run. He has surrendered just 13 homers in 317 career innings. The foundation of Keller’s profile is grounded in his fastball and fastball command. He was throwing only in the upper 80s the fall before his senior year of high school, but Keller’s velocity began to increase as the draft approached, and it has continued to do so. His fastball now sits 93-96 and touches 97.

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After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

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The Brewers entered the 2017 campaign, in theory, as a rebuilding club. Between 2015 and -16, the organization had traded Khris Davis, Mike Fiers, Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, and Jean Segura, all of whom had served as regulars for the team. In their place emerged a collection largely of unproven, if promising, talent — but not one, it seemed, designed to compete in a division that also featured the defending world champions.

What happened instead is Milwaukee led the NL Central into late July and missed a Wild Card slot by a mere game. The club’s position players ranked 17th in the league by WAR, which seemed improbable after the exodus of talent.

The successful 2017 team, however, doesn’t necessarily represent a baseline for the 2018 one. While one might expect the projections for the next iteration of the Brewers to reflect a club prepared to take another leap forward, that’s not what one finds here. Only two players, Domingo Santana (566 PA, 2.3 zWAR) and Travis Shaw (573, 2.7), are forecast by Dan Szymborski’s computer to transcend the two-win threshold. Meanwhile, both of the club’s starting middle infielders, Orlando Arcia (599, 1.4) and Jonathan Villar (526, 1.0), profile as something more like useful part-time players than first-division regulars.

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Dick Enberg died on Thursday, at the age 82, in La Jolla, California. His roots were in Michigan. Born in Mount Clemens, Enberg lived on a farm in Amada and attended college in Mount Pleasant. He went on to cultivate an inimitable broadcast style and become known to sports fans everywhere.

To say that Enberg reached the pinnacle of the profession would be an understatement. He called some of the biggest games in college basketball history, several Super Bowls, and more than two dozen Wimbledons. As the voice of the California Angels, and later the San Diego Padres, he was behind the microphone for nine no-hitters. Two years ago, the Baseball Hall of Fame honored him with the Ford C. Frick Award for broadcasting excellence.

Enberg was reportedly as good of a person as he was a broadcaster and based on my brief interactions with him that’s certainly true. When I first met Enberg, we spoke of our shared Finnish heritage and small town Michigan upbringings. He couldn’t have been more congenial. I recall walking away impressed that a legend could be so humble.

It is by no means hyperbolic to call Enberg a legend. Here is what two of the best broadcasters in the business had to say when I asked them about his passing.

Len Kasper, Chicago Cubs: “I was very saddened to see the news. Dick was one of the first big time national sportscasters I remember hearing as a kid. I took a special interest in his work because he went to Central Michigan University, just a few miles from where I grew up. I was fortunate to get to know him a little bit when he joined the Padres TV booth and we had several great conversations. The word iconic gets thrown around lazily in our business, but if Dick Enberg wasn’t an iconic broadcaster, I don’t know who was. I will throw out one other thing. His tennis work was totally underrated. I watched a ton of it in the ‘80s and ‘90s and he was the #1 voice of THAT sport too! He did everything! Versatile, knowledgeable, understated, he had everything you’d want in a national broadcaster.” Read the rest of this entry »

The Diamondbacks want to build a stronger bullpen, but they say they don’t have much money to spend. As such, instead of talking to Wade Davis or Greg Holland, the club added Brad Boxberger. And now, the club has also added 33-year-old Japanese closer Yoshihisa Hirano, the terms set at two years and $6 million. That’s a little steeper than the two years and $4 million given by the Rangers to Chris Martin, who’s also coming over from Japan. Martin is younger and has been better more recently, but Hirano is more decorated.

Having spent his whole career with the Orix Buffaloes, Hirano has 156 saves to his name. He converted to relief full-time in 2010, and he became a closer full-time in 2013. It’s possible he could close for Arizona. It’s possible Boxberger could close. It’s possible Archie Bradley could close. Maybe all of them will close! I don’t know how it’ll work out, and the Diamondbacks themselves probably don’t know how it’ll work out, but Hirano will get important innings regardless. What does the righty have to offer? It just so happens he faced Nolan Arenado in the most recent WBC. Hirano threw three pitches and got a strikeout. The at-bat opened with a slider:

Then there was a splitter:

Then there was a fastball:

That’s Hirano. Get-me-over breaking ball, mid-80s splitter, low-90s fastball. The slider, he doesn’t throw very much. The splitter is his signature. Or, if you prefer, forkball. I’m not going to pretend to be able to tell them apart. Effectively, there’s no difference. Last year, in Japan, Hirano threw the highest rate of splitters out of all pitchers. We’re talking a little more than two-fifths of his pitches.

Hirano has dominance in his history. Even last year, he had a sub-3 ERA, which followed a year with a sub-2 ERA. But Hirano might’ve been at his best in 2013. You can’t look at his numbers without noticing the following:

Hirano’s strikeout rate has plummeted, which is never a good thing for a pitcher. It’s not what any front office would want to see. On the more encouraging side, though, Hirano hasn’t lost any zip. There exists pitch-tracking data in Japan for the past four years, and Hirano’s fastball and splitter have maintained basically the same velocities. He’s throwing the same pitches he used to. So he could get back to his old level of performance. And there exists a belief he could benefit from the American baseball.

Koji Uehara would be an easy comparison here, and his strikeout rate got better after coming to the States. Masahiro Tanaka and Hisashi Iwakuma also generated strikeout-rate upticks. And I might as well note that, while Seung Hwan Oh doesn’t lean on a splitter, he had a fantastic rookie season in the majors. His last year in Japan, Oh had a K-BB% of 17%. His first year in the majors, it was 27%. Now, Oh also had a much rougher sophomore campaign, but when he signed with the Cardinals, he, too, looked like he could be declining. Instead, he was initially terrific. The Diamondbacks are making a modest bet on Hirano’s stuff staying the same, and his splitter playing up.

Uehara has had an outstanding major-league career, throwing fastballs and splitters with a little less zip. He also, however, appears to command the ball better than Hirano does. Edward Mujica would be a lesser potential outcome. Even he had his uses. Hirano doesn’t seem to be at his peak, and the Diamondbacks won’t look for him to be their savior. But if Hirano likes the ball, there’s a chance he could be a major first-half surprise. The fastball/splitter combination has been proven to work, provided they’re thrown right. Hirano hasn’t lost his arm strength.

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

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Dodger field players recorded the second-most WAR collectively in the majors this past season, and all but one (Chase Utley) of the club’s top-13 players from 2017 remains under contract for 2018. Unsurprisingly, the projections below are almost uniformly strong.

Both first baseman Cody Bellinger (607 PA, 4.4 zWAR) and shortstop Corey Seager (666, 5.7) remain subject to a Young Driver Surcharge when patronizing any of this country’s major rental-car providers. When not busy securing dependable transportation at a competitive rate, however, they occupy their time creating runs as professional ballplayers. ZiPS calls for that pair to produce roughly 10 wins just between the two of them in 2018.

If one is intent on identifying a weakness — or at least an uncertainty — within the depth chart, then left field appears to be the best candidate. Joc Pederson (475, 2.4) was optioned to Triple-A in mid-August and absent from much of the postseason, raising some questions about his job security with the present iteration of the club. Even he is forecast to produce wins at an above-average rate, however.

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Over the course of a few days during the winter meetings, it seemed like all that was happening was that free-agent relievers were signing multiyear contracts. And not just multiyear contracts — reasonably expensive multiyear contracts. Both Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw got three years. An incomplete selection of the relievers who got two: Brandon Morrow, Tommy Hunter, Juan Nicasio, Joe Smith, Anthony Swarzak, Steve Cishek, and Pat Neshek. These are all good pitchers. They deserve what they’ve gotten. But people are still relatively unaccustomed to seeing non-closers get $8 million a year. This is the bullpen age, indeed.

As the run on relievers was taking place, a common refrain was that teams were looking to sign the next Brandon Morrow, or the next Anthony Swarzak. Not that Morrow or Swarzak didn’t still get their money, but neither was considered valuable a year ago. They popped up, almost out of nowhere, and they became deadly weapons. So, teams figure, why wouldn’t there be other pop-up relievers? Why spend so much on a guy if you think you can find the next bullpen breakthrough?

Every team is looking for the next pop-up. It’s not easy to spot success before success. The Rangers think they have someone in Chris Martin, and I wrote about him, but he’s been terrific in Japan. It’s a different sort of gamble. Wily Peralta and Yovani Gallardo have signed with the Royals and Brewers, respectively, but they might still start. I don’t know if they’re necessarily considered the same kind of pop-up targets. This all leads me to Tom Koehler. I wanted to find a pitcher who’s been identified as a potential next Swarzak or Morrow. The Dodgers signed Koehler for $2 million, and if he hits all his incentives as a reliever, the salary tops out at $2.95 million. He’s under control for 2019, and the Dodgers see him in the bullpen.

Koehler, this past season, was bad. He had an ERA of almost 7. The bulk of his career has been spent as a starter, and there’s a perfectly good chance his 2018 goes off the rails. And yet the Dodgers think they might see something, something that could handle high-leverage situations. What is it the Dodgers are thinking? I’d like to give it my best guess.

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The Indians have their Carlos Santana replacement.

On Thursday evening, Cleveland agreed to a two-year, $16 million deal with air-ball revolution poster boy Yonder Alonso. The contract includes an option for a third season.

There were a number of potential first-base fits for Cleveland in a deep class that included other left-handed options like Matt Adams (who reached a one-year, $4 million deal with Nationals), Mitch Moreland (two years, $13 million with Red Sox) Lucas Duda, and Logan Morrison. Eric Hosmer’s ask, and perhaps inconsistency, likely pushed him out of consideration for the club.

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Tom Hackimer loves Driveline, uses a Motus Sleeve, and is one class short of earning a physics degree from St. John’s University. In other words, Minnesota’s 2016 fourth-round pick is a pitching nerd. He’s also an intriguing prospect. In 43 relief appearances this past season, the sidearming 5-foot-11 right-hander logged a 1.76 ERA and 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings between Low-A Cedar Rapids and High-A Fort Myers. He followed that up with a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League.

Hackimer discussed his scientific and methodical approach, which includes slow-motion video and the modeling of his motion after Joe Smith’s, earlier this month.

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Tom Hackimer on being a pitching nerd: “Before I knew that I was going to be any good in baseball, I thought I would go to grad school and get a degree in civil engineering. I like to build things. That seemed like a logical step, as civil engineering would be building things on a bigger scale, such as bridges. I’ve always thought that would be cool.

“As it pertains to baseball… I try to build things that will help me. My senior year of college, I built sort of a pitch-tunneling device. At least that’s what it was in theory. It was basically a window that I could change the height of. I put it 20 feet in front of the mound and would work on throwing all of my pitches through it, wanting them look the same all the way up to that point, at least.

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The Nationals just used Adam Lind as a bat-first, left-handed first baseman and bench bat. Lind turned in a 127 wRC+ against righties. His career wRC+, overall, is 111. Against righties, it’s 126, and against lefties, it’s 56. The Nationals turned down Lind’s $5-million option for 2018, making him a free agent. There was a $0.5-million buyout, meaning it was basically a $4.5-million decision.

The Nationals have now signed Matt Adams as a bat-first, left-handed first baseman and bench bat. It’s a $4-million deal, with an additional $0.5 million in incentives. In other words, it could be a $4.5-million decision. Adams just turned in a 126 wRC+ against righties. His career wRC+, overall, is 111. Against righties, it’s 123, and against lefties, it’s 58. Matt Adams is…this is the same profile. Basically the same profile for basically the same money. The Nationals dropped Adam Lind to pick up another Adam Lind. The one upside about Adams is that he’s five years Lind’s junior. I assume that’s what made the difference, even though Lind was already the familiar one. Smart business. Tough business.

There’s not much that needs to be said about a part-time player. It’s certainly funny that Adams has the same career wRC+ as Eric Hosmer, given their divergent contract expectations, but Hosmer has been better lately, and Adams needs to be strictly platooned. Hosmer, as you could imagine, projects to be better moving forward. Still, I want to highlight one aspect of the comparison. Hosmer and Adams are both first basemen. How about their defense?

Hosmer has a very good defensive reputation. He’s won four Gold Gloves, and he has a 57 overall rating in the historical Fan Scouting Reports. Since 2011, 39 different players have played at least 2,500 innings at first base. Hosmer’s rating is tied for fifth-best, with Anthony Rizzo and Mark Teixeira.

Adams does not have a very good defensive reputation. He was briefly tried in the outfield, but the less said about that, the better. He’s never won a Gold Glove, and he has a 37 overall rating in the historical Fan Scouting Reports. That rating is tied for 27th-best, or 12th-worst. The fans think that Adams has been below average. He definitely lacks Hosmer’s general athleticism.

And yet! If you sort by DRS over a common denominator, Adams ranks eighth, and Hosmer ranks 30th. If you sort by UZR over a common denominator, Adams ranks 10th, and Hosmer ranks 33rd. If you blend the two, then Adams ranks 10th, and Hosmer ranks 32nd. According to the advanced defensive numbers, there’s a significant difference between Matt Adams and Eric Hosmer, in Adams’ favor. He rates as the better defensive first baseman. Against what I assume would be all odds.

I’m not saying that anything is gospel. There are legitimate complaints about the advanced defensive metrics these days, in particular among infielders. We can’t just outright dismiss the eye test, and we can’t dismiss that the baseball industry holds Hosmer’s first-base defense in such high regard. But still, after all this time, there’s an explanation that’s missing. The best numbers we have say that Adams is considerably better than Hosmer is. The numbers are far from perfect, yet they also can’t be trashed. Perception is a hell of a thing.

Anyway, Adams will be a backup, behind Ryan Zimmerman. He will probably be fine.

According to reports, the Brewers are working to sign Jhoulys Chacin to a two-year contract worth about $16 million. Chacin isn’t great. The Brewers are coming off a surprising season, but they don’t look as good as the Cubs or the Cardinals. The Chacin terms are similar to the terms for Tommy Hunter, or Juan Nicasio, or Pat Neshek, or Joe Smith, or Anthony Swarzak. Chacin’s primary job will probably be to just help keep the rotation afloat while everyone awaits the return of Jimmy Nelson. These aren’t earth-shattering developments taking place.

With that being said, let me tell you why I think this is interesting. Even just looking at this simply, Chacin turns only 30 in January, and he just made 32 starts, with a sub-4 ERA. He’s been about a league-average starter two years in a row, which makes this a perfectly solid investment. Without digging in the least, you can see why the Brewers wanted to do this. Still, there’s further upside to try to mine. The Brewers would be happy if Chacin just pitched like Chacin, but I imagine they see something better than that.

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